BFSCaseforIndy_Nov13

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Could an Independent Scotland afford to defend itself? Scotland’s share of UK defence expenditure included in the GERS numbers is £3.3bn The total value of the UK defence budget actually spent in Scotland is £1.9bn. The cost of defending an independent Scotland has been put at £1.8bn/year by the Royal United Services Institute in a Whitehall report although the current Scottish Government actually plan to spend £2.5bn/year. This is equivalent to that spent by similar sized countries with similar geographical characteristics and defence requirements (e.g. Denmark) and considerably more than others (e.g. Ireland at approx. £1.5bn). http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:N507BDE949F81D/#.Unp1pRBUb-s So in summary an Independent Scotland could adequately provide for its own defence, save £800m annually from what we are currently charged by the UK government for defence within GERS, AND be able to spend some £600m more on defence than is currently spent in Scotland by the UK MOD (with the job generation potential that goes with that). A Scottish defence force would also, for obvious geographical and economic reasons – oil and fisheries protection, have far more of a maritime focus than the current UK MOD. Hence the scope for shipbuilding spend in Scotland is actually larger with Independence. Oil The key point to note regarding oil revenues is that even without any Oil Scottish GDP is 99% of the UK average. Arguing about how much oil is left is like arguing about whether your lottery win is mega or merely life changing. Our neighbours have done just fine without oil (in many cases also without Scotland’s other great economic strengths in tourism, whisky or http://www.businessforscotland.co.uk/12-defence-factsthat-the-no-campaign-dont-want-you-to-know/ http://www.businessforscotland.co.uk/10-facts-about-scotlandsoil-and-independence/ fisheries either). Sweden, Finland and Denmark all are richer per head than the UK. (As are post-recovery Ireland and Iceland now as well). Scotland has a fairly well balanced economy with strengths in a number of sectors. Oil accounts for about 15% of the Scottish economy, far less than the share it represents of Norway’s economy. It’s also important to remember that the biggest cash generator for the UK as a whole is the financial services sector mainly based in the City of London, comprising about 10% of the UK economy. Oil is in the ground and it’s not going anywhere until we pump it out. The ‘services’ provided by the City of London are highly transportable and are being actively targeted by financial centres in Asia (Singapore, Shanghai etc) and Europe. It’s a brave person who would predict that the City of London will still be a mainstay of the UK economy longer than oil is contributing to the Scottish economy. According to research by Professor Alex Kemp of Aberdeen University, in 2010 the Scottish share of total oil production in the UKCS was more than 95% while for gas it was 58%. The Scottish share of total hydrocarbon production (including NGLs) was 80%. The Scottish tax share exceeded 90%.
He also suggests that Scottish and UK waters would be divided on a 'Median Line' principle which was the approach which was also used to determine the boundary between Scotland and the rest of the UK for fisheries after devolution in 1999. It is the same principle as the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the principle on which the rest of the North sea is divided. This would actually be more favourable to rUK than the line dividing Scottish and English legal jurisdiction. Although the exact positioning of the line could be subject to negotiation, there is very little oil close to any dividing line with the vast majority of the oil north of Aberdeen and potentially lucrative new fields opening west of Shetland. There is no real debate around whether the oil revenues from Scottish waters would accrue to Scotland or not - they would. Scotland’s Maritime Boundaries - Median Line Principal According to the UK’s Department of Energy and Climate change and Oil and Gas UK and the Scottish Government (basically anyone who isn’t Alistair Darling), there are an estimated 16-24 billion barrels of oil in known reserves which, at $100 per barrel, means at least £1.5 trillion worth of oil and gas still to be extracted. Put simply, less than half the value of known North Sea oil reserves have been extracted. The key question is how best to manage the remaining oil reserves to most benefit the Scottish economy now and in the future – continue to allow it to be spent by Westminster as previously, or invest it in the Scottish economy for the future. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0043/00435303.pdf The Fiscal Commission Working Group is an independent panel containing senior economists from around the world who regularly advise the UN, OECD, IMF and European Commission. Two were awarded Nobel prizes in Economics. They concluded that there should be both a short-term stabilisation fund and a long-term savings fund. Norway established its oil fund in 1990, although it did not start transferring money into the fund until 1996. The fund is now worth £450 billion, equivalent to £90,000 per person in Norway, and is the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world. According to Neil Kinnock, former leader of the Labour party: “In the end, Thatcher's governments prodigiously wasted those revenues, they did damn all; they didn't even have a couple of miles of motorway or a new hospital to show for it.” http://www.businessforscotland.co.uk/prominentbusinessman-challenges-darling-on-the-economy/ http://www.holyrood.com/2013/11/kinnocks-regret-over-squanderedpotential-of-oil-fund/ http://www.businessforscotland.co.uk/why-the-nocampaign-really-dont-want-a-scottish-oil-fund/ Gavin McCrone, former chief economic adviser to the Scottish Office (and author of the infamous McCrone Report) said if the UK had established such a fund 40 years ago, the country's "whole economic situation would have been different" and described the UK Government's failure to establish an oil fund as "one of the great missed opportunities of the last 30 years or so".
Page 1 and 2: The Case for Independence Who are B
Page 3 and 4: Revenue The average tax paid per he
Page 5: Deficit Despite higher spending, du
Page 9 and 10: Pensions Pensions come in a variety
Page 11 and 12: The number of MEPs sent to the Euro
Page 13 and 14: The Euro According to the Fiscal Co
Page 15: If the economic case for Independen

BFSCaseforIndy_Nov13

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