Status for the COP15 process:On the way to a new goodclimate agreement?Ingeborg GjærumNatur og UngdomYoung Friends of the Earth Norway
What is a good agreement?• Fair and ambitious– Keeps temperature well below 2C– Burdensharing:• Historic responsibility• Economic strength to contribute
Main issues• Mitigation– How big reductions – done by who?• Finance– Adaptation og mitigation in non-annex 1countries• What kind of agreeement?– How big reductions – done by who?
2C ?GloballyAnnex INon-Annex I2020Emissions shouldpeak by 2000-201525-40 % reductionfrom 1990-levelSubstantial deviationfrom referancescenario in Latin-America, the MiddleEast, East-Asia andcentral Asia205050-85 % reductionfrom 2000-level80-95 % recutionfrom 1990-levelSubstantial deviationfrom referencescenario in all regions
Proposed targets forAnnex 1-countries
What will the consequenses be?Kilde: Rogelj, Hare, Nabel, Macey, Schaeffer, Markmann og Meinshausen. ”Halfway toCopenhagen, no way to 2C” Nature Reports Climate Change (2009) doi:10.1038/climate.2009.57
Finance• Enormous needs ( > $160 billions/year)• Good discussions on how to do it, butwho will put money on the table?• Disagreement on management andcontrol• ”Double counting”?
What kind of agreement?• Bali: ”Agreed outcome”• Possibilities:– Changes in the Kyoto protocol– A new protocol in addition to or as areplacement to Kyoto– Less binding decisions in addition toor as a replacement to Kyoto
Summary• Mitigation targets for Kyoto-countries?• What about the US?• How big loopholes will there be?• What actions are the developingcountries going to do?• How – and not least – how much aredeveloping countries going to pay?• What should be done to stopdeforestation?• How binding will the agreement be?
We have everything weneed exceptpolitical willAl Gore