0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

0600 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookElsewherein the SPC:HomeAbout the SPCForecast ProductsWatchesMesoscale DiscussionsConvective OutlooksFire Weather ForecastsExperimental ProductsWatch/Warning DisplayClimatological DataExperimentalTechniquesPublicationsFAQCool ImagesStaffFeedbackProduct ArchiveLinksCurrent WeatherDisclaimerSearchQuick SearchCategorical GraphicProbabilistic Graphics (more info)Tornado Damaging Wind Large Hail(Select thumbnails to view full images)STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OKDAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.VALID 061200Z - 071200ZTHERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROMPORTIONS OF THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL KS TOTHE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE CNK 20 ESE MHK 40 ENE ICT 10 S END20 WNW CSM 65 WSW GAG 15 NW LBL 45 NW GCK 40 SSW MCK 40 S EAR 35NNE CNK.SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THERIGHT OF A LINE FROM LTS 40 NE PVW 15 E DHT 40 ENE LAA 50 SE AIAANW 25 NW SUX 50 ENE OMA FLV 40 NW BVO 20 NW OKC LTS.THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM30 S SJT 35 N MAF 35 WSW DHT 30 SE LIC 50 N CYS 35 WSW RAP25 W ATY 40 E VOK 30 N DTW 30 SSE FDY 50 W LUK 25 W COU 25 NW FYVPRX 25 WSW ACT 30 S SJT.GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE WAL30 SSW BLF 55 SSE SDF 30 SW PAH 30 SSE TXK 40 ENE CLL 40 NW LRD...CONT... 90 SSE MRF 30 E GDP 25 N ALM 55 N SVC 35 NNW TUS65 SW GBN 30 ESE PRB 20 NW UKI 15 N 4BK 35 SE PDX 25 ENE BYI35 SE P24 85 NW CMX ...CONT... 40 W ART ALB BID.

...CNTRL PLAINS...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IS EXPECTEDACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOONAND EVENING.VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. ACCOMPANIED BY 100KT MID LEVEL JET WILL EJECT NEGATIVELY TILTED THROUGH THE SRN ANDCNTRL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NERN CO EWDTHROUGH CNTRL KS AND NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. DRYLINE EXTENDSSWD FROM SWRN KS THROUGH W TX AND SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FORCONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY.PRIMARY COMPLICATING FACTOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BETHE WAY MODELS ARE DRYING OUT BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF TX ANDSUBSEQUENTLY SPREADING IT NWWD INTO OK. EVENING SOUNDING DATASUGGEST THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ABOVE RELATIVELY SHALLOWBOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SERN TX. VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS EVENING ALSOSHOWED AN AREA OF CLEARING MOVING RAPIDLY NWWD THROUGH CNTRL TX.THIS AIR POSSIBLY ORIGINATED DUE TO SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH UPPERRIDGE ACROSS WRN GULF. OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST MODELS MAY TOOAGGRESSIVE WITH THIS EVOLUTION. 00Z DRT SOUNDING SHOWED BOUNDARYLAYER DID NOT DRY OUT AS MUCH AS FORECAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THATAXIS OF RICH MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD NWD THROUGH W TX AND INTOWRN KS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE TONIGHT. IF MORNING SOUNDING DATA SHOWTHAT THE DEPTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLYFURTHER E...PORTIONS OF TX/OK MAY BE TAKEN OUT OF RISK AREAS.WARM FRONT ACROSS KS SHOULD LIFT NWD FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENSOVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZEIN WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF KS SWWD THROUGH W TX AND NWRN OKAHEAD OF DRYLINE. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THEMID TO UPPER 60S SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPES FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG.CIRRUS CANOPY MAY LIMIT HEATING EARLY IN PERIOD. HOWEVER...DRY SLOTASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SURFACEHEATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN KS SWD THROUGH WRN OK AND WRN TXDURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIODALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB WITH LARGE HAILTHE PRIMARY THREAT.OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE FROM WRN KS SWDTHROUGH THE TX/OK PANHANDLES DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALEASCENT WEAKENS CAP AND STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVETROUGH CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING DRYLINE CONVERGENCE. DEEP LAYERSHEAR IN EXCESS OF 70 KT AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES FROM 300 TO400 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT TORNADIC SUPERCELLS FROM PORTIONS OF THETX/OK PANHANDLES INTO NWRN OK THROUGH WRN/CNTRL KS. LARGE HAIL WILLALSO BE LIKELY. GIVEN STRENGTH OF FLOW BETWEEN 2 AND 5 KM STORMSWILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD AROUND 50 KT AFTER INITIATION. OVERNIGHTACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WIND LIKELY.STRENGTH OF WIND AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALONG WITH ANTICIPATEDMODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG...DAMAGING TORNADOES IN AND AROUND HIGH RISK AREA...DIAL.. 04/06/01NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300ZTop/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home