Nuclear Superiority or Minimum Deterrence - Nuclear Force Posture ...

posse.gatech.edu

Nuclear Superiority or Minimum Deterrence - Nuclear Force Posture ...

the Soviet Union from the dataset and reestimated the models using only the observationsamong nonsuperpowers. In all of the above tests, the core results were unaltered.Nuclear superiority and Nuclear ratio were negative and statistically significant in eachand every model. The core results are not being driven by any single country observation.Discussion and ConclusionThis article examined the relationship between nuclear posture and militarizedchallenges. We found that states that enjoy nuclear superiority over their opponents areless likely to be the targets of militarized disputes. This finding held under a variety ofmodel specifications and robustness tests. We derived a new theoretical implication ofnuclear deterrence theory to account for the observed relationship between nuclearsuperiority and deterrence success. We argued that a nuclear exchange with a nuclearsuperior state is potentially more devastating than a major war with other states, raisingthe expected costs of challenging a nuclear superior state. On average, states withnuclear superiority over their rivals are less likely to be challenged. In other words,nuclear superiority over potential opponents enhances the efficacy of a state’s nucleardeterrent.We find some support for the idea that a minimum nuclear posture deters militarychallenges, but this effect disappears when one controls for the nuclear balance betweenstates. This indicates that the possession of a minimum nuclear deterrent reduces theprobability of being challenged by nonnuclear weapons states or by nuclear weaponstates with smaller nuclear arsenals, but that it does not decrease one’s chances of beingchallenged by nuclear weapon states with larger nuclear arsenals. The findings suggest29

More magazines by this user
Similar magazines