Future Megacities 2: Mobility and Transportation

JovisVerlag

ISBN 978-3-86859-274-0

• Urumqi

Casablanca • Tehran-Karaj •

• Hefei

Hyderabad •

Addis Ababa •

• Ho Chi Minh City

Lima •

Gauteng •


The Book Series “Research for the Sustainable Development of Megacities of Tomorrow” is

sponsored by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) through the

funding priority “Research for the Sustainable Development of Megacities of Tomorrow”. The

authors would like to thank the Ministry for this initiative, for the financial support, and for the

extraordinary opportunity to connect activity- and demand-oriented research with practical

implementation in various pilot projects targeting the challenges of Future Megacities.

The book series “Future Megacities” is published by Elke-Pahl-Weber, Bernd Kochendörfer,

Lukas Born, Jan Müller and Ulrike Assmann, Technische Universität Berlin. The series contains

the cross-cutting results of the nine projects. These results are the intellectual property of

the authors.

Volume 2 “Mobility and Transportation” of the book series is edited by Wulf-Holger Arndt,

TU Berlin. The editor would like to thank Jan Müller and Francisco Aguilera for their intensive

support of the editing process.


Elke Pahl-Weber, Bernd Kochendörfer, Lukas Born, Carsten Zehner

The Book Series "Future Megacities"

The Global Urban Future

The development of future megacities describes a new quality of urban growth, as the pace

and the dynamics of urbanisation today are historically unprecedented. At the beginning of

the twentieth century, only 20% of the world’s population lived in cities. Since 2010, however,

the share of urban-dwellers has risen dramatically to above 50%. By 2050, the world

population is predicted to have increased from 7.0 billion to 9.3 billion, and, by that time, 70%

of people will be living in urban areas, many of them in urban corridors, city- or mega-urban

regions [UN−DESA 2012; UN−Habitat 2012].

Urban areas contribute disproportionately to national productivity and to national GDP.

Globally, they concentrate 80% of economic output [UN−Habitat 2012; UNEP 2011]. Due to this,

urban areas are also very relevant in terms of energy consumption. Although cities cover only

a small percentage of the earth’s surface, 1 they are responsible for around 60−80% of global

energy consumption, and approximately 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions [UNEP 2011].

In the future, this will increasingly count for cities in so-called developing countries as they

will be responsible for about 80% of the increases in the global annual energy consumption

between 2006 and 2030 [UN−Habitat 2011]. Hence, cities are significantly contributing

to climate change while, at the same time, being the locations that have to deal with its

devastating consequences, because many of them are located along the coast, close to rising

sea levels, or in arid areas. Therefore, cities must take action to increase energy and resource

efficiency, as well as climate-change mitigation and adaptation.

As a growing phenomenon, megacities have a special role in this context and illustrate the

urban challenges of the future. These urban centres are not only reaching new levels in terms

of size, but are also confronted with new dimensions of complexity. Hence, they are facing

multifaceted problems directly affecting the quality of life of their inhabitants. In many

cases, indispensable assets—such as social and technical infrastructure, delivery of basic

services, or access to affordable housing—are lacking. Capacities for urban management and

legal frameworks tend to be chronically weak and are often insufficient when dealing with

rapid population and spatial growth. Moreover, excessive consumption of resources, such as

energy or water, further aggravates existing problems.

In many countries, medium-sized cities in particular, are experiencing extraordinary

growth rates. These “Future Megacities” are to be taken into consideration for sustainable

urban development strategies, because they still offer the opportunity for precautionary

action and targeted urban development towards sustainability [UNEP 2011].

BMBF’s Funding Priority on Future Megacities

With its funding priority “Research for the Sustainable Development of Megacities of

Tomorrow” the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) is focusing on

5


Index

5

Preface

Elke Pahl-Weber, Bernd Kochendörfer, Lukas Born, Carsten Zehner

Introduction

12

Climate Change and Sustainable Transportation in Megacities

Wulf-Holger Arndt, Xiaoxu Bei, Günter Emberger, Ulrich Fahl, Oliver Lah, Alexander Sohr,

Jan Tomaschek

Challenges and Strategies for Sustainable Mobility in Five

Megacities

25

39

59

78

94

Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam—Can HCMC Reach its CO 2

Targets in the Transport Sector?

Günter Emberger

Energy-efficient Transport Planning for Hyderabad, India

Tanja Schäfer, Angela Jain

Tehran-Karaj, Hashtgerd—Integrated Urban and Transportation Planning for GHG Emission

Reduction

Wulf-Holger Arndt, Norman Döge

Climate-protection Strategies for the Transport Sector of Gauteng Province, South Africa

Jan Tomaschek, Ulrich Fahl

Metrasys, Sustainable Mobility for Megacities—Traffic Management and Low-carbon

Transport for Hefei, China

Oliver Lah, Alexander Sohr, Xiaoxu Bei, Kain Glensor, Hanna Hüging, Miriam Müller

8


Outcomes

108

Mobility and Transportation Concepts for Sustainable Transportation in Future Megacities

Wulf-Holger Arndt, Xiaoxu Bei, Günter Emberger, Ulrich Fahl, Angela Jain, Oliver Lah,

Alexander Sohr, Jan Tomaschek

Appendix

123

142

144

The Projects of the Programme on Future Megacities in Brief

Authors

Imprint

9


HYDERABAD: Traffic in the old city is slow. [Zehner]


INTRODUCTION


Fig. 3 Development of population and car use in selected developing countries [Lakshmanan 2006]

Urban Development and Transport

For the first time in human history, more people live in cities than in rural areas. The trend

to urbanisation and further expansion of megacities will continue for decades to come. The

number of urban dwellers is increasing around the world [Figure 1 •], even in those countries

with stagnating or declining populations.

Especially in emerging and developing countries, cities are growing rapidly. The countrywide

population growth rates are generally decreasing; this is not the case for cities however.

Figure 2 • shows the dynamic of the population growth of megacities in emerging and developing

countries. Some cities have growth rates in the twelve-year period showing a 20, 30, or

even 50% increase [UN-Habitat 2013].

Transport and Climate Change

Striving for a more ecological development of existing cities and new urban development

should be an urgent priority in the global transformation towards sustainability. 2 Efficient

energy production and consumption are central questions in modern societies, especially for

urban agglomerations and megacities in developing and newly industrialising countries. Although

cities cover only 2% of the earth’s surface and house 50% of the world population, they

are responsible for 75% of global energy consumption, as well as approximately 80% of global

greenhouse gas emissions. Future megacities therefore offer strategic approaches for efficient

energy use and climate protection in all sectors of production, and especially in the field of

transport. Approximately 20 to 35% of GHG emissions are emitted in transport processes. In

residential areas, transport is the major cause of GHG emissions, with a share of around 50%.

Several societal trends lead to more traffic. Besides the growth of population and urbanisation,

car-oriented settlement structures, income growth, and new production methods, as

well as distance intensive trading relations, are key drivers for transport demand. As Figure

3 • shows, population growth and car use have a progressive correlation. Population growth

leads to a larger urban population because of urbanisation trends in developing countries. But

the growth of motorisation (motor vehicle fleet) and car use is much higher.

The main cause for transport demand growth is the interrelation between the transport

system and the long-term adaptation of settlement structures as shown in Figure 4 •.

14

INTRODUCTION


Fig. 4 Interrelation between transport and spatial structure development [Arndt 2011, 120]

The transport system influences the spatial accessibility. The capacities and velocity of

transportation systems were expanded to solve short-term traffic problems, but in the long

run this leads to a distance intensive spatial accessibility. The high average traffic speed of

the transport system enables longer travel distances in during the same time period. Moreover,

the time spent in traffic is relatively constant.

Figure 5 • shows the travel time budget in several cities. The range is between 0.85 and

1.7 hours. The differences are based on settlement or cultural (behavioural) conditions. Many

studies recorded that the travel time budget is constantly in the same area [see, for example

Mokhtarian/Chen 2003].

An infrastructure provision focused approach to urban development supports the development

of mono-structural land use, which separates functions like living, working, and

shopping and is characterised by low population density.

The increase of velocity is realised in particular by the use of individual cars. A car is able

to increase the average travel speed. Therefore, the user is able to travel further in the same

time with a car than with other means of transport. In addition, a transportation system

with high system speed goes along with high consumption of resources such as material,

energy, or land use.

The expansion of the transportation system, in particular of road networks, improves

the traffic performance in the short term just as much as it leads to an increase of resource

consumption and traffic impacts such as GHG emissions in the long run. This effect will be

accelerated based on the disproportionately high CO 2

emission of cars, as Figure 7 • shows in

the example for China. Cars have the highest specific carbon emission per mile and person,

compared with electric bicycles, bicycles, motorcycles, and buses.

Apart from the high demand for cars and the ecological impacts of car traffic, there is a

lack of efficient road networks and often low standards of public transport services in cities

in emerging and developing countries. The low quality of road surfaces is also problem for

suitable public transport, and rail-bound public transport services are generally not very

well developed.

15


F. Enhancement of traffic safety

F1. Establishment of a traffic safety audit system

F2. Elimination of traffic accident black spots

F3. Improvement of a licensing and vehicle inspection system

F4. Strengthening of the traffic enforcement system

F5. Strengthening of the first-aid system

G. Strengthening of transport the sector administration and management capacity

G1. Reform of transport-related organisations

G2. Promotion of private sector participation

G3. Improvement of the infrastructure development and management system

G4. Strengthening of planning capacity

G5. Securing of a development fund

As mentioned above, the 105 actions to overcome the HCMC’s transport challenges comprise

a series of “soft instruments”, such as awareness-raising campaigns, use of ICT (information

and communication technologies), demand management instruments, et cetera.

Nevertheless, the main core of the HCMC TPM is a major extension of the existing road

and highway network within, and around, HCMC. For these road infrastructure investments,

concrete realisation horizons are provided and the necessary funding is earmarked.

The TPM also includes a public transport improvement programme, where concepts for a

subway system are presented, but there the final decisions, financing, and realisation horizons

are far less certain compared with the road infrastructure extension programmes.

As can be seen in Figure 1 •, the following measures are planned to be constructed by

2020 [ibid.]. Approximately 1,114 km of new road infrastructure will be built; additionally, the

UMRT (urban mass rapid transit = metro system) network will be expanded to 138 km within

this time period. This results in a ratio of 1 km public transport network to every 8 km of road

network improvements.

In financial terms, the above-mentioned transport infrastructure investments are expected

to cost about 14,065 million US dollars in total [Figure 2 •].

One kilometre of road infrastructure costs, on average, about 8.33 million US dollars,

whereas one kilometre UMRT is estimated to cost about 25.04 million US dollars (ratio UMRT,

versus Road equal to 1:3.0). Currently (2012), only road infrastructure construction is occurring

at a significant level, the construction of UMRT (underground lines) depends heavily on

foreign financial backing, mainly from Japan and Spain (at present). It should be mentioned,

however, that since both these countries are presently experiencing their own serious financial

woes, no guarantees regarding the implementation of an UMRT System can be given.

Solutions: MARS—A Planning Tool for Traffic Simulation

Objectives and Function of MARS

In recent years, several studies have been carried out to support the above-mentioned Transport

Master Plan development. However, it has to be mentioned that authorities in Ho Chi

Minh City do not have an up-to-date and calibrated transport model available, due to time/

cost and data constraints.

28 CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY


Fig. 1

Planned transport infrastructure (km) in HCMC [JICA/MOT et al. 2004]

2002 2020 Increase

Roads Primary 391 698 307

Secondary 606 1,161 555

Expressways Urban — 45 45

Regional 1) — 207 207

UMRT Urban — 138 138

1) Including outside of the study area

Fig. 2 Estimated cost for transport infrastructure improvements in HCMC until the year 2020 [JICA/MOT et al. 2004]

Cost

US$ Million %

A. Ongoing/Committed Projects 811 5.8

B. New Projects • •

1) Roads 9,279 66.0

2) Traffic Management 160 1.1

3) Public Transport 3,455 24.5

4) Transport Environment 360 2.6

Total 14,065 100.0

Although several political documents exist, where transport-related objectives and targets

were listed—for example, “Preparing the HCMC City Metro Rail System” [MVA Asia Limited/SYS-

TRA et al. 2010]—no formal quantification as to whether these goals could feasibly be reached

were carried out based on model simulations.

Therefore, it was decided within the HCMC Megacity project to set up a strategic land-use,

transport-interaction model in order to be able to quantify the impacts of the above-mentioned

different transport strategies that are to be implemented in the HCMC TPM.

The model chosen was the dynamic land-use and transport model, Metropolitan

Activity Relocation Simulator (MARS) developed by Vienna University of Technology

[Pfaffenbichler 2003; Emberger/Ibesich 2006; Jaensirisak/Emberger et al. 2006; Mayerthaler/Haller et

al. 2009; Pfaffenbichler/Emberger et al. 2010; Emberger 2012]. MARS is a dynamic land-use and

transport-integrated model. The underlying hypothesis of MARS is that settlements and

activities within them are self-organising systems. MARS is based on the principles of

systems dynamics [Sterman 2000] and synergies [Haken 1983]. The development of MARS

began around fifteen years ago and was partly funded by a series of EU research projects.

The present version of MARS is implemented in Vensim®, a System Dynamics programming

environment.

MARS is capable of analysing policy combinations at the city/regional level and assessing

their impacts over a thirty year planning period.

The MARS model consists of a transport and land-use element and can be divided into a

series of sub-models as follows and as shown in Figure 3 •:

29 HO CHI MINH CITY


HYDERABAD: Even big roads of the city are often used by different modes of traffic. [Zehner]


Tanja Schäfer, Angela Jain

Energy-efficient Transport Planning

for Hyderabad, India

Challenges: Planning in a Fast-changing Environment

An Economically Booming Indian Megacity

Hyderabad is the capital of the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh. It has a population of approximately

6.8 million [Census 2011] and a spatial expansion of 650 km². It is thus the fourth most

populous city in India. As the city is simultaneously the economic centre of Andhra Pradesh,

it is attractive for migrants and is therefore also rapidly and almost uncontrollably growing

and absorbing the surrounding municipalities, foremost rural areas. Forecasts predict that

Hyderabad will reach a population of 10.5 million by 2015.

Economic growth—driven, in part, by having the highest number of Special Economic

Zones 1 of all Indian cities—is enabling higher living standards and modern lifestyles for the

rapidly emerging middle class. This is resulting in escalating energy and resource consumption

and degradation, which is also due to changes in the transport sector.

In terms of climate, Hyderabad is already characterised by weather extremes: flooding in

the monsoon season and severe droughts at other times. For the future, it is predicted that

climate change will lead to even more extreme events, like disastrous floods and extreme

droughts. Due to its location in a semi-arid area with few natural water resources but high

consumption, this will lead to significantly increasing water scarcity.

The research results for the city of Hyderabad described in this chapter were gained from

the research project “Sustainable Hyderabad, Work Package Sustainable Transport Planning

for Hyderabad” led by the PTV Group. As with the other endeavours in this series, this project

is part of the Future Megacities Programme, initiated and funded by the German Ministry

of Education and Research (BMBF). The project was coordinated by the Division of Resource

Economics at Humboldt University of Berlin. Besides the PTV Group and nexus, four other

German universities or research institutions were involved.

Fig. 1

Street scenes in Hyderabad [nexus Institute Berlin]

39 HYDERABAD


Hence, social and environmental aspects—including issues of energy-efficiency and mitigation

of greenhouse gases—are implicitly addressed by NUTP and CMP. In India, however,

no standardised methodologies exist yet, which specifically quantify environmental impacts

(energy-efficiency, air pollution, GHG emissions) ex-ante for different strategies. But

taking these effects into account is of great importance when designing and choosing the

most appropriate strategy for a “future-proof” and resilient transport system. Hence, the

purpose of the strategic transport planning tool (STPT), which was developed within the

project framework, is to fill precisely this gap. The following chapter gives a brief description

of this tool.

Solutions: Planning Tools and Case Studies to Support Energyefficient

Transportation

Given the political framework explained above, Hyderabad started the preparation of a

Comprehensive Mobility Plan, by first conducting a Comprehensive Transport Study (CTS) as

the empirical basis for the CMP. Creating such a basis is necessary because at the time of the

project, no current demand or supply data—not to mention a concrete transport model for the

actual situation—was available for the transport planning process in Hyderabad. However, given

the lack of methodologies and know-how on ex-ante analysis of environmental impacts of

different transport strategies, the CMP of Hyderabad will not be able to address these issues

appropriately.

Thus, the objective of the project was to provide planning organisations with a tool and

know-how that supports them in answering the following questions during the development-process

of the CMP for Greater Hyderabad.

· How can transport infrastructure be adopted most efficiently to take into account extreme

climatic events, which Hyderabad will face more frequently in future (adaptation planning)?

· What potentials for the reduction of energy consumption, GHG emissions, and air pollution

can be expected by certain measures in the transport sector (mitigation planning)?

Another objective, besides the provision of a tool, was to initiate local case studies, where

planning approaches from other countries were transferred to the Indian, or more specifically,

the Hyderabad context. These case studies were conducted in order to develop a better

understanding of the mitigation potential of different measures in Hyderabad, and to build capacities

of students and professionals on suitable mitigation measures, which are uncommon

in India at present. Finally, and importantly, they were conducted to gain knowledge on their

acceptance, and simultaneously encourage their acceptance by planners and local residents.

To make the best use of the case studies, they focused on typical problematic transport

situations of growing cities in emerging countries. These are: overloaded arterial roads and

insufficient public transport services.

Strategic Transport Planning Tool: Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change Impacts

The tool—including the methodologies—developed by PTV and its local research partners is

named the Strategic Transport Planning Tool (STPT) and consists of:

· a prototypical, multimodal transport model, set up with PTV software VISUM 3 and based

on secondary data from Hyderabad 4

44 CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY


· a method (partly implemented in an Excel-based assessment tool) to analyse local and

mid-term adaptation requirements, as well as city-wide mitigation potentials and adaptation

requirements of long-term transport strategies.

In the course of the project, the existing state-of-the-art tools—VISUM transport model

and assessment methodologies—were enhanced and modified to the Indian conditions and

project requirements based on input from our Indian associates, literature reviews, and own

empirical work.

In order to facilitate the design and implementation of an appropriate adaptation strategy,

the German research partner PIK 5 developed an approach to downscale the regional

climate-change effects to specific locations, in order to indicate which locations are likely to be

flooded in extreme torrential rain. This was done with the tool called CATHY. 6 The flood-prone

locations that were identified in this manner were subsequently integrated into the transport

model via a technical interface. To identify the most vulnerable and critical allocations for

the functioning of the transport and city system, where adaptation is most acutely needed,

an additional method was developed to model and assess these locations. Observations and

reviews of very limited number of studies dealing with this issue thus far lead to the assumption

that, in most instances, the roads are not completely blocked or flooded for an extended

period, but rather for a maximum of a few hours. For most of the day, the road capacity is only

reduced due to floods. In order to assess the adaptation requirement, this effect has to be

modelled according to the severity of extreme rainfall events in the future, and to the specific

conditions of the location. This is a challenging task given the lack of existing knowledge and

the limited scientific evidence on how extreme precipitation and flooding affect the transport

system, travel demand, and traffic flow—an interesting field for future research activities.

Even though all of the questions related to the impacts of extreme rain events or to travel

demand cannot be answered unequivocally at present, it is nonetheless beneficial for planners

and decision-makers to familiarise themselves with these issues in a structured manner;

particularly as the method is designed as a relative comparison.

Essentially, the impact analysis compares—for instance, with respect to the adaptation

planning—the traffic situation on a normal day without flooding (normal/base case) with the

situation when flooding occurs and the traffic situation on the affected roads is disrupted

(analysis case). For both cases, different calibrated transport models have to be set up in

order to reflect the different situations and derive the data input for the impact analysis.

The advantage of a relative comparison is that even when effects are difficult to distinguish

in their absolute quantity, the relative difference between the “base” and “analysis

case” can still be evaluated.

One special feature of the developed approach is that after modelling of the effects, emission

calculations (GHG and others) are carried out in VISUM directly with the newly embedded

Module“ HBEFA”, which is based on the latest version of the European Handbook of Emission

Factors for Road Transport [Keller et al. 2010]. Whereby, some parameters of the module, like

the fleet-mix, had to be adapted for Indian conditions.

The advantage of this integrated approach is that effects of flooding—like deteriorating

traffic flows or changes in levels of services (LOS)—can be considered more accurately and

with greater ease than in methods currently used. Thus far, emission modelling is based on

transport model output, but is undertaken externally to the transport model. This results in a

great deal of data exchange between the transport model and the emission model, and such

processes are usually iterative, and thus complex.

45 HYDERABAD


Capacity Development on Promotion of Walking

The Walkable Hyderabad Initiative, which was started by the project, has increased its

outreach and has been promoting walkability on many different stages—“on the street”, as

well as on academic and administrative level. These efforts were based on research activities

and done in co-operation with civil society and cultural organisations, academics, professionals,

and concerned citizens. The following provides an overview about the spectrum of

approaches that has been applied so far. The initiative was:

· connected with civil society organisations in Hyderabad in order to pool resources;

· interacted with other walking initiatives in India and Asia to share experiences;

· conducted numerous site inspections for analysing and documenting the current state

of pedestrian infrastructure in the city. This material is used to make the city authorities

aware of pedestrians’ grievances and works towards improvement of the infrastructure

and maintenance (activity led by the Right to Walk Foundation);

· maintained a dialogue with citizens about their mobility needs and their wishes towards

the future of transportation in Hyderabad;

· has discussed the importance of walking for sustainable urban development at scientific

conferences—in Hyderabad, in India, in other parts of Asia and all over the world;

· has initiated and hosted discussions, exhibitions, and other events concerned with the

future of Hyderabad;

· has trained students of urban planning and architecture—in co-operation with academics

and professionals of JNAFAU Hyderabad and TU Berlin to create walkable environments in

their future professions;

· has initiated and conducted various student exchanges and supervised theses with relation

to the topic of walking.

In order to sustain the topic and to address the challenges in the future, the Walkable Hyderabad

Initiative decided in 2012 to go to the next level. After years with a strong focus on

awareness-raising for a pedestrian-friendly city, the initiative wanted to concentrate more on

implementation of applicable solutions. Consequently, the Centre for Pedestrian Infrastructure

and Planning (CPIP) was formed in February 2013. It works as a network centre, bringing

together all pedestrian-related activities of Hyderabad. The centre is hosted by the School of

Planning and Architecture at Jawaharlal Nehru Institute for Advanced Studies. The formation

of the centre was realised at a point in time when Hyderabad’s urban landscape was about

to change once again due to the introduction of the metro system. Pedestrian access to the

future system is crucial for the success of mass transit in Hyderabad, and the new centre

dedicates itself to providing the necessary input to make the metro usable by everyone.

The purpose of CPIP is to impart training and conduct research for students/professionals

leading to capacity building in pedestrian infrastructure and public spaces usage. The first activity

after opening was a planning competition for students, which resulted in an exhibition

of planning solutions for one of the most congested stretches in the city: the stretch from

Lakdi-ka-pul to Mahavir Hospital junction—as a site that evokes memories of the past—draws

attention to the current crisis, and explores creative visions for a safe, healthy, and environmentally

friendly future of pedestrians in Hyderabad.

54 CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY


Policy Learning

As mentioned earlier, the developed planning and simulation tools (STPT) could not

be applied directly in the local planning process due to the lack of professional staff in

the planning bodies. Nevertheless, it was possible to develop capacities on measures

and methods of sustainable transport planning at the main planning bodies HMDA and

APSRTC. This was achieved through their intense involvement in the development of the

planning tools and of both case studies—for example, through the selection of the study

topic and area, contribution of data, participating at trainings on tools, and discussion of

results. One outcome of this capacity development, for example, is that HMDA will change

the standards for studies they outsource to consultants—e.g., traffic impact studies—in

such a way, that the quality of these studies must meet the quality of the case studies

implemented within the research project.

In the local political context, the project results were fed into the policy formulation process

in form of policy recommendations. These recommendations were discussed at a Policy

Dialogue Day on “Climate and Energy in a Complex Transition Process Towards Sustainable

Hyderabad”. The deliberation saw speakers seeking increased focus on controlling the impact

of climate change for a better city. Health Minister D.L. Ravindra Reddy appreciated the

concentrated work on urbanisation and announced the development of recommendations

for a draft policy that would help transform Hyderabad into a sustainable city. It was seen

as a welcome approach that the project considered the impact of climate change on the

city, including annual rainfall and heat waves, and helped to work out necessary responses.

Furthermore, Mr. Neerabh Kumar Prasad gave an overview of Hyderabad Metropolitan

Development Authority’s (HMDA) planning with the future in mind. At present, the planners

were contemplating changes in the master plan with regard to climate change aspects in the

infrastructure and building sector.

Concerning the Walkable Hyderabad Initiative, policy dialogue has resulted in more awareness

and in plans for a “Pedestrian Policy”. In April 2011, the “Greater Hyderabad Municipal

Corporation” (GHMC) introduced a special cell to deal with pedestrians’ problems. GHMC officials

invited the Right to Walk Foundation (R2W) and the Walkable Hyderabad Consortium to

participate. The policy aims to address standardised designs for footpaths and other aspects

as well as regulations regarding encroachment by parked vehicles and hawkers. In September

2011, GHMC started a pilot programme with model footpaths in five roads with a total length

of 100 km. This is still ongoing.

In April 2012, R2W—in cooperation with the Consumers Association of India (CAI) and

Vadaa, an NGO based in Hyderabad—organised a “Walkability Dialogue”, which was attended

by several government officers and GHMC commissioners. Subsequent to the “Walkability

Dialogue”, the project team was again requested by GHMC commissioners to take part in

the development of a “Pedestrian Policy” with the idea to develop “Walking Guidelines” for

Hyderabad, which includes necessary regulations for the building of sidewalks and that predominantly

addresses authorities, planners, architects, and property owners. It should serve

as a normative and applicable/practical guideline that enhances activities towards a sustainable

pedestrian infrastructure.

The project results were disseminated at various capacity building workshops—not only

at NIT Warangal, but also the Urban Mobility Conference in India 2012—and will be continued

with user-friendly brochures, booklets, and manuals that can be found at the links given in

chapter one.

55 HYDERABAD


Solutions: Compact URBAN FORM to Reduce Traffic

Issues and Challenges: Growing Traffic and Increasing Traffic-based GHG Emissions

In recent decades, the oil-producing countries have been spending a large share of their

income on reshaping and erecting the putative cities of tomorrow, whose transport systems

are planned to rely to a great extent on private motorization. On the contrary, most of the

agglomerations in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region have not been capable of

providing basic safe, affordable, and reliable transportation infrastructure to their populations.

Moreover, the municipalities, overwhelmed by massive population growth, were not

able to realign transport-planning policies to accommodate the fast-changing urban development

framework.

As a result, increased travel distances in the MENA region’s uncontrollably expanding

agglomerations are primarily tackled by the fast-growing stock of private vehicles, as well as

by the privately operated, only partly regulated, and insufficient public transport, which to a

great extent consists of mini-vans and shared taxis. This, from the environmental and social

point of view, unsustainable development of the urban transport system—particularly of the

public transport system—has fostered even more excessive reliance on private automobiles

[World Bank 2010].

In many developing countries, where the rates of motorisation are increasing rapidly, the

main coping strategy for the emerging problems is to enlarge the street infrastructure. Today,

Iranian cities are facing similar problems: in 1997, already 20% of all GHG emissions stemmed

from Tehran’s urban transport sector [PLS Ramboll Management 2003]. Furthermore, between

1996 and 2002, the number of vehicle kilometres travelled during congestion increased from

about 21 to 27% [World Bank 2010].

The former master plan of the Hashtgerd New Town also prioritised car traffic. The results

of a car-oriented policy are shown in Iran’s petrol consumption balance [Figure 5 •]. The petrol

consumption by transport is increasing consistently year by year, and in 2005 accounted for

over 50% of the total petrol products consumed.

Strategies and Solutions: Hard and Soft Policies

The Iranian government is pursuing a long-term strategy to transform the country into a

post-fossil society. One of the main instruments is price policy. Energy prices have risen dramatically

in recent years. As a result, energy consumption decreased in most of the societal

sectors, but not in transportation [Figure 5 •]. This price policy started in the transport sector

very late in 2008.

Following the strategy to reduce traffic-related CO 2

emissions, a mixed-use approach was

developed as the main element of an integrated urban transportation concept for Hashtgerd

City. Thus, in the case of a 35-ha pilot area (Shahre Javan), the project dimension tries to

elaborate an integrated transport concept. The guiding principle for the elaboration of a concept

for Hashtgerd and the 35-ha pilot area is to consider the interrelations between spatial

structure and traffic demand using innovative transport simulation software, such as VISE-

VA/VISUM. The enhancement of the model developed by partners at Technische Universität

Dresden (TU Dresden) was used for the optimisation of a traffic-reduced spatial structure for

the first time in this project.

62 CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY


Fig. 5

Consumption of petroleum products by sector, Iran 1974–2005 [Ministry of Energy Iran, Energy Planning

Department 2008]

Fig. 6

Possible instruments for implementing the chosen leitmotif (left hard and right soft policies, above push

and below pull measures) [Arndt 2011, 122]

● Limitation of parking space

● Exaltation of MT trip costs through

road design measures (e.g., speed

humps, bottlenecks)

● Access limitations through streetwidths

layout (one-way systems)

● Usage based apportionment of

external costs (eco-fuel tax)

● Exaltation of MT trip costs through

access limitations, speed limitations

● City/highway toll?

Integrated concept

● Pedestrian/PT

Privileging road way and path design

(e.g., wide footpaths and -ways, high

number of crossings, barrier freedom)

● High density foot path and PT network

● High density of PT stops

Mobility management

Mobility package

● Information on transport

● Infrastructure

● Campaigns

“Reducing traffic and increasing mobility” is the target envisaged. The main approach

focuses on a shift of mobility routines and the support of environmentally friendly means of

transport, through the provision of a modern, efficient public transport network, an information

network for alternative ways of movement, and different measures to delimit the attractiveness

of conventional, motorised individual traffic. The special situation as a New Town is the

chance to strongly influence the traffic behaviour of the new inhabitants towards sustainability.

Key elements of the transport concept are:

· support of the mixed land-use approach through adequate mobility systems,

· accessibility (social and area related),

· integration of all traffic means in transport and urban planning,

· support of environmentally friendly means of transport (slow modes, public transport),

63 TEHRAN-KARAJ


The Iranian guidelines for New Towns specify one parking lot per dwelling in housing areas

as a minimum. This would create an oversupply of parking lots and strong support for car use.

The motorisation rate in Hashtgerd New Town in 2027 will reach 125 cars per 1,000 inhabitants

[Paykadeh 2011]. Based on a four-person household, this leads to 50% household car

owners and parking lot factor of 0.5 parking lots per dwelling.

To promote the public transport use and CO 2

reduction, a decrease in car ownership is need,

and the goal should be 20% household car owners. This would also support the modal split in

the comprehensive plan for Hashtgerd New Town [Figure 12 •]. Thus, a parking lot factor of 0.2 is

an initial parameter of the transport concept for the 35-ha pilot area in Hashtgerd New Town.

Figure 17 • compares the CO 2

emissions impact of different parking lot factors. It shows the

deep decrease of CO 2

emission through the reduction from 1.0 to 0.2 of the parking lot factor.

Figure 13 • shows the space consumption for conventional parking lot demand with factor

1.0 parking lots per dwelling in the Hashtgerd 35-ha pilot area. The purple strips symbolise

the spatial demand of the parking areas. It illustrates that an extensive parking provision

remains, despite a compact urban form. The parking lots would cover all wetlands alongside

the access roads and some parts of the residential building areas.

All of these aspects show that a maximum parking lot factor should not be higher than 0.2

parking lots per dwelling.

Planning Tools and Data Availability

Several tools were used in the dimension “Mobility and Transportation” in the Young

Cities project. Apart from the traffic model software VISEVA/VISUM, tools for special uses

were developed.

Adapted Planning Tool with Low Data Availability

Models and Databases Developed with ArcGis

The software ArcGis is a programme that visualises geographic information and combines

spatial features with data (attributes). Basic data sets were developed for Hashtgerd and

adapted for different issues such as the accessibility of public transport.

Transportation Model Using the Software VISEVA+/VISUM

VISEVA/VISUM is a powerful tool for building digital transportation models. Based on the

so-called Four-Step Process with the steps trip generation, trip distribution, modal split, and

route assignment, it is possible to simulate future traffic flow and public transport users in

relation to socio-demographic developments. It was also used to calculate a traffic-optimised

settlement structure as a secondary output (VISEVA+) for the first time. These results may

be of use for a further traffic-minimizing spatial development of Hashtgerd New Town. The

integration of so-called paratransit services—for example, different taxis types—was a special

adaption for using this model in Iran.

CO 2

Calculation and Evaluation Model

A simple tool—Traffic Emission Calculation Tool (TECT)—was developed in the project for

the modelling of traffic-generated CO 2

emissions. This calculation is based on the integration

of information from ArcGis, VISEVA+/VISUM, and The Handbook of Emission Factors for

70 CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY


Road Transport for Germany, Austria and Switzerland [HBEFA 3.1]. By considering the Iranian

car fleet and the combination of traffic situations and vehicle sub-segments from the Handbook

(g CO 2

/km) for each vehicle in every possible traffic situation were calculated by Iranian

standards. With this base model, traffic volume and a modal split were calculated to forecast

the specific emissions for different scenarios.

The tools help to plan the transportation network, and calculate and optimise the traffic-based

energy consumption and CO 2

emissions of urban structures. They guarantee the

realisation of the ambitious sustainability goals of the New Town. The use of these programmes

and especially their combination has advantages:

· accurate future forecasts through combination and integration of the geographic information

system (ArcGIS) and traffic model (VISEVA+/VISUM) that complement each other,

· various analysis and modelling possibilities in the Hashtgerd area through development of

a dataset,

· enabling of multimodal planning,

· focused and cost-effective planning process based on/as a result of the analysis.

These programmes can easily be used by skilled Iranian researchers and the data and models

can be shared with other groups of researchers for their specific use.

Modelling Exercise and Results

Model Description

The transport model that was used in this project consisted of the Four-Step Process as

outlined above. In the case of Hashtgerd New Town, the “Dimension Transport and Mobility

of the Young Cities project is working together with the Transportation Planning Department

of the Technische Universität Dresden as a subcontractor. Technically, the working steps can

be divided into four main phases:

1. Digitalisation and Attributes

Line network in GIS format and research, as well as digitalisation and attributes of upper

structural data

2. Integration and Set-up of the Transport Model with the Programmes VISEVA+/VISUM (by TU

Dresden)

The model calculates traffic flow volumes for the following modes of transport:

· public transport,

· (individual) motorised transport,

· taxi system,

· pedestrians, and

· cyclists.

The programme VISEVA+ is used for the first three steps of the modelling process. Since

it is the latest programme version and the TU Dresden is directly involved in its development,

it was also used to calculate a traffic-optimised settlement structure for the first

time as a secondary output. These results were used for a further traffic minimising spatial

development of Hashtgerd New Town. The integration of so-called paratransit services—

for example, different taxis types—was a special adaptation for using the model in Iran.

Besides these additional functions, the result of this step was an origin/destination matrix

for the region on the basis of upper traffic cells, and a modal split that is derived from a

71 TEHRAN-KARAJ


Tools for Modelling Energy Efficiency and Greenhouse Gas

Mitigating Options in Gauteng

To quantify transport energy use and transport-related energy emissions, and moreover, to

quantitatively evaluate promising measures to mitigate transport and transport-related GHG

emissions, two transport tools—TEMT (Transport Emission Modelling Tool) and TIMES-GEECO

(The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System-Gauteng Energy and Emission Costs Optimisation)—

were developed as part of the EnerKey project. EnerKey is an abbreviation for Energy as a Key

Element of an Integrated Climate Protection Concept for the City Region of Gauteng and is

part of the broader megacities funding-scheme of the German Ministry of Education and Research

[BMBF 2013]. The EnerKey project is a German-South African collaboration, which aims

to develop and implement innovative projects in urban energy supply and use, in order to

improve the policy-making process to reduce energy consumption and GHG emissions in the

province, while keeping in mind the demands of society and budget constraints. 1 A detailed

representation of the two models, their assumptions as well as initial results can be found in

several publications [see, for example: Tomaschek 2013; Haasz et al. 2013; Tomaschek et al. 2012b; Kober

et al. 2011; Tomaschek 2010; Dobbins et al. 2009; Tomaschek et al. 2009]. The following section gives a

short overview of the two tools.

The TEMT Transport Emission Model

The TEMT emission model was created by TÜV Rhineland to generate real-world emission

factors for Gauteng and to visualise spatially transport emissions [Figure 3 •] [Kober et al. 2011].

TEMT operates using Visual Basic code. It is a combination of a transport emission tool based

on adjusted European research data on vehicle emissions, and a Geographic Information System

(ArcGIS) for visualisation of vehicle travel of the different vehicle types and their specific emissions

directly on a map. This software model incorporates emission factors for existing individual

vehicles, as well as emission factors for alternative vehicle technologies and fuel use. Four main

databases were used as an input for TEMT as listed below, according to Kober et al. [ibid.]:

· HBEFA 2.1 and 3.1: The Handbook of Emission Factors for Road Transport for Germany,

Switzerland and Austria [Keller et al. 2004; Keller et al. 2010]. The HBEFA database includes

emission factors, derived from test results for different vehicles classes such as passenger

cars, light- and heavy-duty vehicles, buses, minibuses, and motorcycles. The database

distinguishes different traffic situations, road type classes with different vehicular speed

ranges. Within the EnerKey Project, the database was extended by including alternative

vehicle technologies, like hybrid vehicles or dedicated biofuel engines.

· NATIS: National Traffic Information System of South Africa [DOT 2010]. The NATIS database

comprises all registered vehicles in South Africa. The database contains information on

the type of vehicles, their fuel type (petrol/diesel), engine size, and year of vehicle registration.

This database was used for model calibration for the timespan 2007–2010.

· MATSim: Multi-Agent Transport Simulation [MATSIM 2013]. MATSim software is used for

spatial distribution of vehicle travel.

· TIMES-GEECO: TIMES Gauteng Energy and Emission Costs Optimisation is an energy-system

model for Gauteng [Tomaschek et al. 2012b]. In this context, it has been used for vehicle

fleet information for future years—for example, vehicle activity by mode and technology,

transport fuel provision, and emissions—for different scenarios.

82 CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY


Fig. 3

Modelling approach used in TEMT illustrating the flow of information within the model and the spatial

visualisation of data [adapted from Kober et al. 2011]

DataPreparation

EmissionFactors

HBEFA

Assignmentbasedon:

-emissonstandard

-enginesizetypeofvehicle

-fueltypeofvehicle

VehicleFleet

NATIS/

TIMES-GEECO

Assignm entofthe

HBEFAclassesto

M ATSim linksin

Johannesburg/Gauteng

Traffi cFlow Data

M ATSim

W eighted em isson factorforatypicalvehicletype

inJohannesburg/Gauteng(e.g.,passengercar)

forparticulartraffi csituation

Linknetworkforaparticulartraffi csituation

and volum eofvehiclesperroad link

Assignmentbasedontheselected

traffi csituation foreach link,

vehiclevolum esm ultipliedby

emissionfactors

Em issonsfrom transporton each road linkkg/km /daily

TIMES-GEECO

GIS

The input data for the modelling was prepared by transforming “raw road network data”

in Johannesburg and Gauteng from a tabular format into a shapefile format applying Visual

Basic Script, and extrapolating data on vehicle volumes in peak hours in Johannesburg to daily

values (ADT). The emission factors from HBEFA database were extracted for every traffic

situation—for instance, road type and vehicular speed—for different vehicle types, by possessing

different emission concepts for diesel and petrol vehicles. As a result, emission factors

for CH 4

, CO, CO 2

, HC, NO x

, N 2

O, NH 3

, NMHC, PM, SO 2

pollutants were extracted and adjusted

to South African conditions based on the baseline vehicle fleet for Gauteng for the period

2007–2009 in the NATIS vehicle registration database [Kober et al. 2011].

The TIMES-GEECO Energy System Model

TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL EFOM System) is a flexible toolkit for analysing the energy

system on a technology-rich basis. The model can be applied to different regions or time

horizons and can be used for analysing the whole energy system or only parts of it. The basic

rationale of the model is minimising total system costs under perfect foresight using linear

optimisation, whereas further variants of the modelling framework exist. TIMES can be used

to analyse the impacts of policy measures, how to achieve policy goals, or to assess the future

role of energy technologies (e.g., vehicle technologies) or energy carriers (e.g., alternative

fuels). Its particular strength is inter alia the detailed representation of energy technologies

83 GAUTENG


Oliver Lah, Alexander Sohr, Xiaoxu Bei, Kain Glensor, Hanna Hüging, Miriam Müller

Metrasys, Sustainable Mobility

for Megacities—Traffic Management

and Low-carbon Transport

for Hefei, China

Challenges

Hefei—A Rapidly Growing Megacity

The rapid increase in motorisation in Hefei and other Chinese cities is driving growth in energy

demand and greenhouse gas emissions. Also, growing motorisation significantly affects the

quality of life in the city through pollution, noise, and an increased number of car-related

accidents [Schipper et al. 2000]. The Metrasys Project focuses on the Chinese city of Hefei, the

capital of Anhui Province, one of the numerous, and growing in number, “second-tier” cities

(typically provincial capitals with 2 to 7 million inhabitants). It is hoped that the findings from

Hefei may be transferable to other second-tier cities.

Hefei is located in the east of China between the Yangtze and the Huai Rivers, an advantageous

location connecting central and eastern China [Figure 1 •]. The city has an area of

7,266 km², of which 640 km² are urbanised, inhabited by 5.3 million people, 2.7 million (2005)

in the urban area. Hefei is an important centre for science and education in China, with more

than thirty universities, including the USTC, the Hefei University of Technology, and Anhui

University, and more than 200 research institutes. Furthermore, Hefei is one of seven cities

participating in the World Science and Technology Cities Union (WSTCU), and is active in

international science and technology exchanges and cooperation.

Hefei City is on the verge of megacity status and is likely to pass this threshold within the

next decade, if current growth rates continue [Figure 2 •].

China’s economy is growing rapidly; by the middle of this century, China is expected to

become the world’s largest economy in terms of GDP [Goldman Sachs 2010]. Hefei is part of

this rapid economic transformation, and as such, new opportunities will emerge for the city,

coupled with increasing pressure on transport, energy demand, and natural resources. This

is well illustrated by Figure 3 •, which shows the substantial expansion of the city between

1949 and 2009.

Transport Problems and Challenges

Driven by economic and population growth, global personal and freight transport demand is

forecasted to double by 2050, increasing demand for oil and raising its price [Shell 2008]. Hefei

has not avoided this development, with the city’s rapid population growth and economic

development causing increased demand for both personal and freight transport, which is

94 CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY


Fig. 1 (left) Location of Hefei in China [Statistical Yearbook of China 2008]

(right) Agglomeration Hefei [Hefei City Planning Bureau 2011]

Fig. 2 Hefei’s expected urban population in 2030 [Statistical Bureau of Hefei 2010]

District Population (000s) Land area (km 2 )

Central urban area 500 490

Dianbu 79−155 85−150

Shangpai 70−140 80−140

Nangang 50−80 55−80

Shuangdun 82−130 85−130

Fig. 3

Hefei’s urban development, 1949−2009 [authors]

95 HEFEI


The urban block design guideline describes seven sustainable approaches for planning and

constructing the cities of the future. Examples from Europe and the US are used to reveal development

structures and block sizes (a major influence on sustainable mobility development),

and compare urban networks. Block sizes in Chinese urban structures were analysed and a

possible urban design was proposed, using the PingGuo Community in Beijing as an example.

The guidelines were presented at various workshops in Hefei and submitted to the head

of the city’s planning authority. Independent to Metrasys, the Hefei City Planning Bureau

planned to produce separate guidelines for various areas such as traffic management, transport

planning, and urban building, which would then be used for the further development of

the city. The Chinese and German partners worked together to convince the Planning Bureau

to integrate the Metrasys guidelines into the official guidelines. These efforts bore fruit,

as in mid-2013, the Hefei City Planning Bureau and the Hefei Planning and Design Institute

produced their guidelines with the title “Hefei Green Traffic Planning and Design Guidelines”,

including essential elements of the Metrasys guidelines.

Financing Sustainable Urban Transport

To support the implementation of a sustainable urban mobility policy package, the Metrasys

project also provided guidance on international climate finance options to the Hefei

Planning Bureau. The paper developed on this provides an introduction to climate finance and

describes several funds in detail, which can be accessed by local governments to implement

sustainable transport projects. For each fund, the access criteria and the application procedure

are described, and examples of transport projects that have been funded are given.

Sustainable transport project can receive support from the Global Environmental Facility

(GEF). In the past, forty-six projects, which included components on sustainable transport

and urban systems, have been funded through GEF worldwide. The Clean Development

Mechanism (CDM) established under the Kyoto Protocol provides the option to raise financial

resources through certified emission reductions. However, the CDM procedure is very complex

and time consuming. Especially for transport projects, it is challenging to fulfil all of the

related requirements, which is why only very few transport projects receive financial support

via the CDM.

There are also several multilateral institutions that established climate funds accessible

for local transport projects. For China, this is primarily the Asian Development Bank (ADB)

with its Climate Change Fund and its Clean Energy Fund. Bilateral funds are offered by Germany

and Japan. In Germany, the International Climate Initiative (ICI) offers financial support

for low-carbon projects. Currently, a project on transport demand management in Beijing

receives financial support.

New climate finance options might come up in the near future, as in the UNFCCC negotiations,

new mechanisms to engage developing countries in mitigation options are discussed.

Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) are relatively new concepts that might

receive a stronger link to financial support in future.

The various options for international climate finance can reduce the potentially higher

implementation costs of transport projects that reduce GHG emissions. However, climate

finance resources are rather small compared to domestic funding, foreign direct investments,

or official development aid. Climate finance is to be seen as complementary funding source

that can facilitate the implementation of projects or measures that might otherwise not be

implemented. In theory, many climate funds are accessible by local authorities. In practice,

104 CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY


however, it is very difficult for cities to access some funding sources without support by the

national government or external experts. New options to obtain climate finance that are

emerging—for instance, within the NAMA concept—might be more accessible for local transport

projects. Even though financial benefits might be limited, seeking climate finance during

the transport planning process can encourage local practitioners to rethink old transport

planning principles and to include sustainability and GHG mitigation criteria.

Conclusion

The Metrasys project advised the Hefei municipal government throughout the entire policy

cycle and technology uptake process. The main points include:

· assessing the current status of urban transport, policy, and finance frameworks in the city,

· developing the scenarios for future traffic congestion, greenhouse gas, and harmful emissions,

· developing and implementing a traffic management system based on floating car data

(FCD),

· providing policy and planning advice through guidelines and policy papers, and

· providing advice on financing options for the city’s planned sustainable urban mobility

measures.

The cooperation with the city administration and local industry partners was based on a

long-standing partnership, which allowed open and focused discussions. Vital for the success

of the project was the focus on the city’s specific needs regarding the solutions presented for

consideration, presented in a form most useful to city officials.

It is of course too early to say if and how the project impacted on future developments in

the city. The scenarios developed for this project at least indicate that if the policy measures

proposed and technology solutions implemented in the project have the potential to make

a substantial positive contribution to air quality, energy consumption, and greenhouse gas

emissions in the city and may also contribute to improved access and road safety.

References

China Urban Sustainable Transport Research Centre (2008): Sustainable Transport Development in Chinese Cities:

Challenges and Options. Beijing

De Palma, A./Lindsey, R. (2009): Traffic congestion pricing methods and technologies. Ecole Polytechnique.

Palaiseau

ECMT (2007): Cutting Transport CO2 Emissions: What Progress? http://www.internationaltransportforum.org/

Pub/pdf/07CuttingCO2.pdf, 24.03.2014

Fujii, S./Taniguchi, A. (2006): “Determinants of the Effectiveness of Travel Feedback Programs-a Review of

Communicative Mobility Management Measures for Changing Travel Behaviour in Japan”. In: Transport Policy 13

(5), pp. 339–48

Goldman Sachs (2010): BRICs Monthly. New York

Goodwin, P. (2008): Policy Incentives to Change Behaviour in Passenger Transport. OECD International Transport

Forum, Leipzig, May 2008. http://www.internationaltransportforum.org/Topics/Workshops/WS2Goodwin.pdf,

24.03.2014

Hefei City Planning and Design Institute (2008): personal communication.

Hefei City Planning Bureau (2011): Hefei City Planning and Transportation, Hefei

Hefei Public Transport Group Co. Ltd (2008): personal communication.

Hymel, K.M./Small, K.A./Dender, K.V. (2010): “Induced Demand and Rebound Effects in Road Transport”. In: Transportation

Research Part B: Methodological 44 (10), pp. 1220–41

105 HEFEI


Wulf-Holger Arndt, Xiaoxu Bei, Günter Emberger, Ulrich Fahl, Angela Jain, Oliver Lah,

Alexander Sohr, Jan Tomaschek

Mobility and Transportation

Concepts for Sustainable

Transportation in Future Megacities

This chapter describes comparisons of the projects’ results and gives some overall conclusions

on the aspects of stakeholder analysis, challenges and strategies, models and planning

tools as well as on the transferability of sustainable urban mobility solutions.

Summary Challenges, Strategies, and Measures

In all of the examined cities, very similar challenges were identified—in particular, rapid

population growth, high levels of migration from rural to urban areas, and the fast growth

of individual motorised traffic driven by increasing wealth. For example, the growth rates for

cars are between 15 to 18% per year in the megacity regions, compared to growth rates below

2% per year in Europe or the USA. 1 These high growth rates are the main driver of present

and future transport problems in these cities. In addition to the directly related problems of

energy consumption, road safety, noise, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, land use is a

major issue for road transport [Figure 1 •].

Economic development and rapid urbanisation are the key driving factors behind the

growth in transport demand, in particular in emerging countries. The creation of new workplaces

combined with major investments in infrastructure—transport, but also in production

and retail sector, housing, water supply, wastewater, energy supply, education—cause

immense migration streams from the countryside towards these megacity regions, and thus

form the key drivers of population growth in these regions.

Looking at the different cities, not only are the challenges they face are very similar, but

also the strategies to overcome these challenges—formulated by the authorities of these

megacities—are more or less identical, at least with regard to some basics: all cities have

analysed their status quo and realised that car-related development will be not a solution

to tackle their future problems. In their transport-related strategic documents, 2 they have

addressed their challenges. The formulated objectives to reduce car transport make clear that

the cities wish to create less carbon-intensive future transport systems. With regard to implementation

of policies and measures, one can see that the strategies are also very similar

in all megacity regions. Suggested first steps for implementations include: major increase of

road capacity (ring roads, fly overs, urban motorways, et cetera); improvements of motorised

traffic flows through traffic management systems; technological end of pipe solutions,

such as less fuel consumption for individual motor vehicles (e.g., hybrids). Only in one of the

investigated megacities—Gauteng—currently uses pricing instruments such as toll charges.

However, those systems offer the opportunity to limit private car use. In a second step

108 OUTCOMES


Area consumption [m²/person]

Fig. 1 Space consumption for different means of transport (m 2 /person) [Pfaffenbichler 2001]

70

60

60,0

50

40

30

32,1

20

10

7,7

17,6

12,0

0

1,0

usually ten or more years later, the strategies propose improving the public transport system.

Interesting here is that the suggested public transport systems are primarily based on very

expensive technologies—such as subway or sky-train systems—with the constraint that they

should not compete with the street space reserved for cars. This suggested order of implementation

(first an increasing of road capacity and then improving of public transport) is

similar to the solutions applied in Western societies some decades ago. The only difference in

these emerging economies is the pace and magnitude of the developments, which are much

higher and faster than we have ever experienced in the past. As an alternative approach in

some cities, an improvement of the existing bus system was established as Bus Rapid Transport

(BRT). These BRT systems—for example, in Tehran-Karaj, Gauteng, HCMC—increased the

public transport quality. But the capacities are not sufficient in many cases. In the case of the

Tehran-Karaj metropolitan area, not all parts of the system has dedicated/segregated bus

lanes and is therefore also affected by congestion.

Based on the spatial structure of segregation (urban sprawl) and social conditions (high

share of low income groups), the so-called paratransit services are highly important in the

mass transport in many developing and emerging countries. These services, offered mostly by

private car owners, are sometimes formal (taxis, line taxis, minivans), and sometimes informal

but tolerated by the officials (tuc tuc, rickshaws, trip sharing). The services do not often

meet high standards and have some traffic safety problems, but they are a demand-responsive

transport offer. Despite their weaknesses, paratransit services seem to be an adapted

system in developing and emerging countries. An improvement of service quality and vehicle

standards is needed.

The suggested policies—the order and magnitude of the implementation—are by no means

sufficient to reach the highlighted objectives of the megacities examined. The provision and

investment of (road) infrastructure will further increase the attractiveness of these cities.

This will change the existing land use, leading to urban sprawl that will result in higher

population growth and in immigration flows from the rural areas. In turn, this will put more

pressure on the (road) infrastructure, leading to more provision and investment in (road)

infrastructure. This vicious circle is the driving force behind the megacities around the world;

109


spatial distribution of pollutant emissions—for example, NOx, particulate matters—which

are a serious problem for living quality and health conditions in cities. Furthermore, TEMT

could provide information on the likely performance of alternative powertrain technologies—for

example, hybrid or electric vehicles, biofuels usage—in terms of their emissions

reduction potential.

The TIMES-GEECO model makes use of the energy system model generator TIMES,

which is a flexible toolkit to analyse the future perspectives of technologies and pathways

to achieve political and environmental targets based on a detailed, technology focused

bottom-up representation of the energy system. There are many applications of the model,

which cover a broad range from local models for rural villages to world models. Obviously,

the spatial, technical, and temporal resolution of such a model depends on the research

question to be analysed.

Based on the flexible background of the TIMES modelling framework, in general, and

the particular adaptations considering the characteristics of developing countries already

made in TIMES-GEECO, it seems reasonable that the model could be transferred to further

integrated modelling applications. It would be easy to achieve the transfer of TIMES-GEE-

CO to other provinces or metros in South Africa, which obviously show a similar structure

as Gauteng and comparable data availability to those used in the EnerKey project. A

further option could be a national energy system model with sub-national regions—possibly

down to municipal level—which considers the regional availability of resources,

local energy targets, and socio-economics. That would make it possible to align national,

provincial, and local energy planning and climate protection strategies. On the other hand,

territorial (decentralised) small-scale applications of the model would also be feasible—for

example, for a hospital or industrial area. The TIMES-GEECO energy system model could

also be transferred to other regions in the world to show how to reach climate targets

in a cost-efficient and achievable manner, which includes explicit consideration of the

characteristics of developing countries, such as rapid socio-economic growth and income

inequality. Herein, TIMES-GEECO has particular strengths in analysing optimal allocations

of biogenic resources and analysing the perspectives of alternative fuels and powertrains,

such as electric mobility.

Floating Car Data for Hefei, China

A good example of a sustainable urban mobility measure that has high transferability potential

is traffic management based on floating car data (FCD) as part of a wider low-carbon

transport concept, as implemented in Hefei as part of the Metrasys project.

Floating car data describes a system in which a selection of vehicles (in Hefei

2,000)—“floating cars”— travelling in city traffic are outfitted with special equipment that

measures the vehicle’s current location, speed, and direction, and wirelessly transmits this

data to a central server. Using this data, the current traffic situation can be qualified and made

available to road users via special navigation units that are able to receive this information and

use it to divert users around congested areas, relieving congestion and reducing air pollutant

emissions. In addition to the real-time advantages, the FCD information can be stored and

used by decision-makers as a reference for planning and technical work, as is the case in Hefei.

Hefei’s FCD system could potentially serve as an archetype for other such systems in other

cities: it is easy to implement and uses low-cost technology. More recent FCD implementations

display the technology’s potential (gathering data and delivering information from/to

120 OUTCOMES


smart-phone equipped users, thus foregoing the cost and effort of selecting and outfitting

floating cars). FCD systems are enablers for more comprehensive traffic management

systems. Thus, it is not an efficiency measure itself, but a vital step towards a number of

measures—such as bus priority at traffic lights, and congestion reduction and traffic diversion

to improve the efficiency of the road network. The actual potential with regard to emissions

reductions very much depends on the framework in which these traffic management measures

are embedded, as explored in the Hefei section of this volume.

FCD’s transferability to other Chinese cities is especially high, not only because of the

obvious framework-condition similarities shared by Chinese cities, but also more specifically

because Hefei is one of many “second-tier” Chinese cities. These cities share the characteristics

of rapidly growing populations (two to seven million inhabitants) and motorisation

rates, with attendant growth in negative external effects and stress on infrastructure

capacity. Thus, measures that address these problems in one second-tier city are likely to be

transferable to others.

Key element to the success of the system with regard to sustainable development is the

integration of traffic management into a wider concept of sustainable urban mobility on

which the Metrasys project provided advice to the city administration.

Conclusion

One of the key drivers of GHG emission is traffic-related CO 2

emissions. Car ownership of primarily

fossil fuel vehicles is dramatically increasing in developing and emerging countries. In

addition, local emissions based on car traffic lead to enormous health problems—particularly

in high population concentrations, such as megacities. A radical reduction of private car use is

needed to meet sustainability in transport systems in megacities.

The experiences of the Future Megacities projects underline the importance of the interrelation

between transportation systems and settlement structure. In the long run, high

capacities in transport systems promote a spatial segregation, which increases the traffic

demand. Thus a vicious cycle starts.

The implementation of high-quality public transport is an important prerequisite for reducing

car traffic. This system should have high accessibility and affordability for everyone. In addition,

paratransit systems are transport services that can easily be adapted to different local

conditions in megacities in other countries. Moreover, this kind of mass transport service with

demand-responsive offers could be a fitting approach for rural areas in industrial countries.

Adapted tools, which were developed in these future Megacities projects, could help to

display the complex interrelations between transport system and spatial structure. The

projects developed a broad set of such instruments—from user-friendly estimation tools to

elaborated complex models. Local conditions, such as data availability and budget, are important

in choosing the most applicable tool.

One of the main prerequisites for implementing a sustainable transportation concept is

participation that includes all stakeholders. These procedures should include all groups of the

local population, companies, NGOs, municipalities, and other planning authorities.

The Future Megacities projects demonstrated a mutual learning processes between

emerging and industrial countries to the topics of urban transportation. Experiences from

both sides should be discussed and included in the final concepts.

121


Transportation Management

in Hefei (China)

Context

Growing urbanisation and the increasing size of

metropolitan regions are a challenge, as well as an

opportunity, for the economic development and the

social balance of societies, particularly in rapidly

developing countries like China. The dynamic evolution

of Chinese cities poses special challenges for

transport concepts. According to the recent census,

5 million people live in Hefei (capital of Anhui

province, China), 3 million of whom live in the urban

area. Meanwhile, the rapid rise of car ownership in

Chinese cities significantly impacts people’s lifestyles,

as well as the environment. Traffic congestion

as a phenomenon has extended from first-tier cities

to second-tier cities such as Hefei. The rapid growth

of private car ownership has also led to the excessive

rise in road construction that remains insufficient to

keep up with traffic growth, while simultaneously

consuming valuable land resources in Hefei. Traffic

congestion is becoming ever more critical day by

day and causes more delays, fuel consumption, air

pollution, and CO 2

emissions. The rapidly growing

demand for mobility and housing has created new

challenges for urban administrative institutions,

which have to deal with an unprecedented urban

growth, thus leading to an urgent need for sustainable

development.

Objectives

The main objectives of the METRASYS project are

to contribute to climate protection through the

development of sustainable transport in highly

dynamic economic and urban regions. In particular,

the project aims to provide decision-makers with the

necessary means to effectively implement and guide

sustainable transport in Hefei. Furthermore, special

emphasis is placed on the general transferability of

development approaches on traffic management for

comparable megacities worldwide.

Approach

The project integrates different disciplines—for

example, spatial planning, transport science,

engineering science, and political science—and

addresses both planning and operational aspects

of the transport sector, through deployment of a

sophisticated geographic information system (GIS)

and an advanced traffic-management system. This

system also facilitates environmental evaluations

and analyses with an emission and pollution dispersion

model developed in this project. This, in turn,

provides valuable feedback to the transport and

urban planning process. Furthermore, the results are

used to explore opportunities for climate finance,

which provides additional incentives for sustainable

transport development. This comprehensive

approach was devised and has been implemented

in close co-operation with relevant Chinese stakeholders.

This contributes to a constructive and

concrete stakeholder dialogue, bringing all relevant

parties together, thereby addressing the challenges

of sustainable mobility in a holistic manner. The

project works in four main research areas related to

energy-efficient future megacities:

1. Technology Development: realisation of effective

concepts and implementation of intelligent traffic

management based on Floating Car Data (FCD)

and video detection for intersection monitoring

2. Model Development: energy efficiency and

reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by assessing

the environmental impact of the trafficmanagement

system and the planned urban

traffic development through the validation and

optimisation process using various models,

such as traffic models, emission, and immission

models

3. Transport Planning: capacity building and

accompanying urban and transport planning for

sustainable city development

134 PROJECTS IN BRIEF


Highways in Hefei [Zehner]

4. Climate Finance: identification of climate finance

opportunities for sustainable low-carbon transport

in Hefei

Solutions

· Intelligent traffic-management system based on

floating-car data, video detection, and broadcasting

with Digital Audio Broadcast (DAB)

· Model development for the assessment of

environmental impacts of traffic as a basis for

informed decision-making and climate-friendly

transport planning strategies

· Guidelines and manuals for best practice in

“traffic management”, “transport planning”, and

“urban block design”

· Finance options for sustainable transport

· Strategic design proposal for pedestrian-friendly

cities

Contact

Project: METRASYS—Sustainable mobility for megacities

Alexander Sohr | German Aerospace Centre, Institute

of Transportation Systems

Email: alexander.sohr@dlr.de

Webpage: www.metrasys.de

135


Governance for Sustainability

in Hyderabad (India)

Context

The population of Greater Hyderabad is predicted to

reach 10.5 million inhabitants by 2015. The rapid economic

growth of the emerging megacity has facilitated

higher living standards and modern lifestyles for

the emerging middle class. This is, however, accompanied

by escalating energy and resource consumption.

Furthermore, long-standing problems remain

unresolved. For example, approximately one-third of

the population lives below the poverty line and continues

to suffer from food, housing, education, and

health problems. In addition to this, climate change

is predicted to lead to extreme weather events, disastrous

floods, strong heat waves, extreme droughts,

and increasing water scarcity.

Given this natural, social, and economic context

of Hyderabad, the question arises: what can be

considered a reasonable response to the anticipated

impact of climate change?

Objectives

The overall objective of the project is to develop a

sustainable development framework for Hyderabad

by prioritising mitigation and adaptation strategies

for climate change and energy efficiency.

Focusing on the sectors of transport, food, land-use

planning, and the provision of energy and water, the

project pursues the following functional objectives:

1. To increase scientific knowledge and to generate

a database concerning climate change, its

mitigation and adaptation opportunities, as well

as to ascertain the potential of energy efficiency

through collaborative research

2. To identify institutional and policy solutions that

encourage a behavioural change in relevant actors

to address the problems (“getting the institutions

right”)

3. To design, propose, and implement demonstrable

strategies for climate-change adaptation

and mitigation, as well as for increased energy

efficiency

4. To ensure a wider adoption of these strategies

by all relevant stakeholders and actors through

appropriate communication, capacity building,

advocacy, policy dialogues, and dissemination

mechanisms

Approach

The project aims to achieve climate-change adaptation

and mitigation, as well as energy efficiency,

through the design of appropriate policies that

aim to change behaviour. Analysis of policies, of

lifestyles in private households, of authorities for

urban planning and administration, and of governance

structures were conducted in tandem with a

technical analysis in each of the focus fields: energy

and water supply, food and health, and transport.

The results of both analyses guided the conceptualisation

of the pilot projects. The project applies

a “discourse approach” to implement the necessary

changes in the institutions and government

organisations. The knowledge generated through the

research and the implemented pilot projects that

involve all the stakeholders and actors is embedded

in local discourse and dialogue.

Eight pilot projects have been implemented and

evaluated in the areas of urban planning, transport,

food, and clean and efficient energy provision, as

well as education for sustainable lifestyles. The

management options that evolved through pilot projects

have been transferred to relevant stakeholders

in Hyderabad with the help of capacity-building

measures. The consortium, involving partners from

scientific, governmental, non-governmental, and

private organisations, has formulated a Perspective

Action Plan (PAP) for Hyderabad and proposed its

adoption.

136 PROJECTS IN BRIEF


Slow motion in Hyderabad's old city [Zehner]

Solutions

· Climate Assessment Tool for Hyderabad (CATHY)

· Strategic Transport Planning Tool

· Street food-safety manual and on-site training to

strengthen a climate-friendly urban food-supply

system

· Collective action for fuel transition among the

urban poor

· Co-operative and technical solutions to increase

energy efficiency in irrigation

· Solar powered schools

· Education for sustainable lifestyles

· Community radio

Contact

Project: Climate and energy in a complex transition

process towards sustainable Hyderabad—mitigation

and adaptation strategies by changing institutions,

governance structures, lifestyles and consumption

patterns

Konrad Hagedorn | Humboldt-Universität Berlin,

Department of Agricultural Economics

Email: k.hagedorn@agrar.hu-berlin.de

Webpage: www.sustainable-hyderabad.de

137


Authors

Wulf-Holger Arndt is the head of the research unit “Mobility

and Space” in the Center of Technology and Society

(CTS) at Technische Universität Berlin. He studied transportation

planning in Petersburg, Dresden, and Berlin.

He wrote his doctoral thesis about the optimisation

of commercial and freight transport. Dr. Arndt is now

leading research projects on sustainable transportation

planning in an international context, climate change and

transport systems, as well as barrier-free mobility. He

also gives lectures on international urban transportation

and commercial transport in urban areas.

Technische Universität Berlin | wulf-holger.arndt@

tu-berlin.de

Xiaoxu Bei studied traffic engineering at the Tongji

University in Shanghai and at the University of Stuttgart,

and completed his Dipl.-Ing. in 2000. In 2001, he

began working for the German Aerospace Center (DLR).

From 2002–2004, he was project manager at the “Dr.

Brenner Ingenieurgesellschaft mbH” in Beijing. Since

2005, he has been back at the DLR as project manager

and research scientist. He was the German-Chinese coordinator

of the project METRASYS. He is also involved

in several other bilateral projects between China and

Germany, and conducts research in the field of traffic

management (ITS).

German Aerospace Center (DLR) Institute of

Transportation Systems Berlin | xiaoxu.bei@dlr.de

Norman Döge has a degree (Dipl.-Geogr.) in geography

from the Freie Universität Berlin, Germany. He currently

works at the Center for Technology and Society (CTS)

at Technische Universität Berlin in the research unit

Mobility and Space”. His research focuses on transportation

planning and research in urban areas of

developing countries, with special attention to informal

public transport.

CTS, TU Berlin | doege@ztg.tu-berlin.de

Guenter Emberger is Associate Professor in the

Research Center of Transport Planning and Traffic

Engineering at the Institute of Transportation at Vienna

University of Technology. Since 1990, he has worked in

the field of transport planning and policy, with a focus

on sustainable transport. His expertise lies in the development

of decision support tools based on qualitative

(such as the “Decision Makers Guidebook”) and quantitative

(co-developer of the strategic, dynamic land use

and transport interaction model MARS) methodologies.

He was involved in more than thirty international

projects covering Central and Eastern Europe, and South

East Asia. He led the work package “WP 5—Urban Transport”

in the Megacity Research Project TP Ho Chi Minh

City (BMBF Megacity Programme).

Vienna University of Technology |

guenter.emberger@tuwien.ac.at

Ulrich Fahl heads the Department of Energy Economics

and Systems Analysis at the IER, University of Stuttgart.

Fahl is an economist, model expert, and coordinates

numerous national and international projects.

He is responsible for research activities in the fields of:

energy and electricity demand, energy efficiency improvements,

energy and electricity modelling, integrated

resource planning, energy and transport and energy

and climate issues.

University of Stuttgart | ulrich.fahl@ier.unistuttgart.de

Kain Glensor has an Honours degree in (Mechanical) Engineering

(B.E. Hons) from the University of Auckland,

New Zealand, and an MA in (environmental) Political

Science from the Freie Universität Berlin, Germany,

in which he focused on renewable energy and climate

change policy. He has worked at the Wuppertal Institute

since 2013, where he holds the position of research

fellow, working on European and international research

projects on sustainable urban transport, energy efficiency

and sustainable development.

Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and

Energy | kain.glensor@wupperinst.org

Hanna Hüging works at the Wuppertal Institute on

international transport policy with a focus on energy-efficiency

and low-carbon transport. She has experience

in policies and measures for sustainable transport on

the local level. Her field of work comprises evaluation

of climate protection initiatives in the transport sector,

including the assessment of soft measures for emission

reduction. Prior to that, she gained experience in working

with local municipalities through various positions,

such as intern or student assistant.

Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and

Energy | hanna.hueging@wupperinst.org

142 AUTHORS


Angela Jain studied environmental and urban planning

and attained her PhD in 2004 from Humboldt-Universität

zu Berlin, Germany. In 2005, she joined the nexus

Institute for Cooperation Management and Interdisciplinary

Research as head of the unit “Infrastructure and

Society”. From 2006 to 2013, she managed the work

package “Communication and Participation Strategies”

of the international project “Climate and Energy

in a Complex Transition Process towards Sustainable

Hyderabad”, funded by the German Federal Ministry of

Education and Research (BMBF). Her areas of expertise

include: sustainable city development in emerging

countries, citizens’ participation, climate change awareness,

and local governance.

nexus Institute, Berlin | jain@nexusinstitut.de

Oliver Lah is a project coordinator at the Wuppertal

Institute, and focuses on climate change mitigation

policy analysis and sustainable urban mobility. He is a

lead author for the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report and

currently coordinates the SOLUTIONS project on urban

mobility solutions around the world, and the SUS-

TAIN EU-ASEAN project that facilitates collaboration

on climate and resource issues between Europe and

South-east Asia. Prior to that, Lah worked for the New

Zealand government, the Ludwig-Maximilian-Universität

München, and the Minister of State to the German

Federal Chancellor. He holds a Bachelor of Arts with

Honours in Political Science, and a Master of Environmental

Studies from Victoria University of Wellington.

Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and

Energy | oliver.lah@wupperinst.org

Miriam Müller has worked as a research fellow at the

Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and

Energy in the research group “Energy, Transport, and

Climate Policy” since 2012. In her work, she focuses on

strategies and measures for sustainable mobility, mobility

behaviour, and empirical social research. She holds

a degree in applied human geography and in art history.

Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and

Energy | miriam.mueller@wupperinst.org

consulting projects, which primarily deal with the

development and applications of procedures to assess

impacts—ecological, economic, and social—of transport

systems and strategies. Between 2008 and 2013, she

led the work group “Sustainable Transport Planning

for Hyderabad” within the research project consortium

“Sustainable Hyderabad”.

PTV Group Planung Transport Verkehr AG, Karlsruhe |

tanja.schaefer@ptvgroup.com

Alexander Sohr is a scientist at the German Aerospace

Center (DLR), and since 2005 researcher and project

leader at the Institute of Transportation Systems in

Berlin, Department “Traffic Management”. He has

worked on several national and international projects

(the first was in China in 2006). He was the leader of

the Future Megacities Project METRASYS. He studied

electrical engineering and computer science at

Technische Universität Berlin, Germany and completed

his degree (Dipl.-Ing.) in 2005. His main interests focus

on the field of Floating Car Data processing—from data

collection to visualisation, including prediction and data

fusion methods.

German Aerospace Center (DLR) Institute of

Transportation Systems Berlin | alexander.sohr@dlr.de

Jan Tomaschek works as a research associate at the

Institute for Energy Economics and the Rational Use of

Energy (IER) in the department Energy Economics and

System Analysis (ESA) at the University of Stuttgart.

His research focuses on the further development of energy

system models and the model-based formulation

of strategies for energy and climate change policies in

regional, national and international contexts.

University of Stuttgart | jan.tomaschek@ier.unistuttgart.de

Tanja Schäfer received her MA in Geography from the

University of Mannheim in 1997. After a one-year stay

abroad, she specialised in transport planning with

postgraduate education at the Office for Environmental

Education, Göttingen. Since 1999, she has

worked as project manager at PTV on research and

143

More magazines by this user