Integration of 50 % wind power in a CHP-based ... - Ea Energianalyse

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Integration of 50 % wind power in a CHP-based ... - Ea Energianalyse

Model results 113Total annualproduction[GWh]20.00018.00016.00014.00012.00010.0008.0006.0004.0002.000‐Comparison of heat production:Heat pump scenarioExtraction units (central, coal)Boiler, central (gas)Backpressure (dc, gas)Boiler, decentralized (gas)Heat pump, centralHeat pump, decentralized2008 2017 2025HEAT PUMP SCENARIOS: Wind capacity anno:Figure 6.42, Comparison of heat production from the different facilities,showing a significant overweight of heat produced on electricalheat pumps, and decentralized CHP being non-prioritized.When seen over the years modeled (figure above), heat produced on heat pumps make upa large share of the total amount of heat produced in the decentralized areas, regardlessof the amount of wind capacity (meaning both in the 2008, the 2017 and the 2025 scenario).In the central distribution areas heat pumps have a smaller, yet increasingly, shareof the produced heat towards the 2025 scenario. For heat pumps installed in central distributionareas, the key issue is the electricity price. The shadow price of heat pump followsthe electricity price, which is opposite to extracted heat, whose price increases whenthe electricity price is low. When electricity prices are high, we see heat from extractionunits replacing heat from heat-pump (this usually happens in periods of peak load).Because heat pumps enhance the electricity demand they also contribute to higher shadowprices on electricity, which again, results in higher production costs for heat pumps.However, recalling that the annual heat production (indicated by the bars in Figure6.42), is influenced by a constant, low marginal price on hydro power, the heat pumpproduction in the central areas might be too high. Despite of this, the overall knowledgegained from the model result is that it would make the most sense economically to prioritizeinstallation of heat pumps in the decentralized areas, since the results shows agreater utilization of the installed capacities.6.3.3. SummaryNot only will the electricity- and heat prices change as consequence of increased windcapacity in the Danish energy system. In relation to this, the production patterns will beaffected too. In this section, the results of the optimized production patterns on bothelectricity and heat production have been analyzed.Regarding the production of electricity, it has been shown, that in the reference scenario,as a result of the increasing wind capacity, the extraction units down-regulates at first(2017 scenario) for then finally to de-commit to the absolute minimum as the wind capacityincreases further (2025 scenario). Simultaneously, the quantity of exported poweras well as the surplus wind capacity increases. However, the amount of wind power inthe 2008 scenario seemed overestimated when compared to the average amount in West-DK 2004-2009, and additionally, the marginal costs of hydro (import) were underestimated,resulting in a much higher annual import than in West-DK.

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