Ian PearsonA trip to the futurewww.futurizon.com
The singularity(critical level positive feedback in technology development)Tech levelInvention curve cango almost verticalImplementationrate is limitedExponent increases rapidlyas tech improves,especially as AI kicks inNormal tech progress020002020 2040
Climate solutions cominge.g. solar farmingSupercablesElectricitySolar farmsHydrogen• Sahara: 9M sq km• Solar power =8.5kWh/sq m/day at12% efficiency• Over 600TW capability• Total human usagetoday = 13.5TW• The Sahara alone couldsupply 40x more energythan we need for thewhole planet
Transport sustainabilitywe need more advanced tech, not to go backwardsSustainability& quality oflifeSlow, dirty,expensive &inefficientSlow, dirty,dangerous,expensiveFast, clean,cheapsafe, efficient0-60 in 4s,quiet, zeroemissionsTechnology level
IT progress gives us more for lessAnd it isn’tover yet!!!
Device sizeand powerconsumptionRapid obsolescenceImpact = device population x device impactslowNumber ofdevicesfasttimeThe faster we go through the obsolescence cycle, thesmaller the overall environmental impact
Electronic jewelleryCommunication,data distributionMedicalmonitoring,alarmsSensingSocial statusAnyformNetworkingDigital imageaugmentationDigital bubbleDecorationMobilewebsiteIdentification,securityTribal signallingMiniaturisation will bring everyday IT down to lapel-pin size. Combinations ofdevices can monitor and relay a wide variety of data. Potential to generate a1984 style surveillance society.
Privacy erosionLevels of government and corporatesurveillance are already high, but peopleare getting increasingly upset about theerosion of their privacy and freedomIf there is a backlash against it, you don’twant to be on the wrong side!
Display evolutionWill also see lots of very large wall displays, coffeetable displays, digital windows, recipe tablets etc
Active contact lens(Pearson 1991)laserfocusingmicromirrorlasersLaserProcessingMicromirrorLaserInductivepowersupplyretinaGaze direction sensor• Resolution limited by the eye• Allows natural distance perception• Tiny environmental footprintGazedirectionsensorComms& ctrlLaserDiamondsubstrate
Duality &Augmented Reality• People, buildings andobjects can emit aninteractive digital ‘aura’• Hi-res, 3D informationoverlays for email, leisure,socialisation, navigation etc• Dual appearance– Can blend games into realworld– You can choose how youappear– Everyone can see the worlddifferently– Fight off aliens while yourpartner chooses an outfit.
Digital mirror, active make-upCan customiseboth your realand avatarappearancesParticles in activemakeup could becontrolledelectronically, tochange allthrough the day
NBIC Convergence(nano-bio-info-cogno)Nanotech givesus tiny devicesTiny sensors helpneuroscience figureout how the mindworksInsights fromneuroscience feed intomachine intelligenceBiotech and IT advancesmake body and machineconnectableImproving machineintelligenceaccelerates R&D inevery sphere
AI & RoboticsTomorrowFar futureTodayHumanMachineHumanMachineThe information economy willmove into the machine world.
OB1 - optical brain mk1A conscious computerGelOptical ‘hormone’1 trillion neurons in 100ml gel1 billion times more powerful than brain, with up to2 million emotions & unlimited sensesCould be fully sentientCould be benign or maliciousCan be linked to other devices via the netplaybackSensory stimulusNeural interferenceprocessing vortexSensoryechoInternal sensingsensoryencodingneural vortexgenerationNeuralresponse
Smart bacteriacould exist in both real world and cyberspaceCustomDNA1 micronMolecular circuitryassembled by cellBacteria linked together via infrared, to makesophisticated self organising circuits
Terminator scenario?VIf we create smarter-than-man machines, we risk extinction.Even if they are not malign, we may end up in the samebargaining position as ants on a building site.If we can enhance or link human brain to the same level ofintelligence, then such a capability gap will not occur.We need a good brain-machine link before we can safely makesmarter-than-man machines
Care economyValue ofphysical/intellectualworkValue ofcommunity &socialwellbeingtimeMore face to face interaction, needing emotional and ‘human’ skillsThis may favour women and older people. Companies need to adaptto work more closely with the community.
Revaluation of human skillsToday, people often work as smart machinesTomorrow, they will have to focus oninterpersonal skillsInterpersonal skills increase as people age,allowing older people to do useful work,alleviating the pensions problemWe will see higher status for women too
The next wave ofconvergence:Gaia 2.0Make new organisms &EcosystemsAlternative biochemistryNatural world,includingMk 1 humansNBIC enabledorganisms,includingtranshumansCyberspace life,including consciousmachinesBlurredboundary
Panda 2.0Enhance mating desire. Addfertility sensors, GPSlocation and dating sites sothat Pandas can findsuitable mates at the righttimes. Adjust discriminationlevels so that potentialmates are less fussy.
Making other organisms smartBiotechnologyHybrid animal brainsthat contain syntheticprocessing andmemory but exist andcompete in both naturalworld and cyberspaceNanotechnologySmart chimps, dogs,cats, worms?ArtificialIntelligence
sentienceHumanequivalenceE-bay-bies?ComputerSimulationE-birthOptional geneticAssemblyPhysical birthMachine-designedhumansDNA mixdigitalParents can be of any genderconception02005 2020 2040 2050How long will it be before it will be considered irresponsible notto genetically enhance your kids?At what stage of electronic emulation or genetic assembly does achild become legally human?
AI evolution• AIs will have their owncultures and civilisation thatwill cross fertilise with ours• Sims will get much smarter!• Some AIs will migrate fromcyberspace into the real world• Some people might move intocyberspace – retirement orsuicide?• Cyberspace fauna and floraThe Sims, EA Games
Active skin – the body as IT platformEpidermisDermisWearable layerDetachable layerTransfer layerMid-term layerPermanent layerSkinSkin-based electronics can link bloodchemistry and nerve signals toexternal computers and systemsEven thoughtrecognition isstarting toappear nowEmotiv Epoc headsetfor computer games26
Wireless skin capsulesAntenna for comms to external systemsHigher layer deviceHigher layer deviceLED RxComms electronicsAntennaLED RxHigher layer devicecommsDataStorageBattery ProcessingSensorSensorLarge number of capsules linked together, monitoringa range of signals, controlling smart drugs etc
The human body as a data sourceRange of signalsfrom personSignal processorand recorderNatural language processingAI based signal interpretationand deduction of intentData may includeemotional state, nerveactivity, and biomedicaldata such as breathing,noise, movement. Couldbe used with activejewellery.Alarms,remotesupervisionEnhanced output to externalenvironment, people andelectronic systems
Sensory enhancementMagnetic fieldRadiation (EM or nuclear)External sensorsWearable sensorsDetachable sensorsImplanted sensorsMagnetic fieldTemperatureLocationProximitySoundInputChemical ormicrobiological presenceDataPollutantsSensorytranslationunitAlarmsTelemetryMonitorsLogsControlsystemsMessagingOutputAudioVideoHeat or vibrationPain or pleasure
Dream linkingDream state is detected in eachperson and then appropriateimagery and sound created inboth headsets by computer.Ongoing detection of thoughtsand emotions during dreaminfluences choice of material.
How close can you get?2010: Can touch2025: Can link nervous systems2040: Can link brains2050:Can share enhancedconsciousness in machine2060: can share bodies too2075: can merge completely
Post-organic lifeUnder 35s might live foreverAs brain add-ons and IQ,memoryand sensory upgrades account foran ever-increasing proportion of yourmind’s capability and content, deathof the organic body becomes aninconvenience. You may just buy anandroid, upload and carry on.Repliee, Osaka UniversityBy then you may have spawnednumerous replicas. Which are you?
The Medium, 2075-2200A global environment linking togetherall the minds of people andsentient machines in a globalconsciousnessMediumShared consciousness & awarenessShared personalitiesLink nervous systems togetherBody sharingFuzzy boundaries between people
HomohabilisHuman-machine Convergencehomo erectushomo sapienshomo sapiensneanderthalensishomocyberneticushomo sapiens ludditushomooptimushomo hybridushomomachinusrobotusprimusrobotusmultitudinusGaiasapiensSims sapiensBacteria sapiens- 1.5M years - 125,000 yearsToday- 750,000 years - 40,000 years50 years100 years150 years