Wu Sino US Inadvertent Escalation - Program on Strategic Stability ...


Wu Sino US Inadvertent Escalation - Program on Strategic Stability ...

use of sea within the first island chain. The United States has to face and accept the

reality. It could do otherwise, but it would be very difficult, expensive, and


Pursuing modest strategic objective is a natural result of accepting mutual

vulnerability with China.

U.S. military argues that Air-Sea Battle (ASB) is not a strategy, not a war plan, is

just an operational concept designed to improve Navy and Air Force interoperability.

But critics argue that ASB has become a “strategy of tactics.”


“The ASB Concept

seeks to ensure freedom of action in the global commons.”


seeking a decisive

victory against China.

Alternative: maritime denial


Offshore control


War-at-sea strategy


The same logic applies to China.

4.4 Declaratory policy

NFU helps.

China considers conventional attacks on nuclear weapons or nuclear facilities as

nuclear attacks.

4.5 Avoid ong>Sinoong>-U.S. conflict

Undoubtedly, the best way to avoid ong>Sinoong>-U.S. nuclear escalation is to avoid

ong>Sinoong>-U.S. conventional conflict. 60

China is rising as a regional, rather than global, power. 61

U.S. constrains its allies’ provocative actions. Hujiahuwei (the fox assuming the

majesty of the tiger)

China’s assertiveness.


! 55 J. Noel Williams, “Air-Sea Battle: An operational concept looking for a strategy,” Armed Forces Journal,

September 2011, http://armedforcesjournal.com/2011/09/7558138/.

! 56 U.S. Air-Sea Battle Office, Air-Sea Battle: Service Collaboration to Address Anti-Access & Area Denial

Challenges, May 2013, p. 4.

! 57 Raoul Heinrichs, “America’s Dangerous Battle Plan,” The Diplomat, August 17, 2011, http://thediplomat.com/


! 58 T.X. Hammes, “Offshore Control: A Proposed Strategy for an Unlikely Conflict,” Strategic Forum, No. 278,

June 2012.

! 59 Jeffrey E. Kline and Wayne P. Hughes Jr., “Between Peace and the Air-Sea Battle: A War at Sea Strategy,”

Naval War College Review, Vol. 65, No. 4 (Autumn 2012), pp. 35-40.

! 60 Bonnie S. Glaser, “Armed Clash in the South China Sea,” Contingency Planning Memorandum No. 14, Council

on Foreign Relations, April 2012.

! 61 Amitai Etzioni, “Who Authorized Preparations for War with China?” Yale Journal of International Affairs,

(Summer 2013), pp. 37-51. Amitai Etzioni, “Accommodating China,” Survival, Vol. 55, No. 2, (April/May 2013),

pp. 45-60.

! 62 Alastair Iain Johnston, “How New and Assertive Is China’s New Assertiveness?” International Security, Vol.

37, No. 4 (Spring 2013), pp. 7-48.

! 15

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