Integration of 50 % wind power in a CHP-based ... - Ea Energianalyse

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Integration of 50 % wind power in a CHP-based ... - Ea Energianalyse

Model results 77Maximum low-price period [h] 17 49 120Table 6.4, Key figures from modeled electricity prices.6.2.2. Heat pricesAs with electricity, the calculated shadow prices of the heat-demand constraint will beinterpreted as the heat price. However, when modeling the co-production of heat andelectricity, it is often the case that heat is more needed than power. The co-generatedheat and electricity on extraction- and backpressure facilities to some extend are mutuallydependent, by which one of the goods may be produced at a lower price than itsbasic marginal production cost, thereby no longer directly forming the price. As explainedin section 5.2.3, the marginal income-loss of one good can be regarded as wasteconnected with producing the other, and is therefore reflected by an increased price onthis. Figure 6.5, which is a sample of electricity prices and de-centralized heat prices,plotted together, shows an example of how electricity-price variations affect the heatprice and the other way around.El./heatprice[€/MWh]4540353025201510501 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223Time [h]DC heatEl. priceFigure 6.5, Plot of electricity- and heat price. It shows that (when CHP are themarginal utility in the heat market) prices are mutually connected by which adecreasing value of the one causes an increase in the value of the other.The heat price of the three reference scenarios in the central distribution areas can beseen in Figure 6.6 and Figure 6.7 plotted for January and July, respectively. Althoughthe average heat prices of the two month are close to identical, the variations in the heatprices are characterized by much greater fluctuations in July than in January. Additionally,the heat prices in July have much deeper “price valleys” than in January. Whencomparing the 2008- , 2017- and 2025 scenarios, the general picture is that the heatprices increase as time goes by, as a result of additional lower prices on the electricityside.

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