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BSE SENSEX

S&P CNX

17,333 5,277

Bloomberg

COAL IN

Equity Shares (m) 6,316.4

52-Week Range (INR) 422/294

1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%) -1/-2/3

M.Cap. (INR b) 2,103.3

M.Cap. (USD b) 40.9

Valuation summary (INR b)

Y/E March 2011 2012E 2013E

Net Sales 526 610 714

EBITDA 135 143 200

NP* 109 145 177

EPS (INR)* 17.3 23.0 28.0

EPS Gr. (%) 11.2 32.9 21.9

BV/Sh. (INR) 52.7 68.2 87.0

P/E (x) 19.2 14.9 12.2

P/BV (x) 6.3 5.0 3.9

EV/EBITDA (x) 12.3 11.1 7.2

EV/ Sales (x) 3.2 2.6 2.0

RoE (%)** 26.4 27.4 26.5

RoCE (%) 54.3 49.3 52.3

*Adjusted, **RoE is adjusted for

OB reserves accounts, as

applicable under IFRS

Shareholding pattern % (Mar-12)

Others, 2.7

Foreign,

5.5

Domestic

Inst, 1.8

Govt of India

90.0

Stock performance (1 year)

500

425

350

275

200

Apr-11

Jul-11

Coal India

Sensex - Rebased

Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

12 April 2012

Update | Sector: Utilities

Coal India

CMP: INR333 TP: INR392 Buy

Signs of easing out of tight spot

Operational performance turnaround, an important trigger

• COAL has faced several challenges/disappointments on the policy, administrative and

operational fronts over the last 18 months.

• FY13 could be the year of 'operational performance turnaround', largely driven by

leadership enforcement and increased focus to enhance production. While several of

the domestic issues are structural, COAL remains one of the most non-controversial

ways to increase coal production in the system led by focused government action.

• The phase of 'tight spot' has led to stock price being influenced by news flows. The CMP

stands atINR333 v/s listing day price of INR342 and high of INR415 on 1 June 2011.

• COAL trades at 12x FY13E earnings. It has impressive RoE of 25%+, FY12-14E earnings

CAGR of 17% and FY12E dividend yield of ~3%. Reiterate Buy, with target of INR392.

FY11/12 - in a tight spot: Over the last 18 months, COAL witnessed several

challenges on the policy, operational and administrative fronts. These include

revised norms for environmental/forest clearances, uncertainty on mining tax/

MMDR Act, delays in land acquisition/LAAR Bill, e-auction diversion in October

2011/PMO directive to lower quantum to 7%, commitment on FSA, nonappointment

of a permanent CMD for 18 months, near-flat production for three

consecutive years, wage negotiations, delayed award of washery projects, etc.

These factors coupled with heavy monsoon, workers' strike, evacuation

bottlenecks, etc impacted operational performance. Stringent monitoring of CBI/

CVC/CAG led to excessive focus on set processes and impacted decision making.

FY13 could be year of 'operational performance turnaround': Widening Domestic

coal deficit, inter-ministerial logjam and meaningful implications for the financial

sector triggered a wake-up call, leading to direct intervention of the PMO's office.

Policy stance is now being made more accommodative, with relaxation of CEPI,

removal of 'Go/No Go' concept etc. Near term evacuation bottlenecks are being

addressed through increased wagon allocations. Appointment of a permanent

CMD (Mr S Narsing Rao) is an important step in our view, as focused leadership

could address administrative challenges. Also, the wage negotiation process is

now completed, and we believe that there exist reasonable possibilities of a

compensatory price hike. The passage of the MMDR Act could be a prolonged

exercise, given the strained center-state relationships and limitations of coalition

politics. Thus, a beginning has been made to possibly address several of the

constraints impacting COAL's performance over the past few years.

Strong business fundamentals provide comfort; maintain Buy: We believe that

COAL remains the most non-controversial way to improve coal production in the

system and the company enjoys meaningful operating leverage. This along with

possibility of price review in 1QFY13, accounting cushion in the form of OB

provision and continued discount to international prices provide comfort for

upsides in our view. Our base-case EPS estimate for FY12, which factors in full

impact of wage hikes, but no price revision, stands at INR23. Buy.

Nalin Bhatt (NalinBhatt@MotilalOswal.com) +91 22 3982 5429

Satyam Agarwal (AgarwalS@MotilalOswal.com) / Vishal Periwal (Vishal.Periwal@MotilalOswal.com)


Coal India

FY11/12 a tight spot: COAL through its journey since IPO

CIL: stock return largely flat since IPO, several events on the way…

COAL's stock price has remained flat since its IPO, as several challenges have marred its growth prospects

Mr S Narsing Rao, Designate CMD Coal India, A Profile

Currently CMD, Singareni Collieries Limited

Mr S Narsing Rao took over as Chairman & Managing Director (CMD) of Singareni

Collieries Limited (SCCL) on 18 September 2006. He was selected to the Indian

Administrative Services (IAS) and was allotted to the Andhra Pradesh Cadre in 1986.

Before joining SCCL, he held various positions in the Government of Andhra Pradesh

such as Commissioner of Rural Development, Secretary to Government, Information

Technology & Communications Department, Collector & District Magistrate of

Chittoor and Visakhapatnam Districts, Managing Director, Girijan Cooperative

Corporation Limited, Project Officer, ITDA, Joint Collector, Sub Collector, etc. He has

also had international work experience as Senior Area Manager and Portfolio

Manager of United Nations Office for Project Services, Asia & Pacific, responsible

for technical advice on rural development in South and South East Asian countries.

12 April 2012 2


Coal India

4QFY12 production up 10%

YoY (m tons)

Production

Grow th (%)

2.4 2.5

1.2

-1.0

0.7

-2.0

-11.2

9.7

96

88

111

135

95

91

114

132

96

80

115

145

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

Dispatch growth too strong at

8% YoY (m tons)

Offtake

Growth (%)

4.3 5.1

3.0

1.1

-0.2

-0.3

8.4

100

94

107

114

101

98

111

113

106

93

110

123

-5.3

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

FY12 - third consecutive year of flat production, dispatch growth also muted

• In FY12, COAL's production grew 1% YoY to 435.8m tons lower than revised

production target of 440m ton. A large part of the muted growth in production

was due to slippages in 2QFY12, during which production declined 11% YoY to

80.3m tons (in 1Q and 3Q, production was up YoY).

• For the month of March 2012, COAL produced 54.1m tons (an average of 1.74m

tons/day), up 7% YoY, while 4QFY12 production was 144.6m tons, up 9.7% YoY.

Production for the months of January and February 2012 was 44.7m tons (up 6%

YoY) and 45.8m tons (up 17% YoY), respectively.

• COAL's FY12 dispatches were 432.5m tons, up 1.9%. For 4QFY12, dispatches grew

8.4% YoY to 122.8m tons, the highest in the last 8 quarters. Dispatches for the

month of March 2012 were 42.8m tons, indicating a run rate of 1.4m tons/day.

Dispatches could have been higher if not for lower offtake through the MGR route

at MCL/ECL mines. Rake availability improved to 199 rakes/day in March 2012, up

from 189 rakes/day in January 2012 and 197 rakes/day in February 2012. During

FY12 maximum production in a day touched a record 2.03m ton, coal offtake

reached an all time high of 231 rakes/day.

• Given the operational headwinds given monsoon, and policy issues for the large

part of the year, FY12 is the third year of flat production for COAL. Dispatch growth

has also been muted from 415m tons in FY10 to 423m tons in FY11 and 432.5m tons

in FY12. COAL has approached MoEF for expediting clearances on fast track basis;

permission was sought to produce 25% more than the existing EC capacity in 11

projects/mines reaching capacity limit. EC for 3 projects was obtained in Feb-12

and 7 projects cleared in Mar-12 totaling 19m tons.

Average rake availability improving (rakes/day)

157

162

172

177

162 160

165

153

168

178

189

197 199

140

FY10

FY11

FY12

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

July-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Source: Company/MOSL

12 April 2012 3


Coal India

FY13 production target of 470m tons is achievable in our view

• CIL has in the press release for FY12 performance suggested that it is fully geared

for attaining optimistic target of 470m ton of production in FY13. This compares

with CIL's earlier envisaged production target of 462m ton.

• We believe that the higher production target for FY13 is possible, as we expect (1)

higher production in 2QFY13, with normalization of operations, and (2) YoY growth

in production in the balance three quarters.

• We note that COAL's production was 91m tons in 2QFY11, which declined by 10m

tons in 2QFY12 given severe rainfall. Assuming a normal scenario (the monsoon is

expected to be normal/below normal in FY13), there could be incremental volumes

of 10-12m tons in FY13 alone.

• This leaves the balance at ~20m tons, which would mean a production growth of

~6% in the balance three quarters (355m tons in FY12). We believe this is achievable,

given that several constraints like CEPI, Go/No-Go area, and logistics issues are

being addressed and the benefits will accrue in a phased manner.

• Amrapali Project (CCL) of 12mtpa with an estimated cost of INR8.5b has been

sanctioned in Feb-12, which is likely to contribute 1.5m ton of coal in FY13.

2QFY12 was particularly bad, leading to flat production

in FY12 (m tons)

2Q Growth Balance Growth Total Growth

(% YoY) 3 qtrs (% YoY) (% YoY)

FY10 88 342 430

FY11 91 2 341 (0) 431 0

FY12 80 (11) 355 4 436 1

FY13E 90 12 377 6 467 17

Production growth should pick up from FY13 (m tons)

Production (m ton)

CAGR from FY12-17E (%)

Growth (% YoY)

261.0

256.5

259.4

266.6

279.7

290.7

306.4

323.6

342.3

359.9

378.4

402.7

430.2

431.3

435.7

462.4

492.7

528.0

568.0

616.0

10

7

4

1

-2

-5

FY98

FY99

FY00

FY01

FY02

FY03

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12E

FY13E

FY14E

FY15E

FY16E

FY17E

Source: Company/MOSL

Quarterly adjusted PAT (INR b)

25 26

15

42 41

22

45

37

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12E

Wage negotiations concluded; actual cash outflow over next 1-2 months

• COAL has finalized the National Coal Wage Agreement IX with its workers. The

provision for the actual liability would be accounted in 4Q, less the provision

made in 2Q/3QFY12. The management indicated that the total cost would be

INR65b, of which only INR16b is accounted in 2Q/3QFY12. Thus, 4QFY12 would see

a significant increase in provisioning. We understand that there is a one-time

increase of INR18-20b in long-term liabilities.

• The management has indicated that the actual cash outflow is not yet decided, as

the arrears billing for the entire workforce (300,000 workers+) would take time.

The exercise should be completed over the next 1-2 months.

• We estimate COAL's adjusted PAT at INR44b for 4QFY12, while its reported PAT

could be impacted as adjustments for one-time increase in liabilities would have

to be made along with provision for shortfall in 2Q/3QFY12. Reported PAT may not

truly reflect the company's performance.

12 April 2012 4


Coal India

Price review possible in 1QFY13, an important trigger

• The GCV-based pricing framework has been put in place since January 2012 and

the management reiterated that this would be revenue-neutral. We have not

factored in any positive/negative impact on this account in our estimates.

• We believe that there exists reasonable probabilities of price increases for FSA

sales in 1QFY13 as the cash outflows on wage negotiations is finalized.

• We continue to build in an increase of 12-13% on notified coal quantity to allow

the cost impact of wage negotiation. This would translate into an average price

hike of just 7% on overall revenue. Coal prices for the core sector were last revised

in October 2009.

Trend in price increases by COAL for notified category consumers (largely power)

Price revisions on base

Price Increase

10- year CAGR: ~4.5%

16%

11%

9%

10%

FY00

FY01

FY02

FY03

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

Source: Company/MOSL

Watch terms and signing of FSAs, government action to aid production rampup

• While the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) has stipulated that COAL sign fuel supply

agreements (FSAs) with the projects commissioned till December 2011 (~25GW)

by March 2012, the Independent Directors on COAL's Board was not in agreement

with such a commitment.

• The Presidential directive to COAL to sign FSAs is an uncomfortable scenario,

given the lack of clarity on actual increase in production at ground level. Also we

understand that the Board is given liberty to decide penalty on new FSA which

provide comfort to COAL.

• COAL can also resort to imports in case of shortfall insulating itself from a sizeable

downside in production if any. The cost of such coal will be pass through.

Valuation and view

• Assuming production growth of ~7% and price review on notified coal by 12-13%,

we expect COAL to report an EPS of INR28 (growth of 22%) in FY13. For FY14, we

estimate EPS at INR31 (growth of 12%). The impact of mining tax of ~INR4/share

can be set off through OB provisional (as not possible in IFRS). The stock trades at

12x FY13E earnings. It boasts RoE of 25%+, FY12-14E earnings CAGR of 17% and

FY12E dividend yield of ~3%. We reiterate Buy, with a target price of INR392.

12 April 2012 5


Coal India

COAL's cost structure provides huge leverage

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E

Dispatch (m tons) 374.6 400.8 415.2 424.5 432.5 459.4 495.7

Growth (% YoY) 7.0 3.6 2.2 1.9 6.6 7.9

Revenue (INR b) 346 408 467 526 610 714 772

Costs (INR b) 283 382 362 392 467 514 549

- Stores & Spares 44 49 49 52 58 68 73

% of total cost 15 13 14 13 12 13 13

- Staff cost 126 197 167 182 252 261 277

% of total cost 45 52 46 47 54 51 50

- Contractual Exp 26 33 37 46 55 63 66

% of total cost 9 9 10 12 12 12 12

- Overburden Removal Adj 16 22 31 26 32 37 40

% of total cost 6 6 8 7 7 7 7

- Others 71 81 78 85 71 85 92

% of total cost 25 21 22 22 15 16 17

EBIDTA (INR b) 63 26 105 135 143 200 223

Margin (%) 18.1 6.5 22.4 25.6 23.4 28.0 28.9

PAT (INR b) 43 56 98 109 145 177 198

Margin (%) 12.4 13.6 21.1 20.8 23.8 24.8 25.7

Per ton summary (INR/ton)

Revenue 924 1,018 1,124 1,239 1,415 1,555 1,558

EBITDA 168 66 252 317 331 436 451

PAT 114 139 237 257 337 385 400

12 April 2012 6


Coal India

Coal India: Financials and Valuation

Income Statement

(INR Million)

Y/E March FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E

Net Sales 466,843 526,162 609,616 714,209 772,321

Change (%) 14.4 12.7 15.9 17.2 8.1

Operating Expenses 362,112 391,542 467,018 513,945 548,824

EBITDA 104,730 134,619 142,598 200,264 223,498

% of Net Sales 22.4 25.6 23.4 28.0 28.9

EBITDA/ton 243.5 312.1 327.3 433.1 453.6

Depreciation 13,138 16,729 20,529 22,761 25,217

Interest 1,560 619 327 335 313

Other Income 52,408 47,962 70,501 83,241 93,634

Extra Ordinary 2,786 602 349 0 0

PBT 139,654 164,631 191,894 260,409 291,603

Tax 43,425 55,959 60,666 83,331 93,313

Rate (%) 31.1 34.0 31.6 32.0 32.0

PAT before Min. Int. 96,230 108,672 131,228 177,078 198,290

Reported PAT 96,230 108,672 131,228 177,078 198,290

Change (%) 362.7 12.9 20.8 34.9 12.0

Adjusted PAT 98,299 109,274 145,277 177,078 198,290

Change (%) 76.7 11.2 32.9 21.9 12.0

Balance Sheet

(INR Million)

Y/E March FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E

Share Capital 63,164 63,164 63,164 63,164 63,164

Reserves 194,789 270,008 367,525 486,168 619,022

Net Worth 257,952 333,172 430,689 549,331 682,186

Minority Interest 236 326 326 326 326

Loans 19,631 15,535 17,214 16,237 15,040

Defferd tax Liabiity -9,658 -8,732 -8,732 -8,732 -8,732

Capital Employed 268,161 340,301 439,497 557,162 688,820

Gross Fixed Assets 349,453 367,210 409,083 455,143 505,810

Less: Depreciation 229,144 238,781 250,186 262,831 276,840

Net Fixed Assets 120,309 128,429 158,897 192,312 228,969

Capital Work in Progress 22,107 22,180 29,886 34,643 40,376

Investments 12,819 10,635 8,824 7,321 6,074

Inventory 42,294 55,890 64,755 75,865 82,038

Debtors 21,688 30,258 35,056 41,071 44,412

Loans and Advances 86,762 99,225 107,641 133,517 146,553

Cash 390,778 458,623 595,779 735,303 848,383

Current Liabilities 346,202 408,178 471,385 544,656 615,213

Provisions 82,396 56,760 89,956 118,213 92,773

Net Curr. Assets 112,924 179,056 241,888 322,884 413,399

Application of Funds 268,161 340,301 439,497 557,162 688,820

E: MOSL Estimates

12 April 2012 7


Coal India

Coal India: Financials and Valuation

Ratios

Y/E March 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E

Basic (INR) 15.2 17.2 20.8 28.0 31.4

Adjusted EPS 15.6 17.3 23.0 28.0 31.4

Growth (%) 76.7 11.2 32.9 21.9 12.0

Cash EPS 17.6 19.9 26.3 31.6 35.4

Book Value 40.8 52.7 68.2 87.0 108.0

DPS 4.7 5.3 7.6 9.3 10.4

Payout (incl. Div. Tax.) 30.4 30.8 32.9 33.0 33.0

Valuation (x)

P/E 19.2 14.9 12.2 10.9

Cash P/E 16.7 13.1 10.8 9.7

EV/EBITDA 12.3 11.1 7.2 6.0

EV/Sales 3.2 2.6 2.0 1.7

EV /m ton of Reserves 76.4 73.0 66.6 61.3

Price/Book Value 6.3 5.0 3.9 3.2

Dividend Yield (%) 1.6 2.2 2.7 3.0

Profitability Ratios (%)

RoE* 31.6 26.4 27.4 26.5 24.1

RoCE 60.1 54.3 49.3 52.3 46.9

Leverage Ratio

Net Debt/Equity (x) -1.4 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.2

*RoE is adjusted for OB reserves accounts, as appplicable under IFRS

Cash Flow Statement

(INR Million)

Y/E March FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E

PBT before EO Items 136,868 164,029 191,545 260,409 291,603

Add : Depreciation 13,138 16,729 20,529 22,761 25,217

Interest 1,560 619 327 335 313

Less : Direct Taxes Paid -43,425 -55,959 -60,666 -83,331 -93,313

(Inc)/Dec in WC 38,606 1,713 74,324 58,527 22,566

CF from Operations 146,747 127,132 226,059 258,701 246,385

(Inc)/Dec in FA -19,815 -17,830 -49,578 -50,818 -56,400

(Pur)/Sale of Investments 2,232 2,185 1,810 1,504 1,247

CF from Investments -17,583 -15,646 -47,768 -49,314 -55,152

(Inc)/Dec in Net Worth 1,512 159 14,049 0 0

(Inc)/Dec in Debt -1,854 -4,095 1,679 -977 -1,196

(Inc)/Dec in Differed Tax Liability -109 925 0 0 0

Less : Interest Paid -1,560 -619 -327 -335 -313

Dividend Paid -29,871 -33,611 -47,760 -58,436 -65,436

Others -3,455 -6,400 -9,124 -10,116 -11,208

CF from Fin. Activity -35,337 -43,641 -41,484 -69,864 -78,153

Inc/Dec of Cash 93,828 67,845 136,807 139,523 113,080

Add: Beginning Balance 296,950 390,778 458,623 595,430 735,303

Closing Balance 390,778 458,623 595,430 735,303 848,383

E: MOSL Estimates

12 April 2012 8


Coal India

N O T E S

12 April 2012 9


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Disclosure of Interest Statement

Coal India

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Group/Directors ownership of the stock Yes

3. Broking relationship with company covered No

4. Investment Banking relationship with company covered No

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