Integration of 50 % wind power in a CHP-based ... - Ea Energianalyse

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Integration of 50 % wind power in a CHP-based ... - Ea Energianalyse

44 The impacts of wind power on price formation and production patternsand the external transmission capacity at its minimum, the probability of critically lowprices varies from 0.84 to 0.99 as function of the wind production.The effect of wind on the probability of critically low prices‐ given demand, decentralized el production, central el. production and hour of the dayProbability (%)100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Max windproductionAverage situation (all othervariables:mean/reference)Decentralized: max. (all other variables:mean/reference)External capacity: min. (all othervariables:mean/reference)161116212631364146Demand:min (all othervariables:mean/reference)Extreme situation: demand:min,decentralized: max, central: mean,capacity: min: hour: 9 pm to 2 amSTEP SIZE: 0.1 GWh wind productionFigure 4.18, The predicted probability of critically low price as function of wind productionfor four different profiles. It has been checked that no min or max values are so-called outliers.The lines can be interpreted this way: black = average situation, blue = cold day, red =low external capacity, green = low demand and purple = extreme scenario (all componentsfor low prices together).4.6. Wind power and the management of transmission capacities acrossbordersAs previously shown, wind power is often the main contributor for causing situationswith low prices in West-DK. One of the most important tools for managing largeamounts of wind based overproduction is to export the electricity. Interconnection capacitiesare not always fully exploited. Therefore, a statistical view on the management ofinterconnection capacities in the hours of critically low prices is of interest, in order togain an insight into whether there are circumstances that could be suspected of contributingto these market situations. Figure 4.19 gives a overview of the different importand export situations in hours with low prices, showing that on average, the two mostexpected market situations are 1) where West-DK exports to Norway while importingfrom Germany and 2) Where West-DK exports to all connected areas (both with a probabilityof 35.5 % to happen). This indicate that the most common scenario in terms of reallylow prices is one, where the spot price is either an internally created problem, or onepartially caused by the North German power system of the EEX area - which is also reflectedin the much higher system prices in NO1 and SE, respectively. With 5.4 % and4.5 %, respectively, the third and fourth most expected power flow, in relation to lowprices, is 4) where low prices occurs in NO1, resulting in a power flow going from NO1and thus through West-DK for further export towards Germany and Sweden, and finally3) where low prices in both Sweden, Germany and West-DK result in a power flow towardsNorway.

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