Sunday times november full report

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Sunday times november full report

Sunday Times

/Behaviour &

Attitudes

November 2012

Opinion Poll

1 st – 13 th November, 2012

Prepared for

Prepared by Ian McShane

J.4237


Technical Appendix


Technical Appendix

� The results of this opinion poll are based upon a representative sample of 951

eligible Irish voters aged 18 years +.

� As such, the results can be deemed to be accurate to within plus or minus 3.2

percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

� Fieldwork was conducted over the period Thursday, 1 st November – Tuesday, 13 th

November with interviewing carried out at the Behaviour & Attitudes Computer

Aided Telephone Interviewing (CATI) Unit at Milltown House in Dublin.

� Interviewing was conducted across all 43 constituencies in the country with

households selected for interview by way of Random Digit Dialling (RDD).

� The sample is split across RDD landline numbers and RDD mobile telephone numbers,

so as to ensure that individuals living in landline only households, mobile only

households, and households with both a landline and mobile telephone are

represented in their correct proportions.

3


Technical Appendix

� The subsequent survey results are weighted to reflect the known demographic profile

of Irish adults, utilising the most recently published census population estimates

from the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

� Party support levels are subsequently realigned in accordance with a technical

adjustment factor, designed to smooth the effects of extreme highs and lows in

support levels for individual parties as measured at a single point in time, and taking

variable election day turnout levels into account.

� All aspects of the survey, including the Party Support adjustment factor, are

implemented in accordance with the technical and ethical guidelines set down by the

Association of Irish Market Research Organisations (AIMRO) and the European Society

of Opinion & Market Research (ESOMAR).

4


Charted Summary


Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Government

and Party Leader Satisfaction Levels

12 th

February

2011

(f/w: 31 st

Jan –

12 th Feb,

2011)

24 th

August,

2011

(f/w 16 th

– 24 th

August,

2011)

2 nd

October,

2011

(f/w 20 th

Sept – 2 nd

Oct,

2011)

18 th

October,

2011

(f/w 16 th

– 18 th

Oct,

2011)

12 th Dec.

2011

(f/w 7 th -

12 th Dec,

2011)

20th

February

2012

(f/w 15 th

– 20 th

Feb.

2012)

17th

April,

2012

(f/w 11 th

– 17 th

Apr.

2012)

23 rd May

2012

(f/w 18 th

– 23 rd

May,

2012)

9 th

Sept.

2012

(f/w

4 th -9 th

Sept

2012)

13 th Nov

2012

(f/w 1 st -

13 th

Nov2012)

The Government 5% 42% 34% 36% 26% 26% 29% 31% 24% 26%

Micheál Martin 43% 40% 31% 36% 40% 33% 34% 41% 34% 42%

Enda Kenny 40% 62% 51% 58% 44% 41% 47% 42% 38% 41%

Eamon Gilmore 55% 52% 43% 46% 35% 34% 37% 32% 34% 29%

Gerry Adams 40% 48% 50% 50% 48% 46% 43% 42% 39% 40%

Eamon Ryan - 34% 30% 30% 30% 25% 29% 29% 27% 27%

Q.2

Q.3

Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the Government is running the

country?

Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way (…..) is doing his job as (…….)?

6


Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Core Party

Support Levels

12 th

Feb.

2011

(f/w:

31 st Jan

– 12 th

Feb,

2011)

24 th

August,

2011

(f/w 16 th

– 24 th

August,

2011)

2 nd

October,

2011

(f/w 20 th

Sept – 2 nd

Oct,

2011)

18 th

October,

2011

(f/w 16 th

– 18 th

Oct,

2011)

12 th Dec.

2011

(f/w 7 th -

12 th Dec,

2011)

20 th

Feb.

2012

(f/w 15 th

– 20 th

Feb.

2012)

17th

April,

2012

(f/w 11 th

– 17 th

Apr.

2012)

23 rd May

2012

(f/w 18 th

– 23 rd

May,

2012)

9th

Sept.

2012

(f/w

4th -

9th

Sept

2012)

13th Nov

2012

(f/w 1st-

13th

Nov2012)

Fianna Fáil 11% 12% 11% 11% 15% 11% 12% 12% 12% 16%

Fine Gael 26% 35% 26% 27% 22% 23% 22% 24% 23% 23%

Labour 17% 9% 10% 11% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 7%

Sinn Féin 10% 10% 12% 14% 15% 18% 14% 17% 13% 12%

Green Party 1% 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% 3% 1% 2% 1%

Independents/

Others

10% 10% 10% 9% 12% 11% 12% 10% 12% 11%

Undecided 25% 22% 28% 27% 27% 30% 30% 28% 30% 29%

Q.7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your

first preference vote?

7


Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Party Support

Levels (Excluding Undecideds - Unadjusted)

12 th

Februa

ry,

2011

(f/w:

31 st

Jan –

12 th

Feb,

2011)

General

Election

Result

25 th

February

24 th

August,

2011

(f/w 16 th –

24 th

August,

2011)

2 nd

October,

2011

(f/w 20 th

Sept – 2 nd

Oct, 2011)

18 th

October,

2011

(f/w 16 th –

18 th Oct,

2011)

12 th Dec.

2011

(f/w 7 th -

12 th Dec,

2011)

20 th

February,

2012

(f/w 15 th –

20 th Feb.

2012)

17th April,

2012

(f/w 11 th –

17 th Apr.

2012)

23 rd May

2012

(f/w 18 th –

23 rd May,

2012)

9 th Sept.

2012

(f/w

4 th -9 th

Sept 2012)

Fianna Fáil 15% 17% 15% 15% 15% 20% 16% 17% 17% 18% 23%

Fine Gael 34% 36% 44% 36% 37% 30% 32% 32% 33% 33% 32%

Labour 23% 19% 12% 14% 15% 11% 10% 10% 11% 11% 10%

Sinn Féin 14% 10% 13% 17% 19% 21% 25% 20% 23% 19% 17%

Green Party 2% 2% 2% 4% 1% 3% 2% 5% 1% 2% 2%

Independent/

Others

13th Nov

2012

(f/w 1st-

13th

Nov2012)

14% 16% 12% 13% 13% 15% 15% 17% 14% 17% 16%

Q.7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your

first preference vote?

8


Party Support Adjustment Factor: Technical

Note

� Predicting election results on the basis of poll data is not an exact science. All the

evidence shows that support for individual parties can swing dramatically in the

period between elections- very often outside the bounds of historic election results.

� Generally speaking one expects support for Government parties to decline in mid

term with a corresponding rise in support for the Opposition. This is, of course,

particularly true when times are tough.

� The present situation is compounded by the fact that we have a coalition

Government with quite different patterns of response among the constituent parties.

Fine Gael voters are - by and large - behind Mr. Kenny and the performance of his

Government. The same cannot be said for Labour and Mr. Gilmore. In these

circumstances one might expect a greater swing in mood against Labour: with the

opposition parties sharing a common base with them most likely to benefit.

9


Party Support Adjustment Factor: Technical

Note

� What to do in these circumstances? Most polling companies in Britain and Ireland

publish their raw survey results as an index of fluctuations in the emotional mood of

voters. They also build in an adjustment based on a number of factors. Where we

have reports of how people voted in the last general election as well as how they

intend to vote in the next one we can use these data to model the likely level of

swing from the last election results.

� We then add back in the forecasts of voters who have not voted last time or do not

answer that particular question.

� Finally we take into account each individuals stated likelihood of voting in a

forthcoming General Election.

� This is the basis of the adjusted voting forecast in Behaviour & Attitudes polls.

10


Party Support Levels

(Excluding Undecided - Adjusted)

2 nd

October,

2011

(f/w 20 th

Sept – 2 nd

Oct, 2011)

� Adjusted figures based on:

18 th

October,

2011

(f/w 16 th –

18 th Oct,

2011)

12 th

Dec.

2011

(f/w 7 th -

12 th Dec,

2011)

� All who state they would definitely vote

20 th

Februar

y, 2012

(f/w 15 th –

20 th Feb.

2012)

17th

April,

2012

(f/w 11 th –

17 th Apr.

2012)

23 rd May

2012

(f/w 18 th –

23 rd May,

2012)

9 th Sept.

2012

(f/w

4 th -9 th

Sept 2012)

� Weighting of those respondents who give a definite answer as to who they would vote for in a

general election and who they voted for in the last election, in line with the result of the last

election.

� Making no adjustment to stated voting intention of those who do not indicate how they voted in

last election.

13th Nov

2012

(f/w 1st-

13th

Nov2012)

Fianna Fáil 16% 14% 18% 16% 15% 16% 16% 22%

Fine Gael 34% 35% 29% 33% 33% 33% 31% 30%

Labour 16% 16% 12% 13% 14% 14% 14% 12%

Sinn Féin 14% 17% 19% 20% 16% 17% 18% 14%

Green Party 3% 1% 3% 2% 5% 2% 2% 3%

Independents

/Others

17% 16% 18% 16% 18% 18% 19% 19%

Q.7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first

preference vote?

11


Support for Assisted Suicide where someone is

suffering from terminal illness

Base: All

Eligible Voters

Total

Gender Age Class Region Area

Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Leins

ter

Munster Conn/

Ulster

Q.8 In your opinion, should someone who is suffering with a terminal illness be allowed to end his or her own

life by way of assisted suicide or not?

Urban Rural

Base: 951 468 483 308 356 287 448 447 56 277 239 257 178 657 294

% % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

Yes, should

be allowed

No, should

not be

allowed

69 72 66 71 77 56 73 67 63 67 70 72 67 70 68

26 22 29 23 17 39 22 28 31 27 24 23 30 25 27

Don’t know 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 6 5 3 6 6

12


Support for Assisted Suicide where someone is

suffering from terminal illness

Base: All Eligible

Voters

Total

Fianna

Fail

Party Support

Fine Gael Labour Green

Party

Sinn Fein Indep

endent/

Others

Base: 951 158 230 76 13 114 120

Yes, should be

allowed

No, should not be

allowed

% % % % % % %

69 60 67 82 86 80 79

26 38 27 17 10 11 15

Don’t know 6 3 6 1 4 8 6

Q.8 In your opinion, should someone who is suffering with a terminal illness be allowed to end his or her own

life by way of assisted suicide or not?

13


Commentary


Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes

Opinion Poll Series

Background

Fieldwork for today’s poll was conducted over the period Thursday 1 st – Tuesday, 13 th

November last.

As such, surveying straddled the lead into, and the debate following, the Children’s

Referendum which was held on Saturday 10 th November.

With all of the political parties campaigning in favour of a yes vote in the Referendum, it

would have been reasonable to assume that no one party was likely to benefit from the

Referendum campaign as, for example, Sinn Féin had benefited from the high profile

stance it adopted in its opposition to the EU Fiscal Treaty Referendum.

Halfway through surveying for the poll, however, the Supreme Court ruled that the

Government’s information campaign on the Children’s Referendum was not fair,

impartial or equal.

Subsequent commentary surrounding this announcement, and indeed in relation to the

subsequent low Referendum turnout with a larger than expected No vote was generally

critical of the Government’s handling of the matter.

15


Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes

Opinion Poll Series

Background

Other dynamics which are likely to have influenced public opinion as expressed in this

survey include increased pronouncements from Government spokespersons concerning

the likely scale of expenditure cuts and direct or indirect taxes likely to be included in

next month’s Budget.

While Government parties will generally suffer in opinion polls in the run up to a difficult

budget, this year’s budget narrative is being played out within the context of a

distraught public about to enter its sixth year of economic hardship, with little or no

perceived hope of an improvement in living standards any time soon.

Meanwhile, both Enda Kenny and Michael Noonan continue to take a relatively aggressive

public stance at EU level on the need for Ireland to receive a deal on its banking debt in

advance of the next scheduled repayment of Anglo Irish debt in March, 2013.

While perhaps taken by many Irish commentators with a pinch of salt, the featuring of

Enda Kenny on the cover of Time magazine and his award from the German publishing

industry as European of the Year can only have helped bolster the view of the Taoiseach

as a leader who is punching above his weight on the international stage, while delegating

to his cabinet the day to day responsibilities of running the country.

16


Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes

Opinion Poll Series

Background

All in all therefore, it could reasonably have been expected that the Government would

experience a drop in support in today’s poll, with a corresponding upswing in support for

the opposition. While this scenario has indeed come to pass, the specific parties which

have gained and lost support represent the most interesting and revealing aspects of the

poll.

17


Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes

Opinion Poll Series

Party Support and Leader Satisfaction Levels

In the first poll of the Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes series, conducted in August

2011, just six months after the current coalition took office, the Government was

performing creditably with a satisfaction rating of 42%.

As the honeymoon period wore off, this rating slid to circa 35% by October 2011 and, by

its first anniversary in February 2012, had dropped to just 26%.

Government satisfaction actually slipped to a low of 24% in the last comparable

Behaviour & Attitudes Poll this September, and has plateaued in or around this level as

we end 2012.

With regard to Party leader satisfaction, Enda Kenny’s personal rating has remained

quite stable at close to 40% throughout 2012, with today’s poll indicating quite a

significant drop in satisfaction for Eamon Gilmore as Tánaiste (from 34% in September

this year to just 29% today).

18


Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes

Opinion Poll Series

Party Support and Leader Satisfaction Levels

Micheál Martin’s rating has, meanwhile, improved significantly in this poll to 42% - the

highest personal satisfaction rating of any of the leaders in the country today.

The leaders of both Sinn Féin and the Green Party have attracted personal satisfaction

ratings almost identical to those recorded since mid 2012.

Further analysis of the data reveals that the drop in satisfaction with Eamon Gilmore is

most pronounced amongst blue collar workers, those resident in urban areas (Dublin in

particular), and voters aged 35 years or more.

In other words, Gilmore’s drop in support is arguably accounted for by a sense of

disillusionment amongst those very sectors of society which might be described as

‘traditional’ Labour voters.

In addition, the Tánaiste’s rating has dropped five points amongst females. With regard to

party support, it is interesting to note that Fine Gael supporters’ view of the Tánaiste has

registered a significant decrease since the last poll amongst Fine Gael voters (down eight

percentage points) and has declined a full 14 points to 15% amongst Sinn Féin voters.

19


Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes

Opinion Poll Series

Party Support and Leader Satisfaction Levels

A bare majority (53%) of Labour Party supporters are satisfied with their leader’s

performance in Government – a figure which is identical to that measured in

September’s survey.

Meanwhile, Micheál Martin’s improved fortunes in the personal popularity stakes are

evident across all key socio demographic groupings, albeit with the most significant

increases registering amongst females, urban dwellers and, encouragingly from his own

longer term perspective as leader of the party, by a full 11 percentage points amongst

Fianna Fáil supporters.

In line with the party leader ratings, the party support figures bear particularly good

news for Fianna Fáil, and relatively poor news for both Sinn Féin and Labour.

Thus, today’s poll represents something of a breakthrough for Fianna Fáil in the Sunday

Times/Behaviour & Attitudes series. The party’s adjusted support level today stands at

22%, which is its highest level of support recorded in the series so far, positioning the

soldiers of destiny as the second most popular party in the State by some distance.

20


Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes

Opinion Poll Series

Party Support and Leader Satisfaction Levels

Analysis of Fianna Fáil party support across the different sections of the populace reveals

a remarkable statistic - Fianna Fáil support has remained entirely static over the last two

months amongst the male cohort, yet has almost doubled from 15% to 28% amongst

females! This finding seems to tie in with a trend which has been emerging through our

opinion polls since last year’s presidential election – that is, dramatic shifts in public

opinion towards political leaders, parties and socio political issues in general are being

driven more and more by the views of females.

This tentative emergence of women as primary drivers of public opinion is worth noting

from a sociological perspective, and represents a topic which will no doubt benefit from

further research and analysis.

Other encouraging signs for Fianna Fáil include the fact that its support levels now stand

at 26% amongst 18-34 year olds; just five points behind Fine Gael within this age

bracket. The party has also improved its standing disproportionately amongst the white

collar and professional ABC1 socio economic grouping. The party is also in second place

in Dublin on 21% of the vote, compared with 27% support being garnered by

independents across the capital.

21


Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes

Opinion Poll Series

Party Support and Leader Satisfaction Levels

These results will be enormously encouraging for Fianna Fáil strategists as they prepare

for the 2013 political season. Following its near annihilation at the last General

Election, the party has already begun work on rebuilding the organisation from the

ground up on a constituency by constituency basis. No doubt work will proceed apace in

this regard between now and the 2014 local elections, when the seeding of a new

generation of candidates will begin in preparation for the 2015/2016 General Election.

This time last year, the Labour Party was performing well in the polls at 16%, vying for

second position with Sinn Féin, Fianna Fáil and Independents.

Since then, support has slipped to just 12% of the Electorate today, albeit just two

points behind Sinn Féin which has experienced an even more dramatic drop of six

percentage points since last February.

Interestingly, the last time Labour’s party support level came in at just 12% was in early

December last year – an indication no doubt that the Party’s role in executing unpopular

budgetary decisions has a particularly adverse effect amongst Labour Party than Fine

Gael grassroots supporters.

22


Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes

Opinion Poll Series

Party Support and Leader Satisfaction Levels

Deeper analysis of the survey findings suggests that Sinn Féin’s recent loss in support has

transferred almost exclusively to Fianna Fáil. Thus, Sinn Féin has dipped almost

exclusively within the female 18-34 years age grouping – the very same constituency that

Fianna Fáil has picked up the lion’s share of its increased support from.

23


Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes

Opinion Poll Series

Support for Assisted Suicide

Finally, respondents were asked whether, in their opinion, they felt that someone who

was suffering with a terminal illness should be allowed to end his or her own life by way

of assisted suicide or not.

The response of the Irish public was surprisingly clear-cut. In fact, just under seven in

ten of all Irish adults are in favour of assisted suicide in such circumstances. While

support for the concept peaks amongst those aged under 55 years and amongst Labour,

Green Party, Sinn Féin and Independent voters, the fact is that a majority of all key

demographic groupings indicate that they would support a change in legislation to

facilitate assisted suicide.

24


Tabular Report


November TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll

Q1 Are you eligible to vote in Irish General Elections, or not?

All Irish Adults 18+ Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support

Page 1

Table 1

Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Leinster

Munster

Fieldwork : 1st - 13th Nov 2012

Conn/

Ulster

Urban Rural Fianna

Fail

Fine

Gael

Lab-our Green

Party

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

WTD Base: 3,421 1,676 1,745 1,165 1,262 994 1,372 1,795 254 989 869 947 616 2,092 1,329 539 766 244 48 412 384 1,027 2,878 2

UNWTD 991 490 501 336 364 291 470 465 56 289 250 265 187 693 298 161 235 77 15 117 122 264 842

Yes, eligible 96 95 98 91 99 99 95 97 100 96 96 97 96 95 99 98 98 99 91 98 97 93 98

No – not eligible 3 5 2 8 1 1 4 3 - 3 3 3 3 5 1 2 1 1 9 2 3 6 2

Don’t know (DO NOT

READ OUT)

0 - 1 1 - - 1 0 - 0 1 0 0 1 0 - 1 - - - - 1 0

Sinn

Fein

Indep/

Others

Would

not/DK

Would

vote

J4237

Wo

def

y v


November TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll

Q2 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the Government is running the country?

All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support

Page 2

Table 2

Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Leinster

Munster

Fieldwork : 1st - 13th Nov 2012

Conn/

Ulster

Urban Rural Fianna

Fail

Fine

Gael

Lab-our Green

Party

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

WTD Base: 3,293 1,590 1,703 1,062 1,243 988 1,304 1,735 254 953 832 916 593 1,981 1,313 530 751 242 44 402 374 950 2,811 2

UNWTD 951 468 483 308 356 287 448 447 56 277 239 257 178 657 294 158 230 76 13 114 120 240 823

Satisfied 26 31 21 31 23 24 32 21 27 22 31 24 28 26 26 23 58 32 29 11 16 10 28

Dissatisfied 71 67 76 68 74 72 67 75 67 76 66 72 69 71 72 76 40 61 67 88 83 85 70

No opinion 3 3 3 2 3 4 2 3 6 2 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 7 4 0 1 5 2

Sinn

Fein

Indep/

Others

Would

not/DK

Would

vote

J4237

Wo

def

y v


November TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll

Q3 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Kenny is doing his job as Taoiseach?

All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support

Page 3

Table 3

Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Leinster

Munster

Fieldwork : 1st - 13th Nov 2012

Conn/

Ulster

Urban Rural Fianna

Fail

Fine

Gael

Lab-our Green

Party

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

WTD Base: 3,293 1,590 1,703 1,062 1,243 988 1,304 1,735 254 953 832 916 593 1,981 1,313 530 751 242 44 402 374 950 2,811 2

UNWTD 951 468 483 308 356 287 448 447 56 277 239 257 178 657 294 158 230 76 13 114 120 240 823

Satisfied 41 46 37 44 36 44 47 35 50 37 42 44 41 40 43 39 80 47 35 21 25 25 44

Dissatisfied 55 51 58 49 60 54 51 59 48 57 55 52 53 54 55 59 18 43 65 72 73 69 53

No opinion 4 4 5 7 3 3 3 6 2 5 3 4 6 6 2 2 2 9 - 6 1 7 3

Sinn

Fein

Indep/

Others

Would

not/DK

Would

vote

J4237

Wo

def

y v


November TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll

Q4 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Gilmore is doing his job as Tanaiste?

All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support

Page 4

Table 4

Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Leinster

Munster

Fieldwork : 1st - 13th Nov 2012

Conn/

Ulster

Urban Rural Fianna

Fail

Fine

Gael

Lab-our Green

Party

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

WTD Base: 3,293 1,590 1,703 1,062 1,243 988 1,304 1,735 254 953 832 916 593 1,981 1,313 530 751 242 44 402 374 950 2,811 2

UNWTD 951 468 483 308 356 287 448 447 56 277 239 257 178 657 294 158 230 76 13 114 120 240 823

Satisfied 29 31 27 32 28 26 34 24 36 26 29 31 32 28 30 20 56 53 48 15 16 17 31

Dissatisfied 62 60 64 56 64 65 61 63 57 67 64 60 52 60 64 74 40 40 52 71 79 68 61

No opinion 9 9 9 12 8 8 5 13 7 7 6 9 16 11 6 5 4 7 - 14 5 16 7

Sinn

Fein

Indep/

Others

Would

not/DK

Would

vote

J4237

Wo

def

y v


November TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll

Q5 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fail?

All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support

Page 5

Table 5

Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Leinster

Munster

Fieldwork : 1st - 13th Nov 2012

Conn/

Ulster

Urban Rural Fianna

Fail

Fine

Gael

Lab-our Green

Party

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

WTD Base: 3,293 1,590 1,703 1,062 1,243 988 1,304 1,735 254 953 832 916 593 1,981 1,313 530 751 242 44 402 374 950 2,811 2

UNWTD 951 468 483 308 356 287 448 447 56 277 239 257 178 657 294 158 230 76 13 114 120 240 823

Satisfied 42 42 42 38 39 50 43 39 62 35 44 47 42 41 43 74 52 36 29 31 36 26 44

Dissatisfied 45 45 46 49 50 36 49 46 26 50 45 45 40 44 48 22 41 50 71 54 54 52 44

No opinion 12 13 12 14 10 14 9 16 12 14 11 8 18 15 9 4 7 14 - 15 10 22 11

Sinn

Fein

Indep/

Others

Would

not/DK

Would

vote

J4237

Wo

def

y v


November TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll

Q6 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Fein?

All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support

Page 6

Table 6

Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Leinster

Munster

Fieldwork : 1st - 13th Nov 2012

Conn/

Ulster

Urban Rural Fianna

Fail

Fine

Gael

Lab-our Green

Party

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

WTD Base: 3,293 1,590 1,703 1,062 1,243 988 1,304 1,735 254 953 832 916 593 1,981 1,313 530 751 242 44 402 374 950 2,811 2

UNWTD 951 468 483 308 356 287 448 447 56 277 239 257 178 657 294 158 230 76 13 114 120 240 823

Satisfied 40 45 36 44 42 35 36 45 32 38 41 40 44 44 35 43 32 38 37 85 31 30 41

Dissatisfied 48 47 49 47 45 52 54 43 53 50 49 50 41 43 55 52 62 50 60 9 59 46 49

No opinion 12 9 14 9 13 13 10 12 15 12 9 11 15 13 9 5 6 12 2 6 10 23 10

Sinn

Fein

Indep/

Others

Would

not/DK

Would

vote

J4237

Wo

def

y v


November TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll

Q7 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Ryan is doing his job as leader of The Green Party?

All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support

Page 7

Table 7

Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Leinster

Munster

Fieldwork : 1st - 13th Nov 2012

Conn/

Ulster

Urban Rural Fianna

Fail

Fine

Gael

Lab-our Green

Party

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

WTD Base: 3,293 1,590 1,703 1,062 1,243 988 1,304 1,735 254 953 832 916 593 1,981 1,313 530 751 242 44 402 374 950 2,811 2

UNWTD 951 468 483 308 356 287 448 447 56 277 239 257 178 657 294 158 230 76 13 114 120 240 823

Satisfied 27 27 27 32 26 23 29 27 20 24 24 29 33 29 24 35 33 23 90 20 22 21 28

Dissatisfied 48 49 48 49 49 47 48 47 56 52 48 50 41 47 51 44 44 37 10 57 62 50 48

No opinion 25 25 25 19 25 30 23 26 24 24 28 22 26 25 25 21 22 40 - 23 16 30 24

Sinn

Fein

Indep/

Others

Would

not/DK

Would

vote

J4237

Wo

def

y v


November TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll

Q8 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support

Page 8

Table 8

Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Leinster

Munster

Fieldwork : 1st - 13th Nov 2012

Conn/

Ulster

Urban Rural Fianna

Fail

Fine

Gael

Lab-our Green

Party

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

WTD Base: 3,293 1,590 1,703 1,062 1,243 988 1,304 1,735 254 953 832 916 593 1,981 1,313 530 751 242 44 402 374 950 2,811 2

UNWTD 951 468 483 308 356 287 448 447 56 277 239 257 178 657 294 158 230 76 13 114 120 240 823

Fianna Fail 16 15 17 19 13 17 17 14 21 16 11 18 19 15 17 100 - - - - - - 18

Fine Gael 23 29 17 22 22 25 26 18 37 16 28 26 22 19 28 - 100 - - - - - 26

Labour 7 7 8 6 9 6 10 7 - 9 10 6 2 9 5 - - 100 - - - - 8

Green Party 1 1 2 2 1 0 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 - - - 100 - - - 2

Sinn Fein 12 15 9 12 13 11 9 17 0 14 11 11 12 15 7 - - - - 100 - - 13

Independent/Other 11 14 9 7 13 13 13 10 10 15 8 11 11 13 8 - - - - - 100 - 12

Don’t know 22 14 30 22 20 25 16 25 29 23 21 20 26 20 25 - - - - - - 76 21

Would not vote 7 6 8 10 8 2 6 8 1 6 10 5 7 6 8 - - - - - - 24 2

Sinn

Fein

Indep/

Others

Would

not/DK

Would

vote

J4237

Wo

def

y v


November TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll

Q8 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

All Irish VotersAll

voters excluding

undecided

Page 9

Table 9

Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likel

Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Leinster

Munster

Fieldwork : 1st - 13th Nov 2012

Conn/

Ulster

Urban Rural Fianna

Fail

Fine

Gael

Lab-our Green

Party

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

WTD Base: 2,343 1,278 1,065 728 890 725 1,007 1,158 178 684 577 682 400 1,456 887 530 751 242 44 402 374 2,172 1,916

UNWTD 711 384 327 220 267 224 355 318 38 207 175 202 127 502 209 158 230 76 13 114 120 655 583

Fianna Fail 23 18 28 28 18 23 23 21 30 23 17 24 29 21 25 100 - - - - - 23 23

Fine Gael 32 36 27 32 30 35 34 27 53 22 40 35 33 26 41 - 100 - - - - 33 34

Labour 10 9 12 9 13 8 13 10 - 13 15 8 3 12 8 - - 100 - - - 10 11

Green Party 2 1 3 3 2 1 3 1 2 2 2 3 1 1 3 - - - 100 - - 2 2

Sinn Fein 17 19 15 18 18 15 11 25 1 20 15 15 18 21 11 - - - - 100 - 16 15

Independent/Other 16 17 15 10 19 18 17 16 15 21 12 15 16 18 12 - - - - - 100 15 15

Sinn

Fein

Indep/

Others

Would

vote

J4237

Would

definitel

y vote

Wo

pro

y v


November TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll

Adjusted Party Support : Q8 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

All voters excluding

undecidedWill

definitely vote

Page 10

Table 10

Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood

Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Leinster

Munster

Fieldwork : 1st - 13th Nov 2012

Conn/

Ulster

Urban Rural Fianna

Fail

Fine

Gael

Lab-our Green

Party

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

WTD Base: 1,882 1,012 870 513 713 656 870 872 140 542 484 530 325 1,140 742 421 567 217 55 272 350 1,882 1,882

UNWTD 594 318 276 161 229 204 314 249 31 168 151 166 109 411 183 132 199 65 14 84 100 594 594

Fianna Fail 22 17 28 26 18 25 22 21 30 21 17 26 27 21 24 100 - - - - - 22 22

Fine Gael 30 34 26 31 28 32 29 26 59 17 36 37 32 23 41 - 100 - - - - 30 30

Labour 12 10 13 11 14 9 13 12 - 15 16 8 5 14 8 - - 100 - - - 12 12

Green Party 3 2 4 6 3 1 5 1 3 3 3 4 1 3 3 - - - 100 - - 3 3

Sinn Fein 14 16 12 14 17 12 10 21 - 17 16 9 16 17 11 - - - - 100 - 14 14

Independent/Other 19 21 16 13 20 21 20 19 8 27 12 16 18 23 12 - - - - - 100 19 19

Sinn

Fein

Indep/

Others

Would

vote

J4237

Would

definitel

y vote


November TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll

Q10 In your opinion, should someone who is suffering with a terminal illness be allowed to end his or her own life by way of assisted suicide or not?

All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support

Page 11

Table 11

Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Leinster

Munster

Fieldwork : 1st - 13th Nov 2012

Conn/

Ulster

Urban Rural Fianna

Fail

Fine

Gael

Lab-our Green

Party

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

WTD Base: 3,293 1,590 1,703 1,062 1,243 988 1,304 1,735 254 953 832 916 593 1,981 1,313 530 751 242 44 402 374 950 2,811 2

UNWTD 951 468 483 308 356 287 448 447 56 277 239 257 178 657 294 158 230 76 13 114 120 240 823

Yes, should be

allowed

No, should not be

allowed

Don’t know (DO NOT

READ OUT)

69 72 66 71 77 56 73 67 63 67 70 72 67 70 68 60 67 82 86 80 79 62 69

26 22 29 23 17 39 22 28 31 27 24 23 30 25 27 38 27 17 10 11 15 31 25

6 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 6 5 3 6 6 3 6 1 4 8 6 7 6

Sinn

Fein

Indep/

Others

Would

not/DK

Would

vote

J4237

Wo

def

y v


November TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll

Q11 How likely would you be to vote if there was a General Election tomorrow?

All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support

Page 12

Table 12

Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Leinster

Munster

Fieldwork : 1st - 13th Nov 2012

Conn/

Ulster

Urban Rural Fianna

Fail

Fine

Gael

Lab-our Green

Party

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

WTD Base: 3,293 1,590 1,703 1,062 1,243 988 1,304 1,735 254 953 832 916 593 1,981 1,313 530 751 242 44 402 374 950 2,811 2

UNWTD 951 468 483 308 356 287 448 447 56 277 239 257 178 657 294 158 230 76 13 114 120 240 823

Would definitely vote 71 71 71 58 75 81 77 66 77 70 72 71 74 70 73 81 87 84 100 72 79 45 84

Would probably vote 14 15 13 23 10 9 9 18 14 14 15 13 14 14 15 12 10 6 - 17 11 22 16

Might/might not vote 4 5 4 5 5 4 4 5 5 4 4 6 3 5 3 3 3 3 - 6 4 7 -

Would probably not

vote

Would definitely not

vote

4 3 5 7 3 1 2 5 2 3 3 4 5 4 3 2 0 3 - 4 1 9 -

5 6 5 6 6 4 7 5 1 6 6 5 4 5 5 2 0 3 - 1 4 14 -

Don’t know 1 0 2 1 1 0 1 1 - 3 0 - 1 1 0 - - 1 - - 1 3 -

Mean 4.44 4.44 4.43 4.21 4.47 4.64 4.49 4.36 4.64 4.44 4.44 4.39 4.50 4.41 4.47 4.68 4.81 4.67 5.00 4.56 4.61 3.78 4.84

Sinn

Fein

Indep/

Others

Would

not/DK

Would

vote

J4237

Wo

def

y v


November TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll

Q12 And finally, to which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote in last February’s General Election?

All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support

Page 13

Table 13

Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Leinster

Munster

Fieldwork : 1st - 13th Nov 2012

Conn/

Ulster

Urban Rural Fianna

Fail

Fine

Gael

Lab-our Green

Party

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

WTD Base: 3,293 1,590 1,703 1,062 1,243 988 1,304 1,735 254 953 832 916 593 1,981 1,313 530 751 242 44 402 374 950 2,811 2

UNWTD 951 468 483 308 356 287 448 447 56 277 239 257 178 657 294 158 230 76 13 114 120 240 823

Fianna Fail 14 13 15 16 11 16 12 16 13 10 15 15 17 12 18 47 6 8 9 3 7 12 15

Fine Gael 32 36 29 25 37 34 33 28 55 21 35 37 41 26 42 24 75 14 16 9 24 22 36

Labour 12 11 13 7 14 16 13 13 3 19 14 8 4 15 7 13 6 62 11 5 10 8 13

Green Party 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 - 28 - 1 1 1

Sinn Fein 8 9 7 8 8 9 6 11 2 10 6 8 9 10 6 1 - 2 - 56 2 3 9

Independent/Other 8 9 6 5 9 10 9 8 2 13 5 6 6 10 5 3 0 3 10 6 40 5 9

Don’t know 12 9 16 15 12 11 13 11 21 14 12 11 13 13 12 6 7 5 25 9 12 24 12

Did not vote 12 12 12 23 8 5 13 13 3 11 12 14 9 13 10 7 6 7 - 12 5 24 6

Sinn

Fein

Indep/

Others

Would

not/DK

Would

vote

J4237

Wo

def

y v


November TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll

Q13 And finally, to which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote in last February’s General Election?

All Irish VotersAll

Voters Excluding did

not vote (Last Gen

Election)

Page 14

Table 14

Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support

Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Leinster

Munster

Fieldwork : 1st - 13th Nov 2012

Conn/

Ulster

Urban Rural Fianna

Fail

Fine

Gael

Lab-our Green

Party

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

WTD Base: 2,488 1,258 1,230 663 989 835 975 1,320 193 714 632 681 460 1,472 1,016 463 658 213 33 318 312 490 2,303 2

UNWTD 725 373 352 195 287 243 344 339 42 209 175 198 143 498 227 136 199 64 11 89 98 128 667

Fianna Fail 19 17 21 26 14 19 17 21 17 14 20 20 22 16 23 54 7 9 12 4 9 23 18

Fine Gael 43 46 40 41 46 40 44 37 72 27 46 49 53 35 54 27 86 15 21 11 29 43 44

Labour 16 14 18 11 17 18 18 17 4 25 19 11 5 21 9 14 6 70 15 7 11 16 16

Green Party 1 0 2 2 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 0 0 1 - 38 - 1 1 1

Sinn Fein 11 12 10 13 10 10 8 14 3 14 8 11 11 13 8 1 - 2 - 71 2 7 10

Independent/Other 10 12 9 7 11 12 12 10 3 18 6 8 8 13 6 4 0 3 14 8 48 11 10

Sinn

Fein

Indep/

Others

Would

not/DK

Would

vote

J4237

Wo

def

y v


Questionnaire


BEHAVIOUR & ATTITUDES POLL QUESTIONNAIRE – November 2012

Good Morning/afternoon/evening my name is ………………… (Name) and I am calling from

Behaviour and Attitudes, the independent market research company based in Dublin.

We are currently conducting a study on a number of issues. The study will take less than 10

minutes to complete.

The interview will be conducted in accordance with Market Research Society guidelines - all

results will be shown in aggregate form and for quality control purposes this call may be

monitored by a supervisor.

ASK ALL ADULTS 18YRS+

Q.1 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the

Government is running the country?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

Q.2 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Kenny is doing his job

as Taoiseach?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

Q.3 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Gilmore is doing his

job as Tanaiste?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

Q.4 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Martin is doing his job

as leader of Fianna Fail?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

J.4237


Q.5 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Adams is doing his job

as leader of Sinn Fein?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

Q.6 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Ryan is doing his job

as leader of The Green Party?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

Q.7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate

would you give your first preference vote? DO NOT READ OUT

Fianna Fail 1

Fine Gael 2

Labour Party 3

Green Party 4

Workers Party 5

Sinn Fein 6

Independent 7

Other specify _________________ 8

Don’t know 9

Would not vote 10

Q.8 In your opinion, should someone who is suffering with a terminal illness be allowed to

end his or her own life by way of assisted suicide or not?

Yes, should be allowed 1

No, should not be allowed 2

Don’t know 3


Q.9 How likely would you be to vote if there was a General Election tomorrow? PROBE TO

APPROPRIATE CODE

Would definitely vote 1

Would probably vote 2

Might/might not vote 3

Would probably not vote 4

Would definitely not vote 5

Don’t know 6

Q.10 And to which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote in

last year’s General Election? DO NOT READ OUT

Fianna Fail 1

Fine Gael 2

Labour 3

Green Party 4

Workers Party 5

Sinn Fein 6

Independent 7

Other specify _________________ 8

Don’t know 9

Did not vote 10

Q.11 Are you eligible to vote in Irish General Elections, or not?

Yes, eligible 1

No – not eligible 2

Don’t know 3

Q.12 And are you an Irish citizen, or not?

Yes 1

No 2

Don’t know 3


Thank You

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