Haiti 2010: Possible scenarios after the earthquake ... - Club of Madrid

Haiti 2010: Possible scenarios after the earthquake
Context:
Six years after UN intervention in Haiti, due to the overthrow of President Aristide and the
elevated degree of violence and lack of control in February 2004, Haiti is now in a transition
stage. The current government of President Préval, has made great progress in terms of
security, recovering “public order”, but these advances
have not been sufficient to reestablish a social and
economic development and institutionalism agenda to
strengthen the State.
There is scarce respect for legislation among the people
and a lack of trust among citizens, which comes from a
low level of participation in social or political matters.
Institutions are weak with exception of the Presidency of
the Republic, and its economy is one of the most fragile in
Latin America 1 .
Source: digital journalism. This context is made more serious by the earthquake of January 12,
2010, which causes great material and human losses and makes a re-foundation strategy
necessary.
This re-founding implies the construction of public institutions through agreements and pacts
that will permit the creation of a stable political order, thus satisfying the immediate needs of
the Haitian people in face of the emergency. According to leaders consulted by the PAPEP on
February 2010, progress cannot be made without the support of
the international community during the next five years. Citizens
consulted feel anxiety and fear of the future.
On the other hand, Haiti is preparing for Presidential elections
programmed for November. Legislative elections were
postponed until April due to the earthquake. According to
focus groups held in February 2010, the elections are important
for the population, but they must first emerge from the crisis.
Both elections generate discussion on the guarantees and
transparency under which they take place, due to the number
of deaths caused by the l earthquake (200000) and the collapse
of the electoral organization apparatus and registry system.
Research process
Voice of the citizens: 8 focus
groups, 82 persons, 60% men,
40% women
50% well-off classes, 50% lessfavored
classes (PaP, 27 28
February. 2010, CRESFED)
Voice of the leaders:10
interviews to political leaders on
24, 25, 26 February and 1 March,
2010
In this context, Haiti presents two short-term dilemmas: How to concretize an agreement on
parliamentary renovation procedures, on the holding of elections and on the mechanism for
replacing the President? and, how to respond to the expectations of the Haitian population in
face of the emergency?
1 Salvador Romero Ballivian.” Political evaluation of Haiti” Joints PNUS, USAID and ACDI mission
report, to improve the Capabilities of the Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) Haiti. November 2009

Scenarios
Haiti Scenarios 2010-2011
Scenario 1: “The stalemate” In this scenario, the implicit agreement of
doing nothing prevails among political actors. Parliament’s mandate is not
renewed and constitutional reform is abandoned. There is the presence
of an enfeebled President who governs with difficulty by means of
Decrees in a political polarization context. There is restructuring of the
Government and partial inclusion of certain opposition parties. The
appropriation of the aid administration by certain political parties is
observed, especially with the proximity of elections. Civil society
participation is not fostered. The private sector manages to partially add
Critical Variables:
dynamism to the economy, but is obliged to do short-term planning in view of the uncertain
context. The immediate needs of the population are partially satisfied but a political horizon is
not built. A feeling of resignation prevails among Haitians.
General elections take place in a context of boycott by political parties, amid the indifference
of the population, with great technical difficulties and serious risks of political violence. A
weak, barely legitimate government wins, with greater difficulties for facing reconstruction
challenges.
Political
agreement
Response
capability in face
of
the
emergency
Scenario 2: “Chaos” In this scenario, violent disturbances due to a struggle for power prevails.
The main political actors attempt to impose their own visions with respect to the political and
institutional model that should prevail in the reconstruction period, and become incapable of
agreeing on parliament renovation procedures, holding of elections and on the mechanism for
replacing the President. No consensus is reached on the stability of political institutions
(political order). Diverse strategies are implemented to destabilize the government. An
absence of basic services is generated. The intensity of the inclement weather and the
difficulty of guaranteeing the agricultural cycle make the situation of the population even more
precarious. The feeling of resignation is transformed into anger, coming to a social explosion.

We observe violent disturbances on a background of political fragmentation and absence of
collective horizons. The President can be forced to leave power before the end of his mandate.
A stronger presence of the international community can be seen, whose intervention is
decisive for the reestablishment of order, the installation of a new political climate, and the
management of the transition to arrive at the swearing-in of new officials in charge of leading
the country.
Scenario 3: “The phoenix” In this scenario, there is the presence of a strong President who
enjoys strong support from ample sectors of the population, whose immediate needs are
satisfied since they find echo in presidential messages and actions, which generates hope. The
government is restructures with the objective of orienting its action toward coordination of aid
and execution of actions prioritized by the President, in an alliance with the private sector that
generates profits in a context of political stability. Parliament, now dysfunctional, is put aside.
The President governs by Decree. Political opposition cannot impugn the government’s
actions. The President can also achieve the construction of an institutional space, in which he
has an ample majority which provides him with governance instruments. Since the new power
scheme allows guaranteeing political stability and the beginning of the country’s
reconstruction, presidential elections pass slowly to a second plane. This opens the possibility
of an eventual lengthening of his mandate, and in the medium-term, the installation of a nondemocratic
order.
Scenario 4: “Commitment” In this scenario, the principal actors agree on the manner of
managing immediate constitutional terms in a progressive period that would allow the
construction of a minimum trust basis. The basic agreement attempts to:
i) Filling the Parliamentary void ii) Defining the immediate future of the constitutional reform
iii) Defining the conditions for holding presidential elections iv) Defining criteria for aid
management, so as to satisfy the needs of the population and give it new reasons for hope.
The minimum political agreement on procedures creates an environment of stability that will
allow avoiding the worst scenario. During the following months, all the active forces of the
country together with the support of the international community move forward to a socialpolitical
pact for the “re-founding of Haiti” prioritizing long-term development.
The earthquake has a long-term effect on the population that recovers hope and participates
in debates on the future of the country. One can observe the emergence of a Haitian society
based on solidarity and inclusion, and the emergence of a new democratic political order.
To arrive at Scenario 4, “Commitment”, political leaders must take into account the following
points:
Leave the prisoner scheme: Create an informal very low profile discussion venue with
privileged groups of Haitian personalities.
Build a vision of the future: Carry out a collective reflection and public debate process on
the re-founding of the country that would allow

Living together: Prioritize a reconstruction and recovery program of public spaces (parks,
sports, recreational, social and cultural activities.
Impact
Corollary
Seven months after the earthquake, President Préval published, on July 1, the Presidential
Decrees that see presidential and legislative elections for November 28. Last August 7, ended
the period for registration of presidential candidates with 34 candidates registered to the
presidency of Haiti in coming elections.
As to the humanitarian situation, UN agencies and other international organizations prepared
a balance of the humanitarian situation in Haiti, six moths after the quake. The balance by
international organizations is positive in general, but they express concern with respect to
Haiti’s short-term challenges. According to a source of Jesuit Refugee Services in Latin America
and the Caribbean, the Doctors Without Borders organization mentions in its report
“Emergency response after the Earthquake in Haiti, that their teams “see frustration and anger
grow (in the population) since their living conditions have not changed since the earthquake”.
On the other hand the Collective “Haïti Lavi 12-12” integrated by the organizations Caritas
International, Doctors of the World, Oxfam-Solidarité and UNICEF Belgium, point to the urgent
need of reinforcing the health sector in Haiti and of keeping up food aid to the affected, since
natural phenomena could cause considerable damages to the agricultural harvests.
In general terms, relevant international organizations to date note that “all the ills that were
prognosticated for the country after the earthquake” did not happen, such as epidemics,
generalized humanitarian crises, great crime and violence waves, chaos”… They give most of
the credit to the same Haitians who with their dignity, discipline and sense of solidarity were
the first to help the wounded and who continue to organize and work to answer to their own
needs”.