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INDIA

28 April 2012

Road Infrastructure

Q4FY12 Result Preview

Siddhartha Khemka

siddhartha.khemka@centrum.co.in

+91 22 4215 9857

Manish Kayal

manish.kayal@centrum.co.in

+91 22 4215 9313

Competitive intensity likely to continue

FY12 ended with NHAI awarding 6,491Km (highest ever).

We believe, the momentum will continue in FY13 & FY14

and hence the intense competition to persist. Issues

faced by developers on financial closure, land

acquisition, etc could dampen FY13 & FY14 execution.

For Q4FY12, we expect the companies in our coverage to

post revenue growth of 18.7% QoQ but a decline of 6.3%

YoY and EBITDA growth of 6.7% QoQ, primarily driven

by robust performance of Sadbhav Engineering.

However, net profit is likely to increase 7.8% and 9.0%

both YoY and QoQ respectively. We maintain our

preference for diversified players like ITNL (IL&FS

Transportation Network), and remain neutral on IRB (IRB

Infrastructure) and Sadhabav Engineering. With this

update we are transferring the coverage of road

developers from Manish Kayal to Siddhartha Khemka.

FY12 NHAI award at all time high of 6,491kms: NHAI

closed FY12 registering a growth of 28.3% in road

projects with awards totaling 6,491kms (vs. our

expectation of 6,080kms) across 49 projects. Including

project awards from State authorities and MoRTH, a

total of 62 projects totaling to 7,957kms were awarded

during FY12. For FY13, the target for new road projects

has been set at 8,800kms (a 10.6% YoY growth). We

expect the momentum to continue in FY13 with the

award of 7,300kms by NHAI.

However, competitive intensity remains and

continues to dent profitability: We maintain our

stance held since sector initiation that the competitive

intensity in the road development sector will remain

going forward denting project level IRRs. We still

observe 25-30 bidders at RFQ stage and 10-15 bidders

at financial bidding level. Though, smaller players are

facing difficulties (like financial closure issues, stretched

balance sheet, CDR, etc), we believe the entrance of

new players, especially large corporate groups like

Welspun-Leighton, Ashok Piramal Group, Essel Infra will

continue to maintain high competitive intensity.

Coverage companies Sadbhav Engg and ITNL bag

projects in the quarter: Sadbhav Engg bagged 2 NHAI

projects 1) Solapur – Bijapur (110Km, TPC Rs12.2bn) and

2) Gomati ka Chouraha to Udaipur (82Km, TPC

Rs12.8bn). ITNL also bagged 2 projects namely 1)

Kiritpur to Ner Chowk (113Km, TPC Rs18.1bn) and 2)

Kharagpur to Baleshwar (119Km, TPC Rs4.7bn). We

believe Gomati-Udaipur project bagged by Sadbhav is

risky because there are parallel stretches owned by GMR

on the right side (NH8) and L&T on the left side.

Price Performance* (%)

1M 6M 1Yr

ITNL 3.6 (5.0) (14.2)

IRB Infra (5.7) 3.1 (14.7)

Sadbhav (7.8) 5.5 3.2

NIFTY (1.0) (0.3) (11.1)

Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Research

Recommendation Summary

Rating Target (Rs) Upside (%)

ITNL Buy 241 26.2

IRB Infra Hold 178 6.0

Sadbhav Hold 151 6.3

* as on 26th April 2012

Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Research

Summary Financials

Y/E Mar Net Sales (Rsmn) EBITDA (Rsmn) EBITDA Margin (%) Adj. PAT (Rsmn)

(Rsmn) Q4FY12E YoY (%) QoQ (%) FY12E Q4FY12E YoY (%) QoQ (%) FY12E Q4FY12E Q4FY11 Q4FY12E YoY (%) QoQ (%) FY12E

ITNL 15,600 (5.8) 23.0 51,771 3,430 (16.5) 7.0 13,516 22.0 24.8 1,090 (18.2) 24.1 4,240

IRB Infra 6,927 (9.7) (7.1) 29,754 3,410 8.4 (0.2) 13,336 49.2 41.0 1,148 25.8 (9.1) 5,017

Sadbhav Eng* 9,975 (4.7) 37.8 27,645 1,027 12.8 36.5 17,786 10.3 8.7 550 61.1 31.9 16,363

Total / Avg. 32,502 (6.3) 18.7 109,170 7,867 (3.6) 6.7 44,639 24.2 23.5 2,788 7.8 9.0 25,619

#- Standalone results;

Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

Please refer to important disclosures/disclaimers in Appendix A

Centrum Equity Research is available on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and FactSet


IL&FS Transportation Network (Buy; Target Price: Rs241)

ITNL’s consolidated revenue is expected to decline 5.8% YoY to Rs15.6bn, which is however a

growth of 23.0% QoQ. Within the standalone business, both construction and Toll/Annuity

revenues are likely to decline, while Elsamex revenue is expected to remain flat.

EBITDA is also expected to decline 16.5% YoY to Rs3.4bn, (but grow 7.0% QoQ). Margins are

expected to contract 282 bps to 22.0%, driven by contraction in high margin fee income.

Net profit at Rs1,090mn for Q4 is expected to decline 18.2% YoY led by increase in depreciation

and dip in other income, dragging down the overall PAT.

During the quarter, ITNL bagged 2 NHAI projects and 1 Rajasthan PWD project namely 1)

Kiritpur to Ner Chowk (113Km, TPC Rs18.2bn) 2) Kharagpur to Baleshwar (119Km, TPC Rs4.7bn)

and 3) Sikar to Bikaner, Rajasthan (TPC Rs6.5bn).

IRB Infrastructure Developers (Hold; Target Price: Rs178)

We expect IRB’s Q4FY12 revenues to decline by 9.7% YoY and 7.1% QoQ to Rs6.9bn, largely led

by decline in EPC business revenues. Completion of two projects (Surat-Dahisar and IRDP

Kolhapur) during FY12 has led to the decline in EPC revenues but would lead to increase in BOT

revenues with the start of toll collection.

However, operating profit is expected to increase 8.4% YoY to Rs3.4bn with sharp improvement

in operating margin to 49.2% on the back of increased contribution from high-margin BOT

business.

Net profit is expected to increase by 25.8% YoY to Rs1,148mn and net margins by 468bp YoY to

16.6%. Though we expect higher depreciation and interest costs to impact profitability, a lower

tax rate (due to availing MAT credit during FY12) is likely to help boost PAT.

During the quarter, the company achieved the financial closure of its Ahmedabad-Vododara

project by tying up of Project finance of Rs33bn. The total cost of the project is Rs48.8bn, of

which the equity contribution would be Rs15.8bn and the rest is through debt of Rs.33bn

(Rs11bn as ECB and Rs22bn as rupee term loan). The weighted average blended cost of this

debt is 10.5%.

Sadbhav Engineering (Hold; Target Price: Rs151)

Sadbhav Engineering’s standalone revenue is expected to decline 4.7% YoY to Rs9.98bn, which

however would result in a 37.8% QoQ jump sequentially. With the help of outsourcing some

projects, the pace of execution in roads and irrigation projects has improved over the last few

quarters and we expect the increased level of execution trend to continue.

Operating profit is expected to increase by 12.8% YoY to Rs1.03bn and operating margin by

160bp YoY to 10.3% on the back of lower costs and increased outsourcing.

Net profit is likely to jump 61.1% YoY to Rs550mn, on higher other income, lower interest costs

and lower tax rate. Net margin in effect is likely to expand 225pp YoY to 5.5% vs. 3.3% last year.

During Q4, Sadbhav bagged 2 NHAI projects 1) Solapur – Bijapur (110Km, TPC Rs12.2bn) and 2)

Gomati ka Chouraha to Udaipur (82Km, TPC Rs12.8bn). However, we believe Gomati-Udaipur

project bagged is risky because there are parallel stretches on either side being developed by

GMR on the right side (NH8) and L&T on the left side.

Exhibit 1: Summary valuations

Y/E Mar

Target CMP (Rs) Mkt Cap EPS (Rs) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoCE (%)

(Rsmn) Rating Price (Rs) (26-Apr-12) (Rsmn) FY11 FY12E FY13E FY11 FY12E FY13E FY11 FY12E FY13E FY11 FY12E FY13E

ITNL Buy 241 191 37,105 22.3 22.0 25.6 8.6 8.7 7.4 7.5 8.6 9.8 16.4 13.1 11.0

IRB Infra Hold 178 168 32,637 14.7 15.1 18.2 7.2 6.6 5.4 6.1 6.1 5.8 14.2 13.3 13.7

Sadbhav Hold 151 142 21,282 8.0 9.9 10.5 17.8 14.3 13.6 10.1 9.2 8.4 23.1 21.3 18.5

Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

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Exhibit 2: Major road projects awarded during Q4FY12

Company Project Client Length (kms)

Concession

period (years) TPC (Rsmn)

ITNL 4-laning of Kiratpur to Ner-Chowk Section of NH-21 NHAI 113.3 28 18,185

ITNL 4-lane highway from Kharagpur to Baleshwar section of NH-60 NHAI 119.3 24 4,711

ITNL Dev and Ops of Sikar-Bikaner Section of NH-11 & NH-89 PWD - Govt of Rajasthan 25 6,508

ITNL (Elsamex S.A.) Rehabilitation work on NR-3 between Hinche & Saint Raphael Government of Haiti 44.2 2,653

Sadbhav 4-laning of Gomati ka Chauraha - Udaipur section of NH-8 NHAI 83.0 27 12,800

Sadbhav 4-laning of Solapur-Bijapur section of NH-13 NHAI 110.5 20 12,200

Unity Infra Suratgarh- Sriganganagar Section of NH-15 PWD - Govt of Rajasthan 76.2 11 3,300

Unity Infra 4-laning of Punjab/ Haryana Border - Jind Section of NH- 71 NHAI 68.0 27 5,100

Ashoka Buildcon 4-laning of Cuttack - Angul Section of NH-42 NHAI 112.0 23 11,000

L&T 4-laning of Amravati-Jalgaon section of NH-6 NHAI 275.2 25,378

L&T 4-laning of Jalgaon-Gujarat Border section of NH-6 NHAI 208.8 19,684

IVRCL 4-laning of Patiala-Bathinda section of NH64 PWD - Govt of Punjab 166.0 24 15,860

IVRCL 6-laning of Gundugulanu-Rajamundhry section of NH-5 NHAI 120.7 24 16,170

IVRCL 4/6 laninf of Raipur-Bilaspur section of NH-200 NHAI 127.0 25 13,000

IVRCL 4-laning of Raj Malikpur-kharak corridor of Haryana PWD - Govt of Haryana 151.0 20 12,017

Source: BSE Notification, Company, Centrum Research

Exhibit 3: Q4FY12E Comparison – Centrum v/s Consensus

Y/E March Net Sales (Rsmn) EBITDA (Rsmn) EBITDA Margins (%) Adj.PAT (Rsmn)

(Rsmn) Centrum Consensus Var (%) Centrum Consensus Var (%) Centrum Consensus Diff (bps) Centrum Consensus Var (%)

ITNL 15,600 15,674 (0.5) 3,430 3,853 (11.0) 22.0 24.6 (259) 1,090 1,285 (15.2)

IRB Infra 6,927 8,161 (15.1) 3,410 3,499 (2.5) 49.2 42.9 635 1,148 1,165 (1.5)

Sadbhav 9,975 9,251 7.8 1,027 908 13.1 10.3 9.8 48 550 534 3.1

Total/Average 32,502 33,086 (1.8) 7,867 8,260 (4.8) 24.2 25.0 (76) 2,788 2,984 (6.6)

Source: Bloomberg, Company, Centrum Research Estimates

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Appendix A

Disclaimer

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Key to Centrum Investment Rankings

Buy: Expected outperform Nifty by>15%, Accumulate: Expected to outperform Nifty by +5 to 15%, Hold: Expected to outperform Nifty by -5% to +5%, Reduce: Expected to underperform

Nifty by 5 to 15%, Sell: Expected to underperform Nifty by>15%

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Road Infrastructure


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Road Infrastructure

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