Integration of 50 % wind power in a CHP-based ... - Ea Energianalyse

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Integration of 50 % wind power in a CHP-based ... - Ea Energianalyse

Economic Analyses 139tive to the amount of wind power. The average shadow price level is relatively constantregardless of the increasing wind penetration.When comparing the reference- to the heat pump scenario, once again we see a significantimpact of heat pumps on the shadow price characteristics. The export limit constrainingthe solution is a rare case (not taking place in 2008 at all, and only in 1 % and8 % of the time in 2017 and 2025 respectively), whereas the share of time where the importlimit is constraining the solution is as high as 81 % in 2008, decreasing to 43 % in2025, though.From the results in the table comparing the full scale BPO- to the reference scenario(subjected to the windy profile); we see that the applied BPO option has a positive influenceon the share of hours constrained by the export limit, going from 69 % in the referencescenario to 48 % in the BPO scenario. The average shadow price being around 17€/MWh in both scenarios. This indicates, all things equal, an increased utilization ofwind.Ad 4) Wind power unitsAs seen in connection with the boiler capacity, the shadow price of the upper productionlimit of the wind capacity (the windy profile) expresses the economic gain of a marginalincrease of this capacity, and will thus be interpreted as the instantaneous value of windpower.Looking at the 2008-reference system in Table 7.15 above, the share of hours with a nonzeroshadow price is 100 %, showing that the upper capacity limit constantly constrainsthe optimal solution. In practice, this means that no hours of critical electrical spillover(forcing down regulation of wind) have occurred within the reference scenario of 2008.Proceeding to 2017, this amount decreases to 93 % and further down to 79 % in 2025.This means that first 7 % and then 21 % of the year, respectively, the model downregulateswind power due to critical spillover. Similarly, the average shadow price levelof 20.45 €/MWh (gain) in 2008, decreases to 18 €/MWh and 17 €/MWh in 2017 and 2025,respectively. That is a 12-15 % averagely decline in the value of wind power when increasingthe wind penetration level according to the 2017 and 2025 wind scenarios.In the heat pump scenario (Table 7.15), the annual share of hours constrained by theupper capacity remains within a high level of 99.3 % in 2017, decreasing to 92.2 % of thetime in 2025. Based in this alone, the modeled heat pump capacity seems to be a successfulinstrument for avoiding critical spillover. Furthermore, the average shadow pricelevel is significantly higher in the heat pump scenario than in the reference system, with30 €/MWh in 2008 declining to 26 €/MWh and 24 €/MWh in 2017 and 2025, respectively– all three being higher than in the 2008-reference scenario. An immediate interpretationof this is that heat pumps may be a perfect mechanism for maintaining a high incentivefor continued investment in wind power.Proceeding to the full-scale bypass scenario (Table 7.17), which have only been modeledfor a selected number of weeks (subjected to the windy profile), it is seen how the appliedBPO option again has a positive, yet modest effect on the utilization of wind. First, thetotal share of hours constrained by the upper wind capacity has increased from 46.4 % inthe reference system to 52.8 % in the BPO system, which equals a decrease of 12 % in

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