Integrated Land Use Modelling for Urbanization Studies

Integrated Land Use Modelling for Urbanization Studies

IR3S Kick-off MeetingSustainable Development of a Rapidly Growing Ecnomy in Climate Change Era5 th -6 th Dec 2007, New Delhi, IndiaIntegrated Land Use Modelling- Experiences from AGENT-LUC ModelK S RajanInternational Institute of Information Technology, of Global EnvironmentalConstraints and Local Development(1)• “Think globally”......CO emissionfrom human activities (GtC/yr)2Policy targets of CO2 emission reductionusual businessS1000S750S600present levelof CO2emissionS550S450December 6 th , 2007Harmonization of Global EnvironmentalConstraints and Local Development(2)• “Act locally”deforestationSustainable development?Over grazingand over cultivationLand degradationInsignificant Significant Critical(ill-)Effects on the various systems and their magnitudesLife support system Resource Human welfareDrinking Natural Disasterwater scarcity Hunger/Hazardous air DroughtpollutionHazardous Decrease in Agri.wastes ProductivitySoil LossAirpollutionFutureDecrease incroplandLandUseDesertificationWater PollutionDeforestationUrban wasteEutrophicationin Lakes, seaLoss ofbio-diversityGround subsidencenowAcid rainOzone Layer destroyClimate ChangeTraffic jam inmetropolitan areasOffensive odoursTraffic vibrationAirport noiseLandscapedegradationCharacteristics of Land Use• Location specific• Complex phenomenon that links biophysicalfactors with socio-economic issues• Decision Making at different levels/scales– National food policy Intensive agriculture use– Water resources management Watershed boundaries– Changes in Life Style Consumption patterns New or Intensive Land uses– Profit Maximization vs. Cultural Relevance• Multi-dimensional– spatial, temporalIndiana – Early Settlers Cleared up the Entire Area1

Income Graph (Mainly Rural Area)Simulated Land Use Map (Zoomed view)Income Graph (Far from Urban Center)800000600000400000in Bahts2000000-2000001 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11-400000Revenue Gen_Cost On_Farm_Inc Off_Farm_Inc Gross_IncFixed CostVariable Cost- Land Based- Yield BasedModel Simulated Total Migration in the Period 1980-9090Model Simulationof Land Use forThailand1980-19901990Validation: 60-85% depending onthe ProvincesFurther Applications of the ModelModel Simulationof Land Use forThailand1980-19901990 Application to Bangladesh New multi-season approach to crop modelling Involving such seasonal changes in decision making Application to Laos Shifting Cultivation – spatial and temporal changes Forest land use changes Application to India Nature Conservation vs Human Needs Water resources Forest reserve Urban Modelling of Hyderabad6

Extension of the Urbanization ModellingStudy Area : Hue City, VietnamAn example ofVulnerability Assessment to Floods- is large scale urbanization posing largerproblems to Planners and Decision makers ?Characteristics of Hue City• Hue City of Thua Thien Hue province islocated in the central part of Vietnam.• Old Capital of Vietnam – Now a TouristAttraction• Total area of the province is 5,009 km 2.• Total population is 1,050,000 in 1999.• 70% of the total natural land is mountainous.Topography around Hue CityHue• Flood and storms are the main disasters– Almost AnnuallyLanduse Map of the Study AreaFlood Depth Map – Base SimulationFigure: Flood Depth Map at Peak Discharge in Kim Long (03.11.1999) for Base ConditionAcknowledge: APN Project 2004-059

Flood Depth Map – 30cm Sea Level RiseFlood Depth Map – 88cm Sea Level RiseFigure: Flood Depth Map at Peak Discharge in Kim Long (03.11.1999) for 30 cm Sea Level RiseFigure: Flood Depth Map at Peak Discharge in Kim Long (03.11.1999) for 88cm Sea Level RiseDifference in Flood Depthwith 100cm and 30cm Sea Level RiseSocio-Economic Simulations• Urban Area and Population Changes– Economic development– Population Growth– Migration– Increase of Floor area per capitaSpatial Simulation is carried out based on IPCCSRES B1 Scenario of Economic growth andPopulation changesSimulation of Urban Land UseSimulation of Urban Land Use10

Simulation of Urban Land UseSimulation of Urban Land UseSimulation of Urban Land UseUrban SprawlPopulation in Hue and NeighboringDistrictsPopulation (in Million)4.543.532.521.510.502000 2025 2050 2075 2100YearSim Popln (Hue+4 districts) Share Ratio876543210PercentagesSocio-Economic Impacts– Area Change in 2000, 2050 and 2100due to different levels of SeaLevel RiseNumber of Grids350300250200150100500Area-2000 Area-2050 Area-2100Base in 1999 30cm Sea Level Rise 100cm Sea Level Rise11

So, Water Resources in South Asia face1. the combined challenge of Scarcity vs. Increasingdemand and Pollution2. Challenges both within and between water usesystems (agricultural vs. domestic)3. Linkages/Relationships within and betweensystems are not clearly evident and are shaped bysocial, political, hydrological and economicprocesses.In India, Fresh Water Use- about 65% for Agriculture- about 8% for domestic use incld drinking water.Thank You !!Questions/Comments Please ……14

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