Capacity growth

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Capacity growth

Capacity RequirementsMr Tihomir TodorovAirspace DesignCooperative Network Design


What impacts Capacity?• Diverse User Requirements– Commercial, military & general airtraffic• The Airspace structure– ATS routes & their conditions of use– Sectors & sector capacities– De-conflicted traffic• The ATM System– Technology (controller tools,flexible/dynamic system)– Infrastructure (ability to grow)• Air Traffic Controllers– where & when needed


What have we achieved?1999 2008Between 1999 and 2008• Traffic growth: 27%• Capacity growth: 47% (PRU* effective capacity indicator)• Average enroute delay reduction: 53%• Average distance saving per flight: 2.2 kmSummer data (May to October inclusive).*Performance Review Unit


Fully Transparent ProcessPrevious YearAssessmentNetwork Operations Planfor coming SummerLocal 5 yearCapacity Plans(LCIP/LSSIP)Consolidated Planfor Medium-TermACC CapacityBaselinesCyclical AnnualProcess5 year CapacityRequirement Profiles2008 2009 2009 - 2013 2010 - 2013


Fully Coordinated ProcessClose coordination:- with Air Navigation Service Providers• 20-30 bilateral visits per year- with Aircraft Operators• participation to airline and airline user group meetings- within the Agency•CFMU• Airport Operations & EnvironmentExisting working arrangements maintain awareness/acceptance• Capacity Planning Task Force• Director Operations meetings• Operations Coordination Group• Stakeholder Consultation Group• Provisional Council• Air Navigation Services Board• Performance Review Commission


Capacity Planning & Monitoring – a Cyclical ProcessWinterPerformance Analysis& Consolidation ofPlans for comingSummer and next4 yearsCommonToolsNEVAC/SAAMSpringTraffic Forecast& CapacityRequirementProfile CalculationSTATFORAutumnCapacity PlanningBilateral meetingsPlans > LSSIPAirspace &DemandData (DDR)Mid-SummerCapacity BaselineAssessment


Consolidated Capacity Planning Process


ACC Capacity BaselinesAgreedBaselineACCESSPeak 3 Peak 1 NEVACR. CASA200747 34 39 48 48 48The ACC capacity baseline is measured usingdifferent methodologies• Is the ACC delay producing - or not?• Do we want to calculate potential ordelivered capacity?2008BaselineTo measure delivered or effective capacity:Reverse CASA* – used for delay-producers, aniterative processAnalysis of peakSummer referenceperiodACCESS - used for non delay-producers, using actual sector configurationopening schemes, capacity data and traffic data - traffic is increased untilsufficient delay is produced to run Reverse CASANEVAC – used to measure potential capacity – assuming all sectors are openand operating at their declared capacities with no ATFM regulationsBaseline capacity indicators measure changes from year to year and provide a referencepoint for the profiles* Computer Assisted Slot Allocation


NEVAC Capacity Baseline


ATM Network Capacity Planning5 year capacity requirement profiles for each European ACC…Profiles (hourly movements and % increase over 2008) - Baseline scenario2008 baseline Traffic2010 2011 2012 2013 2014High 52 8% 54 13% 59 23% 60 25% 63 31%Reference 49 2% 51 6% 54 13% 55 15% 57 19%48Low 48 0% 48 0% 49 2% 50 4% 51 6%Current 48 0% 49 2% 51 6% 52 8% 53 10%XXXX CTA - Reference capacity profile and alternative scenarios65with alternativescenarios…60Capacity profile (movements per hour)5550454035…on which tobase the LSSIPcapacity plan302007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142010-2014 Reference Capacity Profile 49 51 54 55 57Capacity Profile - Current Routes 48 49 51 52 53Capacity Profile - High 52 54 59 60 63Capacity Profile - Low 48 48 49 50 51Capacity Baseline 47 482009 - 2013 Plan 50 52 53 55 57


What do we have to achieve in future?2009 forecast issignificantly lowerthan previousforecastsRecovery to previousgrowth levels notforeseen in thisplanning cycleBetween 2008 and 2014:• Expected traffic growth: 11 % STATFOR baseline Medium-Term Forecast (MTF)*• Capacity growth required: 23 %• Summer Enroute delay target: 1 minute per flight• Flight efficiency target: 2 km per flight per year*STATFOR MTF Feb 2009: Low Growth 0 % High Growth +22 %Performance targets agreed by the Provisional Council


Capacity Increases Required 2014 v 200823-35% additionalcapacity needed inEurope between 2008-2014 (from 27300 to34000-37000 flights perday)Covers existing shortfallAND expected trafficgrowthAgreed to be used asthe basis for localcapacity plans- Detailed capacity profile data distributed to all ANSPs- New profiles discussed at Capacity Planning Task Force meeting each Spring- Intensive consultation and wide consensus


ATM Airspace & System Changes 2010-2013


Integrated and interactive support:Airspace Design and Network CapacitySAAMNEVAC100908024 HOURS SECTOR ACTIVITY(1H/1 M n) 25 IterationsCAPAN70No.Flights or Percentage60504030201000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25HoursFLIGHT ENTRY RATE RADAR CONTROLLER PLANNING CONTROLLER


Airspace & Capacity Tools: SAAMSAAM*Airspace modeller enabling quick analysis and visualisation ofroute network and sectorisation changes with current or futuretraffic data at local, sub-regional or network level.Route network & airspaceoptimisation, analysis & presentation• Strategic traffic flow organisation• Powerful 'what-if?' function• Analysis of sector controller workload• Prepared scenarios can beexported to fast- orreal-time simulation*System for Assignment & Analysis at Macroscopic level


Airspace & Capacity Tools: NEVACNEVAC*• Evaluate changes to sector capacities and configurations on overall ACC capacityand capacity of the ATM network• Identify bottleneck sectors and optimise sector configurations• Create virtual ACCs and evaluate airspace reorganisation options• Perform detailed analysis of demand structure, network interactions, configurationsuitability, saturation and ATFM delay – all of which affect ACC capacity• Measure protection & penalisation network interactions*Network Evaluation & Visualisation of ACC Capacity


Airspace & Capacity Tools: CAPANCAPAN = Capacity AnalyserMethod to determine the capacity of an ATC sector by using theAir Traffic Controller WorkloadCAPAN Uses Fast Time Simulation techniques and theRAMS Fast Time Simulation EngineWhat can CAPAN provide?100Detailed and Precise Analysis of:• Sector Capacities• Sector Configurations• Route Structures• ATC/ATM procedures• ATC and ATM Research and DevelopmentNo.Flights or Percentage908070605040302010024 HOURS SECTOR ACTIVITY(1H/1 Mn) 25 Iterations0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25HoursFLIGHT ENTRY RATE RADAR CONTROLLER PLANNING CONTROLLER


Airspace & Capacity Tools: CAPANKOFEREZY770N A319 LGAV LIMCEFL380 XFL340ROTARSouth SectorWest SectorFL380First CallLast CallDescentClearanceFlight LevelVerificationFL340Flight InfoConflictSearchFlight InfoConflictSearchFirst CallLast Call08h21 08h38 08h45 08h59 09h11 09h15 09h16


Airspace & Capacity Tools: CAPAN120Sector Generic - Organisation X999 Flights in the 24H Traffic Sample (20 Iterations)11010090No.Flights or Percentage807060504030201000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23HoursFlights EC (%) PC (%) MaxA3


Airspace & Capacity Tools: CAPAN140Sector Generic - Organisation X555 Flights in the 24H Traffic Sample (20 Iterations)SectorCapacityWorkloads (Percentage)70y = 0.0125x 2 + 0.766xR 2 = 0.978570 % Workload50/H00 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55No.FlightsEC (%) PC (%) Poly. (EC (%))


Main Strategic Planning Issues‣ New ATM systems/New ACCs/Transfer of areas of responsibility• 14 European ACCs over the planning cycle• Significant network synchronisation and coordination issues• Detailed planning needed during each phase (simulation, network effect)‣ Accurate short/medium term operational plans• To enable consolidated network scenarios• Full support from the Agency‣ Addressing staffing issues• Clear view on sector configurations and opening schemes‣ Implementation of improved airspace design solutions• Synchronisation of major ATM system changes• Efforts in areas where there are no major system changes‣ Increase ATC sector capacities – use existing spare capacity‣ Enhance ASM/FUA – no sterile airspace‣ Flexible ATFCM – use available capacity


6.0Average enroute delay per flight(min)5.04.03.02.01.00.020132012Main ChallengeSummer Traffic, Delay & Capacity Evolution3500030000250002000015000100005000Movements per day02000199920012002200320042005200620072008200920102011Traffic Capacity PC delay target Av ER delayTo shrink the capacity gap –especially in times of global recession


Capacity & Efficiency Trade-Off• Preferred Option‣ Shortest distance‣ Lowest cost‣ Least delayFlight EfficiencyOptimised NetworkAdditional route segmentsMore conditional routesFree Route airspace


The Flight Efficiency Plan (FEP)A joint IATA/EUROCONTROL/CANSOinitiative to save fuel and emissions:1. Enhance European enroute airspacedesign2. Improve airspace utilisation androute availability3. Efficient TMA design and utilisation4. Optimise airport operations5. Improve performance awarenessIATA: International Air Transport AssociationCANSO: Civil Air Navigation Services Organisation


Flight Efficiency Indicators


EUROCONTROL ContactThe Capacity Enhancement Function:• Capacity Assessment & Planning Guidance• Network Operations Plan for coming Summer season• European Medium-Term ATM Network Capacity Plan Assessment• Network Operations Report for previous yearCapacity Enhancement Function, Network Development:stephanie.vincent@eurocontrol.int+32 2 729 3407Head of Operational Integration, Network Development:razvan.bucuriou@eurocontrol.intwww.eurocontrol.int/cefwww.eurocontrol.int/saamwww.eurocontrol.int/nevac

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