Market Briefing: Global Markets

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Market Briefing: Global Markets

Market Briefing:Global MarketsYardeni Research, Inc.July 31, 2014Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683eyardeni@yardeni.comMali Quintana480-664-1333aquintana@yardeni.comPlease visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.comthinking outside the box


Table Of ContentsTable Of ContentsUS Stock Indexes 1MSCI Indexes 2-5Stock Markets: USA 6Stock Markets: Americas 7Stock Markets: Europe 8-9Stock Markets: Asia 10-11Stock Markets: Eastern Europe, Middle East, Africa 12US$ Forex Rates: Europe 13US$ Forex Rates: Asia 14US$ Forex Rates: Americas 15Trade-Weighted Dollar 1610-Year Government Yields 17Commodity Indexes 18Commodity Prices: Energy 19Commodity Prices: Basic Materials 20Commodity Prices: Precious Metals 21Commodity Prices: Agriculture 22July 31, 2014 / Market Briefing: Global MarketsYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com


US Stock Indexes2200Figure 1.S&P 500 INDEX2200200018007/3120001800160016001400140012001200100010008008006002002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016200-day moving average.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.yardeni.com6001770016800Figure 2.DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE7/3117700168001590015900150001500014100141001320013200123001230011400114001050010500960096008700870078007800690060002002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016200-day moving average.Source: The Wall Street Journal.yardeni.com69006000Page 1 / July 31, 2014 / Market Briefing: Global MarketsYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com


1900180017001600150014001300120011001000900800700600500Figure 3.SHARE PRICE INDEXES(US dollars)WorldMSCI Indexes2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20167/31190018001700160015001400130012001100100090080070060050024002200200018001600140012007/3124002200200018001600140012001000Europe10008008006002002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201660026002400220020001800160014001200EAFE*7/312600240022002000180016001400120010001000800yardeni.com2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016800200-day moving average* The following countries are included: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain,Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Israel, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Japan.Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International.Page 2 / July 31, 2014 / Market Briefing: Global MarketsYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com


MSCI Indexes21001900Figure 4.SHARE PRICE INDEXES(US dollars)210019001700150013007/311700150013001100900700500WorldUS2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20161100900700500250023002100190017001500130011009007005002000180016001400120010008006004002007/31WorldEAFE*2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*Europe, Austrailia, and Far East.7/31WorldEmerging Markets2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International.25002300210019001700150013001100900700500200018001600140012001000800600400200Page 3 / July 31, 2014 / Market Briefing: Global MarketsYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com


MSCI Indexes40003000Figure 5.SHARE PRICE INDEXES(US dollars)WorldJapan4000300020007/3120001000100002002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201601900190017001500WorldUnited Kingdom7/311700150013001300110011009009007007005002002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201650020003001800160014007/3125020012001000800600WorldEMU2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International.15010050Page 4 / July 31, 2014 / Market Briefing: Global MarketsYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com


MSCI Indexes1600140012001000800Figure 6.SHARE PRICE INDEXES(ratio scale, US dollars)7/311600140012001000800600600400Emerging Markets4002002002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20162007007005007/31500300300Emerging Markets:Asia1002002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016100650055004500350025007/31650055004500350025001500Emerging Markets:Latin America1500500yardeni.com2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016500200-day moving averageSource: Morgan Stanley Capital International.Page 5 / July 31, 2014 / Market Briefing: Global MarketsYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com


Stock Markets: USA1910017100151001310011100910071005100Figure 7.DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS7/3102 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16NASDAQ7/3102 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 164800440040003600320028002400200016001200800210019001700150013001100900700500S&P 5007/3102 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16RUSSELL 20007/3102 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1613251250117511001025950875800725650575500425350275220002000018000160001400012000100008000WILSHIRE 50007/31S&P 500 TRANSPORTATION7/31575525475425375325275225175600002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1602 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16125120001100010000NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE7/31S&P 500 UTILITIES7/3125020090008000150700060001005000400002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16yardeni.com02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1650200-day moving averageSource: Reuters America, Inc and Standard and Poor’s Corporation.Page 6 / July 31, 2014 / Market Briefing: Global MarketsYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com


Stock Markets: Americas2000Figure 8.UNITED STATES MSCI(all indexes in US dollars)7/31ARGENTINA MSCI5000400015007/31300010002000100050002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1602 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16025002300210019001700150013001100900700500CANADA MSCI7/3102 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16CHILE MSCI7/3102 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1630002000100008000MEXICO MSCI7/31PERU MSCI200060007/31400010002000002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16yardeni.com02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1605000200-day moving average.Source: BRAZIL Morgan MSCI Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics.4000300020007/311000002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16200-day moving average.Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics.Page 7 / July 31, 2014 / Market Briefing: Global MarketsYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com


Stock Markets: Europe260024002200200018001600140012001000800600Figure 9.EUROPE MSCI(all indexes in US dollars)7/3102 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16IRELAND MSCI7/3102 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1680070060050040030020010002500FRANCE MSCIITALY MSCI900200070015007/3150010007/3130050002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1602 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 161002800260024002200200018001600140012001000800600400GERMANY MSCI7/3102 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16NETHERLANDS MSCI7/3102 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 163500300025002000150010005001500GREECE MSCISPAIN MSCI100010008007/3160050040007/3102 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16yardeni.com02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16200200-day moving average.Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics.Page 8 / July 31, 2014 / Market Briefing: Global MarketsYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com


10000Figure 10.SWEDEN MSCI(all indexes in US dollars)Stock Markets: Europe1000080007/3180006000600040004000200020000600050002002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016SWITZERLAND MSCI7/31060005000400040003000300020002000100020002002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016UNITED KINGDOM MSCI1000200015007/311500100010005002002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016200-day moving average.Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics.yardeni.com500Page 9 / July 31, 2014 / Market Briefing: Global MarketsYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com


Stock Markets: Asia14001200Figure 11.AUSTRALIA MSCI(all indexes in US dollars)CHINA MSCI12010010008007/317/318060600404002020002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1602 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16040003500JAPAN MSCI1200010000HONG KONG MSCI7/3130002500200015007/318000600040001000200002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1602 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16600SOUTH KOREA MSCI7/31TAIWAN MSCI7/31350300400250200200150002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16yardeni.com02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16100200-day moving average.Source: SINGAPORE Morgan Stanley MSCI Capital International and Haver Analytics.7/3170060050040030020002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16100Page 10 / July 31, 2014 / Market Briefing: Global MarketsYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com


Stock Markets: Asia12001000Figure 12.INDONESIA MSCI(all indexes in US dollars)THE PHILIPPINES MSCI7/317006008007/31500400600300400200200100002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1602 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 160600MALAYSIA MSCIINDIA MSCI8005007/316004007/3140030020020010002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1602 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 160500THAILAND MSCIPAKISTAN MSCI2504007/312003007/3115020010010050002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16yardeni.com02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 160200-day moving average.Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics.Page 11 / July 31, 2014 / Market Briefing: Global MarketsYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com


200015001000500Stock Markets: Eastern Europe, Middle East, AfricaFigure 13.RUSSIA MSCI(all indexes in US dollars)7/31ISRAEL MSCI7/31400300200100002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1602 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1602000POLAND MSCITURKEY MSCI80015007/3160010007/31400500200002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1602 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1601500HUNGARY MSCIEGYPT MSCI1500100010007/315007/31500002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16yardeni.com02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 160110010009008007006005004003002001000CZECH REPUBLIC MSCI7/3102 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16200-day moving average.Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics.SOUTH AFRICA MSCI7/3102 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16700600500400300200100Page 12 / July 31, 2014 / Market Briefing: Global MarketsYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com


1.71.61.51.41.31.21.11.0.9.82.32.1Figure 14.EUROPE($/Euro)2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016UNITED KINGDOM($/Pound)US$ Forex Rates: Europe7/311.71.61.51.41.31.21.11.0.9.82.32.11.91.91.77/311.71.51.51.34.55.56.57.58.59.510.511.5.4.6.81.01.21.41.61.82.02002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016SWEDEN(Krona/$)2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016SWITZERLAND(Swiss Franc/$)2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20167/317/31yardeni.com1.34.55.56.57.58.59.510.511.5.4.6.81.01.21.41.61.82.0200-day moving averageSource: Haver Analytics.Page 13 / July 31, 2014 / Market Briefing: Global MarketsYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com


US$ Forex Rates: Asia6080Figure 15.JAPAN(Yen/$)CHINA(Yuan/$)7/255.66.06.41007/316.87.21207.68.014002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1602 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 168.4.81.01.21.4AUSTRALIA(inverted scale, A$/US$)7/31MALAYSIA(Ringgit/$)7/252.53.01.61.83.52.02.202 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1602 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 164.08001000SOUTH KOREA(Won/$)7/25INDONESIA(Rupiah/$)6000800012001000014007/3112000160002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1602 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1614000756555INDIA(Rupee/$)7/31THAILAND(Baht/$)7/312530354045453502 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16yardeni.com02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1650Source: Haver Analytics.Page 14 / July 31, 2014 / Market Briefing: Global MarketsYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com


US$ Forex Rates: Americas.8.91.01.11.21.31.41.51.61.7Figure 16.CANADA(C$/US$)7/3102 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16MEXICO(Peso/$)7/3102 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16678910111213141516.1.61.11.62.12.63.13.64.14.6BRAZIL(Real/$)7/3102 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16ARGENTINA(Peso/$)7/3102 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16.0.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.07.58.08.59.0300350400450500550600650700750800CHILE(Peso/$)7/3102 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16VENEZUELA(Bolivar Fuerte/$)7/2502 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1698765432101200160020002400COLOMBIA(Peso/$)7/31PERU(New Sol/$)7/312.22.42.62.83.03.22800320002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16yardeni.com02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 163.43.63.8200-day moving averageSource: Morgan Stanley Capital International.Page 15 / July 31, 2014 / Market Briefing: Global MarketsYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com


115110Figure 17.JP MORGAN TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX*(2000=100)Trade-Weighted Dollar11511010510510010095959090857/3185808075yardeni.com95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1675200-day moving average.* Canada, Mexico, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, China, Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Euro, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and UK.Source: JP Morgan.1401351301251201151101051009590858075706560Figure 18.FED’S TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEXESMajor*(3/73=100)Broad**(1/97=100)95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 167/257/25yardeni.com1401351301251201151101051009590858075706560* Major index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange rates of the US dollar against the Euro Area, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Switzerland,Australia, and Sweden. The Euro Area includes Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, Belgium/Luxembourg, Ireland, Spain, Austria, Finland, Portugal, & Greece.** Broad index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange rates of the US dollar against the Euro Area, Canada, Japan, Mexico, China, UK, Taiwan,Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Brazil, Switzerland, Thailand, Philippines, Australia, Indonesia, India, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Sweden,Argentina, Venezuela, Chile, and Columbia.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.Page 16 / July 31, 2014 / Market Briefing: Global MarketsYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com


10-Year Government Yields6.05.5Figure 19.UNITED STATESGERMANY6.05.55.05.04.54.03.53.02.52.01.57/317/314.54.03.53.02.52.01.51.01.002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1602 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16.57.56.5CANADASWEDEN6.56.05.55.55.04.54.54.03.53.53.02.51.57/317/312.52.01.51.0.502 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1602 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16.56.56.0UNITED KINGDOMJAPAN2.55.55.02.04.54.01.53.53.02.52.07/317/311.0.51.51.002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16yardeni.com02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16.0200 day moving averageSource: MMS International and Haver Analytics.Page 17 / July 31, 2014 / Market Briefing: Global MarketsYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com


525475Figure 20.CRB FUTURES PRICE INDEX(1967=100)Commodity Indexes5254754254253753753253252757/3127522522517595 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16200-day moving averageSource: Haver Analytics.yardeni.com17511501050Figure 21.CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEXES(1967=100)115010509508507/31950850750750650550Raw IndustrialsMetals65055045045035035025015095 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16Source: Haver Analytics.yardeni.com250150Page 18 / July 31, 2014 / Market Briefing: Global MarketsYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com


19017015013011090705030Figure 22.WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATECRUDE OIL PRICE(dollars per barrel)7/312006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Commodity Prices: EnergyHEATING OIL FUTURES PRICE*(dollar per gallon)7/312006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20165.04.64.23.83.43.02.62.21.81.41.0.6170150130110907050BRENT CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE*(dollars per barrel)7/31NATURAL GAS FUTURES PRICE*(dollar per MMBTU)7/3119171513119753302006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20162006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201614.53.9GASOLINE FUTURES PRICE*(dollars per gallon)3.32.77/312.11.5.9.3yardeni.com2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016200-day moving average* Nearby contract.Source: Haver Analytics.Page 19 / July 31, 2014 / Market Briefing: Global MarketsYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com


Commodity Prices: Basic Materials13001100Figure 23.CRB SPOT PRICE INDEX: METALS(daily, 1967=100)STAINLESS STEEL SCRAP(dollars per gr. ton)500040009007/313000700500Includes copper scrap,lead scrap, steel scrap,tin, and zinc7/31200010003002006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20162006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160500400COPPER FUTURES PRICE*(dollars per pound)TIN(cents per pound)250020003007/317/29150010002005001002006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20162006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016030025020015010050LEAD, RN NA SOLDER(cents per pound)7/292006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016ZINC(cents per pound)7/31yardeni.com2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201627025023021019017015013011090705030200-day moving average* Nearby contract.Source: Haver Analytics.Page 20 / July 31, 2014 / Market Briefing: Global MarketsYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com


19751800162514501275110092575057540022552484440363228242016128424002200200018001600140012001000800600Figure 24.GOLD FUTURES PRICE*(dollars per troy ounce)2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015SILVER FUTURES PRICE*(dollars per troy ounce)2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015PLATINUM FUTURES PRICE*(dollars per troy ounce)Commodity Prices: Precious Metals2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20157/317/317/31197518001625145012751100925750575400225524844403632282420161284240022002000180016001400120010008006001000800PALLADIUM SPOT PRICE($/troy oz)7/2910008006006004004002002000yardeni.com2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015200-day moving average*Nearby contract.Source: Haver Analytics.0Page 21 / July 31, 2014 / Market Briefing: Global MarketsYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com


850750650550450Figure 25.CORN FUTURES PRICE*(cents per bushel)Commodity Prices: Agriculture85075065055045035025015019501750155013501150950750550350140013001200110010009008007006005004003002002502002006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015SOYBEANS FUTURES PRICE*(cents per bushel)2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015WHEAT FUTURES PRICE*(cents per bushel)2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015COTTON FUTURES PRICE*($/pound)7/317/317/3135025015019501750155013501150950750550350140013001200110010009008007006005004003002002502001501501005007/31yardeni.com2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015200-day moving average*Nearby contract, closing price.Source: Haver Analytics.100500Page 22 / July 31, 2014 / Market Briefing: Global MarketsYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com


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