Integration of 50 % wind power in a CHP-based ... - Ea Energianalyse

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Integration of 50 % wind power in a CHP-based ... - Ea Energianalyse

160 Discussionpotential. The model results therefore indicate a potential of increased flexibility, alreadycontained by the present system.In the resent years, much has been said about the necessity of heat pumps, electricalcars, and other tools for increased flexibility. While planning large investments into amore advanced network of the future, this project suggests a simultaneously conductionof further studies of the different obstructions causing the inflexibility behind the heatconstrainedpower, based on the flexibility of extraction units seen in the modelled referencescenario of the project – obstructions which could be market-related as well astechnically founded. And then, as a further step, a study into the concept of turbinebypassis suggested based on the positive economic results found in this project – especiallywhen seen from a plant-owner’s perspective. The results of this project fundamentallysupport the thesis that heat pumps should play a large role in the future energysystem due to their ability of producing renewable heat, and even today, steps in thisdirection should be taken before changing the entire system (which to some extent isrequired in order to incorporate electrical cars for example). However, as the results obtainedfrom the modelled heat pumps scenarios indicate, an increased demand for coalbasedpower by might develop in this system, and the report stresses the importance offurther studies into the corresponding role of central units in the future in relation toCO2 emissions. However, flexible production is easy to implement and does not rely somuch on change of attitude among the general consumer.8.4. Validity of the results8.4.1. Statistical dataData used for the analysis is first and foremost data from the Danish TSO on the WestDanish energy market, ranging from 2004 to 2009 (the corresponding heat data coveredonly 2001), and data on the power units from 2006 (see section 4.1 and 5.4.1). By usingfive-year data for the analyses, the variations from year to year in for example temperatureand rainfall are evened out, and extreme data are included but are not critical tothe results. Furthermore, the five-year data provide an excessive amount of data – morethan 40,000 observations – which provide a better data basis for the calculations. Theaccuracy of the estimates of the relation between critically low prices and the explanatoryvariables (section 4.5) increases as the number of observations increases, and themean values used to demonstrate the impact of wind power on price formation (section4.2), are less affected by outliers than with a lower number of observations.8.4.2. The unit commitment modelAs mentioned at the beginning, several simplifications has been made in order to be ableto model the impacts of wind power today as well as in a future scenario with increasedwind capacity.It has been stressed earlier on that the model optimizes the energy system as if therewere only one producer (owning all the utilities) trying to minimize the total systemcosts. The results, however, apply to a market system where an infinite number of producersare price takers with no ability to manipulate the market (for further elabora-

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