NIIT - Q4FY12 - Result update - 11052012.pdf - all-mail-archive

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NIIT - Q4FY12 - Result update - 11052012.pdf - all-mail-archive

INDIA

Education

NIIT

Q4FY12 Result update/Estimate change 11 May 2012

Focus on returns

NIIT’s Q4FY12 numbers exclude Element K business. While topline was in line

with our estimates, adjusting to one off in school learning solutions, the

operational margin was better than our expectation. The Individual Learning

Solution (ILS) and School Learning Solution (SLS) had higher margins which

led to flat YoY EBITDA margin to 13.9% on a like-to-like basis. We have

marginally revised our estimates for the SLS segment considering the

challenging environment and increased losses in Skill Building Solution (SBS)

considering strong ramp up in centres in the next 2-3 years. Accordingly, we

have revised our target price lower to Rs56 based on marginal reduction in

profit estimation. We retain Buy rating on attractive valuations and

improvement in return ratios.

Topline in line; EBITDA margin above estimates: NIIT reported 5.7%

decline in topline to Rs3.1bn against our estimate of Rs2. 65bn as the Element

K business was removed from Q3 due to its sale to SkillSoft. On a like-to-like

basis, revenue was up 17% YoY to Rs2.6bn. EBITDA margin was higher than

our estimates at 14% as ILS and SLS had better margins in Q4. SLS reported

one time pass through hardware sale of Rs481mn which inflated the topline.

Adjusting to one off sale in SLS, EBITDA margin was higher at 9.6% on strong

addition to the private school segment as the company continued to invest in

ramping up operations and hiring sales force to win more school orders going

forward.


Individual Learning Solution (ILS) shows better than expected results: ILS

registered 13.8% YoY growth in revenue to Rs1.5bn on the back of 7.8%

growth in enrollments. Operating margin contracted by 114bps to 18% as the

company is integrating centers and cloud campus related expenses went up

during the period. Going forward, short term courses will see better

enrollments compared to long term ones.

Y/E Mar (Rsmn) Q4FY12 Q4FY11 YoY (%) Q3FY12 QoQ (%) Q4FY12E Var (%)

Net Sales 3,051 3,237 (5.7) 2,501 22.0 2,645 15.4

EBITDA 357 405 (11.9) 251 44.2 308 15.9

EBITDA margin (%) 11.7 12.5 (81) bp 10.0 166 bp 11.6 5 bp

Reported PAT 262 378 (30.7) 407 35.6 243 7.9

PAT margin (%) 8.6 4.3 16.3 9.2 (60) bp

Source: Company, Centrum Research



Balance Sheet down 16.3%; net cash Rs67mn at the end of Q4: The sale of

Element K business is showing its positive impact on the operational

performance of the company in our opinion. Net debt has reached Rs67mn

on account of cash inflow and return ratio has also improved to 18% in FY12.

With marginal improvement in operating margin, we expect the RoCE to inch

up despite capex in SBS.

Cheap valuations; Reiterate Buy: We continue to like the stock due to cheap

valuations, better sales mix, potential to expand margins in the ILS and SLS

segments and improvement in return ratios. We have reduced our revenue

estimates marginally for FY12E and FY13E to factor in lower revenue growth in

SLS segments and increase in capex in SBS segment. Contract expiry of

government schools and digital content solution to the private school

segment could put pressure on realizations. Revision in estimates has led to

reduction in target price to Rs56 (Rs60 earlier). We re-iterate our Buy rating on

the stock as it gives an upside of 32.5% with a dividend yield of 3.8% (on Rs1.6

dividend per share).

Key Data

Recco (Prev) Buy (Buy) Bloomberg Code NIIT IN

Target (Prev) Rs56 (Rs60) Reuters Code NIIT.BO

CMP Rs42* Current Shares O/S (mn) 165.1

Upside (%) 32.5% Diluted Shares O/S(mn) 165.1

Mkt Cap (Rsbn/USDmn) 7/130.3

Price Performance (%)* 52 Wk H / L (Rs) 60/34

1M 6M 1Yr Daily Vol. (3M NSE Avg.) 274,084

NIIT (15.6) (13.2) (23.2) Face Value (Rs) 2

NIFTY (5.3) (4.2) (11.0) USD = Rs53.5

Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Research

*as on 10 May 2012

School Learning Solution performance picks up in Q4

(Rsmn)

410

400

390

380

370

360

350

340

7.5

12.2 11.6

3.8

9.6

374 403 405 368 384

Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12

Revenue

Source: Company, Centrum Research

Q4FY12 results on like-to like basis

EBITDA margin

(%)

15

Reported YoY (%) Like-To-Like YoY (%)

NIIT

Revenue (Rs mn) 3,052 (6) 2,570 17.0

EBITDA margin (%) 11.7 (81) bp 14.0 (21)bp

CLS

Revenue (Rs mn) 664 (56.5) 664 36.0

EBITDA margin (%) 9.6 184 bp 9.6 463bp

SLS

Revenue (Rs mn) 865 131.3 384 2.7

EBITDA margin (%) 4.3 (321) bp 9.6 215 bp

Source: Company, Centrum Research

Earning Revision

FY13E

FY14E

Particulars Current Earlier Chg (%) Current Earlier Chg (%)

Sales 11,217 11,490 (2.4) 12,564 12,420 1.2

EBITDA 1,478 1,522 (2.9) 1,760 1,799 (2.2)

OPM (%) 13.2 13.2 (-)7 bp 14.0 14.5 (-)48 bp

Net Profit 901 1,079 (16.5) 1,123 1,247 (9.9)

NPM (%) 8.0 9.4 (-)136 bp 8.9 10.0 (-)110 bp

Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

Abhishek Anand

a.anand@centrum.co.in

+91 22 4215 9853

10

5

0

Y/E Mar (Rsmn) Rev YoY (%) EBITDA EBITDA (%) Adj PAT YoY (%) Fully DEPS RoE (%) RoCE (%) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x)

FY11 12,483 4.1 1,594 12.8 922 31.2 5.6 17.4 13.1 7.6 6.3

FY12 12,603 1.0 1,475 11.7 1,102 19.5 6.7 18.1 15.2 6.3 4.8

FY13E 11,217 (11.0) 1,478 13.2 901 (18.2) 5.5 12.9 12.1 7.7 4.1

FY14E 12,564 12.0 1,760 14.0 1,123 24.7 6.8 14.6 13.7 6.2 3.4

FY15E 13,844 10.2 1,992 14.4 1,244 10.8 7.5 14.7 13.9 5.6 2.9

Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

Please refer to important disclosures/disclaimers inside

Centrum Equity Research is available on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and FactSet


Financials

Exhibit 1: Income Statement

Y/E March (Rsmn) FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E

Net Sales 12,483 12,603 11,217 12,564 13,844

Growth (%) 4.1 1.0 -11.0 12.0 10.2

Operating Profits 1,594 1,475 1,478 1,760 1,992

% of sales 12.8 11.7 13.2 14.0 14.4

Depreciation % Amortisation 854 874 844 872 971

PBIT 739 600 634 887 1021

Interest Expenses 354 268 88 55 55

PBT from operations 385 333 546 832 966

Other non oper. income 30 61 0 0 0

PBT before extraord. items 415 393 546 832 966

Extraord. income/(expenses) 1,636

PBT 415 393 546 832 966

PBT margin (%) 3.3 3.1 4.9 6.6 7.0

Provision for tax 89 1409 153 233 270

Effective tax rate (%) 24.0 26.0 28.0 28.0 28.0

Share of profir from ass. 453 481 508 524 549

Net Profit (reported) 922 1,102 901 1,123 1,244

-Growth (%) 31.2 19.5 (18.2) 24.7 10.8

-NPM (%) 3.8 4.9 3.5 4.8 5.0

Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 2: Balance Sheet

Y/E March (Rsmn) FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E

Share Capital 330 330 330 330 330

Reserves and Surplus 5,235 6,290 6,961 7,733 8,571

Total shareholders fund 5,565 6,620 7,291 8,064 8,901

Minority Interest 30 39 31 32 33

Loan fund 3658 1087 887 700 700

Total capital employed 9,253 7,746 8,209 8,796 9,635

Gross block 8,771 6,579 7,479 8,379 9,279

Less: Accumulated dep. 3,971 4,485 5,329 6,201 7,172

Net block 4,800 2,094 2,150 2,178 2,107

Capital WIP 622 379 200 200 200

Net fixed assets 5,422 2,473 2,350 2,378 2,307

Investments 1,641 1,955 2,455 2,980 3,530

Cash and bank 526 1016 1784 1654 1865

Inventories 153 119 159 174 191

Debtors 3,898 3,932 3,319 3,786 4,172

Other cur. Assets. & loans & adv. 1,353 1,449 1,178 1,319 1,454

Total current assets 7,104 7,088 7,012 7,506 8,254

Curr. liab. and Prov. 5,221 3,836 3,674 4,135 4,523

Net current assets 1,883 3,252 3,337 3,371 3,731

Deferred tax asset 307 67 67 67 67

Total assets 9,253 7,746 8,209 8,796 9,634

Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 3: Cash flow

Y/E March (Rsmn) FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E

Cash Flow from operation

Profit before tax 557 393 546 832 966

Depreciation 854 874 844 872 971

Interest expenses 297 268 88 55 55

Other non cash charges 51 (15) (110) (120) (120)

Op. profit before WC changes 1,547 1,230 1,368 1,640 1,872

Working capital adjustments (11) (1,481) 682 (163) (149)

Direct tax paid (221) (1,409) (153) (233) (270)

Net cash from operation 1,315 (1,659) 1,897 1,244 1,453

Cash flow from investing

Capex (1,111) 2,435 (721) (900) (900)

Investments 522 2,977 110 120 120

Net cash from investment (505) 5,297 (611) (780) (780)

Cash flow from financing

Borrowings/(Repayments) (1,519) (2,571) (200) (187) -

Interest paid (294) (268) (88) (55) (55)

Dividend paid (269) (309) (230) (351) (407)

Net cash flow from financing (917) (3,148) (518) (593) (462)

Net cash increase/(decrease) (107) 490 768 (129) 211

Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 4: Key Ratios

Y/E March FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E

Margin Ratio (%)

EBITDA Margin 12.8 11.7 13.2 14.0 14.4

PBIT Margin 5.9 4.8 5.7 7.1 7.4

PBT Margin 3.3 3.1 4.9 6.6 7.0

PAT Margin 3.8 4.9 3.5 4.8 5.0

Growth Ratio (%)

Revenue 4.1 1.0 (11.0) 12.0 10.2

EBITDA 3.2 (7.5) 0.2 19.1 13.2

Net Profit 23.3 32.6 (36.7) 52.4 16.0

Return Ratios (%)

ROCE 13.1 15.2 12.1 13.7 13.9

ROIC 13.2 13.8 16.9 20.6 20.9

ROE 17.4 18.1 12.9 14.6 14.7

Turnover Ratios

Asset turnover ratio (x) 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5

Working capital cycle (days) (58.6) (66.3) (61.8) (47.3) (46.2)

Avg. collection period (days) 106.7 113.4 118.0 103.2 104.9

Avg. payment period (days) 169.4 183.6 184.3 155.3 155.9

Per share (Rs)

Basic EPS 5.6 6.7 5.5 6.8 7.5

Fully diluted EPS (ex profit

from associates) 2.8 3.8 2.4 3.6 4.2

Fully diluted EPS 5.6 6.7 5.5 6.8 7.5

Book value 33.7 40.1 44.2 48.8 53.9

Solvency Ratio (x)

Debt-equity 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1

Interest coverage ratio 2.1 2.2 7.2 16.1 18.6

Valuation (x)

P/E 7.6 6.3 7.7 6.2 5.6

P/E (ex profit from associates) 14.9 11.2 17.7 11.6 10.0

P/BV 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8

EV/EBITDA 6.3 4.8 4.1 3.4 2.9

EV/Sales 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4

M-cap/Sales 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5

Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

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NIIT


Appendix A

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Key to Centrum Investment Rankings

Buy: Expected outperform Nifty by>15%, Accumulate: Expected to outperform Nifty by +5 to 15%, Hold: Expected to outperform Nifty by -5% to +5%, Reduce: Expected to underperform

Nifty by 5 to 15%, Sell: Expected to underperform Nifty by>15%

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NIIT


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Member (NSE, BSE, MCX-SX), Depository Participant (CDSL) and SEBI registered Portfolio Manager

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NIIT

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