Future Megacities 2: Mobility and Transportation

• Urumqi
Casablanca • Tehran-Karaj •
• Hefei
Hyderabad •
Addis Ababa •
• Ho Chi Minh City
Lima •
Gauteng •

The Book Series “Research for the Sustainable Development of Megacities of Tomorrow” is
sponsored by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) through the
funding priority “Research for the Sustainable Development of Megacities of Tomorrow”. The
authors would like to thank the Ministry for this initiative, for the financial support, and for the
extraordinary opportunity to connect activity- and demand-oriented research with practical
implementation in various pilot projects targeting the challenges of Future Megacities.
The book series “Future Megacities” is published by Elke-Pahl-Weber, Bernd Kochendörfer,
Lukas Born, Jan Müller and Ulrike Assmann, Technische Universität Berlin. The series contains
the cross-cutting results of the nine projects. These results are the intellectual property of
the authors.
Volume 2 “Mobility and Transportation” of the book series is edited by Wulf-Holger Arndt,
TU Berlin. The editor would like to thank Jan Müller and Francisco Aguilera for their intensive
support of the editing process.

Elke Pahl-Weber, Bernd Kochendörfer, Lukas Born, Carsten Zehner
The Book Series "Future Megacities"
The Global Urban Future
The development of future megacities describes a new quality of urban growth, as the pace
and the dynamics of urbanisation today are historically unprecedented. At the beginning of
the twentieth century, only 20% of the world’s population lived in cities. Since 2010, however,
the share of urban-dwellers has risen dramatically to above 50%. By 2050, the world
population is predicted to have increased from 7.0 billion to 9.3 billion, and, by that time, 70%
of people will be living in urban areas, many of them in urban corridors, city- or mega-urban
regions [UN−DESA 2012; UN−Habitat 2012].
Urban areas contribute disproportionately to national productivity and to national GDP.
Globally, they concentrate 80% of economic output [UN−Habitat 2012; UNEP 2011]. Due to this,
urban areas are also very relevant in terms of energy consumption. Although cities cover only
a small percentage of the earth’s surface, 1 they are responsible for around 60−80% of global
energy consumption, and approximately 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions [UNEP 2011].
In the future, this will increasingly count for cities in so-called developing countries as they
will be responsible for about 80% of the increases in the global annual energy consumption
between 2006 and 2030 [UN−Habitat 2011]. Hence, cities are significantly contributing
to climate change while, at the same time, being the locations that have to deal with its
devastating consequences, because many of them are located along the coast, close to rising
sea levels, or in arid areas. Therefore, cities must take action to increase energy and resource
efficiency, as well as climate-change mitigation and adaptation.
As a growing phenomenon, megacities have a special role in this context and illustrate the
urban challenges of the future. These urban centres are not only reaching new levels in terms
of size, but are also confronted with new dimensions of complexity. Hence, they are facing
multifaceted problems directly affecting the quality of life of their inhabitants. In many
cases, indispensable assets—such as social and technical infrastructure, delivery of basic
services, or access to affordable housing—are lacking. Capacities for urban management and
legal frameworks tend to be chronically weak and are often insufficient when dealing with
rapid population and spatial growth. Moreover, excessive consumption of resources, such as
energy or water, further aggravates existing problems.
In many countries, medium-sized cities in particular, are experiencing extraordinary
growth rates. These “Future Megacities” are to be taken into consideration for sustainable
urban development strategies, because they still offer the opportunity for precautionary
action and targeted urban development towards sustainability [UNEP 2011].
BMBF’s Funding Priority on Future Megacities
With its funding priority “Research for the Sustainable Development of Megacities of
Tomorrow” the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) is focusing on
5

Index
5
Preface
Elke Pahl-Weber, Bernd Kochendörfer, Lukas Born, Carsten Zehner
Introduction
12
Climate Change and Sustainable Transportation in Megacities
Wulf-Holger Arndt, Xiaoxu Bei, Günter Emberger, Ulrich Fahl, Oliver Lah, Alexander Sohr,
Jan Tomaschek
Challenges and Strategies for Sustainable Mobility in Five
Megacities
25
39
59
78
94
Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam—Can HCMC Reach its CO 2
Targets in the Transport Sector?
Günter Emberger
Energy-efficient Transport Planning for Hyderabad, India
Tanja Schäfer, Angela Jain
Tehran-Karaj, Hashtgerd—Integrated Urban and Transportation Planning for GHG Emission
Reduction
Wulf-Holger Arndt, Norman Döge
Climate-protection Strategies for the Transport Sector of Gauteng Province, South Africa
Jan Tomaschek, Ulrich Fahl
Metrasys, Sustainable Mobility for Megacities—Traffic Management and Low-carbon
Transport for Hefei, China
Oliver Lah, Alexander Sohr, Xiaoxu Bei, Kain Glensor, Hanna Hüging, Miriam Müller
8

Outcomes
108
Mobility and Transportation Concepts for Sustainable Transportation in Future Megacities
Wulf-Holger Arndt, Xiaoxu Bei, Günter Emberger, Ulrich Fahl, Angela Jain, Oliver Lah,
Alexander Sohr, Jan Tomaschek
Appendix
123
142
144
The Projects of the Programme on Future Megacities in Brief
Authors
Imprint
9

HYDERABAD: Traffic in the old city is slow. [Zehner]

INTRODUCTION

Fig. 3 Development of population and car use in selected developing countries [Lakshmanan 2006]
Urban Development and Transport
For the first time in human history, more people live in cities than in rural areas. The trend
to urbanisation and further expansion of megacities will continue for decades to come. The
number of urban dwellers is increasing around the world [Figure 1 •], even in those countries
with stagnating or declining populations.
Especially in emerging and developing countries, cities are growing rapidly. The countrywide
population growth rates are generally decreasing; this is not the case for cities however.
Figure 2 • shows the dynamic of the population growth of megacities in emerging and developing
countries. Some cities have growth rates in the twelve-year period showing a 20, 30, or
even 50% increase [UN-Habitat 2013].
Transport and Climate Change
Striving for a more ecological development of existing cities and new urban development
should be an urgent priority in the global transformation towards sustainability. 2 Efficient
energy production and consumption are central questions in modern societies, especially for
urban agglomerations and megacities in developing and newly industrialising countries. Although
cities cover only 2% of the earth’s surface and house 50% of the world population, they
are responsible for 75% of global energy consumption, as well as approximately 80% of global
greenhouse gas emissions. Future megacities therefore offer strategic approaches for efficient
energy use and climate protection in all sectors of production, and especially in the field of
transport. Approximately 20 to 35% of GHG emissions are emitted in transport processes. In
residential areas, transport is the major cause of GHG emissions, with a share of around 50%.
Several societal trends lead to more traffic. Besides the growth of population and urbanisation,
car-oriented settlement structures, income growth, and new production methods, as
well as distance intensive trading relations, are key drivers for transport demand. As Figure
3 • shows, population growth and car use have a progressive correlation. Population growth
leads to a larger urban population because of urbanisation trends in developing countries. But
the growth of motorisation (motor vehicle fleet) and car use is much higher.
The main cause for transport demand growth is the interrelation between the transport
system and the long-term adaptation of settlement structures as shown in Figure 4 •.
14
INTRODUCTION

Fig. 4 Interrelation between transport and spatial structure development [Arndt 2011, 120]
The transport system influences the spatial accessibility. The capacities and velocity of
transportation systems were expanded to solve short-term traffic problems, but in the long
run this leads to a distance intensive spatial accessibility. The high average traffic speed of
the transport system enables longer travel distances in during the same time period. Moreover,
the time spent in traffic is relatively constant.
Figure 5 • shows the travel time budget in several cities. The range is between 0.85 and
1.7 hours. The differences are based on settlement or cultural (behavioural) conditions. Many
studies recorded that the travel time budget is constantly in the same area [see, for example
Mokhtarian/Chen 2003].
An infrastructure provision focused approach to urban development supports the development
of mono-structural land use, which separates functions like living, working, and
shopping and is characterised by low population density.
The increase of velocity is realised in particular by the use of individual cars. A car is able
to increase the average travel speed. Therefore, the user is able to travel further in the same
time with a car than with other means of transport. In addition, a transportation system
with high system speed goes along with high consumption of resources such as material,
energy, or land use.
The expansion of the transportation system, in particular of road networks, improves
the traffic performance in the short term just as much as it leads to an increase of resource
consumption and traffic impacts such as GHG emissions in the long run. This effect will be
accelerated based on the disproportionately high CO 2
emission of cars, as Figure 7 • shows in
the example for China. Cars have the highest specific carbon emission per mile and person,
compared with electric bicycles, bicycles, motorcycles, and buses.
Apart from the high demand for cars and the ecological impacts of car traffic, there is a
lack of efficient road networks and often low standards of public transport services in cities
in emerging and developing countries. The low quality of road surfaces is also problem for
suitable public transport, and rail-bound public transport services are generally not very
well developed.
15

F. Enhancement of traffic safety
F1. Establishment of a traffic safety audit system
F2. Elimination of traffic accident black spots
F3. Improvement of a licensing and vehicle inspection system
F4. Strengthening of the traffic enforcement system
F5. Strengthening of the first-aid system
G. Strengthening of transport the sector administration and management capacity
G1. Reform of transport-related organisations
G2. Promotion of private sector participation
G3. Improvement of the infrastructure development and management system
G4. Strengthening of planning capacity
G5. Securing of a development fund
As mentioned above, the 105 actions to overcome the HCMC’s transport challenges comprise
a series of “soft instruments”, such as awareness-raising campaigns, use of ICT (information
and communication technologies), demand management instruments, et cetera.
Nevertheless, the main core of the HCMC TPM is a major extension of the existing road
and highway network within, and around, HCMC. For these road infrastructure investments,
concrete realisation horizons are provided and the necessary funding is earmarked.
The TPM also includes a public transport improvement programme, where concepts for a
subway system are presented, but there the final decisions, financing, and realisation horizons
are far less certain compared with the road infrastructure extension programmes.
As can be seen in Figure 1 •, the following measures are planned to be constructed by
2020 [ibid.]. Approximately 1,114 km of new road infrastructure will be built; additionally, the
UMRT (urban mass rapid transit = metro system) network will be expanded to 138 km within
this time period. This results in a ratio of 1 km public transport network to every 8 km of road
network improvements.
In financial terms, the above-mentioned transport infrastructure investments are expected
to cost about 14,065 million US dollars in total [Figure 2 •].
One kilometre of road infrastructure costs, on average, about 8.33 million US dollars,
whereas one kilometre UMRT is estimated to cost about 25.04 million US dollars (ratio UMRT,
versus Road equal to 1:3.0). Currently (2012), only road infrastructure construction is occurring
at a significant level, the construction of UMRT (underground lines) depends heavily on
foreign financial backing, mainly from Japan and Spain (at present). It should be mentioned,
however, that since both these countries are presently experiencing their own serious financial
woes, no guarantees regarding the implementation of an UMRT System can be given.
Solutions: MARS—A Planning Tool for Traffic Simulation
Objectives and Function of MARS
In recent years, several studies have been carried out to support the above-mentioned Transport
Master Plan development. However, it has to be mentioned that authorities in Ho Chi
Minh City do not have an up-to-date and calibrated transport model available, due to time/
cost and data constraints.
28 CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY

Fig. 1
Planned transport infrastructure (km) in HCMC [JICA/MOT et al. 2004]
2002 2020 Increase
Roads Primary 391 698 307
Secondary 606 1,161 555
Expressways Urban — 45 45
Regional 1) — 207 207
UMRT Urban — 138 138
1) Including outside of the study area
Fig. 2 Estimated cost for transport infrastructure improvements in HCMC until the year 2020 [JICA/MOT et al. 2004]
Cost
US$ Million %
A. Ongoing/Committed Projects 811 5.8
B. New Projects • •
1) Roads 9,279 66.0
2) Traffic Management 160 1.1
3) Public Transport 3,455 24.5
4) Transport Environment 360 2.6
Total 14,065 100.0
Although several political documents exist, where transport-related objectives and targets
were listed—for example, “Preparing the HCMC City Metro Rail System” [MVA Asia Limited/SYS-
TRA et al. 2010]—no formal quantification as to whether these goals could feasibly be reached
were carried out based on model simulations.
Therefore, it was decided within the HCMC Megacity project to set up a strategic land-use,
transport-interaction model in order to be able to quantify the impacts of the above-mentioned
different transport strategies that are to be implemented in the HCMC TPM.
The model chosen was the dynamic land-use and transport model, Metropolitan
Activity Relocation Simulator (MARS) developed by Vienna University of Technology
[Pfaffenbichler 2003; Emberger/Ibesich 2006; Jaensirisak/Emberger et al. 2006; Mayerthaler/Haller et
al. 2009; Pfaffenbichler/Emberger et al. 2010; Emberger 2012]. MARS is a dynamic land-use and
transport-integrated model. The underlying hypothesis of MARS is that settlements and
activities within them are self-organising systems. MARS is based on the principles of
systems dynamics [Sterman 2000] and synergies [Haken 1983]. The development of MARS
began around fifteen years ago and was partly funded by a series of EU research projects.
The present version of MARS is implemented in Vensim®, a System Dynamics programming
environment.
MARS is capable of analysing policy combinations at the city/regional level and assessing
their impacts over a thirty year planning period.
The MARS model consists of a transport and land-use element and can be divided into a
series of sub-models as follows and as shown in Figure 3 •:
29 HO CHI MINH CITY

HYDERABAD: Even big roads of the city are often used by different modes of traffic. [Zehner]

Tanja Schäfer, Angela Jain
Energy-efficient Transport Planning
for Hyderabad, India
Challenges: Planning in a Fast-changing Environment
An Economically Booming Indian Megacity
Hyderabad is the capital of the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh. It has a population of approximately
6.8 million [Census 2011] and a spatial expansion of 650 km². It is thus the fourth most
populous city in India. As the city is simultaneously the economic centre of Andhra Pradesh,
it is attractive for migrants and is therefore also rapidly and almost uncontrollably growing
and absorbing the surrounding municipalities, foremost rural areas. Forecasts predict that
Hyderabad will reach a population of 10.5 million by 2015.
Economic growth—driven, in part, by having the highest number of Special Economic
Zones 1 of all Indian cities—is enabling higher living standards and modern lifestyles for the
rapidly emerging middle class. This is resulting in escalating energy and resource consumption
and degradation, which is also due to changes in the transport sector.
In terms of climate, Hyderabad is already characterised by weather extremes: flooding in
the monsoon season and severe droughts at other times. For the future, it is predicted that
climate change will lead to even more extreme events, like disastrous floods and extreme
droughts. Due to its location in a semi-arid area with few natural water resources but high
consumption, this will lead to significantly increasing water scarcity.
The research results for the city of Hyderabad described in this chapter were gained from
the research project “Sustainable Hyderabad, Work Package Sustainable Transport Planning
for Hyderabad” led by the PTV Group. As with the other endeavours in this series, this project
is part of the Future Megacities Programme, initiated and funded by the German Ministry
of Education and Research (BMBF). The project was coordinated by the Division of Resource
Economics at Humboldt University of Berlin. Besides the PTV Group and nexus, four other
German universities or research institutions were involved.
Fig. 1
Street scenes in Hyderabad [nexus Institute Berlin]
39 HYDERABAD

Hence, social and environmental aspects—including issues of energy-efficiency and mitigation
of greenhouse gases—are implicitly addressed by NUTP and CMP. In India, however,
no standardised methodologies exist yet, which specifically quantify environmental impacts
(energy-efficiency, air pollution, GHG emissions) ex-ante for different strategies. But
taking these effects into account is of great importance when designing and choosing the
most appropriate strategy for a “future-proof” and resilient transport system. Hence, the
purpose of the strategic transport planning tool (STPT), which was developed within the
project framework, is to fill precisely this gap. The following chapter gives a brief description
of this tool.
Solutions: Planning Tools and Case Studies to Support Energyefficient
Transportation
Given the political framework explained above, Hyderabad started the preparation of a
Comprehensive Mobility Plan, by first conducting a Comprehensive Transport Study (CTS) as
the empirical basis for the CMP. Creating such a basis is necessary because at the time of the
project, no current demand or supply data—not to mention a concrete transport model for the
actual situation—was available for the transport planning process in Hyderabad. However, given
the lack of methodologies and know-how on ex-ante analysis of environmental impacts of
different transport strategies, the CMP of Hyderabad will not be able to address these issues
appropriately.
Thus, the objective of the project was to provide planning organisations with a tool and
know-how that supports them in answering the following questions during the development-process
of the CMP for Greater Hyderabad.
· How can transport infrastructure be adopted most efficiently to take into account extreme
climatic events, which Hyderabad will face more frequently in future (adaptation planning)?
· What potentials for the reduction of energy consumption, GHG emissions, and air pollution
can be expected by certain measures in the transport sector (mitigation planning)?
Another objective, besides the provision of a tool, was to initiate local case studies, where
planning approaches from other countries were transferred to the Indian, or more specifically,
the Hyderabad context. These case studies were conducted in order to develop a better
understanding of the mitigation potential of different measures in Hyderabad, and to build capacities
of students and professionals on suitable mitigation measures, which are uncommon
in India at present. Finally, and importantly, they were conducted to gain knowledge on their
acceptance, and simultaneously encourage their acceptance by planners and local residents.
To make the best use of the case studies, they focused on typical problematic transport
situations of growing cities in emerging countries. These are: overloaded arterial roads and
insufficient public transport services.
Strategic Transport Planning Tool: Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change Impacts
The tool—including the methodologies—developed by PTV and its local research partners is
named the Strategic Transport Planning Tool (STPT) and consists of:
· a prototypical, multimodal transport model, set up with PTV software VISUM 3 and based
on secondary data from Hyderabad 4
44 CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY

· a method (partly implemented in an Excel-based assessment tool) to analyse local and
mid-term adaptation requirements, as well as city-wide mitigation potentials and adaptation
requirements of long-term transport strategies.
In the course of the project, the existing state-of-the-art tools—VISUM transport model
and assessment methodologies—were enhanced and modified to the Indian conditions and
project requirements based on input from our Indian associates, literature reviews, and own
empirical work.
In order to facilitate the design and implementation of an appropriate adaptation strategy,
the German research partner PIK 5 developed an approach to downscale the regional
climate-change effects to specific locations, in order to indicate which locations are likely to be
flooded in extreme torrential rain. This was done with the tool called CATHY. 6 The flood-prone
locations that were identified in this manner were subsequently integrated into the transport
model via a technical interface. To identify the most vulnerable and critical allocations for
the functioning of the transport and city system, where adaptation is most acutely needed,
an additional method was developed to model and assess these locations. Observations and
reviews of very limited number of studies dealing with this issue thus far lead to the assumption
that, in most instances, the roads are not completely blocked or flooded for an extended
period, but rather for a maximum of a few hours. For most of the day, the road capacity is only
reduced due to floods. In order to assess the adaptation requirement, this effect has to be
modelled according to the severity of extreme rainfall events in the future, and to the specific
conditions of the location. This is a challenging task given the lack of existing knowledge and
the limited scientific evidence on how extreme precipitation and flooding affect the transport
system, travel demand, and traffic flow—an interesting field for future research activities.
Even though all of the questions related to the impacts of extreme rain events or to travel
demand cannot be answered unequivocally at present, it is nonetheless beneficial for planners
and decision-makers to familiarise themselves with these issues in a structured manner;
particularly as the method is designed as a relative comparison.
Essentially, the impact analysis compares—for instance, with respect to the adaptation
planning—the traffic situation on a normal day without flooding (normal/base case) with the
situation when flooding occurs and the traffic situation on the affected roads is disrupted
(analysis case). For both cases, different calibrated transport models have to be set up in
order to reflect the different situations and derive the data input for the impact analysis.
The advantage of a relative comparison is that even when effects are difficult to distinguish
in their absolute quantity, the relative difference between the “base” and “analysis
case” can still be evaluated.
One special feature of the developed approach is that after modelling of the effects, emission
calculations (GHG and others) are carried out in VISUM directly with the newly embedded
Module“ HBEFA”, which is based on the latest version of the European Handbook of Emission
Factors for Road Transport [Keller et al. 2010]. Whereby, some parameters of the module, like
the fleet-mix, had to be adapted for Indian conditions.
The advantage of this integrated approach is that effects of flooding—like deteriorating
traffic flows or changes in levels of services (LOS)—can be considered more accurately and
with greater ease than in methods currently used. Thus far, emission modelling is based on
transport model output, but is undertaken externally to the transport model. This results in a
great deal of data exchange between the transport model and the emission model, and such
processes are usually iterative, and thus complex.
45 HYDERABAD

Capacity Development on Promotion of Walking
The Walkable Hyderabad Initiative, which was started by the project, has increased its
outreach and has been promoting walkability on many different stages—“on the street”, as
well as on academic and administrative level. These efforts were based on research activities
and done in co-operation with civil society and cultural organisations, academics, professionals,
and concerned citizens. The following provides an overview about the spectrum of
approaches that has been applied so far. The initiative was:
· connected with civil society organisations in Hyderabad in order to pool resources;
· interacted with other walking initiatives in India and Asia to share experiences;
· conducted numerous site inspections for analysing and documenting the current state
of pedestrian infrastructure in the city. This material is used to make the city authorities
aware of pedestrians’ grievances and works towards improvement of the infrastructure
and maintenance (activity led by the Right to Walk Foundation);
· maintained a dialogue with citizens about their mobility needs and their wishes towards
the future of transportation in Hyderabad;
· has discussed the importance of walking for sustainable urban development at scientific
conferences—in Hyderabad, in India, in other parts of Asia and all over the world;
· has initiated and hosted discussions, exhibitions, and other events concerned with the
future of Hyderabad;
· has trained students of urban planning and architecture—in co-operation with academics
and professionals of JNAFAU Hyderabad and TU Berlin to create walkable environments in
their future professions;
· has initiated and conducted various student exchanges and supervised theses with relation
to the topic of walking.
In order to sustain the topic and to address the challenges in the future, the Walkable Hyderabad
Initiative decided in 2012 to go to the next level. After years with a strong focus on
awareness-raising for a pedestrian-friendly city, the initiative wanted to concentrate more on
implementation of applicable solutions. Consequently, the Centre for Pedestrian Infrastructure
and Planning (CPIP) was formed in February 2013. It works as a network centre, bringing
together all pedestrian-related activities of Hyderabad. The centre is hosted by the School of
Planning and Architecture at Jawaharlal Nehru Institute for Advanced Studies. The formation
of the centre was realised at a point in time when Hyderabad’s urban landscape was about
to change once again due to the introduction of the metro system. Pedestrian access to the
future system is crucial for the success of mass transit in Hyderabad, and the new centre
dedicates itself to providing the necessary input to make the metro usable by everyone.
The purpose of CPIP is to impart training and conduct research for students/professionals
leading to capacity building in pedestrian infrastructure and public spaces usage. The first activity
after opening was a planning competition for students, which resulted in an exhibition
of planning solutions for one of the most congested stretches in the city: the stretch from
Lakdi-ka-pul to Mahavir Hospital junction—as a site that evokes memories of the past—draws
attention to the current crisis, and explores creative visions for a safe, healthy, and environmentally
friendly future of pedestrians in Hyderabad.
54 CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY

Policy Learning
As mentioned earlier, the developed planning and simulation tools (STPT) could not
be applied directly in the local planning process due to the lack of professional staff in
the planning bodies. Nevertheless, it was possible to develop capacities on measures
and methods of sustainable transport planning at the main planning bodies HMDA and
APSRTC. This was achieved through their intense involvement in the development of the
planning tools and of both case studies—for example, through the selection of the study
topic and area, contribution of data, participating at trainings on tools, and discussion of
results. One outcome of this capacity development, for example, is that HMDA will change
the standards for studies they outsource to consultants—e.g., traffic impact studies—in
such a way, that the quality of these studies must meet the quality of the case studies
implemented within the research project.
In the local political context, the project results were fed into the policy formulation process
in form of policy recommendations. These recommendations were discussed at a Policy
Dialogue Day on “Climate and Energy in a Complex Transition Process Towards Sustainable
Hyderabad”. The deliberation saw speakers seeking increased focus on controlling the impact
of climate change for a better city. Health Minister D.L. Ravindra Reddy appreciated the
concentrated work on urbanisation and announced the development of recommendations
for a draft policy that would help transform Hyderabad into a sustainable city. It was seen
as a welcome approach that the project considered the impact of climate change on the
city, including annual rainfall and heat waves, and helped to work out necessary responses.
Furthermore, Mr. Neerabh Kumar Prasad gave an overview of Hyderabad Metropolitan
Development Authority’s (HMDA) planning with the future in mind. At present, the planners
were contemplating changes in the master plan with regard to climate change aspects in the
infrastructure and building sector.
Concerning the Walkable Hyderabad Initiative, policy dialogue has resulted in more awareness
and in plans for a “Pedestrian Policy”. In April 2011, the “Greater Hyderabad Municipal
Corporation” (GHMC) introduced a special cell to deal with pedestrians’ problems. GHMC officials
invited the Right to Walk Foundation (R2W) and the Walkable Hyderabad Consortium to
participate. The policy aims to address standardised designs for footpaths and other aspects
as well as regulations regarding encroachment by parked vehicles and hawkers. In September
2011, GHMC started a pilot programme with model footpaths in five roads with a total length
of 100 km. This is still ongoing.
In April 2012, R2W—in cooperation with the Consumers Association of India (CAI) and
Vadaa, an NGO based in Hyderabad—organised a “Walkability Dialogue”, which was attended
by several government officers and GHMC commissioners. Subsequent to the “Walkability
Dialogue”, the project team was again requested by GHMC commissioners to take part in
the development of a “Pedestrian Policy” with the idea to develop “Walking Guidelines” for
Hyderabad, which includes necessary regulations for the building of sidewalks and that predominantly
addresses authorities, planners, architects, and property owners. It should serve
as a normative and applicable/practical guideline that enhances activities towards a sustainable
pedestrian infrastructure.
The project results were disseminated at various capacity building workshops—not only
at NIT Warangal, but also the Urban Mobility Conference in India 2012—and will be continued
with user-friendly brochures, booklets, and manuals that can be found at the links given in
chapter one.
55 HYDERABAD

Solutions: Compact URBAN FORM to Reduce Traffic
Issues and Challenges: Growing Traffic and Increasing Traffic-based GHG Emissions
In recent decades, the oil-producing countries have been spending a large share of their
income on reshaping and erecting the putative cities of tomorrow, whose transport systems
are planned to rely to a great extent on private motorization. On the contrary, most of the
agglomerations in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region have not been capable of
providing basic safe, affordable, and reliable transportation infrastructure to their populations.
Moreover, the municipalities, overwhelmed by massive population growth, were not
able to realign transport-planning policies to accommodate the fast-changing urban development
framework.
As a result, increased travel distances in the MENA region’s uncontrollably expanding
agglomerations are primarily tackled by the fast-growing stock of private vehicles, as well as
by the privately operated, only partly regulated, and insufficient public transport, which to a
great extent consists of mini-vans and shared taxis. This, from the environmental and social
point of view, unsustainable development of the urban transport system—particularly of the
public transport system—has fostered even more excessive reliance on private automobiles
[World Bank 2010].
In many developing countries, where the rates of motorisation are increasing rapidly, the
main coping strategy for the emerging problems is to enlarge the street infrastructure. Today,
Iranian cities are facing similar problems: in 1997, already 20% of all GHG emissions stemmed
from Tehran’s urban transport sector [PLS Ramboll Management 2003]. Furthermore, between
1996 and 2002, the number of vehicle kilometres travelled during congestion increased from
about 21 to 27% [World Bank 2010].
The former master plan of the Hashtgerd New Town also prioritised car traffic. The results
of a car-oriented policy are shown in Iran’s petrol consumption balance [Figure 5 •]. The petrol
consumption by transport is increasing consistently year by year, and in 2005 accounted for
over 50% of the total petrol products consumed.
Strategies and Solutions: Hard and Soft Policies
The Iranian government is pursuing a long-term strategy to transform the country into a
post-fossil society. One of the main instruments is price policy. Energy prices have risen dramatically
in recent years. As a result, energy consumption decreased in most of the societal
sectors, but not in transportation [Figure 5 •]. This price policy started in the transport sector
very late in 2008.
Following the strategy to reduce traffic-related CO 2
emissions, a mixed-use approach was
developed as the main element of an integrated urban transportation concept for Hashtgerd
City. Thus, in the case of a 35-ha pilot area (Shahre Javan), the project dimension tries to
elaborate an integrated transport concept. The guiding principle for the elaboration of a concept
for Hashtgerd and the 35-ha pilot area is to consider the interrelations between spatial
structure and traffic demand using innovative transport simulation software, such as VISE-
VA/VISUM. The enhancement of the model developed by partners at Technische Universität
Dresden (TU Dresden) was used for the optimisation of a traffic-reduced spatial structure for
the first time in this project.
62 CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY

Fig. 5
Consumption of petroleum products by sector, Iran 1974–2005 [Ministry of Energy Iran, Energy Planning
Department 2008]
Fig. 6
Possible instruments for implementing the chosen leitmotif (left hard and right soft policies, above push
and below pull measures) [Arndt 2011, 122]
● Limitation of parking space
● Exaltation of MT trip costs through
road design measures (e.g., speed
humps, bottlenecks)
● Access limitations through streetwidths
layout (one-way systems)
● Usage based apportionment of
external costs (eco-fuel tax)
● Exaltation of MT trip costs through
access limitations, speed limitations
● City/highway toll?
Integrated concept
● Pedestrian/PT
Privileging road way and path design
(e.g., wide footpaths and -ways, high
number of crossings, barrier freedom)
● High density foot path and PT network
● High density of PT stops
● Mobility management
● Mobility package
● Information on transport
● Infrastructure
● Campaigns
“Reducing traffic and increasing mobility” is the target envisaged. The main approach
focuses on a shift of mobility routines and the support of environmentally friendly means of
transport, through the provision of a modern, efficient public transport network, an information
network for alternative ways of movement, and different measures to delimit the attractiveness
of conventional, motorised individual traffic. The special situation as a New Town is the
chance to strongly influence the traffic behaviour of the new inhabitants towards sustainability.
Key elements of the transport concept are:
· support of the mixed land-use approach through adequate mobility systems,
· accessibility (social and area related),
· integration of all traffic means in transport and urban planning,
· support of environmentally friendly means of transport (slow modes, public transport),
63 TEHRAN-KARAJ

The Iranian guidelines for New Towns specify one parking lot per dwelling in housing areas
as a minimum. This would create an oversupply of parking lots and strong support for car use.
The motorisation rate in Hashtgerd New Town in 2027 will reach 125 cars per 1,000 inhabitants
[Paykadeh 2011]. Based on a four-person household, this leads to 50% household car
owners and parking lot factor of 0.5 parking lots per dwelling.
To promote the public transport use and CO 2
reduction, a decrease in car ownership is need,
and the goal should be 20% household car owners. This would also support the modal split in
the comprehensive plan for Hashtgerd New Town [Figure 12 •]. Thus, a parking lot factor of 0.2 is
an initial parameter of the transport concept for the 35-ha pilot area in Hashtgerd New Town.
Figure 17 • compares the CO 2
emissions impact of different parking lot factors. It shows the
deep decrease of CO 2
emission through the reduction from 1.0 to 0.2 of the parking lot factor.
Figure 13 • shows the space consumption for conventional parking lot demand with factor
1.0 parking lots per dwelling in the Hashtgerd 35-ha pilot area. The purple strips symbolise
the spatial demand of the parking areas. It illustrates that an extensive parking provision
remains, despite a compact urban form. The parking lots would cover all wetlands alongside
the access roads and some parts of the residential building areas.
All of these aspects show that a maximum parking lot factor should not be higher than 0.2
parking lots per dwelling.
Planning Tools and Data Availability
Several tools were used in the dimension “Mobility and Transportation” in the Young
Cities project. Apart from the traffic model software VISEVA/VISUM, tools for special uses
were developed.
Adapted Planning Tool with Low Data Availability
Models and Databases Developed with ArcGis
The software ArcGis is a programme that visualises geographic information and combines
spatial features with data (attributes). Basic data sets were developed for Hashtgerd and
adapted for different issues such as the accessibility of public transport.
Transportation Model Using the Software VISEVA+/VISUM
VISEVA/VISUM is a powerful tool for building digital transportation models. Based on the
so-called Four-Step Process with the steps trip generation, trip distribution, modal split, and
route assignment, it is possible to simulate future traffic flow and public transport users in
relation to socio-demographic developments. It was also used to calculate a traffic-optimised
settlement structure as a secondary output (VISEVA+) for the first time. These results may
be of use for a further traffic-minimizing spatial development of Hashtgerd New Town. The
integration of so-called paratransit services—for example, different taxis types—was a special
adaption for using this model in Iran.
CO 2
Calculation and Evaluation Model
A simple tool—Traffic Emission Calculation Tool (TECT)—was developed in the project for
the modelling of traffic-generated CO 2
emissions. This calculation is based on the integration
of information from ArcGis, VISEVA+/VISUM, and The Handbook of Emission Factors for
70 CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY

Road Transport for Germany, Austria and Switzerland [HBEFA 3.1]. By considering the Iranian
car fleet and the combination of traffic situations and vehicle sub-segments from the Handbook
(g CO 2
/km) for each vehicle in every possible traffic situation were calculated by Iranian
standards. With this base model, traffic volume and a modal split were calculated to forecast
the specific emissions for different scenarios.
The tools help to plan the transportation network, and calculate and optimise the traffic-based
energy consumption and CO 2
emissions of urban structures. They guarantee the
realisation of the ambitious sustainability goals of the New Town. The use of these programmes
and especially their combination has advantages:
· accurate future forecasts through combination and integration of the geographic information
system (ArcGIS) and traffic model (VISEVA+/VISUM) that complement each other,
· various analysis and modelling possibilities in the Hashtgerd area through development of
a dataset,
· enabling of multimodal planning,
· focused and cost-effective planning process based on/as a result of the analysis.
These programmes can easily be used by skilled Iranian researchers and the data and models
can be shared with other groups of researchers for their specific use.
Modelling Exercise and Results
Model Description
The transport model that was used in this project consisted of the Four-Step Process as
outlined above. In the case of Hashtgerd New Town, the “Dimension Transport and Mobility”
of the Young Cities project is working together with the Transportation Planning Department
of the Technische Universität Dresden as a subcontractor. Technically, the working steps can
be divided into four main phases:
1. Digitalisation and Attributes
Line network in GIS format and research, as well as digitalisation and attributes of upper
structural data
2. Integration and Set-up of the Transport Model with the Programmes VISEVA+/VISUM (by TU
Dresden)
The model calculates traffic flow volumes for the following modes of transport:
· public transport,
· (individual) motorised transport,
· taxi system,
· pedestrians, and
· cyclists.
The programme VISEVA+ is used for the first three steps of the modelling process. Since
it is the latest programme version and the TU Dresden is directly involved in its development,
it was also used to calculate a traffic-optimised settlement structure for the first
time as a secondary output. These results were used for a further traffic minimising spatial
development of Hashtgerd New Town. The integration of so-called paratransit services—
for example, different taxis types—was a special adaptation for using the model in Iran.
Besides these additional functions, the result of this step was an origin/destination matrix
for the region on the basis of upper traffic cells, and a modal split that is derived from a
71 TEHRAN-KARAJ

Tools for Modelling Energy Efficiency and Greenhouse Gas
Mitigating Options in Gauteng
To quantify transport energy use and transport-related energy emissions, and moreover, to
quantitatively evaluate promising measures to mitigate transport and transport-related GHG
emissions, two transport tools—TEMT (Transport Emission Modelling Tool) and TIMES-GEECO
(The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System-Gauteng Energy and Emission Costs Optimisation)—
were developed as part of the EnerKey project. EnerKey is an abbreviation for Energy as a Key
Element of an Integrated Climate Protection Concept for the City Region of Gauteng and is
part of the broader megacities funding-scheme of the German Ministry of Education and Research
[BMBF 2013]. The EnerKey project is a German-South African collaboration, which aims
to develop and implement innovative projects in urban energy supply and use, in order to
improve the policy-making process to reduce energy consumption and GHG emissions in the
province, while keeping in mind the demands of society and budget constraints. 1 A detailed
representation of the two models, their assumptions as well as initial results can be found in
several publications [see, for example: Tomaschek 2013; Haasz et al. 2013; Tomaschek et al. 2012b; Kober
et al. 2011; Tomaschek 2010; Dobbins et al. 2009; Tomaschek et al. 2009]. The following section gives a
short overview of the two tools.
The TEMT Transport Emission Model
The TEMT emission model was created by TÜV Rhineland to generate real-world emission
factors for Gauteng and to visualise spatially transport emissions [Figure 3 •] [Kober et al. 2011].
TEMT operates using Visual Basic code. It is a combination of a transport emission tool based
on adjusted European research data on vehicle emissions, and a Geographic Information System
(ArcGIS) for visualisation of vehicle travel of the different vehicle types and their specific emissions
directly on a map. This software model incorporates emission factors for existing individual
vehicles, as well as emission factors for alternative vehicle technologies and fuel use. Four main
databases were used as an input for TEMT as listed below, according to Kober et al. [ibid.]:
· HBEFA 2.1 and 3.1: The Handbook of Emission Factors for Road Transport for Germany,
Switzerland and Austria [Keller et al. 2004; Keller et al. 2010]. The HBEFA database includes
emission factors, derived from test results for different vehicles classes such as passenger
cars, light- and heavy-duty vehicles, buses, minibuses, and motorcycles. The database
distinguishes different traffic situations, road type classes with different vehicular speed
ranges. Within the EnerKey Project, the database was extended by including alternative
vehicle technologies, like hybrid vehicles or dedicated biofuel engines.
· NATIS: National Traffic Information System of South Africa [DOT 2010]. The NATIS database
comprises all registered vehicles in South Africa. The database contains information on
the type of vehicles, their fuel type (petrol/diesel), engine size, and year of vehicle registration.
This database was used for model calibration for the timespan 2007–2010.
· MATSim: Multi-Agent Transport Simulation [MATSIM 2013]. MATSim software is used for
spatial distribution of vehicle travel.
· TIMES-GEECO: TIMES Gauteng Energy and Emission Costs Optimisation is an energy-system
model for Gauteng [Tomaschek et al. 2012b]. In this context, it has been used for vehicle
fleet information for future years—for example, vehicle activity by mode and technology,
transport fuel provision, and emissions—for different scenarios.
82 CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY

Fig. 3
Modelling approach used in TEMT illustrating the flow of information within the model and the spatial
visualisation of data [adapted from Kober et al. 2011]
DataPreparation
EmissionFactors
HBEFA
Assignmentbasedon:
-emissonstandard
-enginesizetypeofvehicle
-fueltypeofvehicle
VehicleFleet
NATIS/
TIMES-GEECO
Assignm entofthe
HBEFAclassesto
M ATSim linksin
Johannesburg/Gauteng
Traffi cFlow Data
M ATSim
W eighted em isson factorforatypicalvehicletype
inJohannesburg/Gauteng(e.g.,passengercar)
forparticulartraffi csituation
Linknetworkforaparticulartraffi csituation
and volum eofvehiclesperroad link
Assignmentbasedontheselected
traffi csituation foreach link,
vehiclevolum esm ultipliedby
emissionfactors
Em issonsfrom transporton each road linkkg/km /daily
TIMES-GEECO
GIS
The input data for the modelling was prepared by transforming “raw road network data”
in Johannesburg and Gauteng from a tabular format into a shapefile format applying Visual
Basic Script, and extrapolating data on vehicle volumes in peak hours in Johannesburg to daily
values (ADT). The emission factors from HBEFA database were extracted for every traffic
situation—for instance, road type and vehicular speed—for different vehicle types, by possessing
different emission concepts for diesel and petrol vehicles. As a result, emission factors
for CH 4
, CO, CO 2
, HC, NO x
, N 2
O, NH 3
, NMHC, PM, SO 2
pollutants were extracted and adjusted
to South African conditions based on the baseline vehicle fleet for Gauteng for the period
2007–2009 in the NATIS vehicle registration database [Kober et al. 2011].
The TIMES-GEECO Energy System Model
TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL EFOM System) is a flexible toolkit for analysing the energy
system on a technology-rich basis. The model can be applied to different regions or time
horizons and can be used for analysing the whole energy system or only parts of it. The basic
rationale of the model is minimising total system costs under perfect foresight using linear
optimisation, whereas further variants of the modelling framework exist. TIMES can be used
to analyse the impacts of policy measures, how to achieve policy goals, or to assess the future
role of energy technologies (e.g., vehicle technologies) or energy carriers (e.g., alternative
fuels). Its particular strength is inter alia the detailed representation of energy technologies
83 GAUTENG

Oliver Lah, Alexander Sohr, Xiaoxu Bei, Kain Glensor, Hanna Hüging, Miriam Müller
Metrasys, Sustainable Mobility
for Megacities—Traffic Management
and Low-carbon Transport
for Hefei, China
Challenges
Hefei—A Rapidly Growing Megacity
The rapid increase in motorisation in Hefei and other Chinese cities is driving growth in energy
demand and greenhouse gas emissions. Also, growing motorisation significantly affects the
quality of life in the city through pollution, noise, and an increased number of car-related
accidents [Schipper et al. 2000]. The Metrasys Project focuses on the Chinese city of Hefei, the
capital of Anhui Province, one of the numerous, and growing in number, “second-tier” cities
(typically provincial capitals with 2 to 7 million inhabitants). It is hoped that the findings from
Hefei may be transferable to other second-tier cities.
Hefei is located in the east of China between the Yangtze and the Huai Rivers, an advantageous
location connecting central and eastern China [Figure 1 •]. The city has an area of
7,266 km², of which 640 km² are urbanised, inhabited by 5.3 million people, 2.7 million (2005)
in the urban area. Hefei is an important centre for science and education in China, with more
than thirty universities, including the USTC, the Hefei University of Technology, and Anhui
University, and more than 200 research institutes. Furthermore, Hefei is one of seven cities
participating in the World Science and Technology Cities Union (WSTCU), and is active in
international science and technology exchanges and cooperation.
Hefei City is on the verge of megacity status and is likely to pass this threshold within the
next decade, if current growth rates continue [Figure 2 •].
China’s economy is growing rapidly; by the middle of this century, China is expected to
become the world’s largest economy in terms of GDP [Goldman Sachs 2010]. Hefei is part of
this rapid economic transformation, and as such, new opportunities will emerge for the city,
coupled with increasing pressure on transport, energy demand, and natural resources. This
is well illustrated by Figure 3 •, which shows the substantial expansion of the city between
1949 and 2009.
Transport Problems and Challenges
Driven by economic and population growth, global personal and freight transport demand is
forecasted to double by 2050, increasing demand for oil and raising its price [Shell 2008]. Hefei
has not avoided this development, with the city’s rapid population growth and economic
development causing increased demand for both personal and freight transport, which is
94 CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY

Fig. 1 (left) Location of Hefei in China [Statistical Yearbook of China 2008]
(right) Agglomeration Hefei [Hefei City Planning Bureau 2011]
Fig. 2 Hefei’s expected urban population in 2030 [Statistical Bureau of Hefei 2010]
District Population (000s) Land area (km 2 )
Central urban area 500 490
Dianbu 79−155 85−150
Shangpai 70−140 80−140
Nangang 50−80 55−80
Shuangdun 82−130 85−130
Fig. 3
Hefei’s urban development, 1949−2009 [authors]
95 HEFEI

The urban block design guideline describes seven sustainable approaches for planning and
constructing the cities of the future. Examples from Europe and the US are used to reveal development
structures and block sizes (a major influence on sustainable mobility development),
and compare urban networks. Block sizes in Chinese urban structures were analysed and a
possible urban design was proposed, using the PingGuo Community in Beijing as an example.
The guidelines were presented at various workshops in Hefei and submitted to the head
of the city’s planning authority. Independent to Metrasys, the Hefei City Planning Bureau
planned to produce separate guidelines for various areas such as traffic management, transport
planning, and urban building, which would then be used for the further development of
the city. The Chinese and German partners worked together to convince the Planning Bureau
to integrate the Metrasys guidelines into the official guidelines. These efforts bore fruit,
as in mid-2013, the Hefei City Planning Bureau and the Hefei Planning and Design Institute
produced their guidelines with the title “Hefei Green Traffic Planning and Design Guidelines”,
including essential elements of the Metrasys guidelines.
Financing Sustainable Urban Transport
To support the implementation of a sustainable urban mobility policy package, the Metrasys
project also provided guidance on international climate finance options to the Hefei
Planning Bureau. The paper developed on this provides an introduction to climate finance and
describes several funds in detail, which can be accessed by local governments to implement
sustainable transport projects. For each fund, the access criteria and the application procedure
are described, and examples of transport projects that have been funded are given.
Sustainable transport project can receive support from the Global Environmental Facility
(GEF). In the past, forty-six projects, which included components on sustainable transport
and urban systems, have been funded through GEF worldwide. The Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM) established under the Kyoto Protocol provides the option to raise financial
resources through certified emission reductions. However, the CDM procedure is very complex
and time consuming. Especially for transport projects, it is challenging to fulfil all of the
related requirements, which is why only very few transport projects receive financial support
via the CDM.
There are also several multilateral institutions that established climate funds accessible
for local transport projects. For China, this is primarily the Asian Development Bank (ADB)
with its Climate Change Fund and its Clean Energy Fund. Bilateral funds are offered by Germany
and Japan. In Germany, the International Climate Initiative (ICI) offers financial support
for low-carbon projects. Currently, a project on transport demand management in Beijing
receives financial support.
New climate finance options might come up in the near future, as in the UNFCCC negotiations,
new mechanisms to engage developing countries in mitigation options are discussed.
Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) are relatively new concepts that might
receive a stronger link to financial support in future.
The various options for international climate finance can reduce the potentially higher
implementation costs of transport projects that reduce GHG emissions. However, climate
finance resources are rather small compared to domestic funding, foreign direct investments,
or official development aid. Climate finance is to be seen as complementary funding source
that can facilitate the implementation of projects or measures that might otherwise not be
implemented. In theory, many climate funds are accessible by local authorities. In practice,
104 CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY

however, it is very difficult for cities to access some funding sources without support by the
national government or external experts. New options to obtain climate finance that are
emerging—for instance, within the NAMA concept—might be more accessible for local transport
projects. Even though financial benefits might be limited, seeking climate finance during
the transport planning process can encourage local practitioners to rethink old transport
planning principles and to include sustainability and GHG mitigation criteria.
Conclusion
The Metrasys project advised the Hefei municipal government throughout the entire policy
cycle and technology uptake process. The main points include:
· assessing the current status of urban transport, policy, and finance frameworks in the city,
· developing the scenarios for future traffic congestion, greenhouse gas, and harmful emissions,
· developing and implementing a traffic management system based on floating car data
(FCD),
· providing policy and planning advice through guidelines and policy papers, and
· providing advice on financing options for the city’s planned sustainable urban mobility
measures.
The cooperation with the city administration and local industry partners was based on a
long-standing partnership, which allowed open and focused discussions. Vital for the success
of the project was the focus on the city’s specific needs regarding the solutions presented for
consideration, presented in a form most useful to city officials.
It is of course too early to say if and how the project impacted on future developments in
the city. The scenarios developed for this project at least indicate that if the policy measures
proposed and technology solutions implemented in the project have the potential to make
a substantial positive contribution to air quality, energy consumption, and greenhouse gas
emissions in the city and may also contribute to improved access and road safety.
References
China Urban Sustainable Transport Research Centre (2008): Sustainable Transport Development in Chinese Cities:
Challenges and Options. Beijing
De Palma, A./Lindsey, R. (2009): Traffic congestion pricing methods and technologies. Ecole Polytechnique.
Palaiseau
ECMT (2007): Cutting Transport CO2 Emissions: What Progress? http://www.internationaltransportforum.org/
Pub/pdf/07CuttingCO2.pdf, 24.03.2014
Fujii, S./Taniguchi, A. (2006): “Determinants of the Effectiveness of Travel Feedback Programs-a Review of
Communicative Mobility Management Measures for Changing Travel Behaviour in Japan”. In: Transport Policy 13
(5), pp. 339–48
Goldman Sachs (2010): BRICs Monthly. New York
Goodwin, P. (2008): Policy Incentives to Change Behaviour in Passenger Transport. OECD International Transport
Forum, Leipzig, May 2008. http://www.internationaltransportforum.org/Topics/Workshops/WS2Goodwin.pdf,
24.03.2014
Hefei City Planning and Design Institute (2008): personal communication.
Hefei City Planning Bureau (2011): Hefei City Planning and Transportation, Hefei
Hefei Public Transport Group Co. Ltd (2008): personal communication.
Hymel, K.M./Small, K.A./Dender, K.V. (2010): “Induced Demand and Rebound Effects in Road Transport”. In: Transportation
Research Part B: Methodological 44 (10), pp. 1220–41
105 HEFEI

Wulf-Holger Arndt, Xiaoxu Bei, Günter Emberger, Ulrich Fahl, Angela Jain, Oliver Lah,
Alexander Sohr, Jan Tomaschek
Mobility and Transportation
Concepts for Sustainable
Transportation in Future Megacities
This chapter describes comparisons of the projects’ results and gives some overall conclusions
on the aspects of stakeholder analysis, challenges and strategies, models and planning
tools as well as on the transferability of sustainable urban mobility solutions.
Summary Challenges, Strategies, and Measures
In all of the examined cities, very similar challenges were identified—in particular, rapid
population growth, high levels of migration from rural to urban areas, and the fast growth
of individual motorised traffic driven by increasing wealth. For example, the growth rates for
cars are between 15 to 18% per year in the megacity regions, compared to growth rates below
2% per year in Europe or the USA. 1 These high growth rates are the main driver of present
and future transport problems in these cities. In addition to the directly related problems of
energy consumption, road safety, noise, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, land use is a
major issue for road transport [Figure 1 •].
Economic development and rapid urbanisation are the key driving factors behind the
growth in transport demand, in particular in emerging countries. The creation of new workplaces
combined with major investments in infrastructure—transport, but also in production
and retail sector, housing, water supply, wastewater, energy supply, education—cause
immense migration streams from the countryside towards these megacity regions, and thus
form the key drivers of population growth in these regions.
Looking at the different cities, not only are the challenges they face are very similar, but
also the strategies to overcome these challenges—formulated by the authorities of these
megacities—are more or less identical, at least with regard to some basics: all cities have
analysed their status quo and realised that car-related development will be not a solution
to tackle their future problems. In their transport-related strategic documents, 2 they have
addressed their challenges. The formulated objectives to reduce car transport make clear that
the cities wish to create less carbon-intensive future transport systems. With regard to implementation
of policies and measures, one can see that the strategies are also very similar
in all megacity regions. Suggested first steps for implementations include: major increase of
road capacity (ring roads, fly overs, urban motorways, et cetera); improvements of motorised
traffic flows through traffic management systems; technological end of pipe solutions,
such as less fuel consumption for individual motor vehicles (e.g., hybrids). Only in one of the
investigated megacities—Gauteng—currently uses pricing instruments such as toll charges.
However, those systems offer the opportunity to limit private car use. In a second step
108 OUTCOMES

Area consumption [m²/person]
Fig. 1 Space consumption for different means of transport (m 2 /person) [Pfaffenbichler 2001]
70
60
60,0
50
40
30
32,1
20
10
7,7
17,6
12,0
0
1,0
usually ten or more years later, the strategies propose improving the public transport system.
Interesting here is that the suggested public transport systems are primarily based on very
expensive technologies—such as subway or sky-train systems—with the constraint that they
should not compete with the street space reserved for cars. This suggested order of implementation
(first an increasing of road capacity and then improving of public transport) is
similar to the solutions applied in Western societies some decades ago. The only difference in
these emerging economies is the pace and magnitude of the developments, which are much
higher and faster than we have ever experienced in the past. As an alternative approach in
some cities, an improvement of the existing bus system was established as Bus Rapid Transport
(BRT). These BRT systems—for example, in Tehran-Karaj, Gauteng, HCMC—increased the
public transport quality. But the capacities are not sufficient in many cases. In the case of the
Tehran-Karaj metropolitan area, not all parts of the system has dedicated/segregated bus
lanes and is therefore also affected by congestion.
Based on the spatial structure of segregation (urban sprawl) and social conditions (high
share of low income groups), the so-called paratransit services are highly important in the
mass transport in many developing and emerging countries. These services, offered mostly by
private car owners, are sometimes formal (taxis, line taxis, minivans), and sometimes informal
but tolerated by the officials (tuc tuc, rickshaws, trip sharing). The services do not often
meet high standards and have some traffic safety problems, but they are a demand-responsive
transport offer. Despite their weaknesses, paratransit services seem to be an adapted
system in developing and emerging countries. An improvement of service quality and vehicle
standards is needed.
The suggested policies—the order and magnitude of the implementation—are by no means
sufficient to reach the highlighted objectives of the megacities examined. The provision and
investment of (road) infrastructure will further increase the attractiveness of these cities.
This will change the existing land use, leading to urban sprawl that will result in higher
population growth and in immigration flows from the rural areas. In turn, this will put more
pressure on the (road) infrastructure, leading to more provision and investment in (road)
infrastructure. This vicious circle is the driving force behind the megacities around the world;
109

spatial distribution of pollutant emissions—for example, NOx, particulate matters—which
are a serious problem for living quality and health conditions in cities. Furthermore, TEMT
could provide information on the likely performance of alternative powertrain technologies—for
example, hybrid or electric vehicles, biofuels usage—in terms of their emissions
reduction potential.
The TIMES-GEECO model makes use of the energy system model generator TIMES,
which is a flexible toolkit to analyse the future perspectives of technologies and pathways
to achieve political and environmental targets based on a detailed, technology focused
bottom-up representation of the energy system. There are many applications of the model,
which cover a broad range from local models for rural villages to world models. Obviously,
the spatial, technical, and temporal resolution of such a model depends on the research
question to be analysed.
Based on the flexible background of the TIMES modelling framework, in general, and
the particular adaptations considering the characteristics of developing countries already
made in TIMES-GEECO, it seems reasonable that the model could be transferred to further
integrated modelling applications. It would be easy to achieve the transfer of TIMES-GEE-
CO to other provinces or metros in South Africa, which obviously show a similar structure
as Gauteng and comparable data availability to those used in the EnerKey project. A
further option could be a national energy system model with sub-national regions—possibly
down to municipal level—which considers the regional availability of resources,
local energy targets, and socio-economics. That would make it possible to align national,
provincial, and local energy planning and climate protection strategies. On the other hand,
territorial (decentralised) small-scale applications of the model would also be feasible—for
example, for a hospital or industrial area. The TIMES-GEECO energy system model could
also be transferred to other regions in the world to show how to reach climate targets
in a cost-efficient and achievable manner, which includes explicit consideration of the
characteristics of developing countries, such as rapid socio-economic growth and income
inequality. Herein, TIMES-GEECO has particular strengths in analysing optimal allocations
of biogenic resources and analysing the perspectives of alternative fuels and powertrains,
such as electric mobility.
Floating Car Data for Hefei, China
A good example of a sustainable urban mobility measure that has high transferability potential
is traffic management based on floating car data (FCD) as part of a wider low-carbon
transport concept, as implemented in Hefei as part of the Metrasys project.
Floating car data describes a system in which a selection of vehicles (in Hefei
2,000)—“floating cars”— travelling in city traffic are outfitted with special equipment that
measures the vehicle’s current location, speed, and direction, and wirelessly transmits this
data to a central server. Using this data, the current traffic situation can be qualified and made
available to road users via special navigation units that are able to receive this information and
use it to divert users around congested areas, relieving congestion and reducing air pollutant
emissions. In addition to the real-time advantages, the FCD information can be stored and
used by decision-makers as a reference for planning and technical work, as is the case in Hefei.
Hefei’s FCD system could potentially serve as an archetype for other such systems in other
cities: it is easy to implement and uses low-cost technology. More recent FCD implementations
display the technology’s potential (gathering data and delivering information from/to
120 OUTCOMES

smart-phone equipped users, thus foregoing the cost and effort of selecting and outfitting
floating cars). FCD systems are enablers for more comprehensive traffic management
systems. Thus, it is not an efficiency measure itself, but a vital step towards a number of
measures—such as bus priority at traffic lights, and congestion reduction and traffic diversion
to improve the efficiency of the road network. The actual potential with regard to emissions
reductions very much depends on the framework in which these traffic management measures
are embedded, as explored in the Hefei section of this volume.
FCD’s transferability to other Chinese cities is especially high, not only because of the
obvious framework-condition similarities shared by Chinese cities, but also more specifically
because Hefei is one of many “second-tier” Chinese cities. These cities share the characteristics
of rapidly growing populations (two to seven million inhabitants) and motorisation
rates, with attendant growth in negative external effects and stress on infrastructure
capacity. Thus, measures that address these problems in one second-tier city are likely to be
transferable to others.
Key element to the success of the system with regard to sustainable development is the
integration of traffic management into a wider concept of sustainable urban mobility on
which the Metrasys project provided advice to the city administration.
Conclusion
One of the key drivers of GHG emission is traffic-related CO 2
emissions. Car ownership of primarily
fossil fuel vehicles is dramatically increasing in developing and emerging countries. In
addition, local emissions based on car traffic lead to enormous health problems—particularly
in high population concentrations, such as megacities. A radical reduction of private car use is
needed to meet sustainability in transport systems in megacities.
The experiences of the Future Megacities projects underline the importance of the interrelation
between transportation systems and settlement structure. In the long run, high
capacities in transport systems promote a spatial segregation, which increases the traffic
demand. Thus a vicious cycle starts.
The implementation of high-quality public transport is an important prerequisite for reducing
car traffic. This system should have high accessibility and affordability for everyone. In addition,
paratransit systems are transport services that can easily be adapted to different local
conditions in megacities in other countries. Moreover, this kind of mass transport service with
demand-responsive offers could be a fitting approach for rural areas in industrial countries.
Adapted tools, which were developed in these future Megacities projects, could help to
display the complex interrelations between transport system and spatial structure. The
projects developed a broad set of such instruments—from user-friendly estimation tools to
elaborated complex models. Local conditions, such as data availability and budget, are important
in choosing the most applicable tool.
One of the main prerequisites for implementing a sustainable transportation concept is
participation that includes all stakeholders. These procedures should include all groups of the
local population, companies, NGOs, municipalities, and other planning authorities.
The Future Megacities projects demonstrated a mutual learning processes between
emerging and industrial countries to the topics of urban transportation. Experiences from
both sides should be discussed and included in the final concepts.
121

Transportation Management
in Hefei (China)
Context
Growing urbanisation and the increasing size of
metropolitan regions are a challenge, as well as an
opportunity, for the economic development and the
social balance of societies, particularly in rapidly
developing countries like China. The dynamic evolution
of Chinese cities poses special challenges for
transport concepts. According to the recent census,
5 million people live in Hefei (capital of Anhui
province, China), 3 million of whom live in the urban
area. Meanwhile, the rapid rise of car ownership in
Chinese cities significantly impacts people’s lifestyles,
as well as the environment. Traffic congestion
as a phenomenon has extended from first-tier cities
to second-tier cities such as Hefei. The rapid growth
of private car ownership has also led to the excessive
rise in road construction that remains insufficient to
keep up with traffic growth, while simultaneously
consuming valuable land resources in Hefei. Traffic
congestion is becoming ever more critical day by
day and causes more delays, fuel consumption, air
pollution, and CO 2
emissions. The rapidly growing
demand for mobility and housing has created new
challenges for urban administrative institutions,
which have to deal with an unprecedented urban
growth, thus leading to an urgent need for sustainable
development.
Objectives
The main objectives of the METRASYS project are
to contribute to climate protection through the
development of sustainable transport in highly
dynamic economic and urban regions. In particular,
the project aims to provide decision-makers with the
necessary means to effectively implement and guide
sustainable transport in Hefei. Furthermore, special
emphasis is placed on the general transferability of
development approaches on traffic management for
comparable megacities worldwide.
Approach
The project integrates different disciplines—for
example, spatial planning, transport science,
engineering science, and political science—and
addresses both planning and operational aspects
of the transport sector, through deployment of a
sophisticated geographic information system (GIS)
and an advanced traffic-management system. This
system also facilitates environmental evaluations
and analyses with an emission and pollution dispersion
model developed in this project. This, in turn,
provides valuable feedback to the transport and
urban planning process. Furthermore, the results are
used to explore opportunities for climate finance,
which provides additional incentives for sustainable
transport development. This comprehensive
approach was devised and has been implemented
in close co-operation with relevant Chinese stakeholders.
This contributes to a constructive and
concrete stakeholder dialogue, bringing all relevant
parties together, thereby addressing the challenges
of sustainable mobility in a holistic manner. The
project works in four main research areas related to
energy-efficient future megacities:
1. Technology Development: realisation of effective
concepts and implementation of intelligent traffic
management based on Floating Car Data (FCD)
and video detection for intersection monitoring
2. Model Development: energy efficiency and
reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by assessing
the environmental impact of the trafficmanagement
system and the planned urban
traffic development through the validation and
optimisation process using various models,
such as traffic models, emission, and immission
models
3. Transport Planning: capacity building and
accompanying urban and transport planning for
sustainable city development
134 PROJECTS IN BRIEF

Highways in Hefei [Zehner]
4. Climate Finance: identification of climate finance
opportunities for sustainable low-carbon transport
in Hefei
Solutions
· Intelligent traffic-management system based on
floating-car data, video detection, and broadcasting
with Digital Audio Broadcast (DAB)
· Model development for the assessment of
environmental impacts of traffic as a basis for
informed decision-making and climate-friendly
transport planning strategies
· Guidelines and manuals for best practice in
“traffic management”, “transport planning”, and
“urban block design”
· Finance options for sustainable transport
· Strategic design proposal for pedestrian-friendly
cities
Contact
Project: METRASYS—Sustainable mobility for megacities
Alexander Sohr | German Aerospace Centre, Institute
of Transportation Systems
Email: alexander.sohr@dlr.de
Webpage: www.metrasys.de
135

Governance for Sustainability
in Hyderabad (India)
Context
The population of Greater Hyderabad is predicted to
reach 10.5 million inhabitants by 2015. The rapid economic
growth of the emerging megacity has facilitated
higher living standards and modern lifestyles for
the emerging middle class. This is, however, accompanied
by escalating energy and resource consumption.
Furthermore, long-standing problems remain
unresolved. For example, approximately one-third of
the population lives below the poverty line and continues
to suffer from food, housing, education, and
health problems. In addition to this, climate change
is predicted to lead to extreme weather events, disastrous
floods, strong heat waves, extreme droughts,
and increasing water scarcity.
Given this natural, social, and economic context
of Hyderabad, the question arises: what can be
considered a reasonable response to the anticipated
impact of climate change?
Objectives
The overall objective of the project is to develop a
sustainable development framework for Hyderabad
by prioritising mitigation and adaptation strategies
for climate change and energy efficiency.
Focusing on the sectors of transport, food, land-use
planning, and the provision of energy and water, the
project pursues the following functional objectives:
1. To increase scientific knowledge and to generate
a database concerning climate change, its
mitigation and adaptation opportunities, as well
as to ascertain the potential of energy efficiency
through collaborative research
2. To identify institutional and policy solutions that
encourage a behavioural change in relevant actors
to address the problems (“getting the institutions
right”)
3. To design, propose, and implement demonstrable
strategies for climate-change adaptation
and mitigation, as well as for increased energy
efficiency
4. To ensure a wider adoption of these strategies
by all relevant stakeholders and actors through
appropriate communication, capacity building,
advocacy, policy dialogues, and dissemination
mechanisms
Approach
The project aims to achieve climate-change adaptation
and mitigation, as well as energy efficiency,
through the design of appropriate policies that
aim to change behaviour. Analysis of policies, of
lifestyles in private households, of authorities for
urban planning and administration, and of governance
structures were conducted in tandem with a
technical analysis in each of the focus fields: energy
and water supply, food and health, and transport.
The results of both analyses guided the conceptualisation
of the pilot projects. The project applies
a “discourse approach” to implement the necessary
changes in the institutions and government
organisations. The knowledge generated through the
research and the implemented pilot projects that
involve all the stakeholders and actors is embedded
in local discourse and dialogue.
Eight pilot projects have been implemented and
evaluated in the areas of urban planning, transport,
food, and clean and efficient energy provision, as
well as education for sustainable lifestyles. The
management options that evolved through pilot projects
have been transferred to relevant stakeholders
in Hyderabad with the help of capacity-building
measures. The consortium, involving partners from
scientific, governmental, non-governmental, and
private organisations, has formulated a Perspective
Action Plan (PAP) for Hyderabad and proposed its
adoption.
136 PROJECTS IN BRIEF

Slow motion in Hyderabad's old city [Zehner]
Solutions
· Climate Assessment Tool for Hyderabad (CATHY)
· Strategic Transport Planning Tool
· Street food-safety manual and on-site training to
strengthen a climate-friendly urban food-supply
system
· Collective action for fuel transition among the
urban poor
· Co-operative and technical solutions to increase
energy efficiency in irrigation
· Solar powered schools
· Education for sustainable lifestyles
· Community radio
Contact
Project: Climate and energy in a complex transition
process towards sustainable Hyderabad—mitigation
and adaptation strategies by changing institutions,
governance structures, lifestyles and consumption
patterns
Konrad Hagedorn | Humboldt-Universität Berlin,
Department of Agricultural Economics
Email: k.hagedorn@agrar.hu-berlin.de
Webpage: www.sustainable-hyderabad.de
137

Authors
Wulf-Holger Arndt is the head of the research unit “Mobility
and Space” in the Center of Technology and Society
(CTS) at Technische Universität Berlin. He studied transportation
planning in Petersburg, Dresden, and Berlin.
He wrote his doctoral thesis about the optimisation
of commercial and freight transport. Dr. Arndt is now
leading research projects on sustainable transportation
planning in an international context, climate change and
transport systems, as well as barrier-free mobility. He
also gives lectures on international urban transportation
and commercial transport in urban areas.
Technische Universität Berlin | wulf-holger.arndt@
tu-berlin.de
Xiaoxu Bei studied traffic engineering at the Tongji
University in Shanghai and at the University of Stuttgart,
and completed his Dipl.-Ing. in 2000. In 2001, he
began working for the German Aerospace Center (DLR).
From 2002–2004, he was project manager at the “Dr.
Brenner Ingenieurgesellschaft mbH” in Beijing. Since
2005, he has been back at the DLR as project manager
and research scientist. He was the German-Chinese coordinator
of the project METRASYS. He is also involved
in several other bilateral projects between China and
Germany, and conducts research in the field of traffic
management (ITS).
German Aerospace Center (DLR) Institute of
Transportation Systems Berlin | xiaoxu.bei@dlr.de
Norman Döge has a degree (Dipl.-Geogr.) in geography
from the Freie Universität Berlin, Germany. He currently
works at the Center for Technology and Society (CTS)
at Technische Universität Berlin in the research unit
“Mobility and Space”. His research focuses on transportation
planning and research in urban areas of
developing countries, with special attention to informal
public transport.
CTS, TU Berlin | doege@ztg.tu-berlin.de
Guenter Emberger is Associate Professor in the
Research Center of Transport Planning and Traffic
Engineering at the Institute of Transportation at Vienna
University of Technology. Since 1990, he has worked in
the field of transport planning and policy, with a focus
on sustainable transport. His expertise lies in the development
of decision support tools based on qualitative
(such as the “Decision Makers Guidebook”) and quantitative
(co-developer of the strategic, dynamic land use
and transport interaction model MARS) methodologies.
He was involved in more than thirty international
projects covering Central and Eastern Europe, and South
East Asia. He led the work package “WP 5—Urban Transport”
in the Megacity Research Project TP Ho Chi Minh
City (BMBF Megacity Programme).
Vienna University of Technology |
guenter.emberger@tuwien.ac.at
Ulrich Fahl heads the Department of Energy Economics
and Systems Analysis at the IER, University of Stuttgart.
Fahl is an economist, model expert, and coordinates
numerous national and international projects.
He is responsible for research activities in the fields of:
energy and electricity demand, energy efficiency improvements,
energy and electricity modelling, integrated
resource planning, energy and transport and energy
and climate issues.
University of Stuttgart | ulrich.fahl@ier.unistuttgart.de
Kain Glensor has an Honours degree in (Mechanical) Engineering
(B.E. Hons) from the University of Auckland,
New Zealand, and an MA in (environmental) Political
Science from the Freie Universität Berlin, Germany,
in which he focused on renewable energy and climate
change policy. He has worked at the Wuppertal Institute
since 2013, where he holds the position of research
fellow, working on European and international research
projects on sustainable urban transport, energy efficiency
and sustainable development.
Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and
Energy | kain.glensor@wupperinst.org
Hanna Hüging works at the Wuppertal Institute on
international transport policy with a focus on energy-efficiency
and low-carbon transport. She has experience
in policies and measures for sustainable transport on
the local level. Her field of work comprises evaluation
of climate protection initiatives in the transport sector,
including the assessment of soft measures for emission
reduction. Prior to that, she gained experience in working
with local municipalities through various positions,
such as intern or student assistant.
Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and
Energy | hanna.hueging@wupperinst.org
142 AUTHORS

Angela Jain studied environmental and urban planning
and attained her PhD in 2004 from Humboldt-Universität
zu Berlin, Germany. In 2005, she joined the nexus
Institute for Cooperation Management and Interdisciplinary
Research as head of the unit “Infrastructure and
Society”. From 2006 to 2013, she managed the work
package “Communication and Participation Strategies”
of the international project “Climate and Energy
in a Complex Transition Process towards Sustainable
Hyderabad”, funded by the German Federal Ministry of
Education and Research (BMBF). Her areas of expertise
include: sustainable city development in emerging
countries, citizens’ participation, climate change awareness,
and local governance.
nexus Institute, Berlin | jain@nexusinstitut.de
Oliver Lah is a project coordinator at the Wuppertal
Institute, and focuses on climate change mitigation
policy analysis and sustainable urban mobility. He is a
lead author for the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report and
currently coordinates the SOLUTIONS project on urban
mobility solutions around the world, and the SUS-
TAIN EU-ASEAN project that facilitates collaboration
on climate and resource issues between Europe and
South-east Asia. Prior to that, Lah worked for the New
Zealand government, the Ludwig-Maximilian-Universität
München, and the Minister of State to the German
Federal Chancellor. He holds a Bachelor of Arts with
Honours in Political Science, and a Master of Environmental
Studies from Victoria University of Wellington.
Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and
Energy | oliver.lah@wupperinst.org
Miriam Müller has worked as a research fellow at the
Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and
Energy in the research group “Energy, Transport, and
Climate Policy” since 2012. In her work, she focuses on
strategies and measures for sustainable mobility, mobility
behaviour, and empirical social research. She holds
a degree in applied human geography and in art history.
Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and
Energy | miriam.mueller@wupperinst.org
consulting projects, which primarily deal with the
development and applications of procedures to assess
impacts—ecological, economic, and social—of transport
systems and strategies. Between 2008 and 2013, she
led the work group “Sustainable Transport Planning
for Hyderabad” within the research project consortium
“Sustainable Hyderabad”.
PTV Group Planung Transport Verkehr AG, Karlsruhe |
tanja.schaefer@ptvgroup.com
Alexander Sohr is a scientist at the German Aerospace
Center (DLR), and since 2005 researcher and project
leader at the Institute of Transportation Systems in
Berlin, Department “Traffic Management”. He has
worked on several national and international projects
(the first was in China in 2006). He was the leader of
the Future Megacities Project METRASYS. He studied
electrical engineering and computer science at
Technische Universität Berlin, Germany and completed
his degree (Dipl.-Ing.) in 2005. His main interests focus
on the field of Floating Car Data processing—from data
collection to visualisation, including prediction and data
fusion methods.
German Aerospace Center (DLR) Institute of
Transportation Systems Berlin | alexander.sohr@dlr.de
Jan Tomaschek works as a research associate at the
Institute for Energy Economics and the Rational Use of
Energy (IER) in the department Energy Economics and
System Analysis (ESA) at the University of Stuttgart.
His research focuses on the further development of energy
system models and the model-based formulation
of strategies for energy and climate change policies in
regional, national and international contexts.
University of Stuttgart | jan.tomaschek@ier.unistuttgart.de
Tanja Schäfer received her MA in Geography from the
University of Mannheim in 1997. After a one-year stay
abroad, she specialised in transport planning with
postgraduate education at the Office for Environmental
Education, Göttingen. Since 1999, she has
worked as project manager at PTV on research and
143