Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...

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Therefore, we need to rethink our intelligence methodologies and tools builtfor the Industrial Age using Newtonian thinking and replace them with ones builtfor the Information Age built using quantum thinking. The core of Industrial-Ageintelligence was assessment of capabilities. The core of Information-Age intelligencemust be assessment of intent.//MESSAGEReferring back to our previous discussion, we can say: orientation is aninteractive process of many-sided implicit cross-referencing projections,empathies, correlations, and rejections that is shaped by and shapes theinterplay of genetic heritage, cultural tradition, previous experiences,and unfolding circumstances. 23//Assessment of capabilities was built on understanding and identifyingthings—weapons and the facilities that make them. Assessment of intent must bebuilt on understanding people as individuals and the organizations, countries, andcultures they build—for it is people who build WMD.23 Col Boyd.43
Chapter 6TOWARD NOVEL INTELLIGENCE FROM MASSIVE DATAData can be “massive” both in quantity and type. A major problem inexploiting the massive quantities of data available to the IntelligenceCommunity is the lack of a historical baseline and a lack of librariansand curators to organize and tag the data for easy retrieval. This meansthat we must develop methods for rapid writing of classified history andfor systematic data archiving. Data can also be “massive” in its dimensionality.Collecting and analyzing massive amounts of data will not providevalid assessments unless the dimensionality of the data reflects thedimensionality of the problem.We must reconcile ourselves to the fact that the Community is unlikely to hirehuman librarians and curators to support analysts in the way that other information-dependentorganizations support their researchers. This means that we mustdevelop methods to bypass the need for librarians and curators by automatingthose functions, that is, developing computer tools for data archiving andretrieval.Data can also be “massive” in their dimensionality. Collecting and analyzingmassive amounts of data will not provide valid assessments if the dimensionalityof the data does not reflect the dimensionality of the problem. Moreover, analyticalmethods are required to assess both current position and projected intentions.Methodologies that hope to project target intentions into the future must be basedon data collection for a longer time period into the past; current intelligence datacannot be used to build warning intelligence.The analyst is swamped with data on a day-to-day basis. There is so muchinformation out there that too little time exists to be able to use it to answer thequestions that need to be answered. We need to find ways to be able to wadethrough the massive amount of data “out there” and use it to find the “nuggets”we need to answer those questions. A current project funded by the AdvancedResearch Development Activity to address that issue is call NIMD, or “NovelIntelligence from Massive Data.”The NIMD charter suggests that “massive” data are those that are either toolarge in quantity or in too heterogeneous a format for us to be able to use effectively.I suggest that this well-intentioned answer and the methodology used topursue it is in fact a straight line, flat-earth approach using Newtonian Industrial-Agethinking, whereas we need a great circle spherical-earth approach45
Page 1 and 2: Joint Military Intelligence College
Page 3 and 4: The Joint Military Intelligence Col
Page 5 and 6: CONTENTSAcknowledgements. . . . . .
Page 7 and 8: appreciate other distinctive elemen
Page 9 and 10: In addition to his promoting the in
Page 11 and 12: ADDITIONAL COMMENTARIES:Warning Ana
Page 13 and 14: “butter now” to build a strong
Page 15 and 16: orist groups half-a-world away mean
Page 17 and 18: intelligence and requires exhaustiv
Page 19 and 20: Chapter 2FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
Page 21 and 22: decades before the conflict when a
Page 23 and 24: or pieces of information which were
Page 25 and 26: probably been given too little atte
Page 27 and 28: warfare the army that could bring t
Page 29 and 30: Chapter 4PARADIGM SHIFTS — WHEN T
Page 31 and 32: NorthDakotaMoscowNow on the map bel
Page 33 and 34: line proponent is likely to say,
Page 35 and 36: In the Industrial Age we based our
Page 37 and 38: Let me explain by comparing the New
Page 39 and 40: ight now we have a position (potent
Page 41 and 42: The take-home message here is that
Page 43 and 44: degrees and one I took six minutes
Page 45 and 46: MESSAGE■ Suppress tendency to bui
Page 47 and 48: Example: I see a large mammal with
Page 49: In WMD analysis, these distinctions
Page 53 and 54: Example 1 — An 8th Grade Science
Page 55 and 56: Information Retrieval is Built on L
Page 57 and 58: to extract all the entities or a me
Page 59 and 60: That means that unless own ship man
Page 61 and 62: Chapter 7FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
Page 63: analysis. A bigger database full of
Page 66 and 67: viduals subordinate their decisionm
Page 68 and 69: environment. In a world of limited
Page 70 and 71: account for any deviations from equ
Page 72 and 73: In summary:■ When the world will
Page 74 and 75: progress of that plan. If change is
Page 76 and 77: have been reached. “If they do A,
Page 78 and 79: Chapter 8MODELING THE DECISION CYCL
Page 80 and 81: Efforts to date to use information
Page 82 and 83: Assumptions—From Industrial-Age T
Page 84 and 85: From Thinking Tactically to Thinkin
Page 86 and 87: of enemy forces and that he prepare
Page 88 and 89: Modeling Ourselves—How Can We Reo
Page 90 and 91: Chapter 9MODELING THE TARGETHow do
Page 92 and 93: systems is that they are organized
Page 94 and 95: ing “power” plotted vertically
Page 96 and 97: Biological systems extract energy a
Page 98 and 99: NationalCommandAuthorityD ecision E
Page 100 and 101:
❏ Identifying and tracking the fi
Page 102 and 103:
There are two basic kinds of method
Page 104 and 105:
The two kinds of models are complem
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Nation A$$Nation BMAPWhere?How?Targ
Page 108 and 109:
ORGANIZATION CHARTWho?Why?TARGET NA
Page 110 and 111:
Med.line (med’lin) vt. -lined, -l
Page 112 and 113:
Tracking a BW or Dual-Use Biotechno
Page 114 and 115:
The redundancy of the detailed kind
Page 116 and 117:
This followsStage of Weapon Life Cy
Page 118 and 119:
■ Ceremonial occasions can be ver
Page 120 and 121:
Massive Data?” However, the Case
Page 122 and 123:
When the first pass at the known en
Page 124 and 125:
Multidimensional Analysis for Strat
Page 126 and 127:
at an appropriate place in the time
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When Col Boyd formulated the Decisi
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problem, warning involves an in-dep
Page 132 and 133:
■ Observe the incoming reporting.
Page 134 and 135:
In the past—through the Industria
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FROM HYPOTHESIS TO ASSESSMENTUsing
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evidence. n. ... 5. Grounds for bel
Page 140 and 141:
suggested guidance and models of Ma
Page 142 and 143:
Using Homology Searching in Intelli
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ways can be identified in this way
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❏ Human intervention needed to ve
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Input = (1) Analyst Input of METATE
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Chapter 11MODELING OURSELVESHow can
Page 152 and 153:
When young children play soccer, th
Page 154 and 155:
To make matters worse, even the col
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VERY NICEBut, simply stated, what d
Page 158 and 159:
From Software-Driven Tools Usage to
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The Physical WorldSense 1O O D AThe
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messenger to and from the edges of
Page 164 and 165:
The organization of the IC in this
Page 166 and 167:
Chapter 12GETTING THERE FROM HEREWe
Page 168 and 169:
From...Bigger Faster Technology,Fig
Page 170 and 171:
Chapter 13TOWARD AN INFORMATION-AGE
Page 172 and 173:
Robert Fulton sailed the steamshipC
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tion, and it followed that they wer
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drawn from a generation that thinks
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mal or cultural population in terms
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■ The IC needs to hire enough IT
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By learning the lessons of Cynthia
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INDEX3x5 card deck 51,134,137,142,1
Page 186 and 187:
Heisenberg, Werner 21, 111Heisenber
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OODA Cycle 12, 38, 167Actor 62,102a
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WMD 14-15, 81CBRNE 81, 114dual use
Page 192 and 193:
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