Average Annual Change in Households - UrbanSim

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Average Annual Change in Households - UrbanSim

CountyPilotModelsLearningUrbanSimInteractionwithTransCADmodelGridcell-based Regional Database & Model


Detroit


“Typical development”“Compact development”No infill if structure value > land valueMaximum Master Plan Density


“Typical development”“Compact development”No infill if structure value > land valueMaximum Master Plan Density


“Typical development”“Compact development”No infill if structure value > land valueMaximum Master Plan Density


RegionalmodelestimationShorttermforecastLocalreviewLongtermforecastAdoption


Average Annual Change in Households,1990-2005 (-3,422 to 1,113)Decrease, more than 20 loss (10)!Little change, 19 loss to 20 gain (75)!Moderate increase, 21 to 70 gain (79)!Large increase, 70 to 150 gain (30)!Very large increase, more than 150 gain (35)!


Average Annual Change in Households,2005-2020 (-3,313 to 327)Decrease, more than 20 loss (9)!Little change, 19 loss to 20 gain (147)!Moderate increase, 21 to 70 gain (53)!Large increase, 70 to 150 gain (15)!Very large increase, more than 150 gain (5)!


Average Annual Change in Households,2020-2035 (-402 to 368)Decrease, more than 20 loss (1)!Little change, 19 loss to 20 gain (124)!Moderate increase, 21 to 70 gain (63)!Large increase, 70 to 150 gain (23)!Very large increase, more than 150 gain (18)!


1990-2005 2005-2020Average Annual Change in HouseholdsDecrease, more than 20 loss (10 vs. 9)!Little change, 19 loss to 20 gain (75 vs. 147)!Moderate increase, 21 to 70 gain (79 vs. 53)!Large increase, 70 to 150 gain (30 vs. 15)!Very large increase, more than 150 gain (35 vs. 5)!


Waddell, Paul, Xuan Liu, and Liming Wang (2008), UrbanSim: AnEvolving Planning Support System for Evolving Communities. InPlanning Support Systems for Cities and Regions, edited by RichardBrail. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.


Percent of Pop Age 25 or Older withBachelors or Higher, 2000 (4.7% to 83.5%)10% or less (36)!More than 10% to 25% (104)!More than 25% to 40% (48)!More than 40% to 55% (22)!More than 55% (19)!Percent of Total Employment that isKnowledge Based, 2005 (0% to 57.3%)15% or less (93)!More than 15% to 25% (49)!More than 25% to 35% (16)!More than 35% (13)!Blocked for confidentiality (58)!


• No explicit representation ofsub-regional markets• Lack of clustering (e.g. subdivisions)


• Some improvement onsub-regional markets• Still lack of clustering

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