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The Irish Maritime Transport Economist - Volume 10 - Marine Institute

The Irish Maritime Transport Economist - Volume 10 - Marine Institute

Irish

Irish Market28ROLL-ON / ROLL-OFF MARKET: PORTSRoll-on/roll-off (ro/ro) traffic declined during 2012,with freight volumes falling by 2%, to 1,571,820 freightunits. Traffic in the ROI and NI declined by 2% and 3%respectively, the first annual decline from the Islandof Ireland since 2009. However, the market has notwitnessed any substantial quarterly growth sinceQ1 2011. There was some positive news with directcontinental services to France, Belgium and Netherlandsincreasing in total by 5% to 113,616 freight units.The Ireland to UK market is the predominant marketfor ro/ro trades, accounting for 93% of total volume.Traffic volumes from ROI and NI in this sector fell by 2%respectively. Driver accompanied traffic from the Islandof Ireland accounted for 41% of freight volumes, with theremainder being unaccompanied, which is in line with2011 figures.Traffic volumes through most ports remained subduedduring the first half of 2012. However, the third quarterimproved modestly, with positive traffic volumes acrossthe Island. The increase was short-lived however due toa 2% decline in the fourth quarter on an All-Island basis.Six of the seven ports handling ro/ro traffic witnessed adecline in volumes last year. The only port to record anincrease in volume was Belfast, up 21% year on year, butthis was primarily at a loss to its nearby competitors,largely as a result of consolidation and restructuring byoperators. Subsequently Belfast saw a rise in its marketshare to 28%, although Dublin Port again accountedfor the largest percentage of ro/ro market share at 46%.Distribution of volumes between ROI and NI remainedunchanged at 53% and 47% respectively.Ro/ro volumes have declined by 11% from the peakof the market in 2007 but remain higher than levelswitnessed in 2009. However, the reclassification of somero/ro traffic (from lo/lo) in 2009 has inflated figures,meaning without this traffic reclassification, volumedecline would have been more severe (-3% instead of-2% in 2012).Ro-ro traffic is a simple but effective indicator of howthe economies of ROI and the UK are performing. TheUK economy experienced another tough year during2012, remaining in recession as continued austeritystifled growth prospects. This culminated in the loss ofits coveted triple-a credit rating from Moody’s ratingagency while weak manufacturing data at the start of2013 led analysts to forecast a third recession in fouryears. The results of ro/ro traffic during 2012 reflect theweaknesses in both economies at present. Our outlookis that the market will remain broadly flat in 2013 withany growth most likely continuing to occur on directcontinental services.Table 15ARoll-on/Roll-off Freight Traffic 2012PortTotal2011 2012 % Change % ShareDublin 724,728 719,121 -1% 46%Rosslare 118,888 113,781 -4% 7%Cork 4,387 828 -81% 0.05%Dun Laoghaire 859 711 -17% 0.05%Belfast 356,865 432,438 21% 28%Larne 309,183 215,357 -30% 14%Warrenpoint 91,613 89,584 -2% 6%Total ROI 848,862 834,441 -2% 53%Total NI 757,661 737,379 -3% 47%Total IRL 1,606,523 1,571,820 -2% 100%Source: IMDOTable 15BRoll-on/Roll-off Freight Traffic 2012Port Accompanied % Unaccompanied %2011 2012 Ch. 2011 2012 Ch.Dublin 296,530 288,329 -3% 428,198 430,792 1%Rosslare 66,531 64,803 -3% 52,357 48,978 -6%Cork 2,871 692 -76% 1,516 136 -91%Dun Laoghaire 859 711 -17% - - -Belfast 125,003 159,670 28% 231,862 272,768 18%Larne 161,141 127,866 -21% 148,042 87,491 -41%Warrenpoint 6,579 6,236 -5% 85,034 83,348 -2%Total ROI 366,791 354,535 -3% 482,071 479,906 0%Total NI 292,723 293,772 0% 464,938 443,607 -5%Total IRL 659,514 648,307 -2% 947,009 923,513 -2%Source: IMDOGRAPH 15AMarket Share of Roll-on/Roll-off Traffic by Port 201228%0.05%14%Source: IMDO6%7%0.05%46%DublinRosslareCorkDun LaoghaireLarneBelfastWarrenpoint

GRAPH 16AQuarterly Roll-on/Roll-off Freight TrafficNo. of freight units420,000410,000400,000390,000380,0002011 2012ROLL-ON / ROLL-OFF MARKET: OPERATORSThere were seven ro/ro freight operators providingregular scheduled ro/ro freight services during 2012 -Irish Ferries, P&O, Stena, Seatruck, Celtic Link, BrittanyFerries, and Cobelfret - operating 32 vessels on 19 routesbetween Ireland, Great Britain and Northern Europe. Themarket stabilized last year after 2011 had seen a largeamount of restructuring resulting from the exit of DFDS,who had 24% of the all Ireland market.370,000360,000Source: IMDOGRAPH 16BGRAPH 16CQ1Q2Market Share of Ireland-UK: Roll-on/Roll-off traffic201218%Ro/Ro Freight Traffic per Corridor800,000700,000600,000500,000400,000300,00026%Source: IMDO12%44%Q3Q4StenaP&OSeatruckIrish Ferries2010 2011 2012We segment the analysis between the four primarycorridors, Northern, Central, Southern and DirectContinental. Market share remained largely unchangedbetween the corridors last year. Volumes on thestrategically important Central Corridor fell by 2%.P&O, Irish Ferries, Stena and Seatruck all operateon this corridor, providing sixteen daily services toLiverpool, Holyhead, and Heysham. Stena maintainedtheir seasonal service from Dun Laoghaire with the HSS“Stena Explorer”, while P&O maintained three vessels onits Dublin-Liverpool route, which is being serviced by theEuropean Endeavour, Norbank and Norbay.On the Northern Corridor, volumes declined for thefirst time since 2009 by 2%. Stena, P&O and Seatruckall operate services on this corridor to Liverpool(Birkenhead), Heysham, and Cairnryan. Stena, who werecleared by the UK Competition Authority to purchase theroutes of DFDS, now control 58% of the market share inNorthern Ireland. Seatruck moved their Heysham servicefrom Larne to Belfast in May and decided to discontinuethis service in August to focus on their Warrenpoint andDublin services. The Seatruck vessels, “Performance” and“Precision”, were subsequently chartered by Stena fortheir Belfast-Heysham service, while the final newbuildof a quartet of ro/ro freight-only ferries to enter Irish Seaservice was delivered to Seatruck during 2012.The Continental Corridor with direct continental servicesfrom Dublin, Rosslare and Cork is now the third largestof the all-Island corridors. Traffic volumes continued toremain buoyant on this route, with Cobelfret, BrittanyFerries, Celtic Link, and Irish Ferries all providing services.Cobelfret further increased their capacity from Dublin inearly 2013 from three to four vessels, which is likely tocontribute to further growth this year. On the SouthernCorridor, volumes continued to decline, falling by 9%.Irish Market200,000100,0000CentralSource: IMDONorthernSouthernContinentalThe market, going into 2013, is likely to be broadlysimilar to 2012 with flat to negative prospects, howeverif growth were to occur it would most likely come onthe continental corridors. Any longer term recovery willultimately depend on improvements in Irish and Britishtrade volumes.29

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