AIAS Demand Capacity November 15, 2012 - PDC Projects Online

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AIAS Demand Capacity November 15, 2012 - PDC Projects Online

Preliminary Demand Capacity AnalysisPresentation to Fairbanks AMP Airport Advisory Board11-15-12


Agenda• Forecasts – Focus on Daily & Hourly Ops• Runway Operating Scenarios Modeled• Overview of Runway Delay Results• Briefly Review Detailed Information For SelectedScenarios• Discuss Untenable Delay Horizons• Capacity Balancing Analysis• Review General Facility Needs For Tech Stop Aircraft


Forecast Info• Anchorage• Existing 211,409 Annual 728 Avg. Day/Peak Month• Future 1 242,275 Annual 860 Avg. Day/Peak Month• Future 2 281,942 Annual 1,004 Avg. Day/Peak Month• Fairbanks• Existing 121,145 Annual 526 Avg. Day/Peak Month• Future 1 136,248 Annual 602 Avg. Day/Peak Month• Future 2 156,128 Annual 690 Avg. Day/Peak Month


Scenarios Modeled-FairbanksConfiguration 1(VFR)Configuration 1(IFR)FAI Capacity is Essentially the same for North and South Flow


Delay Results Overview-BasePreliminaryVFRIFRAnchorageConfig 1 Config 2 Config 4VFR 62% 22% 3%IFR 10%Future 1 Future 2 Future 1 Future 2 Future 1 Future 2Arrivals 1.8 3.5 3.8 10.7 186.6 445.0Departures 16.3 38.6 3.4 9.6 64.3 69.2Arrivals 7.0 20.3Departures 14.8 37.4Percentage Use AnnuallyAverage Minutes Delay –Peak HourVFRIFRFairbanksConfig 1VFR 95%IFR 5%Reduced GA-IFRFuture 1 Future 2 Future 1 Future 2Arrivals 0.9 1.2Departures 0.9 1.7Arrivals 1.0 2.0Departures 0.4 0.5Percentage Use AnnuallyAverage Minutes Delay –Peak Hour


Future 2


Future 2


Future 2


Delay Results Overview-BasePreliminaryVFRIFRAnchorageConfig 1 Config 2 Config 4VFR 62% 22% 3%IFR 10%Future 1 Future 2 Future 1 Future 2 Future 1 Future 2Arrivals 1.8 3.5 3.8 10.7 186.6 445.0Departures 16.3 38.6 3.4 9.6 64.3 69.2Arrivals 7.0 20.3Departures 14.8 37.4Percentage Use AnnuallyAverage Minutes Delay –Peak HourVFRIFRFairbanksConfig 1VFR 95%IFR 5%Reduced GA-IFRFuture 1 Future 2 Future 1 Future 2Arrivals 0.9 1.2Departures 0.9 1.7Arrivals 1.0 2.0Departures 0.4 0.5Percentage Use AnnuallyAverage Minutes Delay –Peak Hour


Untenable Delay Discussion• What Is Untenable Delay?• Current Conclusion Is 30 Minutes Average Delay DuringCritical Hours• Needs To Happen With Sufficient Frequency (10% or more ofTime?)• Based Upon Input From Last Master Plan That NetworkCargo Carriers Work Hard To Meet The Turn Time Of 1.5Hours For Eastbound Flights• ANC Aircraft Are Normally The Last To Reach Hubs In Lower48• Each Late Arrival From ANC Can Delay Dozens Of OtherAircraft


Why 30 Minutes?• Desire Is To Keep Alaska Competitive For Air Cargo• As Stated Above, 90 Minutes Is the Maximum Ground TurnTime That Network Cargo Carriers Strive to Meet or Beat.• 30 Minutes Increases Turn Time By 33% and Total GroundTime By 28%, Which Multiplies Through The System• Carriers Have Stated That Flights Delayed By 30 Minutes areIn Jeopardy Of Missing The Sort• 30 Minutes Is Twice The Delay Level of 15 Minutes ThatFAA Considers Significant• 20 Minutes Average Daily Delay is FAA Standard For BCAAnalysis. 30 Minutes (50% Increase) Seems ReasonableFor Standard For Peak Hour Average Delays Given OtherInformation


Capacity Balancing StrategyTotal OperationsOverall Critical Hours


Tech Stop Airlines Move To FAI• 5Y - Atlas• BR – Eva Air• CA – Air China• CI – China Airlines• CK – China Cargo Airlines• CX – Cathay Pacific• EZ - Evergreen• K4 - Kalitta• KE - Korean• KZ – Nippon Cargo• OZ - Asiana• SOO - Southern• SQ - Singapore• WO – World Airlines


Tech Stop Operations to Move•Future 1 – 144 Operations Daily•Future 2 – 180 Operations Daily


50% Tech Stop Airlines Move To FAI


Delay Results Overview-BasePreliminaryVFRIFRAnchorageConfig 1 Config 2 Config 4VFR 62% 22% 3%IFR 10%Future 1 Future 2 Future 1 Future 2 Future 1 Future 2Arrivals 1.8 3.5 3.8 10.7 186.6 445.0Departures 16.3 38.6 3.4 9.6 64.3 69.2Arrivals 7.0 20.3Departures 14.8 37.4Percentage Use AnnuallyAverage Minutes Delay –Peak HourVFRIFRFairbanksConfig 1VFR 95%IFR 5%Reduced GA-IFRFuture 1 Future 2 Future 1 Future 2Arrivals 0.9 1.2Departures 0.9 1.7Arrivals 1.0 2.0Departures 0.4 0.5Percentage Use AnnuallyAverage Minutes Delay –Peak Hour


Delay Results OverviewAll Tech Stop Move To FAI PreliminaryVFRIFRAnchorageConfig 1 Config 2 Config 4VFR 62% 22% 3%IFR 10%Future 1 Future 2 Future 1 Future 2 Future 1 Future 2Arrivals 1.8 2.8 4.4 6.2 62.2 193.2Departures 3.6 9.2 2.4 4.8 24.8 38.7Arrivals 6.3 13.7Departures 3.2 10.2Percentage Use AnnuallyAverage Minutes Delay –Peak HourVFRIFRFairbanksConfig 1VFR 95%IFR 5%Reduced GA-IFRFuture 1 Future 2 Future 1 Future 2Arrivals 0.8 1.1Departures 2.3 2.9Arrivals 2.3 3.1Departures 1.8 2.7Percentage Use AnnuallyAverage Minutes Delay –Peak Hour


Delay Results OverviewComparison – Base/All Tech PrelimVFRIFRAnchorageConfig 1 Config 2 Config 4VFR 62% 22% 3%IFR 10%Future 1 Future 2 Future 1 Future 2 Future 1 Future 2Arrivals 0.0 -0.7 0.6 -4.5 -124.4 -251.8Departures -12.7 -29.4 -1.0 -4.8 -39.5 -30.5Arrivals -0.6 -6.6Departures -11.6 -27.2Percentage Use AnnuallyDifference in AverageMinutes Delay – PeakHourVFRIFRFairbanksConfig 1 Reduced GA-IFRVFR 95%IFR 5%Future 1 Future 2 Future 1 Future 2Arrivals -0.1 -0.1Departures 1.4 1.2Arrivals 1.3 1.1Departures 1.4 2.2Percentage Use AnnuallyDifference in AverageMinutes Delay – PeakHour


Trigger Point Discussion• Trigger Point Is When Action Needs To Be Taken To AvoidUntenable Delay• Trigger Point Varies Depending On Solution• Solution with Limited Capital Projects May Require 1 or 2 Yearsof Preparation• Total 1-2 Years• Physical Improvements To Accept Additional Aircraft AtFairbanks Could Require Some Environmental Review• 1-2 Years Planning & Environmental, 1-2 Years Design, 1-2 YearsConstruction – Total 3-6 Years• Significant Improvement Such as New Runway Would RequireSignificant Lead Time• 3-5 Years Planning and Environmental, 3-4 Years Design, 4-6 YearsConstruction – Total 10 -15 Years


Summary Of Tech Stop Facilities


AIAS Tech Stop Summary Existing CapacityFAIANCRunways • 11,800’ – CAT III• 12,400’ – CAT III• 11,584’ – CAT I• 10,600’ – CAT I• Rare closure of runway for snow • Usually able to keep 2 runways openremovalduring snow removalTaxiways • Full parallel taxiway• Full parallel taxiways• Short taxi distance for departures • Short taxi distance for departures/• Minimal congestion, except arrivalsduring diversions• Some congestion along Taxiway Kand in terminal areaAprons • 6 drive thru hardstands • 14 drive thru hardstands• 16 push back supplementalhardstandsFuel • 980,000 gallons storage on airport• 60 minutes to fill a tech stopaircraftDeice • Minimal deicing due to drierclimate and less freeze/thawcyclesMaintenance• Colder climate and lack of hangarspace• Limited mechanics and no partspool• 56 million gallons storage on airportand at Port• 60 minutes to fill a tech stop aircraft• Frequent deicing, but well equipped• Availability of FedEx hangar• Plenty of mechanics and parts poolsharing parts


Current Capacity100% Tech Stop Shift to FAIEstimated CapacityNeeded by 2020: If all techstop traffic moves to FAI 1Estimated Capacity Neededby 2030: If all tech stoptraffic moves to FAI 2Apron 6 10 additional 13 additional980,000 gallons ~35 million gallons ~44 million gallonsFuel2 truck refill spotsHydrant SystemHydrant System8 - 10,000 gallon trucksDeice 2 spots 1 additional spot 2 additional spots1 Represents estimated needed capacity if all forecasted 72 tech stops move from ANC toFAI with a maximum of 9 per hour.2 Represents the estimated capacity if all forecasted 90 tech stops move from ANC to FAI with amaximum of 10 per hour.


Current Capacity50% Tech Stop Shift to FAIEstimated CapacityNeeded by 2020: If 50% oftech stop traffic moves toFAI 1Estimated Capacity Neededby 2030: If 50% of tech stoptraffic moves to FAI 2Apron 6 2 additional 9 additional980,000 gallons ~18 million gallons ~22 million gallonsFuel2 truck refill spots8 - 10,000 gallon trucksHydrant SystemHydrant SystemDeice 2 spots 1 additional spot 2 additional spots1 Represents estimated needed capacity if 50% of forecasted 72 tech stops move from ANCto FAI with a maximum of 9 per hour.2 Represents estimated needed capacity if 50% of forecasted 90 tech stops move from ANC toFAI with a maximum of 10 per hour.


This is preliminary information and we continue tosolicit input from the airlines.Please contact:Tom Middendorftmiddendorf@dowlhkm.com or 907-562-2000 orGreg Albjerggalbjerg@hntb.com or 763-852-2100

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