Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...

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ditions. Consider the following paradigm shifts, and note how we have alwaysasked the same question but sometimes we get a different answer. This does notnecessarily totally overturn the old paradigm but limits its applicability. The complementarityprinciple allows us to see how the limiting old paradigm is containedwithin and complementary to the new paradigm. It is only by using thecomplementarity principle that we can comfortably use both the old and the newparadigm.Old: The earth is flat.New: The earth is round.Complementarity Condition: When the area represented on a chart issmall enough to approximate the portion of the sphere as a plane, a mapis almost as accurate as a globe.Old: The sun revolves around the earth.New: The earth revolves around the sun.Complementarity Condition: When observing the heavens by eye, theepicycles of Ptolemy provide calculations that are almost the same asthose using the methods of Copernicus and Keppler.Old: Atoms are indivisible.New: Atoms are divisible.Complementarity Condition: See Bohr and Heisenberg...Therefore, in understanding any paradigm shift, one must go back to theunderlying assumptions of both the old and new paradigms to understand how thenew paradigm can provide useful answers where the old one is limited by itsassumptions. And we can only be comfortable when we can see where they showcomplementarity. As Kuhn indicated, “The decision to reject one paradigm isalways simultaneously the decision to accept another, and the judgment leadingto that decision involves the comparison of the paradigms with nature and witheach other.” 18In science our knowledge of the world depends on our ability to model it interms of a paradigm that supports observations and allows testable experimentsfrom them. In intelligence our knowledge of the world—or our orientation—depends on our ability to understand it in a way that can support observations andreports and allow actionable decisions from them.18 Kuhn, 77.26
In the Industrial Age we based our thinking about intelligence—directly orindirectly because of what we learned in school—on Newtonian scientific methods.If Newtonian science is irrelevant for modeling nuclear physics, organicchemistry, biology, and computer science, then the answers we get by Newtonianmethods to questions in those fields will also be irrelevant. More importantly,human organizations and cultures are biological, and if we are going to modelthem in an actionable way, we need to forget Newton and build a New Sciencebased on quantum principles.//ILLUMINATION■ The previous discussion assumes interaction with both the external and internalenvironment. Now, let us assume, for whatever reason or combination ofcircumstances, that we design a command and control system that hindersinteraction with the external environment. This implies a focus inward, ratherthan outward.■ Picking up from this idea, we observe from Darwin that:❏ The environment selects.❏ Ability or inability to interact and adapt to exigencies of environmentselect one in or out.■ Furthermore, according to the Godel Proof, the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle,and the Second Law of Thermodynamics:❏ One cannot determine the character or nature of a system within itself.❏ Moreover, attempts to do so lead to confusion and disorder. Why?Because in the “real world” the environment intrudes (my view).■ Now, by applying the ideas of Darwin, the Second Law, Heisenberg, andGodel to Clausewitz one can see that:He who can generate many non-cooperative centers of gravity magnifiesfriction. Why? Many non-cooperative centers of gravity within asystem restrict interaction and adaptability of a system with its surroundings,thereby leading to a focus inward (i.e., within itself),which in turn generates confusion and disorder, which impedes vigorousor directed activity, hence, by definition, magnifies friction orentropy. 19//19 Col Boyd.27
Page 1 and 2: Joint Military Intelligence College
Page 3 and 4: The Joint Military Intelligence Col
Page 5 and 6: CONTENTSAcknowledgements. . . . . .
Page 7 and 8: appreciate other distinctive elemen
Page 9 and 10: In addition to his promoting the in
Page 11 and 12: ADDITIONAL COMMENTARIES:Warning Ana
Page 13 and 14: “butter now” to build a strong
Page 15 and 16: orist groups half-a-world away mean
Page 17 and 18: intelligence and requires exhaustiv
Page 19 and 20: Chapter 2FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
Page 21 and 22: decades before the conflict when a
Page 23 and 24: or pieces of information which were
Page 25 and 26: probably been given too little atte
Page 27 and 28: warfare the army that could bring t
Page 29 and 30: Chapter 4PARADIGM SHIFTS — WHEN T
Page 31 and 32: NorthDakotaMoscowNow on the map bel
Page 33: line proponent is likely to say,
Page 37 and 38: Let me explain by comparing the New
Page 39 and 40: ight now we have a position (potent
Page 41 and 42: The take-home message here is that
Page 43 and 44: degrees and one I took six minutes
Page 45 and 46: MESSAGE■ Suppress tendency to bui
Page 47 and 48: Example: I see a large mammal with
Page 49 and 50: In WMD analysis, these distinctions
Page 51 and 52: Chapter 6TOWARD NOVEL INTELLIGENCE
Page 53 and 54: Example 1 — An 8th Grade Science
Page 55 and 56: Information Retrieval is Built on L
Page 57 and 58: to extract all the entities or a me
Page 59 and 60: That means that unless own ship man
Page 61 and 62: Chapter 7FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
Page 63: analysis. A bigger database full of
Page 66 and 67: viduals subordinate their decisionm
Page 68 and 69: environment. In a world of limited
Page 70 and 71: account for any deviations from equ
Page 72 and 73: In summary:■ When the world will
Page 74 and 75: progress of that plan. If change is
Page 76 and 77: have been reached. “If they do A,
Page 78 and 79: Chapter 8MODELING THE DECISION CYCL
Page 80 and 81: Efforts to date to use information
Page 82 and 83: Assumptions—From Industrial-Age T
Page 84 and 85:
From Thinking Tactically to Thinkin
Page 86 and 87:
of enemy forces and that he prepare
Page 88 and 89:
Modeling Ourselves—How Can We Reo
Page 90 and 91:
Chapter 9MODELING THE TARGETHow do
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systems is that they are organized
Page 94 and 95:
ing “power” plotted vertically
Page 96 and 97:
Biological systems extract energy a
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NationalCommandAuthorityD ecision E
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❏ Identifying and tracking the fi
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There are two basic kinds of method
Page 104 and 105:
The two kinds of models are complem
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Nation A$$Nation BMAPWhere?How?Targ
Page 108 and 109:
ORGANIZATION CHARTWho?Why?TARGET NA
Page 110 and 111:
Med.line (med’lin) vt. -lined, -l
Page 112 and 113:
Tracking a BW or Dual-Use Biotechno
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The redundancy of the detailed kind
Page 116 and 117:
This followsStage of Weapon Life Cy
Page 118 and 119:
■ Ceremonial occasions can be ver
Page 120 and 121:
Massive Data?” However, the Case
Page 122 and 123:
When the first pass at the known en
Page 124 and 125:
Multidimensional Analysis for Strat
Page 126 and 127:
at an appropriate place in the time
Page 128 and 129:
When Col Boyd formulated the Decisi
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problem, warning involves an in-dep
Page 132 and 133:
■ Observe the incoming reporting.
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In the past—through the Industria
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FROM HYPOTHESIS TO ASSESSMENTUsing
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evidence. n. ... 5. Grounds for bel
Page 140 and 141:
suggested guidance and models of Ma
Page 142 and 143:
Using Homology Searching in Intelli
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ways can be identified in this way
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❏ Human intervention needed to ve
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Input = (1) Analyst Input of METATE
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Chapter 11MODELING OURSELVESHow can
Page 152 and 153:
When young children play soccer, th
Page 154 and 155:
To make matters worse, even the col
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VERY NICEBut, simply stated, what d
Page 158 and 159:
From Software-Driven Tools Usage to
Page 160 and 161:
The Physical WorldSense 1O O D AThe
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messenger to and from the edges of
Page 164 and 165:
The organization of the IC in this
Page 166 and 167:
Chapter 12GETTING THERE FROM HEREWe
Page 168 and 169:
From...Bigger Faster Technology,Fig
Page 170 and 171:
Chapter 13TOWARD AN INFORMATION-AGE
Page 172 and 173:
Robert Fulton sailed the steamshipC
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tion, and it followed that they wer
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drawn from a generation that thinks
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mal or cultural population in terms
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■ The IC needs to hire enough IT
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By learning the lessons of Cynthia
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INDEX3x5 card deck 51,134,137,142,1
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Heisenberg, Werner 21, 111Heisenber
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OODA Cycle 12, 38, 167Actor 62,102a
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WMD 14-15, 81CBRNE 81, 114dual use
Page 192 and 193:
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