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Reactions to the Pace of Change

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12 0 0 0Members ReportCOPENHAGENINSTITUTEF O RFUTURESSTUDIES<strong>Reactions</strong> <strong>to</strong><strong>the</strong> <strong>Pace</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Change</strong>Neo-Ritualizing and Third-Degree Reality


Contents<strong>Reactions</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Pace</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Change</strong>- Neo-Ritualizing and Third-Degree RealityThesis 3Idea 3Introduction 4Complexity and Confusion 4Digital <strong>Pace</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Change</strong> 5The Great Confinement 6The Natural Human Being- a Dying Species 8If it doesn’t kill you, it will cure you- and vice versa, <strong>to</strong>o? 8The Fight for Attention 9Au<strong>the</strong>nticity as a Tourist Attraction 9“Tourism” in Anti-modernity 9Adventure Tourism 9Stage Au<strong>the</strong>nticity 10Stage Intimacy 10Wanting What’s Been Lost 11Happiness is What isn’t Availableat any Shopping Mall 12<strong>Reactions</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Pace</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Change</strong> 12- His<strong>to</strong>ry 12- Nature 13- Traditions 13Traditions – a Scarce Benefitin <strong>the</strong> Dynamic Civilization 14Stability as a Tool 14Up-<strong>to</strong>-date Traditions 15Viable and Non-viable Traditions 16Constancy <strong>of</strong> Flexibility 18Emotional Inscrutability 18Constancy <strong>of</strong> Rituals 19Scientific Rituals 19Rituals – <strong>the</strong> World Upside DownRebirthing <strong>the</strong> World 20The difference between weekdaysand holidays 20The Holy Place 20The basic formula for parties andseasonal holidays 20Rites <strong>of</strong> Passage 21Complexity and Risks– <strong>the</strong> Good Ones and <strong>the</strong> Bad Ones 22Illusion preparedness 22Unambiguousness – a scarce benefit 22“Product Revelopment” 23From given <strong>to</strong> calculated risks 24Is everyday life <strong>to</strong>o dull? 24Attractive risks 25The risk gene strikes back 25Fictitious reality and realistic fiction 26The good part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> old and <strong>the</strong>good part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> new 26Annexe 1: Invented Traditions 27Annexe 2: “Risk Society” 28Annexe 3: Judgement Stalled 29Appendix with diagrams 302 R E A C T I O N S T O T H E P A C E O F C H A N G E


Preface<strong>Reactions</strong> <strong>to</strong><strong>the</strong> <strong>Pace</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Change</strong>ThesisAt present we are faced with a high pace <strong>of</strong> change and complexity.If our attitude <strong>to</strong> this was “and that’s <strong>the</strong> way things are,” it would bevery easy. But <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>sis <strong>of</strong> this report is that this is not so. We mustexpect a counterreaction. And it is already starting <strong>to</strong> show.This affects products and companies.When <strong>the</strong> pace <strong>of</strong> change accelerates, <strong>the</strong>re will be counterreactionsin <strong>the</strong> form <strong>of</strong> needs for constants. Things that are what <strong>the</strong>y have alwaysbeen and which may be relied on. Every day <strong>the</strong> media presentnews about things that are not what one would believe, that are notwhat <strong>the</strong>y pretend <strong>to</strong> be. And fur<strong>the</strong>rmore, work is being done <strong>to</strong> alterthis state <strong>of</strong> things. We can define <strong>the</strong> pace <strong>of</strong> change as <strong>the</strong> number<strong>of</strong> changes per time unit. Economic growth in Europe and <strong>the</strong> US –i.e. <strong>the</strong> technical and digital development – indicates an acceleratingpace <strong>of</strong> change.“Complexity” refers basically <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> fact that everything surrounding<strong>the</strong> Western human being is wrapped, developed, or debated. Basically,it is no longer possible <strong>to</strong> get one’s bearings simply by using one’ssenses, or <strong>to</strong> make anything from scratch. Technology has – at <strong>the</strong>same time as it frees us from unwanted trouble, eases information andcommunication, and increases <strong>the</strong> individual’s scope <strong>of</strong> action – also“come between” consumer and goods, workforce and work, companyand cus<strong>to</strong>mer.The futurist John Naisbitt has said that we spend half <strong>of</strong> our timemaking technology and <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r half running away from it! Manymodern people dream <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> simple life in <strong>the</strong> country, and forests aremore <strong>of</strong>ten sought out than <strong>the</strong>atres, libraries and cinemas. And holidaydestinations such as <strong>the</strong> wilderness, mountains and “un<strong>to</strong>uched” natureare areas <strong>of</strong> growth. The counterreaction <strong>to</strong> complexity will, amongo<strong>the</strong>r things, be a search for “indigenousness.” When it comes <strong>to</strong> lowtechnologicalproducts, a growth in <strong>the</strong> market for products signallingorigin and au<strong>the</strong>nticity is <strong>to</strong> be expected. Products that are easy <strong>to</strong>relate <strong>to</strong> as well as <strong>to</strong>ols for experiencing stability and structure.With a little nerve, one could claim that rituals and holidays arescarce benefits because more or less everything goes and is possibleevery day: Food, wine, sexual intercourse, resting, fasting, shopping.There are no fixed schedules for doing this particular thing or thatparticular thing. How we divide up our time is individual and flexible.This reaction means that <strong>the</strong> focus should be on <strong>the</strong> fixed point <strong>of</strong><strong>the</strong>se changes. It is in relation <strong>to</strong> this fixed point that <strong>the</strong> company,<strong>the</strong> member <strong>of</strong> staff and consumer must be flexible.There is a need for mission statements and rituals that pinpoint <strong>the</strong> value,<strong>the</strong> purpose or reality in its extreme consequence. – “Because <strong>the</strong>reit’s more visible,” as <strong>the</strong> artist Asger Jorn has put it!C O P E N H A G E N I N S T I T U T E F O R F U T U R E S S T U D I E SMembers ReportNo. 1, 2000Prepared by <strong>the</strong>Copenhagen Institutefor Futures StudiesIdea and TextSigne AggerbeckCIFS Contribu<strong>to</strong>rsKristina SøgårdRolf JensenAxel OlesenCarsten BeckTroels Theill EriksenMartin StauberThanks <strong>to</strong>Peter EngbergElse Marie K<strong>of</strong>oedThomas MilstedKurt KørnerErik A. NielsenArt direc<strong>to</strong>rOle Gravesenwww.graphicdesign.dkPrintingTegnestuenThe Copenhagen Institutefor Futures StudiesMarch 2000M E M B E R S R E P O R T 1 / 2 0 0 03


IntroductionThe more reflective one’s attitude <strong>to</strong>wards life is,<strong>the</strong> more it seems that values and lifestyles arethings that are up for decision. Life is no longerunambiguous or simple. People can experience<strong>the</strong>mselves as <strong>to</strong>urists between lifestyles, and lifeas something <strong>the</strong>y have <strong>to</strong> form an attitude <strong>to</strong>ra<strong>the</strong>r than participate in naturally.The sociologist Dean MacCannell has claimed thatmodern lifestyle with a high pace <strong>of</strong> change, freedomin relationships and a choice <strong>of</strong> values paves<strong>the</strong> way for “<strong>to</strong>urism as a way <strong>of</strong> life.” Life becomeslike watching oneself on a stage with props andscenery which might have been different – andperhaps should have been. A plot which is notnecessarily as interesting as <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>rs’. Au<strong>the</strong>nticitybecomes an experience – not a way <strong>of</strong> life.“Primitives who live <strong>the</strong>ir lives <strong>to</strong>tally exposed <strong>to</strong><strong>the</strong>ir “relevant o<strong>the</strong>rs” do not suffer from anxietyabout <strong>the</strong> au<strong>the</strong>nticity <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir lives…” ”The oppositeproblem, a weakened sense <strong>of</strong> reality, appears with<strong>the</strong> differentiation <strong>of</strong> society in<strong>to</strong> front and back.Once this division is established, <strong>the</strong>re can be noreturn <strong>to</strong> a state <strong>of</strong> nature. Au<strong>the</strong>ncity itself moves<strong>to</strong> inhabit mystification 1) .The au<strong>the</strong>ntic life becomes an unattainable ideal,which <strong>the</strong> modern human being only dreams about.In fact, we have lost it, but may – ideally – win it back.Complexity and confusionGlobalization as well as information and communicationstechnologies mean that we are confrontedwith events in o<strong>the</strong>r parts <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> world on a dailybasis. Complexes <strong>of</strong> problems we have no possibility<strong>of</strong> making up our minds about or gaining experiencefrom. A large part <strong>of</strong> reality is thus handeddown <strong>to</strong> us by way <strong>of</strong> filters.We could call this phenomenon “illusion preparedness.”What is <strong>the</strong> news on biodiversity in SouthAmerica, <strong>the</strong> hole in <strong>the</strong> ozone layer, gangs in <strong>the</strong>Bronx, or <strong>the</strong> working conditions <strong>of</strong> Finnish doc<strong>to</strong>rs?It would be difficult <strong>to</strong> form an attitude <strong>to</strong> all <strong>the</strong>seproblems if it were not for expert statements andassessments.1) Dean MacCannell, The Tourist: A New Theory <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Leisure Class (1976; University <strong>of</strong> California Press, 1999) pp. 93-1054 R E A C T I O N S T O T H E P A C E O F C H A N G E


There are hundreds <strong>of</strong> processes between consumerand c<strong>of</strong>fee shrub and between <strong>the</strong> live pigand <strong>the</strong> sausage. Even something as relatively lowtechnicalas a ball-point pen is impossible for its user<strong>to</strong> produce. If a pho<strong>to</strong>copying machine breaks downor <strong>the</strong> server is down, we have <strong>to</strong> call a specialist.Specialists install, maintain and replace <strong>the</strong> <strong>to</strong>olswe use every day. In <strong>the</strong> same way, specialists andexperts tell us about <strong>the</strong> state <strong>of</strong> nature, <strong>the</strong> “evil”and “good” <strong>of</strong> war, healthy diets, dangerous foodstuffs,and critical political regimes. We tend <strong>to</strong> be“amateurs” in our own houses.“Product revelopment”The world becomes dull. Everything is “been <strong>the</strong>re,done that,” <strong>the</strong> barriers have been broken down, andmost things are possible. If not in reality, <strong>the</strong>n in virtualreality. And this distinction is already crumbling.In some areas, and for certain segments, <strong>the</strong>principle is “product revelopment.” Making productseasy <strong>to</strong> relate <strong>to</strong>. Products that make you feel comfortable.Glasses blown by mouth, tableware with <strong>the</strong>user’s personal mark, a ball-point pen “<strong>the</strong> colour<strong>of</strong> plastic” (i.e. pastel, <strong>the</strong> colour <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> first plastic)seems more “right,” unspoiled and “original.”The mark <strong>of</strong> origin becomes visible. And it seemssimple.Digital pace <strong>of</strong> changeThe fundamental “laws” governing digitalizationsuch as, for instance, Moore’s Law and Gilder’s Laware defended more vigorously than laws passed inparliaments. According <strong>to</strong> Moore’s Law, a microprocessor’scalculation capacity doubles every 18months while <strong>the</strong> price is halved. At <strong>the</strong> moment,this is ra<strong>the</strong>r true every 12 months. According <strong>to</strong>Gilder’s Law, bandwidth is tripled every 12 months.A consequence <strong>of</strong> this development is <strong>the</strong> possibility<strong>of</strong> communication irrespective <strong>of</strong> time and place.Today, e-mails and video conferences almost makethis possible, but in a few years from now it will probablyalso be possible for many companies and citizensusing virtual-reality equipment and <strong>the</strong> like,<strong>to</strong> create a feeling <strong>of</strong> almost being present at <strong>the</strong>meeting in Tokyo or almost being on a beach inPolynesia. Our five senses are digitalized or in <strong>the</strong>process <strong>of</strong> becoming so. Visual sensations and soundmay almost unproblematically be transferred digitally.When it comes <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> sense <strong>of</strong> <strong>to</strong>uch, “gloves” arebeing made (at <strong>the</strong> MIT Media Labora<strong>to</strong>ry, amongo<strong>the</strong>r places) which make it possible <strong>to</strong> feel somethingthat is half-way around <strong>the</strong> world.Scent can be transferred digitally (www.digiscents.com),and so can taste. Even intuition is being digitalized.Recently an Israeli s<strong>of</strong>tware programme(http://bschool.huji.ac.il/templates/) was placedwell in a competition about who could make <strong>the</strong>best advertising concepts. When <strong>the</strong>se technologiesare integrated and probably become more or lessavailable on <strong>the</strong> Internet, <strong>the</strong> world is literally at ourfingertips. And not just <strong>the</strong> present physical worldbut also <strong>the</strong> possibility <strong>of</strong> travelling in time and place.The pace <strong>of</strong> change is supported by <strong>the</strong> continuouseconomic growth. 2)Freeing ourselves from traditional human and physicallimitations may now be overcome on apparentlylarger scales than ever. From this point <strong>of</strong> view, ahuman life without digital props seems ra<strong>the</strong>r limited.<strong>Reactions</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> pace <strong>of</strong> changeThis report takes a shot at pinpointing what happenswhen <strong>the</strong> pace <strong>of</strong> change is high. The first part takesits starting point in <strong>the</strong> changes caused by urbanizationand high-speed technological change, such as<strong>the</strong> longing for what is genuine. The second partcontinues this complex <strong>of</strong> problems, examininghow technology makes <strong>the</strong> natural human beingin<strong>to</strong> a dying species. Both what is natural and whatis genuine is something we may only glimpse, forinstance as <strong>to</strong>urists. A kind <strong>of</strong> leitmotif is – as <strong>the</strong>headline for part three reads – “Wanting What’sBeen Lost.” The report goes on <strong>to</strong> describe variousways in which that which has been lost is attemptedregained in modern society. In part four, his<strong>to</strong>ry,nature and traditions are suggested as ways in whichoriginality can be preserved in modernity. Traditionsare also <strong>the</strong> subject <strong>of</strong> part five in which <strong>the</strong> messagereads that traditions can been viewed as a <strong>to</strong>ol forcreating stability in <strong>the</strong> dynamic civilization in whichwe live. Part six elaborates on this dynamic, whichis about constancy for flexibility because flexibility– despite its many qualities – makes it difficult <strong>to</strong>maintain one’s identity. Finally, in part seven, <strong>the</strong>report explains how rituals can stage and functionas a focus in <strong>the</strong> complex society. In conclusion,<strong>the</strong> report provides examples <strong>of</strong> how <strong>the</strong> consumerseeks confrontation with <strong>the</strong> risks inherent in complexity.C O P E N H A G E N I N S T I T U T E F O R F U T U R E S S T U D I E S2) Please refer <strong>to</strong> Appendix with diagrams, Diagram 4M E M B E R S R E P O R T 1 / 2 0 0 05


The Great Confinement1500-1840HorsesSailing-boats1850-1930The steam engineAfter having worked with urbanization and developmen<strong>to</strong>f pace in <strong>the</strong> fields <strong>of</strong> transportation and telecommunicationfor many years, <strong>the</strong> French urbanplanner Paul Virilio predicts that we are about <strong>to</strong>experience a heavy loss.The loss <strong>of</strong> our bodies, <strong>of</strong> local space, <strong>of</strong> distances,and <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> sensation <strong>of</strong> nature’s immensity. Our mentalpicture <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> world will be reduced when we cantravel halfway around <strong>the</strong> world in 14 hours. Withsupersonic aircrafts, it will take even less time. Thethreat is <strong>the</strong> great confinement: <strong>the</strong> globe in miniatureinside one’s head…and having it constantly overflown.The original dimension is raped and ruins <strong>the</strong> “planetaryhuman being,” who mentally loses <strong>the</strong> earth. 3)Boeing is carrying out research in <strong>the</strong> future concep<strong>to</strong>f “High Speed Civil Transport” – an aeroplanethat will be capable <strong>of</strong> transporting 300 passengersat Mach 2.4, i.e. around 3,000 kilometres per hour.Such an aeroplane will be able <strong>to</strong> fly from CopenhagenAirport <strong>to</strong>, for instance, Casablanca or Cairoin one hour. The flying time <strong>to</strong> Arlanda Airport orGardermoen, for instance, would be roughly 12minutes. According <strong>to</strong> Boeing (www.boeing.com) <strong>the</strong>number <strong>of</strong> flown personal kilometres has doubledworld-wide during <strong>the</strong> course <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> latest 15 years.Boeing’s current 20-year prognosis predicts a 4.7 %annual growth in passenger flights based on an assumedannual global economic growth rate <strong>of</strong> 2.8 %.This will cause air traffic <strong>to</strong> be doubled once againin 15 years’ time. 4)1950sPropeller-driven aircrafts1960sJet planesThe World is Shrinking● 39 %, i.e. 150 million people, <strong>of</strong> WesternEurope’s population <strong>of</strong> 388 million, own mobilephones (more than 50 % <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Danish populationown mobile phones). 850 million peoplehave permanent Internet connections.● Many people predict that as early as 2003,<strong>the</strong>re will be more mobile Internet connections(mobile terminals with far greater capacity than<strong>the</strong> largest mobile phones <strong>to</strong>day) than stationary(PC, television, etc.).● Mobile terminals with SIM-cards can beused as navigational instruments, and it will bepossible <strong>to</strong> place <strong>the</strong> carrier with <strong>the</strong> accuracy<strong>of</strong> 10 metres. It will be impossible <strong>to</strong> hide orbe out <strong>of</strong> reach as long as one is online.According <strong>to</strong> Virilio, <strong>the</strong> technological connectionswhich provide telepresence are working quietly <strong>to</strong>make us definitively lose our own bodies in favour<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> virtual body: The ghost appearing in <strong>the</strong>“TV-pane.”Reality shrinks, virtual reality grows. The consequencewill be that physical presence disappears in favour<strong>of</strong> an immaterial and ghost-like presence. In reality,we love distance, <strong>to</strong> be able <strong>to</strong> move on quickly,but what we seek at a distance should appear <strong>to</strong> bepresent and genuine!“Implementing absolute speed…shuts us inside <strong>the</strong>world…we will soon feel confined…I believe thattechnologies are causing us <strong>to</strong> lose our own bodiesin favour <strong>of</strong> a ghost-like body, and our own worldsin favour <strong>of</strong> a virtual world.” 5)Telepresence delocalizes <strong>the</strong> body’s position. On<strong>the</strong> Internet, our experiences are <strong>the</strong> same independently<strong>of</strong> where we live, who we are with, andwhe<strong>the</strong>r we are in good or bad shape. Virtual realitynegates <strong>the</strong> unity <strong>of</strong> here and now: Here is cancelledout in favour <strong>of</strong> a global, virtual now.Letting oneself be formed in youth by travellingand experiencing alternatives <strong>to</strong> localculture will become different. Much is alreadyknown <strong>to</strong> us, cultural differences willmore <strong>of</strong>ten tend <strong>to</strong> be religious attitudes,or viewpoints, ra<strong>the</strong>r than local culturalgeographicdifferences.3) Paul Virilio, Cybermonde, la politique du pire: entretien avec Philippe Petit (Paris: Editions Textuel, 1996).The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies’ translation.4) See <strong>the</strong> diagram “Number <strong>of</strong> flight passengers,” Appendix with diagrams, Diagram 25) Paul Virilio, Cybermonde, la politique du pire: entretien avec Philippe Petit (Paris: Editions Textuel, 1996).The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies’ translation.R E A C T I O N S T O T H E P A C E O F C H A N G E


1086420BillionsWorld UrbanizationUrban populationRural population1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030Source: World Development Indications, 1999Unlike prisoners, people are not confined in cages,but confined because <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> speed <strong>of</strong> digital presenceand <strong>the</strong> superfluity <strong>of</strong> any physical movement.80 % <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> French population live on 20 % <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>area. In 1997, 85 % <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Danes lived in <strong>to</strong>wns, 77 %<strong>of</strong> all Europeans live in urban areas. The concentrationis increasing. The economist blames <strong>the</strong> increase inwelfare, which many people connect with <strong>to</strong>wns.Virilio finds <strong>the</strong> reason <strong>to</strong> be that people are attracted<strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> possibilities <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>to</strong>wn and <strong>the</strong>refore also<strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> virtual <strong>to</strong>wn, <strong>the</strong> <strong>to</strong>wn <strong>of</strong> telecommunicationsand <strong>the</strong> Internet. The <strong>to</strong>wn is on <strong>the</strong> verge <strong>of</strong> implosion.At <strong>the</strong> same time, households are becomingsmaller. In 1991 <strong>the</strong> average household in Denmarkconsisted <strong>of</strong> 2.2 persons, and in all <strong>of</strong> Europe, 2.6 6)Physical communities – living <strong>to</strong>ge<strong>the</strong>r, shoppingat <strong>the</strong> same places, performing <strong>the</strong> same tasks – aredisappearing. The exchangeable, regularly chosen,as well as <strong>the</strong> “absent” communities – those onebelongs <strong>to</strong> as multimedia subscriber and consumer– are growing.Virilio thinks that after having achieved real time(<strong>the</strong> presence <strong>of</strong> all events adjusted and in virtualreach <strong>of</strong> each o<strong>the</strong>r, i.e. when all time on earth maybe synchronized) we run in<strong>to</strong> a barrier. From thispoint, we will no longer be able <strong>to</strong> accelerate. And<strong>the</strong>n we will have <strong>to</strong> return <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> spatial <strong>to</strong>wns and<strong>to</strong> physical presence.According <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> Danish scientific journalist TorNørretranders, digitalization means that absencebecomes widespread and cheap <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> degree thatreal analogous presence will rank as something special7) Seeing <strong>the</strong> actual person or <strong>the</strong> musical instrumentplaying, sensing <strong>the</strong> smell <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> salespersonone speaks with.Demand for what happens only onceand right here!The catch in connection with digital presence is thatalthough one slowly closes in on it, one will neverreach it. It is not <strong>the</strong>re!The loss <strong>of</strong> being <strong>the</strong>re is already showing: On<strong>the</strong>ir dream holidays, people seek out beaches andjungles void <strong>of</strong> technology, unity <strong>of</strong> time and place,and <strong>the</strong> presence <strong>of</strong> those that <strong>the</strong>y, by <strong>the</strong> way,are spending <strong>the</strong>ir lives with!76 % <strong>of</strong> interviewed Danes respond that “havingtime for each o<strong>the</strong>r (children, family, friends)” is avery important incentive for <strong>the</strong>ir holiday.When <strong>the</strong> physical world <strong>of</strong> a<strong>to</strong>ms is known and overrun,<strong>the</strong>re will probably be an increasing demandfor o<strong>the</strong>r dimensions <strong>to</strong> travel and have first-timeexperiences in.This could be in <strong>the</strong> form <strong>of</strong>• Inwardly – soul trips, dream worlds, own his<strong>to</strong>ry,childhood extension, and crossing psycho-<strong>the</strong>rapeuticdemarcation lines. You test your own DNA,guess its structure.• Virtual reality – computer games, HoloDeckworlds. Perhaps <strong>the</strong> computer-generated superintelligencewill be able <strong>to</strong> create worlds that willsurprise and fascinate us at <strong>the</strong> same time.According <strong>to</strong> http://www.hedweb.com/nickb/superintelligence.htm, computer intelligencewill exceed human intelligence in ca. 2005.In 2010, computer intelligence will be 10 timesthat <strong>of</strong> human intelligence.• Fantastic fairy tales in all shapes and forms.Imagine that you board a ferry from 1930 and sail<strong>to</strong> an island where everything takes place as itdid back <strong>the</strong>n. The <strong>to</strong>wn on <strong>the</strong> island is Darrowbyand <strong>the</strong> day ends with a pint at <strong>the</strong> Drovers’ Arms.• Secret, non-traceable worlds where real-timeexperience is all <strong>the</strong>re is. No films, no securityguards, no extras.• Renewable experiences: Constant places, interests,products with ever-new experiences speciallytailored for precisely this day, new scientificinventions, new experiments. An immediateexample is <strong>the</strong> delivery <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> season’s vegetables.You always receive <strong>the</strong> same amount at <strong>the</strong> sameprice, but <strong>the</strong> content varies. Theme days andweeks.6) Eurostat Yearbook 19977) Article entitled “Nærvær fås ikke på computer” [Computers Provide no Presence] in Danish newspaper Berlingske Tidende,December 18, 1999C O P E N H A G E N I N S T I T U T E F O R F U T U R E S S T U D I E SM E M B E R S R E P O R T 1 / 2 0 0 07


The Natural Human Being– a Dying SpeciesVirilio visualizes an invalidation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> human beingwhen nanotechnology can support a person’s memoryusing minicomputers, genetic improvements andcapacity pros<strong>the</strong>ses. “Technology colonizes <strong>the</strong> body<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> human being as it has colonized that <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>earth. Mo<strong>to</strong>rways, railways, and flight paths havecolonized <strong>the</strong> terri<strong>to</strong>rial body by organizing it. Onlynow, <strong>the</strong> human body is being threatened by micromachines…Technologywill reduce all living matter’sabilities by pretending <strong>to</strong> complement and assist<strong>the</strong>m.” 8) Virilio calls this “<strong>the</strong> pros<strong>the</strong>sis humanbeing.”Correspondingly, <strong>the</strong> British futurist IanPearson from British Telecom thinks that in50 years’ time we will no longer be humanbeings. Our genetic material will long be outdatedsimply because <strong>the</strong> fittest, as always,will survive, and <strong>the</strong> fittest will be those whohave replaced traditional human “equipment”with biotechnological medicinal and digitalequipment.This technical support will in much better ways than<strong>to</strong>day remove unwanted consequences <strong>of</strong> “havinglived” such as symp<strong>to</strong>ms <strong>of</strong> ageing, unwanted fat,and illnesses.Medicine can already penetrate DNA and interactwith <strong>the</strong> body’s circulation and will be able <strong>to</strong> do so<strong>to</strong> an even higher degree. 9) Biotechnology and medicinecan reinforce normal processes and will be usedby people who by <strong>to</strong>day’s standards would pass ashealthy.Physical and psychological abilities will becomea commodity which makes our surrounding “reality”a very variable quantity. Au<strong>the</strong>ntic breasts and unmanipulatedgood moods will only sporadically bewhat makes up reality.Considering that computer intelligence in <strong>the</strong>future will exceed human intelligence, and that we,<strong>to</strong> an increasing degree, will be able <strong>to</strong> manipulate<strong>the</strong> abilities <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> human being, <strong>the</strong>re is hardy anydoubt that we will occupy ourselves with brain-buildingand mind-building as well as body-building.We will “work out” in order <strong>to</strong> be able <strong>to</strong> make it in<strong>the</strong> future, and it might even be acceptable <strong>to</strong> takeadvantage <strong>of</strong> various kinds <strong>of</strong> “steroids” <strong>to</strong> improveour intelligence or capacity. A direct interconnectionwith computer power is an obvious possibility. All inall, <strong>the</strong>re are many things that point <strong>to</strong> our presentperception <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> human as being something uniquebeing somewhat strained in <strong>the</strong> future. The geneticdifference between a human being and a chimpanzeeis less than two %, which is less than <strong>the</strong> differencebetween a horse and a zebra.If it doesn’t kill you, it will cure you- and vice versa, <strong>to</strong>o?It is suspiciously easy <strong>to</strong> avoid radical, extreme situations,taxing on one’s strength, or working oneself<strong>to</strong> death. Our attitude <strong>to</strong>wards life is not in <strong>the</strong>balance. This means that we only really know ourselvesand our work superficially. The sociologistRichard Sennett calls this “opaqueness.” “Whenthings are made easier for us…we become weak.Our relationship <strong>to</strong> work becomes superficial becausewe lack an understanding <strong>of</strong> what we are doing.” 10)When all we know about ourselves is <strong>the</strong> immediate,<strong>the</strong> easy and <strong>the</strong> comfortable, it may not be enough!Sennett’s example is discontinuous work, where <strong>the</strong>processes involve prerequisites and consequenceswhich we have no previous experience with. If <strong>the</strong>level at which we work is <strong>to</strong>o superficial and discontinuous,it becomes boring and anonymous.Sennett’s <strong>the</strong>sis is supported by <strong>the</strong> increasingdemand for psychologists. In Denmark alone, <strong>the</strong>number <strong>of</strong> psychologists in private practice has grownenormously over <strong>the</strong> latest decades, and from 1997<strong>to</strong> 1999 <strong>the</strong> number has doubled <strong>to</strong> almost 700.8) Paul Virilio, Cybermonde, la politique du pire: entretien avec Philippe Petit (Paris: Editions Textuel, 1996).The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies’ translation.9) M.Sc., pharmacology, Ph.D. student Claus Møldrup, Den medicinerede normalitet [Medically-Induced Normality](Copenhagen: Gyldendal, 1999)10) Sennett, Richard, The Corrosion <strong>of</strong> Character: The Personal Consequences <strong>of</strong> Work in <strong>the</strong> New Capitalism(New York: Nor<strong>to</strong>n, 1998)8 R E A C T I O N S T O T H E P A C E O F C H A N G E


Seeing <strong>the</strong> foundationNobel Prize winner Sir Harald Kro<strong>to</strong>, who is a travellinglecturer on <strong>the</strong> crisis <strong>of</strong> science, complains thatwe no longer find <strong>the</strong> world interesting. We no longerspend time trying <strong>to</strong> grasp <strong>the</strong> wonders <strong>of</strong> technology.As <strong>the</strong> foundation <strong>of</strong> an ordinary weekday,we depend on many technological developments,<strong>the</strong> elements and functions <strong>of</strong> which we do not know,such as phones, artificial fibres <strong>of</strong> raincoats, and <strong>the</strong>mechanics <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> ball-point pen. Life has becomeso comfortable that we find it dull! In his opinion,schoolchildren should be forced <strong>to</strong> live one week,or a single day, in <strong>the</strong> 12th century, or in <strong>the</strong> 19thcentury, in order <strong>to</strong> realize what technology hasachieved. “Understanding scientific language is likereading one <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> world’s great authors,” statesKro<strong>to</strong>.The fight for attentionThe price <strong>of</strong> digital cameras, and digital technologyas such, will drop so low that in <strong>the</strong> future it will bevery easy for amateurs, con artists and unwantedsalespersons <strong>to</strong> produce virtual or filmic productswhich resemble genuine products. President <strong>of</strong> CBSRobert Wussler estimated that in 10 years’ time <strong>the</strong>remight be millions <strong>of</strong> film producers and channels.Every day will be a constant fight for everybody’sattention, and it is possible that this will result in adisgust with <strong>the</strong> media. Some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> weapons willbe interactive TV shows. Watching TV all day longis boring – because it is one-way communication.Those who are children <strong>to</strong>day will want <strong>to</strong> create TVand be creative on <strong>the</strong> computer. Passive feeding willcreate disgust. Viewers will want <strong>to</strong> be co-crea<strong>to</strong>rsand ac<strong>to</strong>rs. And soon this will be possible. Wusslerimagines <strong>the</strong> number <strong>of</strong> TV channels <strong>to</strong> be closer <strong>to</strong>five million than 500 in 10 years from now.Lecturer in Psychology at Aarhus University,Thomas Nielsen, links <strong>the</strong> phenomenon <strong>of</strong> growingdemand for active participation <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> need <strong>of</strong> individualattention. “The TV media is <strong>the</strong> candy-floss <strong>of</strong>fame. It is <strong>the</strong> easy road <strong>to</strong> fame because seeminglyyou do not have <strong>to</strong> work very hard. You can becomea TV host…present <strong>to</strong>morrow’s wea<strong>the</strong>r… Participationin <strong>the</strong> Robinson expedition [Danish TV show]and o<strong>the</strong>r island shows might be looked at as <strong>the</strong>bot<strong>to</strong>m line <strong>of</strong> fame. Here it is possible <strong>to</strong> becomefamous just sitting around picking your <strong>to</strong>es andgoing hungry for a day or two on a deserted island”…“nobody can s<strong>to</strong>p us from thinking that we are eachand every one <strong>of</strong> us great people who deserve <strong>to</strong>be famous and looked up <strong>to</strong> by o<strong>the</strong>rs. We becomemore and more self-centred because nobody isholding us back.” 11)Au<strong>the</strong>nticity as a <strong>to</strong>urist attraction“Tourism” in anti-modernity:Urbanization, <strong>the</strong> accelerating pace <strong>of</strong> change, andindividual freedom have caused a continued growthin <strong>the</strong> entertainment value <strong>of</strong>, and <strong>the</strong> romanticismsurrounding, <strong>the</strong> contrasts <strong>to</strong> modern benefits:Romanticism surrounds that which is au<strong>the</strong>ntic,original, un<strong>to</strong>uched and old. That which cannot bereproduced.Nei<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong> Greeks nor <strong>the</strong> Romans had any idea<strong>of</strong> progress. All progress equalled decline: It beganwith <strong>the</strong> golden age (Paradise) by way <strong>of</strong> Silver andBronze <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> ultimately horrid Iron Age. That view<strong>of</strong> his<strong>to</strong>ry is ubiqui<strong>to</strong>us <strong>to</strong>day. If human beings havea tendency <strong>to</strong> idealize <strong>the</strong> time when <strong>the</strong>y wereyoung and happy, or simply invent <strong>the</strong> present as<strong>the</strong> cause <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir disillusionment, <strong>the</strong>re is alwaysgoing <strong>to</strong> be a market for o<strong>the</strong>r times. Maybe inparticular <strong>the</strong> past. (Because we may be absolutelycertain that it is not going <strong>to</strong> come back, and <strong>the</strong>reforeit does not demand that we do anything o<strong>the</strong>rthan dream).Souvenirs and lampshades from a different placeor ano<strong>the</strong>r time may be as ugly as <strong>the</strong>y please, but<strong>the</strong>y remind us <strong>of</strong> experiences we once had.Not only time – place can also signalgood things such as1. A different world with greener grass2. A glimpse <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> unknownApples from a particular region are special because<strong>the</strong>y taste <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir origin. The origin <strong>of</strong> place is anidentity fac<strong>to</strong>r which we can sense!Adventure <strong>to</strong>urismThe sociologist Dean MacCannell has claimed that<strong>to</strong>urism is <strong>the</strong> modern human being’s answer <strong>to</strong> pilgrimage.12) Modern human beings transport <strong>the</strong>mselvesaround <strong>the</strong> world seeking au<strong>the</strong>nticity. Beinga <strong>to</strong>urist is partly about seeing something new, partlyabout “uncovering” something different and gettingit. We seek life outside ourselves, among o<strong>the</strong>r reasonsbecause we want <strong>to</strong> expand our frame <strong>of</strong> referenceand our world. Uniformity bores most peopleafter a while, think <strong>of</strong> breaks in school every 45minutes, crises in even <strong>the</strong> best marriages and mostpeople’s need <strong>to</strong> change or upgrade jobs at certainintervals. As a survival strategy, <strong>the</strong> point <strong>of</strong> acquiringas many experiences as possible is that <strong>the</strong>y arm onebetter against future experiences – <strong>the</strong>re is simplya better chance <strong>of</strong> having tried something similarwhen one has “practised.”C O P E N H A G E N I N S T I T U T E F O R F U T U R E S S T U D I E S11) Danish weekly Søndagsavisen, Oc<strong>to</strong>ber 199912) Dean MacCannell, The Tourist: A New Theory <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Leisure Class (1976; University <strong>of</strong> California Press, 1999)M E M B E R S R E P O R T 1 / 2 0 0 09


Stage au<strong>the</strong>nticityBeing a <strong>to</strong>urist may be likened <strong>to</strong> contemplating astage. Just as we go <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>atre expecting <strong>to</strong>experience something, we are surrounded by <strong>the</strong><strong>to</strong>urism industry while travelling: Hotels, guides,brochures, prearranged bus <strong>to</strong>urs etc. In our everydaylives we are surrounded by polite phrases,strategies and surfaces that shy away from conflicts.The most convincing experience for a full-blooded<strong>to</strong>urist is <strong>the</strong> feeling <strong>of</strong> having moved fur<strong>the</strong>r back onstage, perhaps even behind <strong>the</strong> scenery: The meetingwith a native who did not sell anything, who did notspeak English – a genuine Italian winegrower, a realchild <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> streets, or a shy Muslim woman. The nonstagedscene where <strong>the</strong> staging is forgotten and where<strong>the</strong> attraction appears <strong>to</strong> be unaffected, natural andindigenous.Wine, cognac, whisky, cheese – foodstuffs inEurope and <strong>the</strong> US in general – which are presentedby a blushing local worker show <strong>the</strong> same au<strong>the</strong>ntic“credibility.”In actual <strong>to</strong>urism, package holidays are still <strong>the</strong>most common. However, it is interesting that during<strong>the</strong> 90s we began <strong>to</strong> express new motives for travelling.Whereas interviewed Danish travellers in 1987responded “relaxation” (66 %) and “doing absolutelynothing” (33 %), in 1997, a new category <strong>of</strong> motivationfor travelling appeared: “Experiencing a completelydifferent way <strong>of</strong> life” (57 %) and “visitingunspoiled places” (40 %). 13)Stage intimacyThis is also <strong>the</strong> case in restaurants. We are intimatewith <strong>the</strong> reality <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> restaurant – staged as undisguisedreality – when we go with <strong>the</strong> cook in order<strong>to</strong> choose our fish, when <strong>the</strong> waiter explains where<strong>the</strong> wine is bought in France and imparts <strong>to</strong> us hispersonal preference on <strong>the</strong> menu, which we, as his“friends,” may benefit from, <strong>to</strong>o.This creates a demand for:Credibility and au<strong>the</strong>nticity• Personal counselling such as service, staff thattake <strong>the</strong>ir time and are interested in answeringquestions.• Marks <strong>of</strong> local origin and explanations <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>positive differences.• Help in decoding specialities.• One-<strong>of</strong>fs, hand-held cameras in all lines <strong>of</strong>businesses.• Signalling origin: The virtual s<strong>to</strong>rewww.aarstiderne.com delivers vegetables at yourdoor. Every box <strong>of</strong> deliveries is season-dependent,<strong>the</strong> vegetables are described, as is <strong>the</strong> method <strong>of</strong>cultivation, <strong>the</strong> environment, <strong>the</strong> preparation time<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> bread etc. The mission behind Aarstiderne[The Seasons] becomes an exciting acquaintancefor a cus<strong>to</strong>mer, who also saves time and is given<strong>the</strong> opportunity <strong>to</strong> try new food.• Visible background variables: In sports this wouldbe ei<strong>the</strong>r completely EPO-free competitions orcompetitions with <strong>the</strong> well-known backgroundvariables: Each competi<strong>to</strong>r’s haema<strong>to</strong>crit, pulseetc. are available, and <strong>the</strong>ir performance is comparedwith <strong>the</strong> amount <strong>of</strong> dope involved. 14) Inretailing and provisions: Declarations describingall (relevant or interesting) product ingredients,all involved technologies, and <strong>the</strong> working environment.Cameras set up in <strong>the</strong> various parts <strong>of</strong>production. Take an ice cream, for example:The ingredients being mixed, <strong>the</strong> plump and happystaff, and <strong>the</strong> island <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> vanilla flower etc.• Participation: Anne Mette Olesen’s farm eggswhich are worth 4 DKK [£ 00.30] more thanordinary eggs bought at <strong>the</strong> s<strong>to</strong>re because <strong>the</strong>cus<strong>to</strong>mer has <strong>to</strong> collect <strong>the</strong> eggs in <strong>the</strong> nes<strong>the</strong>rself.The ecological wave in <strong>the</strong> beginning <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> 1990sgave us – apart from <strong>the</strong> absence <strong>of</strong> fertilizers andapart from being – in principle if not in actual practice– more environmentally and animal friendly – a knowledge<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> background variables which make foodstuffsinteresting. Suddenly every product was enrichedwith a s<strong>to</strong>ry. There were values <strong>to</strong> consider and<strong>the</strong> consumer had a feeling <strong>of</strong> shopping in morethan one sense – <strong>of</strong> being able <strong>to</strong> affect things andmake a difference. This product characteristic canbe transferred <strong>to</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r groups.13) Analysis <strong>of</strong> Danish Travelling 1998, Danish Tourist Board, June 199814) This has actually been proposed by, among o<strong>the</strong>rs, M.Sc., pharmacology, Claus Møldrup, The Royal Danish School <strong>of</strong> Pharmacy,author <strong>of</strong> Den medicinerede normalitet [Medically-Induced Normality] (Copenhagen: Gyldendal, 1999)10 R E A C T I O N S T O T H E P A C E O F C H A N G E


Wanting What’s Been LostWhen something becomes easy we tend <strong>to</strong> lose interestin it and be less fascinated by it. The feeling <strong>of</strong> everythingbeing “been <strong>the</strong>re, done that” devaluates experiences.Ordinary events become banal and welong for discovering something on our own, forrediscovering something as being big, somethingwhich makes a difference. We will begin <strong>to</strong> long <strong>to</strong>move beyond what is ordinary and banal.What everybody can obtain becomes banal.Consumption rises and interest drops.In cultural his<strong>to</strong>ry, <strong>the</strong>re are plenty <strong>of</strong> examples <strong>of</strong>how we always start dreaming about that which isnot at hand. The desirable is that which is rare, and<strong>the</strong> fact that something is threatened makes it attractiveand worth preserving.In Western societies with material excess, youngpeople suffer from eating disorders, architects prescribeminimalism and <strong>the</strong> number <strong>of</strong> holidays <strong>to</strong>deserts, monasteries and Iron Age centres haveincreased relatively.Padding and material abundance provoke counterreactions:One example is that <strong>the</strong> Danish socialsafety net has never before been so well structuredand many-jointed: Hospitals, maternity and paternityleave, maintenance, welfare, counselling etc. Privately,we may insure ourselves against everything from<strong>the</strong>ft <strong>to</strong> weak wrists. But never before have so manypeople played high-risk sports and suchlike. Artistsand commercial interests work full time <strong>to</strong> cross <strong>the</strong>final taboo that could affect us just <strong>the</strong> tiniest bit, suchas exhibiting stuffed puppies, butchered pigs in glasscases, or AIDS victims, robbers and murderers wearingBenet<strong>to</strong>n garments on 20 X 25 metre posters inTimes Square.Young and old, same sex or not, can marry, divorce,have children or not. Moral prejudice and authoritiesregarding what one ought <strong>to</strong> and ought not <strong>to</strong> do areon <strong>the</strong> decline. And it is in this development that wecan trace a search for more traditional patterns, forcultivating tradition – at least at <strong>the</strong> level <strong>of</strong> experience:Old-fashioned weddings, home-cooked food,and political correctness. Destiny is something wedefine ourselves, but in <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>atre we still find itmoving <strong>to</strong> experience two people in love, unable <strong>to</strong>follow <strong>the</strong>ir hearts.With <strong>the</strong> increase <strong>of</strong> urbanization, nature becomesa still more attractive holiday destination. 80 % <strong>of</strong>Scandinavians respond that “enjoying nature” is animportant incentive for travelling. 15)Parallel <strong>to</strong> industrialization, a solution was found <strong>to</strong><strong>the</strong> problems caused by <strong>the</strong> population density in<strong>to</strong>wns – catastrophic firebombs, illnesses, verminand terrible living conditions – namely, incorporatingnature in<strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>to</strong>wns in <strong>the</strong> form <strong>of</strong> parks. (Lifein <strong>the</strong> country was presumably worse, however,<strong>the</strong> benefits <strong>of</strong> country living were badly needed).The sociologist Anthony Giddens argues that regionalismand religious and ethnic fundamentalism areproducts <strong>of</strong> globalization. When everything is apparentlygeared <strong>to</strong>wards globalization, regionalismand fundamentalism appear as counterreactions. 16)Thus, globalization results in re-ritualization. In <strong>the</strong>24-hour society <strong>of</strong> convenience s<strong>to</strong>res, flexible workinghours and opening hours <strong>of</strong> day-care centres,and constant life on <strong>the</strong> Internet, florists, fishmongersand gift shops experience a new enthusiasm forchoosing positively <strong>to</strong> celebrate traditional holidays.In Denmark in <strong>the</strong> year 2000, florists expect <strong>to</strong>sell as many flowers on St. Valentine’s Days ason <strong>the</strong> old favourite, Mo<strong>the</strong>r’s Day, althoughSt. Valentine’s Day was only instituted as atradition by <strong>the</strong> florist business in 1995, andMo<strong>the</strong>r’s Day has been around for more than70 years. 17)During Whitsun in 1999, <strong>the</strong> Danish fishingindustry re-launched an old tradition in an attempt<strong>to</strong> renew our interest in eating fish. The fishing businesscame up with <strong>the</strong>ir own Whitsun Package dealwhich caught 70 % <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Danish people’s attentionand resulted in a definite, periodical increase in turnovers.18)Protestant families now find it amusing <strong>to</strong> walkaround <strong>the</strong> churchyard holding lighted candles onHalloween, despite <strong>the</strong>ir dead being buried in o<strong>the</strong>rparts <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> country and <strong>the</strong>ir own disbelief in eternallife and resurrection.Diagram <strong>of</strong> how <strong>the</strong> future<strong>to</strong>wn – <strong>the</strong> Garden City –incorporates <strong>the</strong> good from<strong>the</strong> country in<strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> goodfrom <strong>to</strong>wns in Sir EbenezerHoward’s Tomorrow(London, 1898)C O P E N H A G E N I N S T I T U T E F O R F U T U R E S S T U D I E S15) Analysis <strong>of</strong> Danish Travelling 1998, Danish Tourist Board, June 199816) Anthony Giddens, Runaway World: How Globalisation is Reshaping Our Lives (New York: Routledge, 2000)17) Mo<strong>the</strong>r’s Day was instituted as a national holiday in <strong>the</strong> US in 1914 by President Wilson. It was instituted in Denmark in 1929.Originally, this day had a social purpose ins<strong>of</strong>ar as <strong>the</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>its from <strong>the</strong> sales <strong>of</strong> flowers were <strong>to</strong> go <strong>to</strong> poor and single mo<strong>the</strong>rs.This was soon forgotten, but perhaps <strong>the</strong> principle should be reinstated in order <strong>to</strong> take <strong>the</strong> sting out <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> criticism <strong>of</strong> commercialization?In Denmark <strong>the</strong> day is celebrated on <strong>the</strong> second Sunday <strong>of</strong> May, in Sweden on February 9, in Norway on <strong>the</strong> last Sunday <strong>of</strong> May,and in England on Mid-Lent Sunday.18) Press statement from <strong>the</strong> fishing industry issued in June 1999 and Detailfiskehandleren [a fishmongers’ newsletter] No. 6, December 1999.M E M B E R S R E P O R T 1 / 2 0 0 011


“Happiness is What isn’t Availableat any Shopping Mall”A decrease in <strong>the</strong> demand for heating, anti-depressants,liver operations, or cold counters is hardly <strong>to</strong>be expected. But <strong>the</strong> demand for <strong>the</strong> natural, <strong>the</strong>indigenous and, above everything else, for alternativeoptions will increase.The number <strong>of</strong> health food s<strong>to</strong>res has increased since<strong>the</strong> 60s, <strong>the</strong> number <strong>of</strong> societies for <strong>the</strong> conservation<strong>of</strong> nature has increased, 19) young medical studentsdemand alternatives <strong>to</strong> chemical medicine, and <strong>the</strong>sales <strong>of</strong> ecological goods are stable. Since 1988, <strong>the</strong>number <strong>of</strong> ecological farms in Denmark has increasedfrom 219 <strong>to</strong> 3300 in 1999, in 1999 <strong>the</strong> production <strong>of</strong>ecological milk was 393 million kilos as opposed <strong>to</strong>39 million kilos in 1993, and <strong>the</strong> s<strong>to</strong>ck <strong>of</strong> ecologicalhens has risen proportionally from 11,693 in 1989<strong>to</strong> 495,497 in 1998. 20)In The Dream Society, Rolf Jensen describes howour need for having goods <strong>to</strong>ld and staged should beintensified and connected with <strong>the</strong> experience <strong>of</strong>au<strong>the</strong>nticity, rawness, ecology etc. 21) The importantaspect is here <strong>to</strong> get <strong>the</strong> feeling <strong>of</strong> having “dirtiedone’s hands,” <strong>of</strong> dealing with an exciting reality, and<strong>of</strong> facing a huge drama.The culture critic Hans Magnus Enzensberger writesin an essay on luxury about reminiscences <strong>of</strong> abundance:“Luxury has…fallen prey <strong>to</strong> entropy, <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong>laws that govern <strong>the</strong> equalization <strong>of</strong> extremes, <strong>to</strong>similarity and uniformity. In all former societies,abundance and wastefulness were <strong>the</strong> exception<strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> rule. But exactly <strong>the</strong> fact that luxury left alleveryday norms behind was <strong>the</strong> reason for its gloryand prestige. Mass production has secured its greatesttriumph and simultaneously signalled its decline…The morgues <strong>of</strong> luxury are ei<strong>the</strong>r called Duty FreeShop or Shopping Mall.” 22)Having accounted for how we always turn our backson everything that is abundant – luxury negates itselfin <strong>the</strong> sense that what is owned by everybodycannot be seen as being special or interesting anylonger – Hans Magnus Enzensberger describes <strong>the</strong>luxuries <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> future as being: “New priorities…scarce,rare and expensive benefits, elementary living conditionssuch as peace and quiet, clean water and adequatespace…Future luxuries part with that which issuperfluous and strive for <strong>the</strong> necessary, which wemay fear will only be at <strong>the</strong> disposal <strong>of</strong> a happy few.What really matters is not on sale in any Duty FreeShop”… Hans Magnus Enzensberger <strong>the</strong>n speaks<strong>of</strong>: Time, attention, space, peace and quiet, environment,and security.“The future <strong>of</strong> luxury is not, as formerly, acquiringmore, but acquiring less, not piling up, but peeling<strong>of</strong>f. It will no longer demand an audience, ra<strong>the</strong>r itwill exclude it. Its logic will be just that: <strong>to</strong> becomeinvisible. In such a withdrawal from life, luxury wouldseem <strong>to</strong> remain faithful <strong>to</strong> its origin because it hasalways been warring with <strong>the</strong> principle <strong>of</strong> reality.”In many cases this means that a smaller amount willbe <strong>of</strong>fered at a higher price.“Our lives <strong>to</strong>day are marked by ubiqui<strong>to</strong>us plumbing,central heating and music from loudspeakers, and bymankind being healthier and having a longer life expectancythan before. But <strong>the</strong> important things in life arestill birth and death, love and friendship, loyalty ando<strong>the</strong>r people, and <strong>the</strong> feeling <strong>of</strong> using oneself well inlife. And in that sense we are no different from peopleliving 200 years ago,” Tor Nørretranders thinks similarly. 23)<strong>Reactions</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> pace <strong>of</strong> changeThe past stirs sentimentality in us when it is so distantthat it is almost gone, and in no way presses itselfupon us.We have several ways in which we preserve originalityin modern society. Three categories could be:His<strong>to</strong>ry, nature and traditions.His<strong>to</strong>ryMuseums are places where “<strong>the</strong> au<strong>the</strong>ntic” is preserved.Ei<strong>the</strong>r because it is old or because it is rare. In 1961,7.5 million DKK were designated <strong>to</strong> preservation on <strong>the</strong>Danish annual budget, and this amount had increased <strong>to</strong>471 million DKK in 1998. Preserving <strong>the</strong> past grows proportionallywith <strong>the</strong> acceleration <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> change <strong>of</strong> pace.Insisting on identity by way <strong>of</strong> his<strong>to</strong>ric behaviouris an example <strong>of</strong> seeing <strong>the</strong> his<strong>to</strong>rically original asbeing better, as possessing something which itwould be disastrous <strong>to</strong> lose.In Denmark, modern families are queuing up <strong>to</strong> livein <strong>the</strong> Iron Age. The Iron Age is represented by <strong>the</strong>Iron Age Village in <strong>the</strong> Lejre Experimental Centre inLejre, Denmark, where families can live almost aspeople did <strong>the</strong>n. That is, without rubber boots, s<strong>to</strong>ves,refrigera<strong>to</strong>rs, or electric lighting etc.. Today <strong>the</strong>reare about 30 places in Denmark that attempt <strong>to</strong> bringhis<strong>to</strong>ry <strong>to</strong> life with workshops, reconstructions andplays about <strong>the</strong> Middle Ages.19) The number <strong>of</strong> members <strong>of</strong> The Danish Society for <strong>the</strong> Conservation <strong>of</strong> Nature went up from 50,000 in 1974 <strong>to</strong> 270,000 in 1988.Since <strong>the</strong>n, <strong>the</strong> number <strong>of</strong> members has dropped steadily. But this should be viewed as <strong>the</strong> failure <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> passive form <strong>of</strong> associationsra<strong>the</strong>r than a lack <strong>of</strong> interest in nature. Source: Lars Bo Petersen, The Danish Society for <strong>the</strong> Conservation <strong>of</strong> Nature.20) Eco Web Denmark: Ecological farming in numbers – http://ecoweb.dk/tal/2ba.htm – and a listing <strong>of</strong> ecological farms with milk quotas.21) Rolf Jensen, The Dream Society: How <strong>the</strong> Coming Shift from Information <strong>to</strong> Imagination will Transform your Business (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1999)22) Hans Magnus Enzensberger, Zig Zag: The Politics <strong>of</strong> Culture and Vice Versa (1997; New Press, 1999)23) Article entitled “Nærvær fås ikke på computer” [Computers Provide no Presence] in Danish newspaper Berlingske Tidende, December 18, 199912 R E A C T I O N S T O T H E P A C E O F C H A N G E


An interviewed test person at an Iron Age centresaid, “I got in <strong>to</strong>uch with certain primitive instincts”…”When I am dressed in my his<strong>to</strong>rical costume I feeldifferent, not set back in time, but different in myroots. I feel Iron Age-like” – implying that this ispositive and au<strong>the</strong>ntic. 24)“These families <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> past feel that <strong>the</strong>y becomecloser <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong>mselves, and that adults hand down truevalues <strong>to</strong> children: respecting things, knowing that<strong>the</strong>y do not come easily but that one has <strong>to</strong> workfor <strong>the</strong>m. That it is important <strong>to</strong> know where thingscome from, <strong>to</strong> help each o<strong>the</strong>r, <strong>to</strong> work <strong>to</strong>ge<strong>the</strong>r andenjoy what is at hand…<strong>to</strong>uching <strong>the</strong> soil, what isright, healthy, growth, <strong>the</strong> crop, and <strong>the</strong> elements,”says anthropologist Johanne Steenstrup.One <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> obvious benefits <strong>of</strong> a trip <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> Iron AgeVillage is that reality becomes more transparent. Itbecomes more simple and one’s identity more apparent:It becomes obvious which skills and talentsone possesses. A good inven<strong>to</strong>r or an expert on herbsand berries is respected. Families notice whe<strong>the</strong>ro<strong>the</strong>r families’ children participate in <strong>the</strong> chores.The wave <strong>of</strong> nostalgia and retro comes also under<strong>the</strong> heading <strong>of</strong> his<strong>to</strong>ry: Selling <strong>the</strong> old days, even <strong>the</strong>Bronze Age: The Aurion Bakery has launched a newcereal product, spelt. This cereal is treated as itwas 3000 years ago, and archaeologists have foundremnants <strong>of</strong> it from <strong>the</strong> later Bronze Age.At <strong>the</strong> end <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> 90s, <strong>the</strong> UN opened an <strong>of</strong>fice forindigenous peoples and <strong>the</strong>ir rights. Primitive peoples’living conditions must be preserved at <strong>the</strong> lastminute or else <strong>the</strong>re will be nothing left <strong>to</strong> preserve.NatureAs an apparent counterreaction <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> large amoun<strong>to</strong>f time spent on digital distance-presence, Europeansincreasingly choose nature as <strong>the</strong>ir favourite sparetimewhereabouts, despite <strong>the</strong> fact that <strong>the</strong> number<strong>of</strong> free-time activities in general has increased.• Whereas 90 % <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Danes visit <strong>the</strong> forest at leas<strong>to</strong>nce a year, only 57 % visit <strong>the</strong> library, 45 % <strong>the</strong>cinema, and 32 % <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>atre. Visi<strong>to</strong>rs <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> forestemphasize <strong>the</strong> attraction <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> silence. 25)• The hurricane in Northwest Europe in December1999 caused tumultuous reactions. Nature ruled,and its savagery was <strong>to</strong>p news for a little while,and a rare experience.Biodiversity is threatened. Rain forests are replacedby deserts, and more and more species are ei<strong>the</strong>r extinc<strong>to</strong>r seriously endangered. Dying species are worthpreserving. The exception being diseases and bacteria,which we are fighting hard <strong>to</strong> conquer. Genetic technologywill advance certain genes and restrain o<strong>the</strong>rs.But generally speaking, a selected part <strong>of</strong> biodiversityis worth preserving. And so we do so, in botanicalgardens and nature reserves. Botanical gardenshave set up banks for seeds and genes with <strong>the</strong> purpose<strong>of</strong> preserving threatened and rare plants. Due<strong>to</strong> a special treatment, <strong>the</strong>se seeds may keep <strong>the</strong>irviability and germinability over hundreds <strong>of</strong> years. 26)A Swedish survey from 1992 shows that childrenin nature kindergartens do better than children inordinary <strong>to</strong>wn kindergartens. Their well-being ismeasured in fewer sick days, better mo<strong>to</strong>r skills, anda better ability <strong>to</strong> concentrate. American scientistshave shown a parallel between well-being and nature.“Patients hospitalized in ordinary wards with a beautifulview <strong>of</strong> nature were in less need <strong>of</strong> pain-killingmedication and were discharged earlier than thosein wards without view <strong>of</strong> nature. O<strong>the</strong>r scientists haveworked with nature as a “healer” <strong>of</strong> an increasinglycommon ailment called “psychological exhaustion”which is thought <strong>to</strong> originate from information overload<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> brain! People suffering from this diseasewere declared completely healthy after a stay in <strong>the</strong>wilderness!” 27)Considering <strong>the</strong> increase in visits <strong>to</strong> nature, naturekindergartens, and <strong>the</strong> free-time phenomenon <strong>of</strong> “enjoyingnature,” <strong>the</strong> psychologist William Hammit thinksthat inherent in this urge for <strong>the</strong> wilderness are needsfor psychological recreation. These are basically allcounterparts <strong>of</strong> modern city life. Two <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se are:- Emotional relaxation: nobody watching orassessing one – a need which does not exactlyseem <strong>to</strong> be experiencing favourable winds withcheap network cameras in most public places.- Finding oneself, and one’s wishes, by way <strong>of</strong>solitude, because solitude is thought <strong>to</strong> stimulateone’s sense <strong>of</strong> self and self-respect. 28)C O P E N H A G E N I N S T I T U T E F O R F U T U R E S S T U D I E S24) Article entitled “Jeg kom ind til nogle urinstinkter” [I Got in Touch With my Primitive Instincts] in Danish newspaper Weekend Avisen,September 17, 199925) Danish Forest and Landscape Research Institute26) The idea <strong>of</strong> conserving nature arose simultaneously in a number <strong>of</strong> European countries and <strong>the</strong> US, which opened <strong>the</strong>ir first nationalpark in 1872. In Denmark, <strong>the</strong> Danish Society for <strong>the</strong> Conservation <strong>of</strong> Nature was founded in 1911, and <strong>the</strong> first law governing natureconservation was passed in 1917. This law was concerned with <strong>the</strong> protection <strong>of</strong> unique landscape values and <strong>the</strong> creation <strong>of</strong> recreationalareas for citizens. The Danish Outdoor Council was established in 1931, <strong>the</strong> World Wildlife Fund in 1961, and Greenpeace in 1971.In 1972, UNSCO was established with <strong>the</strong> purpose <strong>of</strong> protecting <strong>the</strong> world’s cultural and national heritage. Since 1989, <strong>the</strong> work carriedout by <strong>the</strong> Danish Ministry <strong>of</strong> Environmental Affairs <strong>to</strong> preserve nature has been supplemented with a new concept <strong>of</strong> “nature res<strong>to</strong>ration.”In 1989, <strong>the</strong> UN adopted a resolution <strong>of</strong> biological diversity.27) http://www.dn.dk/natur_miljo/natborn.html28) http://www.isnet.com/home/getlost/kelly.html as well as article entitled “Isolation is <strong>the</strong> Answer” in Get Lost Adventure Magazine,getlost@isnet.comM E M B E R S R E P O R T 1 / 2 0 0 013


Traditions – a Scarce Benefitin <strong>the</strong> Dynamic CivilizationIn dynamic civilizations, traditions become a scarcebenefit. This happens because quick changes,improved procedures and fast development areexactly what being dynamic means, and traditions,in a certain sense, represent slowness. They arerepetitions, marked by routine and set patterns.They are that which is already known.Traditions are separate from habits because <strong>the</strong>yare ritualized behaviour, i.e. <strong>the</strong>y are conscious,symbolically accentuated behavioural patterns thatare consciously repeated. 29)Apparently all traditions have been created because<strong>the</strong>re was a need for <strong>the</strong>m. And <strong>the</strong>y also dieout as soon as <strong>the</strong> users no longer are able <strong>to</strong> identify<strong>the</strong>mselves with <strong>the</strong>m, or are forced <strong>to</strong> use <strong>the</strong>m. 30)Which traditions are alive?Those whose rituals are alive?Gospel services in <strong>the</strong> US attract large audiences,and so do Catholic Masses and Mosques. But this isnot so in <strong>the</strong> Protestant churches.Although <strong>the</strong> Protestant service is also a “festival,”<strong>the</strong> festivities are invisible and <strong>the</strong> rituals difficult <strong>to</strong>catch sight <strong>of</strong>. The service features a sermon resemblinga minister’s soliloquy, some singing and organplaying. And only few participants attend. Only atChristmas and christenings when <strong>the</strong> festivities areobvious, and <strong>the</strong> myths and values are spelled out,is <strong>the</strong>re a full house. At <strong>the</strong>se times, we understandwhat is going on and what is being celebrated.In order that a tradition may live on and that ritualsmay be performed, <strong>the</strong> participants must truly beparticipants, i.e. recognize <strong>the</strong> symbolic content.A fa<strong>the</strong>r who does not see <strong>the</strong> purpose <strong>of</strong> behavingat <strong>the</strong> table, <strong>of</strong> saying evening prayers, or cuttingdown a Christmas tree will not be able <strong>to</strong> hand <strong>the</strong>setraditions down <strong>to</strong> his children as viable traditions.A company’s workers do not know how <strong>to</strong> celebratea success if <strong>the</strong>y do not understand what isbeing celebrated or why. The purpose <strong>of</strong> a party ora ritual must ei<strong>the</strong>r be desirable or evident for <strong>the</strong>participants if <strong>the</strong>y are <strong>to</strong> be seen as participants.And without participants, <strong>the</strong>re would hardly beany party.At sporting events, <strong>the</strong> participants are <strong>of</strong>ten dedicatedfans, and <strong>the</strong>y certainly know how <strong>to</strong> party.They have rituals such as “<strong>the</strong> Mexican wave,” yelling,singing, and drinking beer. Party make-up is important:The participants dress up for this party. Theircostumes cannot <strong>to</strong> be mistaken and <strong>the</strong>y can alwaysbe developed, replaced or improved. The sale <strong>of</strong>shirts and scarves is excellent.In sports traditions, <strong>the</strong>re are obvious miles<strong>to</strong>neswhich keep up <strong>the</strong> excitement and regularly occasionhappiness. These are for instance preparations, <strong>the</strong>players, whose exercises and statements are TVtransmitted,play-<strong>of</strong>f games, advance booking,transportation etc. And finally <strong>the</strong>re are <strong>the</strong> “relics”in <strong>the</strong> form <strong>of</strong> banners, video tapes, vic<strong>to</strong>ry yearsknown by heart, pictures <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> players, emblemsand logos <strong>to</strong> sew on<strong>to</strong> one’s clo<strong>the</strong>s.Stability as a <strong>to</strong>olDuring unstable phases, e.g. times <strong>of</strong> readjustmen<strong>to</strong>r sudden readjustment, <strong>to</strong>ols <strong>to</strong> handle this “crisis”are stability created by key figures, stable rhythms,habits, and routines.Experience shows that people who are good atimplementing changes are <strong>the</strong> same people who knowhow <strong>to</strong> hold on and stay focussed on that which isnot changing. Thus, a good leader in a process <strong>of</strong>change is <strong>of</strong>ten a person who is close <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> staffand someone <strong>the</strong>y can turn <strong>to</strong>. Someone who constantlyreminds <strong>the</strong>m <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir rewards and knows how<strong>to</strong> keep <strong>the</strong> point and purpose clear. Just like <strong>the</strong> captain<strong>of</strong> a ship, charting <strong>the</strong> course and following it.Rituals are set behaviour. In connection withchanges, unknown situations, visits <strong>to</strong> strangers etc.,rituals provide behaviour we may fall back on. Theknown in <strong>the</strong> unknown. Knowing how <strong>to</strong> behave ina new situation, or in <strong>the</strong> period before such a newsituation, makes it easier <strong>to</strong> cope with. 31)29) Eric Hobsbawm and Terence Ranger, eds., The Invention <strong>of</strong> Tradition (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993)30) More information about rituals and traditions can be found in Else Marie K<strong>of</strong>oed, Politikens bog om skik og brug: traditioner,overtro og his<strong>to</strong>risk baggrund [Danish Handbook <strong>of</strong> Cus<strong>to</strong>ms, Traditions and Superstitions](København: Politikens Forlag, 1999)31) Else Marie K<strong>of</strong>oed, Politikens bog om skik og brug: traditioner, overtro og his<strong>to</strong>risk baggrund [Danish Handbook <strong>of</strong> Cus<strong>to</strong>ms,Traditions and Superstitions](København: Politikens Forlag, 1999)14 R E A C T I O N S T O T H E P A C E O F C H A N G E


Seeing Zeus on occasionAs a psychologist, Kurt Kørner 32) has experienced<strong>the</strong> expressed needs among <strong>the</strong> workers for meetingwith <strong>the</strong> managing direc<strong>to</strong>r, or <strong>the</strong> board <strong>of</strong> managers,on a regular basis (once every six months, for example).To <strong>the</strong> workers, this means being in contactwith <strong>the</strong> management and focussing on <strong>the</strong> purpose<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir work. The o<strong>the</strong>r way round, it is a good opportunityfor <strong>the</strong> manager <strong>to</strong> get <strong>to</strong> know his staffand find out <strong>the</strong> lie <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> land among <strong>the</strong> company’sprime asset.Kurt Kørner labels this a need for “seeing Zeus”on occasion in order <strong>to</strong> understand where <strong>the</strong> companyis headed. Sports coaches, as well as managersand laymen, have first-hand experience with <strong>the</strong>motivation that this gives rise <strong>to</strong>, and with how muchmore people can endure when <strong>the</strong>y are aware <strong>of</strong> agoal. When we know what <strong>the</strong> purpose <strong>of</strong> our workis, we can work more, and we feel better.As examples <strong>of</strong> traditions and rituals at Danfoss,Kurt Kørner mentions:• 25 and 40 years’ jubilees where <strong>the</strong> worker ispresented with ei<strong>the</strong>r a gold watch and/orone month’s extra salary, and is picked up ina limousine etc.• Veteran parties.• Christmas parcels. This parcel functions as bonding,<strong>to</strong>o, and is a <strong>to</strong>pic <strong>of</strong> conversation on <strong>the</strong>same level as <strong>the</strong> wea<strong>the</strong>r. When <strong>the</strong> managementproposed <strong>to</strong> cut away <strong>the</strong> Christmas parcel becauseit is <strong>to</strong>o expensive for Danfoss, <strong>the</strong>y were warnedby <strong>the</strong> shop stewards that this was absolutely not<strong>the</strong> right place <strong>to</strong> cut back.• Family open days: The centrally planned familyopen days only attract about 12 % <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> staff’sfamilies, whereas <strong>the</strong> locally organized open days,where <strong>the</strong> divisions take care <strong>of</strong> inviting andshowing <strong>the</strong>ir families around <strong>the</strong>ir <strong>of</strong>fices, attractabout 90 %. The motivation is most probablycloseness. The participants arrange <strong>the</strong> event<strong>the</strong>mselves and are thus ‘in <strong>the</strong> know’ about <strong>the</strong>festivities.Traditions and fixed ingredients provide security ininsecure times. When we start something new, orwhen we are about <strong>to</strong> capsize, that which is fixedcan be terribly missed, just like an anchor or a compasson board a ship. In <strong>the</strong>se threatening situations,we experience <strong>to</strong>tal flexibility, i.e. being without ananchor, as a lack.Up-<strong>to</strong>-date traditionsNever<strong>the</strong>less, ritualized behaviour is also subject <strong>to</strong>change, and it should change in order <strong>to</strong> remain up<strong>to</strong>-datefor <strong>the</strong> people performing <strong>the</strong> rituals – forinstance, <strong>the</strong> ways in which we socialize during adinner, or a party etc. have changed from 100 yearsago.The sociologist Anthony Giddens writes abouttraditions as one <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> areas that are affected byglobalization. 33) We cannot exist without traditions,but it is not necessarily <strong>the</strong> old, rigid traditions weshould drag along with us. On <strong>the</strong> contrary, now isa good time <strong>to</strong> redefine society’s values. Letting go<strong>of</strong> traditions means freedom, but in order <strong>to</strong> use freedomconstructively, i.e. avoid that it turns in<strong>to</strong> fear,new and up-<strong>to</strong>-date frameworks must be created.With <strong>the</strong> disappearance <strong>of</strong> tradition, <strong>the</strong> basis forpersonal identity changes as well. Personal identitymust be created more actively than before. According<strong>to</strong> Giddens, this explains why <strong>the</strong>rapy and differentkinds <strong>of</strong> counselling have become so popularin modern psychoanalysis. And why fundamentalismis so apparent <strong>the</strong>se years when borders generallyare being broken down.Tradition may very well be defended in a nontraditionalmanner – and this is thought <strong>to</strong> be <strong>the</strong>irfuture.C O P E N H A G E N I N S T I T U T E F O R F U T U R E S S T U D I E S32) Kurt Kørner is Chief Psychologist at Danfoss33) Anthony Giddens, Runaway World: How Globalisation is Reshaping Our Lives (New York: Routledge, 2000)M E M B E R S R E P O R T 1 / 2 0 0 015


Viable and non-viable traditionsIt is easier <strong>to</strong> introduce rational traditions, i.e. traditionsthat set <strong>the</strong> stage for something that is actuallyuseful, or traditions that are connected with life ingeneral. For example, it would be easier <strong>to</strong> introducea tradition for drinking beer <strong>to</strong>ge<strong>the</strong>r on Fridays in<strong>the</strong> afternoon ra<strong>the</strong>r than Tuesday mornings, andgiving each o<strong>the</strong>r presents after doing a good jobra<strong>the</strong>r than cleaning out <strong>the</strong> basement <strong>to</strong> celebrate…!Danish lecturer in Nordic Philology at University<strong>of</strong> Copenhagen, Erik A. Nielsen, 34) writes aboutmodern culture, <strong>the</strong> industrial culture, having hardlyany games, rituals or traditions. Not that <strong>the</strong> old ritualsand traditions should have been preserved. Theold rituals and traditions should not be preservedbecause <strong>the</strong>ir meaning has become obsolete. Butin order <strong>to</strong> be able <strong>to</strong> institute up-<strong>to</strong>-date traditionsand rituals, we must be aware <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> values we have.“…Industrial culture has demolished all symbolicconnections which tied <strong>the</strong> stages <strong>of</strong> our lives <strong>to</strong>ge<strong>the</strong>rand oriented people about <strong>the</strong>ir places in <strong>the</strong>irown worlds. Although <strong>the</strong> world has never beendescribed in such detail as it has been in this century,for an unheard number <strong>of</strong> people it still appears asa landscape in which it is all but impossible <strong>to</strong> orien<strong>to</strong>neself, in <strong>the</strong> same manner as it would be if all roadsigns in a country suddenly disappeared.”“With its irreligious nature, <strong>the</strong> industrial culture isunable <strong>to</strong> play <strong>the</strong> large-scale games that form <strong>the</strong>framework for an entire course <strong>of</strong> life, or an entiresociety’s manifestations <strong>of</strong> life. Industrial culture ischaracterized by strictly taking everything at surfacevalue, and by a systematic seriousness capable <strong>of</strong>ousting more playful cultural expressions. Its completelyserious way <strong>of</strong> thinking has contributed <strong>to</strong>make modern working life so dull that it has beennecessary <strong>to</strong> invent all kinds <strong>of</strong> technological anddata-processing <strong>to</strong>ys…And as true spoilsports, <strong>the</strong>very same ways <strong>of</strong> thinking have demolished <strong>the</strong>more imaginative games and games with responsibilitieswhich former societies have used for expressingand rejuvenating <strong>the</strong>ir cohesive force…” [In aninterview in <strong>the</strong> winter <strong>of</strong> 1999, Danish Prime MinisterPoul Nyrup Rasmussen asked what had become<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> “cohesive force” in Danish society! 35) ]Traditions are occasions for staging parts <strong>of</strong> liferadically and for limited periods <strong>of</strong> time. Like havingdinner <strong>to</strong>ge<strong>the</strong>r or playing games, traditions arecapable <strong>of</strong> being occasions for company and celebration,and for forgetting <strong>the</strong> worries and insecurities<strong>of</strong> everyday life.In a complex culture marked by freedom, traditionscan provide desirable structures and frameworks –attractive exactly because <strong>the</strong>y are chosen andfunction at <strong>the</strong> same level as games. They are notbinding, nor do <strong>the</strong>y take away freedom from any <strong>of</strong><strong>the</strong> participants. More than anything else, traditionsmay be used in <strong>the</strong> same way as games.Pr<strong>of</strong>essor <strong>of</strong> Economics and Social His<strong>to</strong>ry at LondonUniversity, Eric Hobsbawm, predicted already 20years ago that new traditions would be in demandin modern societies, <strong>the</strong> more <strong>the</strong>ir new lifestylesgrew apart from <strong>the</strong> old ones:“Where <strong>the</strong> old traditions are alive, traditions needbe nei<strong>the</strong>r revived, nor invented.” 36)“We should expect it [inventing traditions] <strong>to</strong>occur more frequently when a rapid transformation<strong>of</strong> society weakens or destroys social patterns forwhich old traditions and <strong>the</strong>ir institutional carriersand promulga<strong>to</strong>rs no longer prove sufficiently adaptableand flexible, or are o<strong>the</strong>rwise eliminated:In short, when <strong>the</strong>re are sufficiently large and rapidchanges on <strong>the</strong> demand or <strong>the</strong> supply side. 37)34) From 1971-1985, Erik A. Nielsen was a member <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Danish Ministry <strong>of</strong> Ecclesiastical Affairs’ liturgical commission and he is jointlyresponsible for its subsequent introduction <strong>of</strong> an amendment <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> service <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Danish National Evangelical Lu<strong>the</strong>ran Church.Author <strong>of</strong> Den skjulte gudstjeneste [The Hidden Service] (Copenhagen: Forlaget Amadeus, 1987)35) Danish newspaper Weekend Avisen, November 12-18, 199936) Eric Hobsbawm and Terence Ranger, eds., The Invention <strong>of</strong> Tradition (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993) p. 837) Eric Hobsbawm and Terence Ranger, eds., The Invention <strong>of</strong> Tradition (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993) p. 538) Interview with Marketing Direc<strong>to</strong>r in Magasin du Nord, Martin Delfer, and Marketing Manager in Irma, Mette Frandsen.16 R E A C T I O N S T O T H E P A C E O F C H A N G E


Traditions in <strong>the</strong> workplace and in <strong>the</strong> labourmarket are successful when we can relate <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong>occasion, because this is what creates <strong>the</strong> excitement.Country <strong>the</strong>mes work better for food sales than hightechnologicalequipment. The consumer remembers<strong>the</strong> food she had in Greece, and <strong>the</strong> cheese in Franceetc. Food from foreign countries can stimulate goodtravelling experiences and serve as a special occasionfor cooking this sort <strong>of</strong> food at home. 38)When it comes <strong>to</strong> country <strong>the</strong>mes, <strong>the</strong> effect <strong>of</strong><strong>the</strong>me weeks is lower <strong>to</strong>day than only 10-15 yearsago because at that time, <strong>the</strong> feeling <strong>of</strong> au<strong>the</strong>nticitywas still intact. Today, it is necessary <strong>to</strong> be morecareful, because it is dangerous if consumers feelthat <strong>the</strong>y are being fooled. But creating food <strong>the</strong>mesis an obvious way <strong>of</strong> getting <strong>the</strong> cus<strong>to</strong>mer’s attention.Martin Delfer, Marketing Direc<strong>to</strong>r <strong>of</strong> Magasin du Nordexplains that consumers are attracted <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong>mes.Themes provide a feeling <strong>of</strong> au<strong>the</strong>nticity, a “psychologicaltrip” or a “mental break.” The imported foodgives people a feeling <strong>of</strong> being in <strong>the</strong> country. Thustraditions can have external advantages, and on <strong>to</strong>p<strong>of</strong> that <strong>the</strong>y also put extra focus on <strong>the</strong> s<strong>to</strong>re. Internally,<strong>the</strong>me weeks motivate <strong>the</strong> staff because <strong>the</strong>ybring variety in<strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir work and change <strong>the</strong> usualfocus. In <strong>the</strong> experience <strong>of</strong> Mette Frandsen, MarketingManager in Irma, <strong>the</strong> staff’s workplace becomesstaged.C O P E N H A G E N I N S T I T U T E F O R F U T U R E S S T U D I E SSee Annexe for more information about traditionsAnnexe 1: Invented TraditionsM E M B E R S R E P O R T 1 / 2 0 0 017


Constancy <strong>of</strong> FlexibilityMany present-day and future workplaces are basedon a company’s and its staffs’ talent for flexibility:Handling changing consumer demands as well astechnological development, individual timetables,periodic projects, changing business partners andforms for collaboration, fusions and organizationaldevelopment.In his book The Corrosion <strong>of</strong> Character, 39)Richard Sennett describes how flexible humanbeings necessarily gain an ironic perception <strong>of</strong> selfbecause <strong>the</strong>y know that what <strong>the</strong>y stand for at <strong>the</strong>moment is changing – and that in a while, <strong>the</strong>y willthink and act differently. This ironic perception <strong>of</strong>self is <strong>the</strong> inescapable consequence <strong>of</strong> life in flexibletimes without norms <strong>of</strong> authority or responsibility.We move away from a belief in no permanence <strong>to</strong>“I am not seriously real, my needs have no substance.” 40)Sennett mentions three kinds <strong>of</strong> flexibility characterizing<strong>the</strong> modern labour market:1. Flexible specialization: The purpose <strong>of</strong> flexiblespecialization is <strong>to</strong> bring still more varied productsstill faster in<strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> market place. Fur<strong>the</strong>rmore,flexible specialization means being capable <strong>of</strong>reacting at a moment’s notice <strong>to</strong> changes in <strong>the</strong>market place as well as in consumer demand– i.e. being prepared for constant renewal.2. Reinventing institutions and companies by breakingwith tradition: Loose networks are more openfor being completely reinvented than are pyramidhierarchies, such as <strong>the</strong> dominating networksduring <strong>the</strong> Ford administration. The links between<strong>the</strong> central points in a network are looser.3. Power concentration without centralization:More control over own actions at <strong>the</strong> lower levels.We will not see less structure or less bureaucracy,but a more complex structure with more holesand more opaqueness.Flexibility means• An ability <strong>to</strong> let go: Bill Gates is <strong>the</strong> example <strong>of</strong><strong>the</strong> ability <strong>to</strong> let go constantly and give in <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong>possibilities <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> market. A lack <strong>of</strong> long-termaffiliation.• Inscrutability – not freedom from limits, but morevaguely defined limits.Being extremely flexible might be a sound survivalstrategy, cf. Darwin’s <strong>the</strong>sis on <strong>the</strong> survival <strong>of</strong> nei<strong>the</strong>r<strong>the</strong> strongest nor <strong>the</strong> smartest, but <strong>the</strong> fittest.Flexibility does not in itself create identity nordoes it give meaning. We have words for invertedflexibility: Attitude relativist and turncoat.If a unity survives by constantly having a leadingedge over <strong>the</strong> desires <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> surrounding world, itmay be difficult for this unity <strong>to</strong> maintain its identity.A company’s self-image, external image, and itsbrand rest <strong>to</strong> a high degree on a defined area <strong>of</strong>competence, on an identity behind <strong>the</strong> flexibility.Planning is also a fixed point for all changes. Inorder <strong>to</strong> develop competence, a worker or companymust first <strong>of</strong> all have a tradition as well as a mission.This is <strong>the</strong> guideline, <strong>the</strong> “leitmotif,” <strong>to</strong> keep in mindwhile adapting, and during changing conditions andtasks.Compared with <strong>the</strong> success <strong>of</strong> flat structures,<strong>the</strong> incorporation <strong>of</strong> mission and tradition is alsonecessary if a worker is <strong>to</strong> form an attitude and feela responsibility <strong>to</strong> do so.Emotional inscrutabilitySennett illustrates his point by giving an example<strong>of</strong> a bakery where <strong>the</strong> workers 25 years ago had <strong>to</strong>work hard <strong>to</strong> knead <strong>the</strong> dough. They had <strong>to</strong> use<strong>the</strong>ir eyes as well as <strong>the</strong>ir noses, i.e. <strong>the</strong>ir senses, <strong>to</strong>determine when <strong>the</strong> bread was done. The amoun<strong>to</strong>f time <strong>the</strong>y used was not very flexible, and <strong>the</strong>yhad <strong>to</strong> spend time talking with each o<strong>the</strong>r in order<strong>to</strong> co-ordinate <strong>the</strong>ir different work shifts and <strong>the</strong>tasks <strong>the</strong>y had <strong>to</strong> solve <strong>to</strong>ge<strong>the</strong>r, or needed eacho<strong>the</strong>r’s help with.There were quite a few aches and pains connectedwith this job and <strong>the</strong>refore also a pr<strong>of</strong>essional pridein being able <strong>to</strong> perform it. This gave <strong>the</strong> bakers asense <strong>of</strong> identity because <strong>the</strong>y knew what <strong>the</strong>ir workdemanded <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>m, knew what it meant <strong>to</strong> be abaker and a good worker.Today, 25 years later, <strong>the</strong> bakery has been modernizedand is now run by computers. Operationally,everything is now rational and well-structured, butemotionally things are inscrutable.39) Sennett, Richard, The Corrosion <strong>of</strong> Character: The Personal Consequences <strong>of</strong> Work in <strong>the</strong> New Capitalism (New York: Nor<strong>to</strong>n, 1999)40) Sennett, Richard, The Corrosion <strong>of</strong> Character: The Personal Consequences <strong>of</strong> Work in <strong>the</strong> New Capitalism (New York: Nor<strong>to</strong>n, 1998)18 R E A C T I O N S T O T H E P A C E O F C H A N G E


The bakery has undergone a “flexible specialization”in <strong>the</strong> sense that its computer features an iconfor each <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>, not only Italian, but also Germanand French types <strong>of</strong> bread that <strong>the</strong> bakery <strong>of</strong>fers.The workers, “<strong>the</strong> bakers,” no longer have aches andpains after physically demanding work. But <strong>the</strong>y areless attached <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> place and <strong>the</strong>y say half-jokinglythat “We can do it all – be bakers, shoemakers, shopassistants, you name it” because <strong>the</strong> art <strong>of</strong> bakingis nothing but administering <strong>the</strong> computers andmachines installed in <strong>the</strong> bakery. Most breads arebaked without <strong>the</strong> worker as much as <strong>to</strong>uching orseeing <strong>the</strong>m. The bakers thus bake without actuallybaking.The weight <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir work identity has become somewhatlighter. They can adjust <strong>the</strong> machines but cannotaccumulate craftsman’s skills. “Work is no longerclear in <strong>the</strong> sense that <strong>the</strong>y can understand what<strong>the</strong>y are doing.”So what happens is that by breaking down resistanceand problems (as technical facilities do), <strong>the</strong> road issimultaneously paved for uncritical activities andcarelessness among <strong>the</strong> users. They do not understand<strong>the</strong> connections between <strong>the</strong>ir job functions.(If a machine breaks down, <strong>the</strong>y do not know how<strong>to</strong> repair it nor how <strong>to</strong> bake without it ei<strong>the</strong>r. Theyhave <strong>to</strong> wait around for a technician <strong>to</strong> come andfix it).Constancy <strong>of</strong> ritualsEyeing successes and miles<strong>to</strong>nes is actually onlypossible when one knows one’s mission. Pure flexibilityhas no success criteria besides its own survival,and this does not in itself make sense, nor is thissomething on which one can build a community,let alone a brand.It would have been a tremendous revolution for<strong>the</strong> Danes <strong>to</strong> become christianized in <strong>the</strong> past if ithad had <strong>to</strong> happen overnight. But Christianity wasapproached very pragmatically. They kept <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong>things <strong>the</strong>y knew and unders<strong>to</strong>od: The blacksmithhad a mould for <strong>the</strong> Christian cross as well as for Thor’shammer. It was <strong>the</strong>n up <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> individual <strong>to</strong> decidewho he wanted <strong>to</strong> put his faith in this time around.The Danes did not break with all <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> old traditionsat once. They acquired <strong>the</strong> new gods and dedicated<strong>the</strong>m <strong>to</strong> be helpers in <strong>the</strong> old, safe traditionsthat had secured life’s blessings under <strong>the</strong> oldcus<strong>to</strong>ms. The hea<strong>the</strong>n horn was passed along inmemory <strong>of</strong> Christ, Maria and St. Michael with <strong>the</strong>old <strong>to</strong>ast: To long life and peace. 41)Scientific ritualsAll indigenous hunting and agricultural cults have<strong>the</strong> purely materialistic purpose <strong>of</strong> supportinglivings, production and fertility. [Read: plentifulreturns and pr<strong>of</strong>itable investments].Nature or <strong>the</strong> god is worshipped as a beneficialpower.The active participation in ritually performed traditionscan be compared with <strong>the</strong> scientifically founded behaviour<strong>of</strong> our day and time: The midwife washesher hands before she delivers <strong>the</strong> baby. There is nomumbo-jumbo in this, only <strong>the</strong> fact that we knowthis increases <strong>the</strong> mo<strong>the</strong>r’s chances <strong>of</strong> surviving. Ifritual behaviour is perceived as a guarantee for <strong>the</strong>germinability <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> field next spring, <strong>the</strong>n <strong>the</strong> dancethat seems apparently meaningless <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> uninitiatedsuddenly becomes meaningful.In <strong>the</strong> 1940s, <strong>the</strong> artist Asger Jorn devoted severalyears <strong>to</strong> studying folk art and reached <strong>the</strong> conclusionthat Christianity – contrary <strong>to</strong> former religions –rendered rituals passive and separated myth fromtrade. Ritual acts were <strong>to</strong>ned down in favour <strong>of</strong> silentprayer and relatively passive wishes <strong>to</strong> God. Instead<strong>of</strong> acting out our fertility, power and potency, <strong>the</strong><strong>the</strong>atre became <strong>the</strong> institution where people wouldsit passively in <strong>the</strong> audience and watch dramas thatwere o<strong>the</strong>rwise removed from <strong>the</strong>ir everyday lives. 42)It is exactly this drama we need <strong>to</strong> re-establish in <strong>the</strong>workplace, as well as in trade.C O P E N H A G E N I N S T I T U T E F O R F U T U R E S S T U D I E S41) Vilhelm Grønbech, Kampen om mennesket [The Struggle for Man](Copenhagen, 1930).42) About <strong>the</strong> importance <strong>of</strong> staging and <strong>of</strong> ritual cult in connection with trade, Jorn writes about <strong>the</strong> magical art/attitude <strong>to</strong> life:“Imaginary action may provoke <strong>the</strong> actual action it imitates…Even if one does not become king simply by acting king, it is necessary,even for kings, <strong>to</strong> have played or practised <strong>the</strong>ir calling before <strong>the</strong>y perform it in actual practice. Even <strong>the</strong> bird in <strong>the</strong> air is not au<strong>to</strong>maticallyhit because one has drawn its picture in <strong>the</strong> sand and shot it full <strong>of</strong> arrows before <strong>the</strong> hunt, target practice is still useful practicebefore <strong>the</strong> real hunt because it has a cultivating, or what we here will term a cultic, effect if it is regularly repeated. Thus cult is ritualizedmagic. It is a means for cultivating “beneficial” imaginations and abilities in man.” Asger Jorn, Guldhorn og lykkehjul [Gold Horns andWheels <strong>of</strong> Fortune] (Copenhagen, 1957)M E M B E R S R E P O R T 1 / 2 0 0 019


Rituals – <strong>the</strong> World Upside DownRebirthing <strong>the</strong> WorldRituals may be defined as staged and consciouslyregular behaviour with symbolic content. The individualis rewarded for observing rituals and punishedfor breaking <strong>the</strong> rules. Ritual behaviour is clearlystructured and performed according <strong>to</strong> specialrules. Rituals are motivated, repeated behaviour.Mythically, <strong>the</strong>ir contents are symbolic and <strong>the</strong>irpurpose is <strong>to</strong> stabilize and maintain balance in oureveryday lives. Rituals always refer <strong>to</strong> a “myth” atindividual and company level: A dream, a mission,a world view serving a purpose.As INSPIRATION for <strong>the</strong> staging <strong>of</strong> companyculture and products, <strong>the</strong> formula for ritualcelebration is given here:Primitive peoples begin and end work periods andessential phases <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> year with magical celebrationswhich are in fact identical with <strong>the</strong> work itself. Thisis <strong>the</strong> reason why <strong>the</strong> oldest work calendars were alsoau<strong>to</strong>matically calendars <strong>of</strong> festivities, and why runestaffs were marked with seasonal holidays according<strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> rhythm <strong>of</strong> work, festivities and passages. 43)“Traditionally, what separates days <strong>of</strong> celebrationfrom normal life is that <strong>the</strong>y are in fact different.Shrovetide is a time <strong>of</strong> celebration, <strong>of</strong> eating, drinkingand speaking our mind in contrast <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> followingLent which is a period <strong>of</strong> fasting and sober, modestbehaviour. Lent is also a rite <strong>of</strong> passage by which <strong>the</strong>body is emptied <strong>of</strong> all content from everyday life, andin a state <strong>of</strong> clean susceptibility prepares itself for ahigher life while being cleansed waiting for <strong>the</strong> celebration<strong>of</strong> Easter. Ritual ablution and changes <strong>of</strong> dressshare <strong>the</strong> same meaning… Former “saint’s days” demandcertain changes in one’s way <strong>of</strong> life: Duringcelebration, people must abstain from many actionswhich are natural in daily life, such as sexual intercoursebetween man and woman; bickering and disagreementthat in daily life are only considered irregularitiesbecome deathly sins during <strong>the</strong> time <strong>of</strong> celebration…Thelocation for <strong>the</strong> festivities is isolated from<strong>the</strong> daily place <strong>of</strong> sojourn, or it has been cleansedand isolated by way <strong>of</strong> various ritual actions…”The Holy PlaceIn hea<strong>the</strong>n times, people had a holy place where <strong>the</strong>ycould go when in need <strong>of</strong> advice in a difficult situation,or needed new strength for necessary undertakings,and at this holy place some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> ceremonies meant<strong>to</strong> streng<strong>the</strong>n kinship were performed. Such a holyplace might be a tree or a well, a hill or a mountainwhere people had gone for generations.Christianity prohibited sacrificial worship <strong>of</strong> natureand in nature. One was supposed <strong>to</strong> go <strong>to</strong> churchand find strength <strong>the</strong>re. 43) Today we no longer go <strong>to</strong>church. Then where do we go?According <strong>to</strong> cultural anthropologist Eva Brendstrup,shopping at malls is a ritually performed element <strong>of</strong>everyday life for many people. Eva Brendstrup, whohas just finished a report on everyday life in shoppingmalls, thinks that our traditions and ritual behaviourfor a large part have been transferred <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> role <strong>of</strong>consumer. 44)“All-day stays and family excursions <strong>to</strong> shoppingmalls provide opportunities for self-expression whichcompare with many modern people’s ideas <strong>of</strong> what<strong>the</strong>ir needs are…A life <strong>of</strong> consumption has become<strong>the</strong> dominating form <strong>of</strong> life…a norm and matter <strong>of</strong>course…We stage ourselves and our lifestyles…ouridentities are constantly changing and undergoingtransformation. We may use shopping, and <strong>the</strong> productswe choose, <strong>to</strong> signal lifestyle and identity…Today’s shopping mall functions as a forum or a stagewhere we may show and reflect our lifestyle in comparisonwith o<strong>the</strong>rs.” The malls provide temperateclimates, an occasion for leaving home, seeingsomething else, relaxing, drinking, eating and sharingexperiences with those one may happen <strong>to</strong> be with.Fur<strong>the</strong>rmore, <strong>the</strong>y are stable (location, opening hoursas well as indoor climate can be predicted so that onecan make plans accordingly). Sources <strong>of</strong> irritationfor <strong>the</strong> participants <strong>of</strong> mall culture are: Long queues,lack <strong>of</strong> parking space, and <strong>the</strong> absence <strong>of</strong> special <strong>of</strong>fers.Ritual behaviour in this connection is: Shoppingfor necessities, having a drink in <strong>the</strong> bar, creating ashared experience, breaking out <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> confinemen<strong>to</strong>f one’s home. Shopping may also be seen as a rite<strong>of</strong> passage between work and spare time, home andlife away from home.Compared <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> amount <strong>of</strong> active pursuit andconscious, symbolic content, one might think thatthis mall culture tends <strong>to</strong> lack vitality and flavour.The basic formula for parties and seasonalholidaysThe anthropologist E. R. Leach has examined whattakes place during <strong>the</strong> performance <strong>of</strong> rites and rituals,and what <strong>the</strong> basic elements <strong>of</strong> cus<strong>to</strong>ms and rites are. 45)First and foremost, in order <strong>to</strong> celebrate and stagea day <strong>of</strong> celebration, it must be made <strong>to</strong> differ fromeveryday life. Rules and limits must be turned upside-down.In times <strong>of</strong> material need, lots <strong>of</strong> light,expensive fabrics, scents, and plenty <strong>of</strong> food create a43) Vilhelm Grønbech, Kampen om mennesket [The Struggle for Man] (Copenhagen, 1930)44) Quoted from article entitled “S<strong>to</strong>rcentre er populære udflugtsmål” [Shopping Malls are Popular Destinations for Excursions]Danish newspaper Berlingske Tidende, Section 4, February 9, 200045) Illustration and description from Carsten Bregenhøj, Helligtrekongersløb på Agersø: socialt, statistisk og strukturelt [Twelfth Night Mummingon <strong>the</strong> Island <strong>of</strong> Agersø, socially, statistically and structurally) (with an English summary) (Copenhagen: Akademisk Forlag, 1974)20 R E A C T I O N S T O T H E P A C E O F C H A N G E


BBfestive atmosphere. Being <strong>of</strong>f-duty and not having <strong>to</strong>chop time up in<strong>to</strong> small intervals makes <strong>the</strong> holiday differfrom everyday life, and constitutes its special time.At New Year’s in medieval times, <strong>the</strong> bishops letall <strong>the</strong> parish clerks wear bishops’ hats, stick out <strong>the</strong>ir<strong>to</strong>ngues and make fun <strong>of</strong> everything holy, even in<strong>the</strong> choir, as a kind <strong>of</strong> res<strong>to</strong>ration gesture. Lettingeverything die in order that it may be born and able<strong>to</strong> stand once again. There is a deeply-rooted beliefin balance through counterbalance and quid pro quoin many <strong>of</strong> our traditions and ritual rules.A good reason for drinking <strong>to</strong> Christmas was <strong>to</strong> avoidscarcity. By giving thanks <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> gods, i.e. <strong>the</strong> naturalforces, for this year’s abundance (even if more wouldhave been welcomed), one shows symbolically that<strong>the</strong>re is plenty, and that one will gratefully acceptthis again next year.In Norway it was every man’s duty <strong>to</strong> celebrateChristmas night with an ale-feast thanking Christand Mary, and in harvest, at <strong>the</strong> latest around Halloween,<strong>the</strong> village was supposed <strong>to</strong> ga<strong>the</strong>r for a collectivedrinking feast for Christ and Our Lady. Thisfeast was <strong>to</strong> consist <strong>of</strong> a company <strong>of</strong> at least threepeople, one for each peasant and one for his wives.For anyone who lived alone, this company was necessarilysubstituted by drinking beer for three. 43)Any person ignoring Christmas and <strong>the</strong> Christmasfeast had <strong>to</strong> pay a fine <strong>of</strong> three marks, and if he missed<strong>the</strong> blessing <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> ale-feast three years in a row,he was bound <strong>to</strong> stay beyond <strong>the</strong> King’s jurisdiction,and <strong>the</strong> King had <strong>to</strong> see <strong>to</strong> it that such a hea<strong>the</strong>n didnot stay in Norway.The pietistic modesty <strong>of</strong> being frugal even at times<strong>of</strong> celebration means – seen in this perspective – tha<strong>to</strong>ne paves <strong>the</strong> road for continued scarcity, and tha<strong>to</strong>ne does not know how <strong>to</strong> administer abundance!Rites <strong>of</strong> passageBetween everyday life and celebration – <strong>the</strong> normalcondition and <strong>the</strong> exception – <strong>the</strong>re is a passage whichmust proceed as a shift between <strong>the</strong> two opposites.Masking is an obvious way <strong>of</strong> signalling <strong>the</strong>se shiftsand helping <strong>the</strong>m along, and traditionally it has <strong>the</strong>reforebeen used for this purpose. Masks are wornduring celebrations, for instance at Shrovetide, NewYear, Christmas and Twelfth Night mumming etc.,and being disguised, people are free <strong>to</strong> do festivethings – here festive in <strong>the</strong> sense <strong>of</strong> reversed affairs,unusual actions, where everything is turned up-sidedown– and at <strong>the</strong> end <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> celebration, <strong>the</strong> unmaskingand identification takes place. The masks ensurethat <strong>the</strong> participants do not have <strong>to</strong> be <strong>the</strong>ir usual selvesand are allowed <strong>to</strong> behave differently than usual.In return, disguise demands someone and something<strong>to</strong> disguise oneself for. If one’s behaviour is <strong>the</strong>same irrespective <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> mask, <strong>the</strong> masking serves no purpose.Then wearing a mask becomes boring and drab.ACelebrationCTimeEveryday life that is never reversed also becomesdull, cf. Enzensberger’s rule about <strong>the</strong> excitement <strong>of</strong>“what is contrary <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> principle <strong>of</strong> reality.” What isa weekend <strong>to</strong> someone who is bored, mountain climbing<strong>to</strong> someone who always climbs mountains, orpork roast <strong>to</strong> someone who eats it every day?The basic formula for rituals are A: Preparing <strong>the</strong> “party,”<strong>the</strong> exception, <strong>the</strong> rite, intensifying <strong>the</strong> formal aspect– making a caricature <strong>of</strong> or stressing one’s fake identity.The culmination B equals <strong>the</strong> occasions when <strong>the</strong>participants appear as <strong>the</strong> exact opposite <strong>of</strong> what <strong>the</strong>yare in reality: Men performing as women, women asmen, children as adults, gentle personalities as witches,kings as beggars, waiters as masters, parish clerks asbishops. In <strong>the</strong> course <strong>of</strong> regular orgies like <strong>the</strong>se,normal social life is acted in reverse, and all kinds <strong>of</strong>sins such as incest, adultery, transvestism, sacrilege,and lese-majesty are considered <strong>the</strong> natural order <strong>of</strong><strong>the</strong> day (an exchange <strong>of</strong> roles).And C, which is <strong>the</strong> opposite <strong>of</strong> A, is <strong>the</strong> phase <strong>of</strong>unmasking when <strong>the</strong> formal and exceptional fadesin<strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> usual condition <strong>of</strong> normality.In cus<strong>to</strong>ms <strong>of</strong> disguise, masking provides <strong>the</strong> individualswith opportunities <strong>to</strong> act o<strong>the</strong>r roles than thosewhich society expects from <strong>the</strong>m. Their symbolic deathbecomes <strong>the</strong>ir rebirth. By having passed through aperiod as a different person, it is possible <strong>to</strong> return<strong>to</strong> one’s everyday role as a “new” human being.We may choose <strong>to</strong> regard <strong>the</strong> search for holidaydestinations so different from everyday life as <strong>the</strong>wilderness, or <strong>the</strong> search for high-risk sports as Bphases where everyday life is turned up-side-down,and life is radically pushed <strong>to</strong> extremes.In life forms with opaque or complex structures,it is not possible <strong>to</strong> set up <strong>the</strong> binary opposition <strong>of</strong>celebration vs. everyday life unless we view <strong>the</strong>exception as a primarily “set structure.” That wouldmake basically any kind <strong>of</strong> ritual behaviour, set <strong>of</strong>rules or clear strategy attractive and festive.In this sense it becomes natural for a modern,Western and individually free and <strong>to</strong>lerant society <strong>to</strong>adopt cus<strong>to</strong>ms and festival traditions from all parts<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> world irrespective <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir symbolic contents.At this level, it is <strong>the</strong> only <strong>the</strong> form – <strong>the</strong> presence<strong>of</strong> rules and a clear structure – that is attractive.So what is it that rituals and traditions can do thatwe need? TheyStructure and put everyday life in<strong>to</strong> perspectiveAre a means <strong>of</strong> uniting and creating communitiesAre occasions for a renewed staging <strong>of</strong> selfFree us from dull, inflexible patterns <strong>of</strong> behaviourKeep <strong>the</strong> focus on constants during changes• Maintain areas <strong>of</strong> competence and thus create abasis for developmentAEveryday LifeCelebrationCC O P E N H A G E N I N S T I T U T E F O R F U T U R E S S T U D I E SM E M B E R S R E P O R T 1 / 2 0 0 021


Complexity and Risks– <strong>the</strong> Good and <strong>the</strong> Bad1,81,61,41,210,80,60,40,20Illusion preparednessWe live in an “information society.” Global and freemedia daily transmit thousands <strong>of</strong> items <strong>of</strong> news,sensations, scientific, political, and opinionatedanalyses <strong>to</strong> all subscribers <strong>to</strong> TV, newspapers,magazines, networks etc.Danish Household Survey on <strong>the</strong> Consumption <strong>of</strong> Printed MediaShare <strong>of</strong> <strong>to</strong>tal consumption1955 1963 1966 1971 1976 1981 1987 1996Source: Statistics Denmark20 Education per person in years.1816Books, newspapers and magazines (DKK <strong>to</strong>tal)<strong>Change</strong>ddefinitions350030002500200015001000500Europeans spend more time learning in <strong>the</strong>ir sparetime than ever before. The sales <strong>of</strong> how-<strong>to</strong> books <strong>to</strong>private individuals about body, mind, relationships,parenting and child-rearing have increased considerablyin recent years. Modern people typically viewlife as a project <strong>to</strong> make progress in, with, amongo<strong>the</strong>r things, help from pr<strong>of</strong>essionals, media andhandbooks.The expected time a Western child spends in <strong>the</strong>educational system <strong>to</strong>day, from <strong>the</strong> day he or sheenters first grade, is approx. 15 years. The number <strong>of</strong>years in school has increased constantly since 1820.Please see diagram 1.USA France Germany The Ne<strong>the</strong>rlands The UK Japan0The German philosopher Odo Marquard callsthis phenomenon “illusion preparedness” 46) andattaches it <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> pace <strong>of</strong> change and <strong>the</strong> increasingcomplexity <strong>of</strong> society. We are presented with muchlarger amounts and different kinds <strong>of</strong> informationthan we can gain through experience, and we areleft with “illusions” from which we form our opinions,i.e. from o<strong>the</strong>r people’s statements, and second-handinformation.These are, for instance, journalists’ presentations <strong>of</strong><strong>the</strong> war in former Yugoslavia, Lester Brown and JulianSimon’s respective views on <strong>the</strong> greenhouse effect,47)and <strong>the</strong> result <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> food inspection on <strong>the</strong> freshness<strong>of</strong> meat compared with <strong>the</strong> local butcher’s version!Although statistics show a decline in crime, wehave difficulties believing it: Every day brings headlinesstating “Elderly lady murdered,” “30-year-oldraped in South London” or “New gang warfare harriesvillage.”The more advanced our approach <strong>to</strong> “reality” becomes,<strong>the</strong> more “pros<strong>the</strong>ses” and devices we have <strong>to</strong> beequipped with in order <strong>to</strong> reach <strong>the</strong> most preciseresults and <strong>the</strong> greatest amount <strong>of</strong> knowledge, and<strong>the</strong> wider <strong>the</strong> gap between our knowledge and thatwhich we witness with our senses.The feeling <strong>of</strong> being able <strong>to</strong> trust one’s own power<strong>of</strong> judgement and having internal standards ra<strong>the</strong>rthan external becomes a scarce benefit.Danish scientists have until recently had problemsconvincing Greenland whalers that <strong>the</strong> arctic whitewhales, which are numerous <strong>of</strong>f <strong>the</strong> west coast <strong>of</strong>Greenland, are actually endangered. The whalers’eyes see that <strong>the</strong>re are plenty <strong>of</strong> whales, but Danishscientists’ figures show that <strong>the</strong> population is decreasingand <strong>the</strong>ir living conditions are endangered. In<strong>the</strong> coming years, <strong>the</strong> Danish Polar Center is <strong>the</strong>reforegoing <strong>to</strong> include <strong>the</strong> whalers in <strong>the</strong> work <strong>of</strong>registering <strong>the</strong> population.141210864201820 1870 1913 1950 1973 1992Diagram 1. Source:Angus Maddison OECD Economic Outlook 199946) Odo Marquard, In Defense <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Accidental: Philosophical Studies (translated from <strong>the</strong> German by Robert M. Wallace)(1986; New York: Oxford University Press, 1991)47) Lester Brown has published several doomsday scenarios and is <strong>the</strong> edi<strong>to</strong>r <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Worldwatch Institute’s annual report on“progress <strong>to</strong>ward a sustainable society,” The State <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> World.. Julian Simon is <strong>the</strong> author <strong>of</strong> The State <strong>of</strong> Humanity (Blackwell Pub., 1996)and The ultimate resource 2 [Rev. ed.](Princ<strong>to</strong>n, N.J.: Prince<strong>to</strong>n University Press, 1996), providing facts concerning <strong>the</strong> so-called truestate <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> world which is very positive.22 R E A C T I O N S T O T H E P A C E O F C H A N G E


Unambiguousness – a scarce benefitBefore eating a tuna fish sandwich, <strong>the</strong>re are principallyvery many things <strong>to</strong> make up one’s mind about.Not just whe<strong>the</strong>r one is hungry, likes tuna, and hasfood enough for <strong>to</strong>morrow. We might s<strong>to</strong>p <strong>to</strong> thinkabout: Heavy metals in <strong>the</strong> fish, <strong>the</strong> fishermen’sethics, <strong>the</strong> tin’s potential residue <strong>of</strong> chemical combinations,<strong>the</strong> amount <strong>of</strong> monounsaturated fat, only<strong>to</strong> mention a few important things that we cannotassess with our eyes, noses or ears, let alone tastebuds. Please also refer <strong>to</strong> Annexe 3.As ordinary consumers, we have become amateurs<strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> “state <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> world.” Victims <strong>of</strong> rumours!It is possible, however, <strong>to</strong> stay informed by way <strong>of</strong><strong>the</strong> media, but for several good reasons <strong>the</strong>y areambiguous.In <strong>the</strong> debate about <strong>the</strong> greenhouse effect, manyexperts on this matter have thus admitted that <strong>the</strong>yhave <strong>to</strong> exaggerate <strong>the</strong> problems and threats in order<strong>to</strong> make <strong>the</strong>mselves heard – i.e. strive for a change<strong>of</strong> attitude by saying things that are not quite true.“The number <strong>of</strong> critical and aware consumers isincreasing. We pay more attention <strong>to</strong> ethics, andconsumers seek out more information. They askquestions about whe<strong>the</strong>r child work is involved,what <strong>the</strong> environmental consequences are etc.These things have become more difficult <strong>to</strong> check inour big global world with open borders and <strong>the</strong> freeflow <strong>of</strong> goods,” explains Chief <strong>of</strong> Public Relations in<strong>the</strong> Danish Consumer Information, 48) Hanne Dam.The consumer ombudsman has recently proposed<strong>the</strong> setting up <strong>of</strong> a database in order <strong>to</strong> make clearwhat people get for <strong>the</strong>ir money when buying insurance– in an attempt <strong>to</strong> create a qualified overview<strong>of</strong> a very inscrutable market.Future products will necessarily have <strong>to</strong> take fundamentalscepticism as well as illusion preparednessin<strong>to</strong> account. It plays an important role in <strong>the</strong> sale <strong>of</strong>goods whe<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong> product is followed up with <strong>the</strong>right labels – those inspiring confidence, statingwhe<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong> product is free from that somethingwe have heard bad things about, whe<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong> shopkeeperunderstands his or her role in providinginformation and taking responsibility, and whe<strong>the</strong>r<strong>the</strong> marketing is trustworthy. Transparency as something<strong>to</strong> handle positively is a joker here. Here wellknownbrands, traditional types <strong>of</strong> goods and s<strong>to</strong>riesfrom real life (if one knows someone who manufactures<strong>the</strong> product, a friend who recommends it etc.)play a decisive part.“Product revelopment”The gap between producer and consumer has become<strong>to</strong>o great. Formerly, producer and consumer werealmost one and <strong>the</strong> same, and although <strong>the</strong> conditionsfor this happening once again are definitely not on<strong>the</strong> want list, this distance must be compensated for.This is a matter <strong>of</strong> “<strong>the</strong> experienced au<strong>the</strong>nticity.”• “Product revelopment”: Karl Marx founded aphilosophy based on <strong>the</strong> value <strong>of</strong> a product beingequal <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> amount <strong>of</strong> work put in<strong>to</strong> it. His<strong>to</strong>ryhas taught us that this is not so. But <strong>the</strong>re are plenty<strong>of</strong> examples <strong>of</strong> how <strong>the</strong> mark <strong>of</strong> human energyactually increases a product’s value: Hand-carvedwood (who would want an au<strong>to</strong>matic haircut?), atailored wedding dress etc. The product’s valuebecomes more visible when it signals <strong>the</strong> stages<strong>of</strong> its process in <strong>the</strong> shape <strong>of</strong> its his<strong>to</strong>ry, mark <strong>of</strong>origin, seasonal changes, deviations in deliveries …• Challenge <strong>the</strong> senses – with colours, wrapping,tastes, statements from trustworthy people whoinspire confidence. Ra<strong>the</strong>r a charming nerd thana slick one…• Trustworthy behaviour: If you provide personalcus<strong>to</strong>mer service, it is not trustworthy <strong>to</strong> <strong>to</strong>nedown <strong>the</strong> fact that you are dealing with a humanbeing. Over many years, personnel in banks, forexample, have tried <strong>to</strong> look as little as possible ashuman beings with good days and bad, probablyin order <strong>to</strong> add <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> impression <strong>of</strong> just and equaltreatment for everybody. But <strong>the</strong> result is dullnessand non-au<strong>the</strong>nticity. A clerk with an accent, privatepostcards stuck <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> walls <strong>of</strong> his or her “cell”who speaks with conviction is more fun – and givesway <strong>to</strong> a better feeling <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>m being a real personand that ‘what you see is what you get.’ “The owlsare what <strong>the</strong>y seem.”Diversity and personality in <strong>the</strong> workplace are encouraged<strong>to</strong> be visible in an individualized and emotionallygifted culture, cf. <strong>the</strong> Arthur Andersen company– an international assurance, business consulting andlegal services firm which has recently informed itsentire staff that <strong>the</strong>y no longer have <strong>to</strong> wear ties! 49)• Documentation – showing <strong>the</strong> stages <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>process, i.e. by way <strong>of</strong> digital transmission andvisits from schools.• Control labelling – several such labels exist already.Illusion preparedness means that <strong>the</strong>re are certainthings we have <strong>to</strong> form opinions about and act inaccordance with at <strong>the</strong> same time as not being 100 %in control. The consumer needs help here.C O P E N H A G E N I N S T I T U T E F O R F U T U R E S S T U D I E S48) A relatively new Danish institution, separate from The National Consumer Agency <strong>of</strong> Denmark. The overall function <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> ConsumerAgency is <strong>to</strong> create clarity for consumers.49) Pr<strong>of</strong>essor <strong>of</strong> Occupational Psychology at <strong>the</strong> Institute <strong>of</strong> Science and Technology at Manchester University and Manager in Chief <strong>of</strong>Communications at AOL, Matt Peacock, gives an explanation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> shift caused by e-business: The Internet revolution means thatmany old attitudes <strong>to</strong>wards business, including <strong>the</strong> uniform, are being challenged. But this tendency can also be explained ascompensation for a more stressful working life! Source: Danish newspaper Berlingske Tidende February 21, 2000.M E M B E R S R E P O R T 1 / 2 0 0 023


From given <strong>to</strong> calculated risksTechnological developments have not only removedheavy burdens but also elements <strong>of</strong> danger fromeveryday life. Seaworthy ships, lightning conduc<strong>to</strong>rs,weapons and medicine have improved <strong>the</strong> safety <strong>of</strong>our lives. We now have vaccines against formerlyfatal diseases, and we carry out research <strong>to</strong> find curesfor <strong>the</strong> ones <strong>the</strong>re are no remedies for yet. The averagelife expectancy in Europe is steadily increasing(women 80.5 years, men 74.0), and <strong>the</strong> infant mortalityrate has been reduced (Europe: 9.2 % in 1986<strong>to</strong> 5.6 % in 1996). 50)Today, <strong>the</strong> things we connect with danger are <strong>of</strong>a more indirect kind, namely manageable and calculatedrisks which we can actually read about, prepareourselves for and insure ourselves against.In <strong>the</strong> 18th century, ma<strong>the</strong>maticians discovered <strong>the</strong>advantages <strong>of</strong> taking and being able <strong>to</strong> calculate risks.Although risks were dangerous, pr<strong>of</strong>its would beproportionally larger if one could handle <strong>the</strong>m.From1725, <strong>the</strong> British government pr<strong>of</strong>ited from sellingannuities while ma<strong>the</strong>maticians competed aboutsetting up <strong>the</strong> best tables <strong>of</strong> life expectancy. Seainsurance became a flourishing and advanced line<strong>of</strong> business particularly in London.Today, we have social, health, economic, legal,psychological and environmental safety nets whichdeprive us <strong>of</strong> experiencing everyday life as risky,exciting, and thus vic<strong>to</strong>rious, as we would if wehandled our difficulties on our own.Apparently, in this area it is also <strong>the</strong> rule that ifsomething is scarce, we seek it out on our own.Risks become positive and something we approachvoluntarily and learn <strong>to</strong> master.To a large extent, modern people compensatefor this “banal” safety by turning <strong>to</strong> high-risk sports,unpleasant amusements in amusement parks, hikingin areas where scarcity <strong>of</strong> water is a daily problem,and entertainment media spelling out in detail <strong>the</strong>old drama <strong>of</strong> something real being at stake.Is everyday life <strong>to</strong>o dull?In <strong>the</strong> US and Europe, one <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> traditional AIDShigh-risk groups has once again started <strong>to</strong> practiseunsafe sex. Surveys <strong>of</strong> gays in San Francisco in <strong>the</strong>US have shown that while one third <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> gaypopulation practised unsafe sex five years ago, <strong>the</strong>number had risen <strong>to</strong> half <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> gay populationbetween 1998 and 1999. According <strong>to</strong> UNAIDS,this development is a consequence <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> newfoundtreatments for AIDS. “In Nor<strong>the</strong>rn Americaand Western Europe, we have seen signs <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>availability <strong>of</strong> life prolonging treatments contributing<strong>to</strong> people practising safe sex <strong>to</strong> a lesser degree.The prospects <strong>of</strong> keeping AIDS at bay longer thanbefore have lulled <strong>the</strong> risk groups in<strong>to</strong> a false sense<strong>of</strong> security, disregarding safe sex.” 51)In <strong>the</strong> US and Europe, so-called high-risk sports areon <strong>the</strong> rise, i.e. activities with no or very little margin<strong>of</strong> error such as BASE-jumping, 52) paragliding,snowboarding, mountain climbing etc. Hobbies thatseparate <strong>the</strong>mselves from everyday life by confrontingreal dangers and primarily being executed outdoors.BASE-jumping is at <strong>the</strong> height <strong>of</strong> its popularity.New people sign up for this sport daily even though46 people have died ‘in <strong>the</strong> act’ in <strong>the</strong> course <strong>of</strong>only 18 years. In 1997, in <strong>the</strong> US alone, 33 % morepeople (48,000) were submitted <strong>to</strong> hospitals withskateboard-related injuries than <strong>the</strong> year before.The consultant agency American Sports Data Inc.confirms that participation in extreme sports isincreasing, and <strong>the</strong> common denomina<strong>to</strong>r for thisgrowth area is that all <strong>the</strong>se sports are more challengingthan soccer. A phenomenon such as skin-diving,which is so dangerous that <strong>the</strong> Danish Sub Aqua Clubwill not have anything <strong>to</strong> do with it (because severalpeople have died while surfacing after <strong>the</strong> high pressure<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> deep), is currently one <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> most rapidlygrowing extreme sports in <strong>the</strong> world.The researcher <strong>of</strong> risks and writer Peter Bernsteinbelieves that <strong>the</strong> previous many years <strong>of</strong> growth andaffluence have motivated people <strong>to</strong> push <strong>the</strong>mselves<strong>to</strong> extremes. A feeling <strong>of</strong> safety that cries out forchallenges.50) Eurostat, Demographic Statistics, 1997.51) Peter Piot, Direc<strong>to</strong>r <strong>of</strong> UNAIDS, cited in Danish newspaper Politiken November 24, 1999 referring <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> 1999 UNAIDS report.52) Acronym for Building, Antenna, Span, Earth.24 R E A C T I O N S T O T H E P A C E O F C H A N G E


Time Magazine ties this in with <strong>the</strong> rising trade inhazardous Internet shares and that more people thanever (14.5 % in <strong>the</strong> US) leave <strong>the</strong>ir jobs voluntarily infavour <strong>of</strong> a career in s<strong>to</strong>cks and shares. One <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>daring entrepreneurs, Mike McCue, who left hismillion-dollar job in Silicon Valley in favour <strong>of</strong> settingup his own joint-s<strong>to</strong>ck company says, “I like <strong>to</strong> feelself-reliant and independent…” (even after <strong>the</strong> twoprevious companies McCue set up have folded.)Young people’s use <strong>of</strong> designer drugs is ano<strong>the</strong>rexample <strong>of</strong> voluntary high risk being associatedwith winning.In <strong>the</strong> fall <strong>of</strong> 1999, Danish television showed aDanish student who had lost all her savings and morebuying Internet shares. On TV, her comment on <strong>the</strong>matter was that she was surprised that her bank hadlet her do it. She did not think that things could goawry as long as she was just buying shares on <strong>the</strong>Internet!Attractive risksApparently, people consider it attractive and exciting<strong>to</strong> run risks as long as <strong>the</strong>se risks are <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> right kind.Attractive risks are those that give us butterflies in<strong>the</strong> s<strong>to</strong>mach and adrenaline kicks, risks that are connectedwith experiences, courage and <strong>the</strong> ability <strong>to</strong>handle difficult and demanding situations. Unattractiveare <strong>the</strong> passive, unaware or defenceless risks –those that do not provide <strong>the</strong> opportunity <strong>to</strong> win orexpand one’s future scope <strong>of</strong> action. Those that donot turn one in<strong>to</strong> a hero, such as eating chicken infectedwith salmonella, spoilt vegetables or puttingone’s money in bad s<strong>to</strong>ck. 53)The hero here might be <strong>the</strong> person who doesnot care one bit about salmonella because he wouldra<strong>the</strong>r be spending his savings on climbing equipmentthan on eco-meat.The risk gene strikes backIsraeli scientists think <strong>to</strong> have found <strong>the</strong> so-called“risk” or “excitement gene.” 54)The risk gene does not determine behaviour, butit conditions a certain desire for being stimulatedaccording <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> authors <strong>of</strong> Living with Our Genes,Dean H. Hamer and Peter Copeland.John Tooby, head <strong>of</strong> a centre for evolutionarypsychology, claims that <strong>the</strong> most adventurous peopleare fittest for survival. So although running risksmay appear foolish in a safe society, risk still triggerssomething we have inherited from our ances<strong>to</strong>rs.On <strong>the</strong> Discovery Channel on January 23 and 24,2000, an interviewed psychologist gave <strong>the</strong> obviousexplanation: Provoked risk management is a matter<strong>of</strong> expanding one’s frame <strong>of</strong> experience and capacityin order <strong>to</strong> be better fit for potential future dangers.Two American racing drivers state <strong>the</strong>ir personalviews on <strong>the</strong> reason why risky interests are so attractive:“Our society is so surgically sterile. It is almostlike our socialization just desensitizes us. Every timeI am out doing this I am searching my soul. It is <strong>the</strong>Lewis and Clark [19th century US “explorers”] gone<strong>to</strong> venture out, <strong>to</strong> find what your limitations are”…”People are taking risks because every-day risk isminimized and people want <strong>to</strong> be challenged.”Psychologist Frank Farley thinks that “consciouslytaking risks means overcoming instincts. No o<strong>the</strong>ranimal puts itself at risk for this reason. The humanrace is particularly risk-taking compared <strong>to</strong> o<strong>the</strong>rspecies.”Completing this list <strong>of</strong> opposites that supplement<strong>the</strong> demand for each o<strong>the</strong>r, we round <strong>of</strong>f with a lookat <strong>the</strong> relationship between fiction and reality on<strong>the</strong> following page.Reality has, as mentioned above, become moredifficult <strong>to</strong> grasp. Ambiguities are debated daily.That which was seen as actual reality at <strong>the</strong> time– that pota<strong>to</strong>es are good for you, experts are wise,and that your senses work well as a compass – hasnow entered fiction. At <strong>the</strong> same time, fiction hasstriven <strong>to</strong> exceed reality, or <strong>to</strong> use reality as a devicein fiction…C O P E N H A G E N I N S T I T U T E F O R F U T U R E S S T U D I E S53) “In risk management, it is essential <strong>to</strong> maximize <strong>the</strong> areas in which we control <strong>the</strong> outcome <strong>to</strong> a certain degree, at <strong>the</strong> same time aswe minimize <strong>the</strong> areas in which we have absolutely no control over <strong>the</strong> outcome and where <strong>the</strong> connection between cause and effectis hidden <strong>to</strong> us.” Peter L. Bernstein, Against <strong>the</strong> Gods: The Remarkable S<strong>to</strong>ry <strong>of</strong> Risk (New York: Wiley, 1996)54) Source <strong>of</strong> all quotations and numbers in this section: Time Magazine September 6, 1999 entitled “Life on <strong>the</strong> Edge – is Everyday Life<strong>to</strong>o Dull?”M E M B E R S R E P O R T 1 / 2 0 0 025


Fictitious reality and realistic fictionIn <strong>the</strong> 90s, more <strong>the</strong>atre direc<strong>to</strong>rs have put dwarfs,psychopaths, and criminals on stage in order <strong>to</strong> add<strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> au<strong>the</strong>nticity and effect, and <strong>to</strong> reach those“out <strong>the</strong>re” in <strong>the</strong> world <strong>of</strong> reality. In December 1999,<strong>the</strong> Swedish dramatist and <strong>the</strong>atre direc<strong>to</strong>r LarsNorén succeeded in using genuine neo-nazis in hisplay “Sju tre” [Seven three] <strong>of</strong> which two are reputed<strong>to</strong> have killed two policemen and committed a robberyduring <strong>the</strong> night following <strong>the</strong> last performance.Fiction needs stronger devices in order <strong>to</strong> “makean impact” and <strong>the</strong>refore <strong>the</strong> development <strong>of</strong> filmswith 3-D effect, Holodecks, interactive films, privatepeople’s private lives in TV programmes, genuinecriminals and immigrants on <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>atre stage areareas <strong>of</strong> growth. The new area <strong>of</strong> growth in film is<strong>the</strong> interactive s<strong>to</strong>ry in which <strong>the</strong> role <strong>of</strong> audiencehas been expanded <strong>to</strong> role <strong>of</strong> co-crea<strong>to</strong>r. In <strong>the</strong> future,cinemas will have built-in shaking devices in <strong>the</strong> seatsand films with 3-D effect giving <strong>the</strong> viewer <strong>the</strong>feeling <strong>of</strong> actually being Indiana Jones and so on.It is boring <strong>to</strong> be passive and fun <strong>to</strong> be active.Today, successful TV-shows mix fiction and reality:Real people being under 24-hour surveillance, realdestinies being exposed <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> public in host shows.On <strong>the</strong> threshold <strong>of</strong> this millennium, <strong>the</strong> film industryexpressed a high degree <strong>of</strong> scepticism about<strong>the</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>essional and commercial show culture. InThe Truman Show, it turns out that <strong>the</strong> main character’sentire universe is a TV show. Harry Truman islocked up, his life is being transmitted on television,and even his intimate relations with girlfriends aresuffused with, almost sustained by, commercials.The plot <strong>of</strong> The Matrix is a s<strong>to</strong>ry <strong>of</strong> machines feedingon human beings – pumping <strong>the</strong> life out <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>m,but maintaining <strong>the</strong> illusion in <strong>the</strong>ir brains that <strong>the</strong>ydo have a life, although it is one <strong>of</strong> standardizedand mass-produced dreams and opinions.In Denmark, two film direc<strong>to</strong>rs, Lars von Trierand Thomas Vinterberg, made a so-called vow <strong>of</strong>chastity and signed <strong>the</strong>ir Dogme 95 Manifes<strong>to</strong>, asort <strong>of</strong> 10 commandments for more realistic andgenuine (!) films. This action was supposed <strong>to</strong> fight<strong>the</strong>, by now, so very predictable dramaturgy, superficialaction and technological cosmetics. It shouldno longer be possible <strong>to</strong> hide behind technologicaltricks; now <strong>the</strong> time had come for <strong>the</strong> truth <strong>to</strong> be<strong>to</strong>ld. Dogme 95 is a kind <strong>of</strong> filmic fundamentalism,a back-<strong>to</strong>-nature movement <strong>of</strong> innocence, dictatingliberation through renunciation. The asceticism consisted<strong>of</strong> hand-held cameras, no artificial sound orlighting. The unity <strong>of</strong> time, place and actions was <strong>to</strong>be observed.Lecturer in Film and Media Science at University<strong>of</strong> Copenhagen Peter Schepelern confirms that <strong>the</strong>above mentioned films have been extraordinarilypopular. Even if parallels <strong>to</strong> this kind <strong>of</strong> metafilmsand films questioning our descriptions <strong>of</strong> realitycan be found in all film his<strong>to</strong>ry, 55) <strong>the</strong>re is now oncemore a distinct interest in playing with <strong>the</strong> reality <strong>of</strong>reality.The good part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> oldand <strong>the</strong> good part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> newA few years back, it was popular <strong>to</strong> warn companiesagainst being “stuck in <strong>the</strong> middle.” A company shouldei<strong>the</strong>r be <strong>the</strong> leading firm in its line <strong>of</strong> business, orit should have <strong>the</strong> small company’s high degree <strong>of</strong>flexibility. Perhaps it will be possible <strong>to</strong> use <strong>the</strong> samephrase, but with a different meaning, on <strong>the</strong> basis <strong>of</strong>this report – many companies now risk <strong>to</strong> be “stuckin <strong>the</strong> middle” between high technology and rituals.This is what many companies are experiencingon <strong>the</strong> s<strong>to</strong>ck market at <strong>the</strong> moment. Successfulcompanies rich in tradition have a low value seen incomparison with newly established dot-com companies,and having a good brand name is apparentlynot enough. There is not enough “future” or “sexappeal” in being a successful company, nei<strong>the</strong>r forcus<strong>to</strong>mers, potential workers nor <strong>the</strong> s<strong>to</strong>ck market.On <strong>the</strong> contrary, <strong>the</strong> dot-com companies are capable<strong>of</strong> buying up <strong>the</strong>se huge, successful companiesin <strong>the</strong> way that AOL bought Time Warner in order<strong>to</strong> gain access <strong>to</strong> contents and cus<strong>to</strong>mer pr<strong>of</strong>iles, orin <strong>the</strong> way that <strong>the</strong> Danish search engine Jubii haslaunched plans for buying up disco<strong>the</strong>ques.From <strong>the</strong>ir ra<strong>the</strong>r privileged point <strong>of</strong> view, <strong>the</strong>dot-com companies may have seen that high technologyon <strong>the</strong> one hand, and rituals and constancyon <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r, are not two scenarios, two differenttechnologies or two different segments – <strong>the</strong>y aretwo sides <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> same question. In itself, <strong>the</strong> violentpace <strong>of</strong> change generated by high technology createsa need for constancy, and roughly speaking it is possible<strong>to</strong> say that <strong>the</strong> most lucrative market in <strong>the</strong>future might be delivering constancy with helpfrom high technology – it is hardly coincidental thatBill Gates, who has been accused <strong>of</strong> everything butbeing stupid, has bought <strong>the</strong> digital rights <strong>to</strong> manyworks <strong>of</strong> art.55) The Italian neo-realists originally came up with <strong>the</strong> idea <strong>of</strong> amateur ac<strong>to</strong>rs, real locations, and down-<strong>to</strong>-earth dramaturgy taking its startingpoint in <strong>the</strong> banalities <strong>of</strong> everyday life. The American series “The Twilight Zone” from <strong>the</strong> 60s also <strong>to</strong>yed with reality becoming fictionand vice versa. In The French Lieutenant’s Woman, two levels <strong>of</strong> reality are entwined, and even Buster Kea<strong>to</strong>n made a movie in whichhe, as <strong>the</strong> direc<strong>to</strong>r, suddenly sets <strong>of</strong>f a dream. Woody Allen does <strong>the</strong> same in The Red Rose <strong>of</strong> Cairo. When colour films were introducedin <strong>the</strong> 1960s, <strong>the</strong>y did not make black and white films extinct. These soon received <strong>the</strong> status <strong>of</strong> being particularly serious or more realistic– even if reality is in colour! The production <strong>of</strong> Titanic cost more than all Danish social agencies spend in an entire year. Sylvester Stallonewas paid US$ 60 million <strong>to</strong> play Rambo, cf. <strong>the</strong> cost <strong>of</strong> approx. DKK 6 million for each Dogme film.26 R E A C T I O N S T O T H E P A C E O F C H A N G E


Annexe 1:Invented TraditionsIn <strong>the</strong> 1960s, a discussion began in Germany aboutfalse versus true traditions. This was occasioned by<strong>the</strong> reinstatement <strong>of</strong> certain traditions that had beendormant. It gave <strong>of</strong>fence that people selected parts<strong>of</strong> traditions, i.e. <strong>to</strong>ok what <strong>the</strong>y could use and let<strong>the</strong> rest be.In Denmark, we have lately seen an import <strong>of</strong>traditions, primarily from <strong>the</strong> US, such as Valentine’sDay and Halloween. The latter was actually a Danishholiday in Catholic times but was later abolished.But <strong>to</strong>day’s Danish celebration <strong>of</strong> Halloween isadopted from <strong>the</strong> US, and <strong>the</strong>, primarily commercial,forces behind <strong>the</strong> reinstatement <strong>of</strong> this holiday havealso imported its primary prop, <strong>the</strong> pumpkin, from<strong>the</strong> US. Valentine’s day has become quite a successin Denmark in <strong>the</strong> course <strong>of</strong> only a few years.Traditions arise when <strong>the</strong>re is a needfor <strong>the</strong>m and die when <strong>the</strong>re is notThe modern Scottish kilt is a relatively recent inventionalthough in people’s minds it has been synonymouswith every Highlander’s national identitysince <strong>the</strong> beginning <strong>of</strong> time. In fact, <strong>the</strong> kilt was firstre-introduced in 1725 by an English industrialist,Thomas Rawlinson at his fac<strong>to</strong>ry in Invergarry, andwas not accepted by <strong>the</strong> Scottish as a symbol <strong>of</strong>identity until <strong>the</strong> English prohibited traditional Highlandcus<strong>to</strong>ms following <strong>the</strong> Scottish rebellion against<strong>the</strong> British supremacy in 1746. A tradition, a mythand a symbol were given life by being counterparts<strong>to</strong> something <strong>the</strong> Scottish wanted <strong>to</strong> reject. 56)Most popular sports have emerged as new secularand national religions coming from <strong>the</strong> workingclass that has been constantly growing since <strong>the</strong>1870s after urbanization, democratization and traditionalsocial affiliations disappeared. The commercialmechanisms interested in sales, advertising and beingexposed at national races and matches hit <strong>the</strong> markand impelled a new cohesive force.When Atatürk wanted <strong>to</strong> modernize <strong>the</strong> Turks,one <strong>of</strong> his first strokes <strong>of</strong> genius was <strong>to</strong> prohibit <strong>the</strong>fez, <strong>the</strong> symbol <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> religious, traditional Turkey,and recommend wearing Western hats and clothcaps which were identification accessories for <strong>the</strong>engineering role-model, <strong>the</strong> modern Western world.When <strong>the</strong> French republic was founded in 1789,<strong>the</strong> revolutionaries immediately introduced nationalsolidarity and identity by instituting new cus<strong>to</strong>ms:La Marseillaise became <strong>the</strong> French national an<strong>the</strong>m,57)<strong>the</strong> republican diagram, <strong>the</strong> French tricolour washeld by a major at weddings, and monuments <strong>of</strong>Marianne and <strong>the</strong> bearded French man were erectedeverywhere. And Bastille Day was made a nationalholiday in 1880 when <strong>the</strong> third republic was founded.Similarly, Independence Day, July 4, and ThanksgivingDay in November, which is <strong>of</strong> Anglo-Saxon protestan<strong>to</strong>rigin, became national holidays in <strong>the</strong> US and served<strong>to</strong> unite a population <strong>of</strong> great diversity, <strong>of</strong> which <strong>the</strong>major part in 1860 were born in different countriesand were <strong>to</strong> be assimilated as Americans. From 1880onwards, it became cus<strong>to</strong>mary <strong>to</strong> pledge allegiance<strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> American flag at <strong>the</strong> beginning <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> schoolday in all <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> country’s schools.C O P E N H A G E N I N S T I T U T E F O R F U T U R E S S T U D I E SThe socialist labour movement was very consciousabout its myth, its symbols and ritual props. The redflag, <strong>the</strong> red paper rose, May Day, <strong>the</strong> banners,inspiring and entertaining ora<strong>to</strong>ries, and <strong>the</strong> clothcaps <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> middle class.56) Eric Hobsbawm and Terence Ranger, eds., The Invention <strong>of</strong> Tradition (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993)57) La Marseillaise has been <strong>the</strong> French national an<strong>the</strong>m since 1795. Sung for <strong>the</strong> first time at a celebration in Marseille and made popularin Paris by a group <strong>of</strong> revolutionaries from Marseille.M E M B E R S R E P O R T 1 / 2 0 0 027


Annexe 2:“Risk Society”The research <strong>of</strong> German sociologist Ulrich Beckfocuses primarily on <strong>the</strong> problems <strong>of</strong> modern-daysociety. In 1986, he was <strong>the</strong> first <strong>to</strong> introduce <strong>the</strong>concept <strong>of</strong> “risk society” in his book Risk Society:Towards a New Modernity. 58) Here he argues that<strong>the</strong> Western world is headed for a new kind <strong>of</strong>modernity in which <strong>the</strong> welfare state will distributerisks ra<strong>the</strong>r than riches. His <strong>the</strong>sis is that our fightfor daily bread has disappeared in favour <strong>of</strong> a conflic<strong>to</strong>ver how <strong>to</strong> avoid certain hazardous futurescenarios. Beck primarily focuses on ecological risks(his book was published shortly after <strong>the</strong> accidentat Chernobyl) but he also examines o<strong>the</strong>r kinds <strong>of</strong>risks found in this new modernity.The new modernity is characterized by havingbecome reflexive. When it was formerly oriented<strong>to</strong>wards making use <strong>of</strong> nature (<strong>the</strong> industrial revolution),it is <strong>to</strong>day primarily occupied with dealing with<strong>the</strong> problems caused by <strong>the</strong>se technological andeconomic developments. As a result, according <strong>to</strong>Beck, modernity itself has caused <strong>the</strong> risks <strong>of</strong> ourtime.Thus Beck repudiates <strong>the</strong> idea <strong>of</strong> developmentau<strong>to</strong>matically resulting in progress. Instead, he pointsout that in <strong>the</strong> wake <strong>of</strong> development follows difficulty.The more social and industrial developments wecreate, <strong>the</strong> more difficult it becomes for <strong>the</strong> individualhuman being <strong>to</strong> understand and orient himselfin a still more complex world. Knowledge and sciencehave constituent roles in <strong>the</strong> risk society because<strong>the</strong> risks we are subjected <strong>to</strong> are <strong>of</strong>ten invisible orincomprehensible for <strong>the</strong> man in <strong>the</strong> street. Thiscould be, for instance, <strong>to</strong>xic foodstuffs and environmentalpollution which only expert knowledge andspecial <strong>the</strong>ories, measuring instruments andtechniques can uncover.Beck is aware that risks in <strong>the</strong>mselves are nothingnew. The new in this is, he claims, that risks are createdby society and <strong>the</strong>refore <strong>the</strong>y are no longer justsomething that nature subjects us <strong>to</strong> at random, suchas earthquakes or strokes <strong>of</strong> lightning. When, for instance,<strong>the</strong> Rhine overflows, it is not just a consequence<strong>of</strong> heavy rain, it is also because streams in <strong>the</strong>area have been straightened out and <strong>the</strong> wetlandsthat were formerly capable <strong>of</strong> retaining large amounts<strong>of</strong> water have been drained, and perhaps even coveredover with asphalt, causing <strong>the</strong> water <strong>to</strong> drain fasterand thus flood <strong>the</strong> river all at once.While <strong>the</strong> word risk formerly had a ring <strong>of</strong> courageand adventure, <strong>to</strong>day, it makes us think <strong>of</strong> self-destruction.The risks <strong>of</strong> our times pose a global threat according<strong>to</strong> Beck, and <strong>the</strong>y are <strong>the</strong> consequence <strong>of</strong><strong>the</strong> exponentially growing productive forces in <strong>the</strong>modernization process. Modernization has becomeits own enemy.According <strong>to</strong> Beck <strong>the</strong>re is a connection between<strong>the</strong> production <strong>of</strong> risks and decision-making. Thereason for this is that <strong>the</strong> socially created naturaldisasters are dependent on <strong>the</strong> decisions we make.This means that we make greater demands on ourdecision-makers’ knowledge and know-how than everbefore. Thus politics achieve new content and newmeaning – it becomes more technocratic as wellas geared <strong>to</strong>wards avoiding problems, but it alsobecomes more exposed <strong>to</strong> spontaneously arisingrumours. Therefore Beck thinks than one consequence<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> risk society is that good argumentswill determine success, cf. <strong>the</strong> section on illusionpreparedness.58) Ulrich Beck, Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity (translated from <strong>the</strong> German by Mark Ritter) (1986; London: Sage, 1992)28 R E A C T I O N S T O T H E P A C E O F C H A N G E


Annexe 3:Judgement StalledGlobal trade is increasing significantly which meansthat it is impossible <strong>to</strong> keep track <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> origin <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>things we surround ourselves with, or <strong>the</strong> food weeat. Many foodstuffs cross five or six borders before<strong>the</strong>y reach <strong>the</strong> consumer.Discussions <strong>of</strong> salmonella DT 104, taste, ecologyand animal welfare have in <strong>the</strong> course <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> past five<strong>to</strong> ten years become daily fare at <strong>the</strong> dinner table.We may taste and smell as much as we please, butwhe<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong> level <strong>of</strong> pesticides is above <strong>the</strong> normalvalue, or <strong>the</strong>re are heavy metals in <strong>the</strong> pota<strong>to</strong>es orgenetically engineered soy beans in <strong>the</strong> sauce arematters that are hard for us <strong>to</strong> say.Buying <strong>to</strong>ma<strong>to</strong>es in <strong>the</strong> supermarket is an example<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> problems our judgement is faced with. The reddest,largest <strong>to</strong>ma<strong>to</strong>es with <strong>the</strong> best keeping qualitiesare perhaps those we put ourselves most at risk byeating. (The Danish Food and Drug Administrationclaims that as a general rule <strong>the</strong> more food is processedand <strong>the</strong> longer its shelf-life is, <strong>the</strong> more additivesit contains). Radiation, crop sprays and geneticengineering. The consumers must ei<strong>the</strong>r ignore <strong>the</strong>ambiguous expert statements or <strong>the</strong> evidence <strong>of</strong><strong>the</strong>ir own senses.There is not even clarity in <strong>the</strong> areas where researchprojects have been carried out over severalyears. Experts continue <strong>to</strong> discover more, or emphasizemore sides <strong>to</strong> this, thus shifting <strong>the</strong> focus: Evenafter many years’ growth in ecological productionand trade, we should think that ecology would bebetter for <strong>the</strong> environment and for human beingswho could s<strong>to</strong>p eating fertilizers and crop sprays.But oh no. This is far from <strong>the</strong> truth. As recent asFebruary 1, 2000, research pr<strong>of</strong>essor at <strong>the</strong> DanishRoyal Veterinary and Agricultural University pointed<strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> fact that ecologically grown plants are morestressed than sprayed ones, and that stressed (!)plants secrete secondary carcinogens and that <strong>the</strong>recould be no doubt that a great deal <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> occurrences<strong>of</strong> cancer in <strong>the</strong> population is caused by <strong>the</strong>sesecondary carcinogens.So what is one <strong>to</strong> believe in <strong>the</strong>se matters <strong>of</strong>health and optimum methods <strong>of</strong> cultivation?And concerning environmentally-safe materials:A so-called “environmentally-safe” <strong>to</strong>xin, glyphosate,which is supposed <strong>to</strong> break down before seepingin<strong>to</strong> our ground water reserves was during 1999found in several ground water wells. 59)A career for rumoursIn January 2000, a s<strong>to</strong>ry about <strong>the</strong> farmers and wadingbirds indigenous <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> marshland <strong>of</strong> Sou<strong>the</strong>rn Jutlandmade <strong>the</strong> Danish news. The birds are disappearingfrom <strong>the</strong> area and Danish environmental organizationswant <strong>the</strong> Danish state <strong>to</strong> take charge <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>area because <strong>the</strong>y think that intensive farming hascaused <strong>the</strong> birds <strong>to</strong> disappear. The farmers claim that<strong>the</strong> government <strong>of</strong>ficials are at fault. The NationalForest and Nature Agency, Denmark, acknowledgesthat farmers have taken good care <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> marshlandfor 500 years, but that <strong>the</strong>y are now ruining it withintensive farming. The farmers hold <strong>the</strong> oppositeview and claim <strong>to</strong> be experienced and have an interestin looking after <strong>the</strong> marshland including <strong>the</strong> birds,and that <strong>the</strong> problems are <strong>the</strong>refore caused by <strong>the</strong>heavy-handed attempts <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> state <strong>to</strong> “re-establish”<strong>the</strong> area, which have resulted in a drainage <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>fields.The Danish Agricultural Advisory Centre foundthat <strong>the</strong> environmental organizations and <strong>the</strong> authoritieshad <strong>to</strong>o little documentation for <strong>the</strong>ir strategy(getting <strong>the</strong> birds back by removing <strong>the</strong> farmers’cattle). And now <strong>the</strong> case is up in <strong>the</strong> Parliamentwaiting for <strong>the</strong> politicians <strong>to</strong> make a decision!Former principal <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Danish Forestry CollegeErik Oksbjerg takes this fur<strong>the</strong>r and claims thatcaring for nature has gone <strong>to</strong>o far, politically andfinancially. His opinion about a limitation <strong>of</strong> fertilizersis that “far more nitrogen should be used in <strong>the</strong>fields in order <strong>to</strong> establish a <strong>to</strong>psoil capable <strong>of</strong> withstanding<strong>the</strong> percolation <strong>of</strong> rainwater. Instead welisten <strong>to</strong> Dutch and American fanatics …The DanishSociety for <strong>the</strong> Conservation <strong>of</strong> Nature and <strong>the</strong>Ministry <strong>of</strong> Environment and Energy thrive and growon pending disasters…sensational untruths.” 60) Inconnection with <strong>the</strong>se views, Erik Oksbjerg’s positionin <strong>the</strong> debate <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> endangered biodiversity andwhat <strong>to</strong> do about it is “that as soon as <strong>the</strong> tiniestthing is missing, be it a plant or an insect, all environmentalorganizations go on red alert…”C O P E N H A G E N I N S T I T U T E F O R F U T U R E S S T U D I E S59) Article entitled “Miljøsikker gift i vandet” [Environmentally-Safe Toxin Found in Drinking Water] in Danish newspaper Berlingske Tidende,January 11, 2000.60) Danish newspaper Berlingske Tidende, September 28, 1999.M E M B E R S R E P O R T 1 / 2 0 0 029


Appendix with diagramsMil43413937353331292725Number <strong>of</strong> passengers USA-Europe, 1992-1999This diagram shows passenger traffic between <strong>the</strong> US and Europe. The annual growth rate is in per cent and shows that from 1992 <strong>to</strong> 1993 <strong>the</strong> number <strong>of</strong> passengers went up by 5,2 %.It is possible <strong>to</strong> deduct two things from this diagram:1) It is very clear that <strong>the</strong> number <strong>of</strong> passengers is increasing (28-42 mil)2) The annual growth rate is also increasing, i.e. <strong>the</strong> development is accelerating.Source: International Aviation DevelopmentsAnnual growth rate5,2% 5,0% 5,6% 7,0% 9,4% 9,9%1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998Diagram 2GNP per capita in US$ Year 0 – 199525000The World20000The Western World15000The Rest <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> World10000500000 500 1000 1500 2000Diagram 3Source: Angus Maddison: “Moni<strong>to</strong>ring <strong>the</strong> World Economy,” 1995, and Marc Faber: “The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report,” 1999Mil.DKK25000GNP per capita in 1990 US$Denmark France <strong>the</strong> US India Japan200001500010000500001820 1870 1900 1913 1950 1973 1992Source: The OECD, Moni<strong>to</strong>ring <strong>the</strong> World Economy, 1820-1992Diagram 4: Economic Growth30 R E A C T I O N S T O T H E P A C E O F C H A N G E


C O P E N H A G E N I N S T I T U T E F O R F U T U R E S S T U D I E SM E M B E R S R E P O R T 1 / 2 0 0 031

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