Ultra Tech Cement - Q4FY12 Result update ... - all-mail-archive

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Ultra Tech Cement - Q4FY12 Result update ... - all-mail-archive

INDIA

Cement

Ultra Tech Cement

Q4FY12 Result update 24 Apr 2012

Result above estimates, earnings growth to moderate

Ultra Tech’s Q4FY12 result was above both our and Consensus estimates

primarily due to lower-than-expected cost pressure, higher other income and

lower tax rate during the quarter. The company reported EBITDA of Rs12.6bn

vs. est. Rs11.8bn and EBITDA margin was at 23.7%, 1.3pp above our estimate

of 22.4%. Higher-than-expected operating margin was driven by 6.3% QoQ

decline in power & fuel cost to Rs1,031/tonne. The management said that

higher usage of pet coke and improved efficiency were the reasons for

sequential decline in power & fuel cost. Higher other income of Rs2bn (up

115% YoY) and lower tax rate (26% against 32.8% in Q3FY12) led to adjusted

profit of Rs8.6bn against our estimate of Rs7.1bn (Bloomberg consensus’

estimates of Rs6.7bn). We believe that higher domestic realization (up ~16%

YoY, despite lower industry utilization rate) helped the company register

robust earnings growth of 42% in FY12 (which in our view led to

outperformance of the stock in FY12 despite higher valuations, sluggish

demand and concerns on sustainability of higher prices). However, going

forward, with our expectation of earnings decline in FY13E due to cost

pressure, decline in other income and higher interest expense, we expect the

stock to come under pressure. We maintain Sell on UTCEM with target price of

Rs1,179, downside of 24% from its CMP.




Higher realization and sales volume help to post better results: Higher

blended realization (up 10.2% YoY) and sales volume (up 7.9% YoY) resulted

in 18.9% YoY growth in revenues to Rs53.3bn, 1% above our estimates of

Rs52.9bn. Higher realizations led to 22.2% YoY increase in EBITDA to Rs12.6bn

(est.: Rs11.8bn).

Lower power & fuel cost expands EBITDA margin: Power & fuel cost

declined 6.3% QoQ to Rs1,031/tonne primarily due to higher usage of pet

coke in the quarter and improved efficiency. EBITDA margin during the

quarter was at 23.7% (vs. est. 22.4%) and EBITDA/tonne of Rs 1,095 against our

estimate of Rs1,021/tonne.

Higher other income and lower tax rate boosts adjusted profit: Higher

other income of Rs2bn (up 115% YoY) and lower tax rate (26% against 32.8%

in Q3FY12) resulted in 40.3% YoY growth in adjusted profit to Rs8.6bn (our

estimate: Rs7.1bn). Higher other income was due to maturity of FMPs in FY12

and subsidies related to state investment promotion scheme.

Y/E Mar(Rsmn) Q4FY12 Q4FY11 YoY (%) Q3FY12 QoQ (%) Q4FY12E Var (%)

Net Sales 53,366 44,901 18.9 45,681 16.8 52,851 1.0

EBITDA 12,641 10,344 22.2 9,647 31.0 11,822 6.9

EBITDA margin (%) 23.7 23.0 65bps 21.1 257bps 22.4 132bps

Reported PAT 8,673 7,268 19.3 6,169 40.6 7,085 22.4

Adjusted PAT 8,573 6,112 40.3 5,118 67.5 7,085 21.0

Adj PAT margin (%) 16.3 16.2 7bps 13.5 275bps 13.4 285bps

Source: Company, Centrum Research



Earnings to decline in FY13: Benefitting from higher domestic realizations

(up ~16% YoY despite lower industry utilization rate), adjusted EPS (on a liketo-like

basis) of the company increased 42% YoY to Rs83.6 in FY12. We believe

that outperformance of the stock over the past 1 year was driven by stellar

earnings growth despite concerns on the sustainability of pricing power and

sluggish volume growth. Going forward, we expect EPS to decline 2.3% YoY to

Rs81.7 in FY13E.

Increasing costs remain a challenge; maintain Sell on expensive

valuations: Operating costs (up 12% YoY in FY12) continue to remain higher

and margins could be under pressure going forward. The stock is trading at

15.5x FY14E EPS, 8.6x EV/EBITDA and US$163.7 EV/tonne. We maintain Sell on

the stock with target price of Rs1,179, a downside of 24% from its CMP.

Key Data

Recco (Prev) Sell (Sell) Bloomberg Code UTCEM IN

Target (Prev) Rs1,179 (Rs1,179) Reuters Code ULTC.BO

CMP Rs1,467* Current Shares O/S (mn) 274.1

Downside (%) 24% Diluted Shares O/S(mn) 274.1

Mkt Cap (Rsbn/USDbn) 402/7.6

Price Performance (%)* 52 Wk H / L (Rs) 1,545/914

1M 6M 1Yr Daily Vol. (3M NSE Avg.) 194,203

UTCEM (3.2) 29.9 45.0 Face Value (Rs) 10

NIFTY (1.3) 2.2 (11.4) USD = Rs52.7

Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Research

*as on 23 April 2012

Analysis of operating metrics

(Rs/tonne) Q4FY12 Q4FY11 Q3FY12 YoY (%) QoQ (%)

Volumes (mt) 11.5 10.7 10.2 7.9 13.6

Blended realization 4,624 4,196 4,496 10.2 2.9

Raw Material 580 534 598 8.8 (3.0)

Power & Fuel 1,031 905 1,100 14.0 (6.3)

Freight 944 893 925 5.7 2.0

Employee expenses 190 202 219 (5.9) (12.9)

Other Expenses 741 676 725 9.6 2.2

Operating cost 3,529 3,230 3,547 9.3 (0.5)

EBIDTA/tonne 1,095 967 949 13.3 15.4

Source: Company, Centrum Research

Increase in realization results in EBITDA margin expansion

(Rs/tonne)

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

Q1FY09

Q2FY09

Q3FY09

Q4FY09

Q1FY10

Q2FY10

Q3FY10

Q4FY10

Q1FY11

Q2FY11

Q3FY11

Q4FY11

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12

(%)

40

Realization/tonne Operating cost/tonne EBITDA m (%)

Source: Company, Centrum Research

Sanjeev Kumar Singh

sanjeev.singh@centrum.co.in

+91 22 4215 9643

34

28

22

16

10

Y/E Mar (Rsbn) Rev YoY (%) EBITDA EBITDA (%) Adj PAT YoY (%) Fully DEPS RoE (%) RoCE (%) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x)

FY11^ 132.1 87.4 25.4 19.2 12.8 17.0 46.7 12.0 13.8 31.4 15.9

FY12E 181.7 37.5 40.0 22.0 22.9 79.3 83.6 19.5 14.3 17.5 10.0

FY13E 196.2 8.0 43.1 22.0 22.4 (2.3) 81.7 16.2 12.6 18.0 10.0

FY14E 215.2 9.7 50.5 23.5 25.9 15.6 94.4 16.2 12.7 15.5 8.6

FY15E 235.8 9.6 57.8 24.5 31.5 21.9 115.1 17.0 13.7 12.7 6.9

Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates * Not comparable with forward numbers ^ FY12E numbers not comparable with FY11E due to merger of Samruddhi Cement in Q2FY11

Please refer to important disclosures/disclaimers inside

Centrum Equity Research is available on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and FactSet


Financials

Exhibit 1: Income Statement

Y/E March (Rsmn) FY11^ FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E

Net Sales 132,099 181,664 196,210 215,192 235,775

Total Expenditure 106,676 141,657 153,079 164,712 177,984

Raw Materials 19,275 23,777 24,539 27,119 30,035

Power & Fuel 31,226 43,040 45,509 48,453 51,779

Staff Cost 6,665 8,310 8,965 9,684 10,610

Transport & forwarding exp 28,849 37,350 35,783 37,494 39,597

Others 21,279 28,968 38,070 41,750 45,750

EBITDA 25,424 40,007 43,131 50,480 57,791

EBITDA margin (%) 19.2 22.0 22.0 23.5 24.5

Other Income 2,867 4,268 2,790 2,990 3,624

Depreciation 7,657 9,026 10,463 12,678 14,041

Interest 2,771 2,761 3,364 3,697 2,197

PBT 17,862 32,488 32,094 37,094 45,176

PBT margin (%) 13.5 17.9 16.4 17.2 19.2

Tax 3,820 9,467 9,702 11,212 13,636

Adj PAT 12,787 22,921 22,392 25,882 31,540

PAT margin (%) 9.7 12.6 11.4 12.0 13.4

EPS (Rs) 46.7 83.6 81.7 94.4 115.1

Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 2: Balance Sheet

Y/E March (Rsmn) FY11^ FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E

Sources of Funds:

Share Capital 2,740 2,740 2,740 2,740 2,740

ESOPs outstanding 48 48 48 48 48

Reserves 103,872 125,808 145,493 168,509 197,023

Shareholders Fund 106,660 128,596 148,281 171,297 199,811

Debt 41,446 38,117 44,417 48,417 28,417

Net deferred tax 17,301 17,301 17,301 17,301 17,301

Total Liabilities 165,407 184,014 209,998 237,014 245,528

Application of Funds:

Gross Block 179,423 200,476 244,754 294,754 302,754

Accumulated Depreciation 65,420 74,446 84,909 97,587 111,629

Net Fixed Assets 114,003 126,030 159,845 197,167 191,125

Capital WIP 11,053 9,278 20,000 5,000 2,000

Investments 37,303 37,887 13,303 14,303 28,303

Current Assets

Inventories 19,565 20,359 32,254 35,374 38,758

Sundry Debtors 6,023 7,660 9,139 10,023 10,981

Cash & Bank balances 1,448 587 2,071 2,364 2,258

Loans & Advances 10,539 26,334 28,442 31,194 34,178

Total Current Assets 37,575 54,940 71,906 78,955 86,175

Sundry creditors 16,782 20,897 32,254 35,374 38,758

Other liabilities & provisions 17,757 23,237 22,814 23,049 23,329

Total Current Liabilities 34,539 44,134 55,068 58,423 62,087

Net Current Assets 3,036 10,806 16,838 20,532 24,087

Total Assets 165,407 184,014 209,998 237,014 245,528

Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

* Not comparable with forward numbers ^ FY12E numbers not comparable with

FY11E due to merger of Samruddhi Cement in Q2FY11

Exhibit 3: Cash flow

Y/E March (Rsmn) FY11^ FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E

PBT before extraordinary Items 17,862 32,488 32,094 37,094 45,176

Add: Depreciation 7,657 9,026 10,463 12,678 14,041

Add: Interest 2,771 2,761 3,364 3,697 2,197

Add: Others (1,432) (2,170) (1,330) (1,430) (2,264)

Cash Flow from operating 26,858 42,105 44,591 52,039 59,150

Interest paid (2,930) (2,761) (3,364) (3,697) (2,197)

Net chg - WC (925) (9,898) (4,125) (3,636) (3,942)

Direct taxes (5,190) (8,993) (10,284) (11,136) (13,515)

Net cash from operating 17,813 20,453 26,818 33,570 39,496

Capital expenditure (12,228) (19,278) (55,000) (35,000) (5,000)

Others (2,110) 3,205 25,914 430 (11,736)

Net Cash from investing (16,489) (16,073) (29,086) (34,570) (16,736)

Net free cash flows 5,585 1,175 (28,182) (1,430) 34,496

Proceeds from issue 14 - - - -

Debt change 12 (3,329) 6,300 4,000 (20,000)

Dividend paid (1,405) (1,911) (2,548) (2,707) (2,866)

Net cash from financing (1,378) (5,240) 3,752 1,293 (22,866)

Opening cash balance 837 1,448 587 2,071 2,364

Closing cash balance 1,448 587 2,071 2,364 2,258

Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 4: Key Ratios

Y/E March FY11^ FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E

Valuations ratios (x)

P/E 31.4 17.5 18.0 15.5 12.7

Price/Cash earnings 19.7 12.6 12.2 10.4 8.8

Price/BV 3.8 3.1 2.7 2.3 2.0

EV/Sales 3.1 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.7

EV/EBITDA 15.9 10.0 10.0 8.6 6.9

EV/Tonne (USD) 181.0 179.6 192.8 163.7 150.9

Profitability ratios (%)

EBITDA margin 19.2 22.0 22.0 23.5 24.5

EBITDA per Tonne (Rs) 730.9 980.5 1006.2 1137.4 1284.3

EBIT margin 13.4 17.1 16.6 17.6 18.6

Adj PAT margin 10.6 13.5 11.4 12.0 13.4

Return ratios (%)

RoE 12.0 19.5 16.2 16.2 17.0

RoCE 13.8 14.3 12.6 12.7 13.7

RoIC 10.8 15.8 13.2 12.6 13.9

Growth ratios (%)

Net Sales 87.4 37.5 8.0 9.7 9.6

EBITDA 28.9 57.4 7.8 17.0 14.5

EPS (46.9) 79.3 (2.3) 15.6 21.9

Per share (Rs)

Adj EPS 46.7 83.6 81.7 94.4 115.1

CEPS 74.6 116.6 119.9 140.7 166.3

BVPS (Rs) 389 469 541 625 729

Solvency Ratio (x)

D/E 0.39 0.30 0.30 0.28 0.14

Net D/E 0.05 0.02 0.21 0.20 0.00

Interest coverage 6.4 11.2 9.7 10.2 19.9

Current Ratio 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4

Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

2

Ultra Tech Cement


Appendix A

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Ultra Tech Cement


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4

Ultra Tech Cement

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