Crisis Epidemiology & the Curse of Complexity

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Crisis Epidemiology & the Curse of Complexity

Tuesday, October 18, 2011Crisis Epidemiology & the Curse of Complexity


Theories ofcomplexityChange, uncertainty, selforganization2Tuesday, October 18, 2011


Basics of complex systems• Locally interacting agents• Self-organization• Adaptability• History-dependent• Ill-defined, permeableboundaries• Instability & uncertainty3Tuesday, October 18, 2011


EmergenceEvolutionAggregationTuesday, October 18, 2011


Dynamic networks of networksTuesday, October 18, 2011


Multiplexity &entanglementTuesday, October 18, 2011


Tuesday, October 18, 2011


Contagionlocal interactions lead to wide-scale changeTuesday, October 18, 2011


PhenomenaMeaningBehaviorTuesday, October 18, 2011


Social ContagionInformationBehaviorComplex ContagionMeaningSARFTuesday, October 18, 2011


“Communication is a symbolicprocess whereby reality isproduced, maintained,repaired, and transformed.”James CareyTuesday, October 18, 2011


Tuesday, October 18, 2011


Tuesday, October 18, 2011


Systemsof actorsSystems ofmeaningTuesday, October 18, 2011


Tuesday, October 18, 2011Narrative


Narratives ofcontingencies&connectionsthrough timeTuesday, October 18, 2011


Tuesday, October 18, 2011Heartbreak of Holism


Tuesday, October 18, 2011


Tuesday, October 18, 2011


AgentDiseaseHostEnvironmentTuesday, October 18, 2011


AgentDisease IllnessHostEnvironmentTuesday, October 18, 2011


AgentCombined risk factorsDisease Illness CrisisActorsHostActors in Emergent Environment ContextsTuesday, October 18, 2011


Tuesday, October 18, 2011Outbreaks & Clusters


MumbaiGenesis,Ramifications &RipplesTuesday, October 18, 2011


GlobaleconomiccrisisPost-911 worldConfluenceUnique starting conditionsNew UKcorporatemanslaughterlawsTuesday, October 18, 2011


SymboliccapitalPost-911 worldEmergenceChanges & PerturbationsRelease ofSlumdogMillionaireTuesday, October 18, 2011


Ripple effectto otherdestinationsIncreasedsecurityEmergenceChanges & PerturbationsMedia reportsofrepercussionsTuesday, October 18, 2011


“We’ve seen that sort of thing before inEgypt after terrorist activity, andgradually confidence builds up and theplace gets back to normal.”Philip Grierson, India specialist tour operator Cox & Kings,quoted in The Independent (28 November 2008)Tuesday, October 18, 2011


Tuesday, October 18, 2011


AdaptationEffective selforganizationTuesday, October 18, 2011


Complexity means change,but it also means surprisewithin a range”Tuesday, October 18, 2011


Tuesday, October 18, 2011

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