Integration of 50 % wind power in a CHP-based ... - Ea Energianalyse

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Integration of 50 % wind power in a CHP-based ... - Ea Energianalyse

8 Introductionledge, help develop a model with the exact properties needed in order to meet the primaryobjective. Both parts of the project imply a preceding literature study. The review ofthe West Danish energy system in the project’s first part is a continuation of the literaturestudy started at the pre-study. The strategy of the literature study was to select andanalyze previous studies done on wind penetration in CHP based power systems, andthe selection has taken place so that research papers regarding the problems connectedto large wind penetration levels in a CHP based power system – especially seen from apower balancing and system responsibility aspect - have been chosen.The focus of the review is on the elements of relevance to the model as well as the analysesof the modeled results. The analyzed data have primarily been provided by Energinet.dkcovering the electrical side with parameters such as time and date, electricityprices, production and consumption, export etc, all on an hourly basis. The additionalheat data has been provided by Ea. The period of time of the used data spans over fiveyears, going from the beginning of 2004 till the end of 2008. It consists of a large numberof observation points which will lay a good foundation for the statistical analyses.The statistical analysis on the causes of critically low prices is carried out for a range ofexplanatory factors including the ones just mentioned in relation to analyzed data. Theexplanatory factors are selected on the basis of the knowledge gained from the literaturestudy, and the statistical analyses are carried out by analysis of contingencies tables,graphs and by logistic regression. A regular spreadsheet tool (Excel) will be used for thedata processing and calculations of the contingencies tables and the graphs, and for thestatistical analysis of the different parameter’s significant influence on critically lowprices, the statistical tool SPSS will be used.The overall purpose of the modeling part of this project (concerning point 2 and 3 of thestated objectives) is to formulate a mathematical optimization model that incorporates anumber of the basic system-properties characterizing the West Danish heat and powersystem. The building of the model is therefore based on the knowledge obtained from theliterature study as well as on a practical ‘learn by doing’ approach. Furthermore, it isbased on a study of the materials related to the programming language of the appliedmodeling tool GAMS. As mentioned above, the objective is not to model a detailed approximationof this system, but to achieve a number of results that are usable in a Danishcontext. However, a number of input parameters, including consumption and windprofiles, transmission and production capacities, to name a few, is taken directly fromthe real energy system. The modeling of the power units representing the production ofthe system has been simplified compared to the real system. The simplifications aremade in order to obtain a functioning, yet applicable model. The production will generallyconsist of power generation, combined heat and electricity production (CHP), and finallyheat producers. The thermal units will only include the fuels: Steam coal and Naturalgas. In this way, production from bio fuels and waste incineration will not be includedas in the real system, which may affect the environmental outcomes. The applicationof turbine bypass to central steam units in the model will, be assumed feasible on allcentral units with heat extraction, by which only the economic feasibility will be discussed.Regarding the technical properties of the different power plants, there will in thecase of bypass be a very limited discussion on the technical potentials or feasibility inrelation to current Danish power units.

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