Current and Future Dimensions of India's Material ... - IGEP.in

TERI- GIZ event
on
Resource Initiative –
Leveraging efficiency to meet India’s needs
May 23, 2013
Ligia Noronha
Monika Dittrich
Arpita Khanna
Souvik Bhattacharjya

Dittrich, Giljum, Lutter, Polzin, 2012: Green economies around the world: Implications of resource use for development and the
environment, Vienna. Page50.

India
Germany
China
Average material consumption per capita in 2008
Averages World India China S. Korea Japan Germany OECD
Biomass 2.8 1.7 2.2 1.5 1.2 2.3 3.7
Nonmetal
Minerals
Fossil
fuels
4.5 1.4 8.5 8.7 4.3 6.8 9.4
1.9 0.7 2.3 4.4 3.8 5.2 4.9
Metals 1.0 0.2 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.5 1.4
total 10.2 4.0 14.2 15.8 10.2 14.8 19.4
• Own calculation based on Dittrich, 2012 (trade), SERI, 2011
(extraction), Worldbank, 2011 (population)

Dittrich, Giljum, Lutter, Polzin, 2012: Green economies around the world: Implications of resource use for development and the
environment, Vienna. Page 29

http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/Update45_data.htm
Advertising, and
the narrative of the
“good life”
Material
Demand
Drivers
Data Source:
McKinsey & Company,
2010
Rapid Urbanization: Rate of urbanization
has increased from 26% in 1991 to 30% in
2008. It is further expected to increase to
40% by 2030 (McKinsey 2010)
Source: JNNURM Directorate, Ministry of Urban Development and National
Institute of Urban Affairs (NIUA), 2011

Absolute biomass consumption
Biomass consumption per capita
In 2008,
17% of global population live in India
10.5% of global biomass extraction is consumed in India
Per-capita-consumption biomass, India‘s place in world is 147
• Own calculation based on Dittrich, 2012 (trade), SERI, 2011
(extraction), Worldbank, 2011 (population)

• Own calculation based on Dittrich, 2012 (trade),
SERI, 2011 (extraction), Worldbank, 2011
0.1% phosphate rock
8% limestone
87% construction minerals,
On the whole, India is
currently selfsufficient
with regard
to minerals
India is a net-importer, in
fertilizers, limestone
and several inorganic
chemicals such as
phosphorous pent
oxides
Import dependencies in
phosphates are high
with 93% net-imports
in consumption while
it is low in limestone
(2% net-imports
consumption)
In 2008,
- India consumes 5% of globally extracted
minerals
- per capita consumption of minerals, place
125 in world
- Average growth rate: +26% p.a.

• Own calculation based on Dittrich, 2012 (trade), SERI, 2011
(extraction), Worldbank, 2011 (population)
In 2008,
5.9 % of global fossil fuels extraction is consumed in India
Per-capita-consumption of fossil fuels, India‘s place in world is 100
Average growth rate: +15% p.a.

Av. growth +26% p.a.
Av. growth +15% p.a.
In 2008, India „consumes“ 3.2% of global metal extraction
In per capita-values, India‘s „consumption“ ranges on place 108 in 2008
• Extraction: SERI, 2011; trade: Dittrich, 2012; population: Worldbank,
2011

Future demand in India, all materials
Increase in material demand
until 2030 is about 2.5 to 3
fold, beyond that it is 4 to 5
fold
GOI data bases, Material specific projections
MFA based projections

• Domestic resources
• 97 % of all materials, consumed in India are
extracted within India.
▪ However, meeting a tripling demand with domestic
resources would mean that extraction has to increase
from currently around 4.5 billion tonnes up to more
than 13 billion tonnes.
• Materials are imported
▪ India net imports around 3 % of all materials
consumed. Meeting the increasing material demand
by imports raises severe issues of global availability

• India’s mining sector has one of the lowest
exploration spends (MoM 2011).
• The reserves for iron ore and bauxite in
Australia grew 150 to 200% between 1985
and 2005. In contrast, in India they
increased by 10-20% only
Source: Strategic plan, Ministry of Mines, Government of India

Metallic minerals
20000
0
17882
Iron ore
5982
208
India’s (unrealized)
mineral potential
(in million tonnes)
Industrial minerals
60000
40000
20000
40906
Lignite
6145 38
800 Manganese, Lead & Zinc, Chromite 685
600
400
200
0
203
32
430
97 109
4 3 7
Chromite Manganese Lead & Zinc
Resources Reserves Production
Bauxite ()
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
335
296
270
103
83
55 67 73
30
0.5 21
35
1 1 2 0.05 0.2 2
0
Resources Reserves Production
Coal
293497
300000
200000
118145
100000
533
0
Resources Reserves Production
Petroleum
4000
3000
3480
1000
757
2000
1000
593
13
Resources Reserves Production
500
38
0
Resources Reserves Production
Source: Minerals Yearbook 2011, Indian Bureau ofMiines
0
Reserves
Production

Increasing constraints in social
license to operate
MMDR bill adresses
some of these
constraints
Source: CSE
14

Source: IBM 2011, Ministry of
mines
Import dependency is projected to increase to 90-93% for oil, 11-45% for coal by
2031
High anticipated domestic demand combined with inadequate production will
increase import dependency for various minerals & metals.
Copper imports, for instance, are expected to increase 5 fold between 2009 and

Source: IMF data, WEO 2012, p 125

• At the height of the oil prices in July 2008, for example, the cost
of importing oil was almost 50% of its commodity exports; and
about 6% of GDP;
• As per estimates of the International Energy Agency (IEA), a
sustained $ 10/bbl oil-price increase will result in a loss of 1% of
India’s GDP and 2.6% increase in inflation in the following year
of the price increase
• In 2031, Energy import bill is expected to constitute a large
share of GDP (TERI: ~17% of GDP);
• High oil prices impact the poor disproportionately as costs of
food, transport rise steeply
• Economic risks to India exist both due to oil and metals
dependence, but in case of metals, political risks may be higher.

Concentration in production & reserves
Concentration at country level
Source: DEFRA and BIS (2012
Source: OECD (2010)
Concentration at company level
Metals
Share of
world
producti
on Country Mining company
Antimon
y 82-87% China
Hsikwangshan Twinkling
Star
Berylliu
m 81-90% USA Brush Wellman (Delta)
Palladiu
m 45-65% Russia Norilsk
Platinum 77-80%
South
Africa
Amplats-Implats-Lonnin
(Bushveld)
Lithium 60-80% Chile
Sociedad Quimica y Minera
de chile SA- Soquimich
(Salar d' Atacama)
Niobium 90% Brazil
Companhia Brasileira de
Metallurgia e mineracao
CBMM (Araxa)
Rare
earths 85-95% China
Baotou Iron & Steel
Company
Tantalu
m 60-70% Australia Sons of Gwalia
Tungste
n 75-84% China Jianxi Tungsten

• Use of reserve base for attaining political objectives:
• For instance, China’s recent ban on exports of rare earths. The
strategic control led to an increase in its price by approx. 300-700%
(US DoE 2010)
• Trade measures in resource-rich economies:
• Proliferation of trade distorting measures. Ukraine, Argentina,
China, Russia, and Tanzania are among the key countries in
applying such measures.
Growing Conflicts in mineral rich countries

• What materials can be in short supply beyond 2030?
• How well placed are we with regard to the materials needed for a more
sustainable way of life, e.g., renewable energy?
• Does India need to think about resource efficiency given its current low
consumption rates per capita but growing water , environmental and land
stresses?
• How much can we reduce the environmental and social footprint through
enhanced resource efficiency?
• What other transformations are required to ensure that the economy of
resources so achieved does not result in an increase in absolute
consumption as warned by Jevons in his seminal book The coal
question?