June 4, 2008 - unido

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June 4, 2008 - unido

PresentationbyDr. Anil KanePresidentWorld Wind Energy AssociationChairmanIndian Wind Energy AssociationatThe Global Renewable Energy Forum in Fozdo Iguaçu, u, Brazil during 18 to 21 May 2008June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 1


Trends in the Global Energy ScenarioThe fastest growing industry of the world today isthe Wind Energy. It had grown at a compoundrate of 24% for last 10 years. No industry in thehistory has grown at this rate. {Figure 1 & 1(a)}will show how the industry has grown. Variousagencies have projected the demand by usingvarious methods.June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 2


Figure 1Worldwide wind energy installation figures as at 31 December 2007June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 3


Figure 1 (a)June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 4


Figure 2June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 6


Trends in the Global Energy ScenarioThe world has added from 1998– 2007 more than 19000 MW(Figure 3).June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 7


Figure 3June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 8


Trends in the Global Energy ScenarioThe world wide wind energyinstallation figures continent wise, ason 31st December 2007 in the formof pie chart (Figure 4).June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 9


Figure 4Worldwide wind energy installation figures percontinent as at 31 December 2007:June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 10


WIND CLASSESDepending upon the wind power density(W/sq. m) and the mean wind speed, thelocations has been identified in 7 classes(Figure 5).June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 11


Figure 5Wind Class10 m50 mWind PowerClassWind PowerDensity(W/sq. m.)MeanWindSpeed(m/s)Wind PowerDensity(W/sq. m.)MeanWindSpeed(m/s)18.8June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 12


To know the potential of a particular site,meteorological data for a complete yearregarding wind, i.e. the wind velocity, thedirection of wind and the duration are depicted.If this graph is drawn, it looks like what isshown in (Figure 6), called Wind Rose.June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 13


Figure 6Wind RoseA wind rose diagram showing therelative frequency of directionsfrom where the wind is comingfrom.To show the information about the distributions of wind speeds, and thefrequency of the varying wind directions, one may draw a so-calledwind rose on the basis of meteorological observations of wind speedsand wind directions.A wind rose gives you information on the relative wind speeds indifferent directions, i.e.each of the three sets of data (frequency, meanwind speed, and mean cube of wind speed) has been multiplied by anumber which ensures that the largest wedge in the set exactlymatches the radius of the outermost circle in the diagram.June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 14


The awareness about the need of the accelerating electricalenergy production by renewable source is picking up very fast.The terrible impacts of global warming have started clear signsof disastrous consequences. The rain patterns have startedchanging completely. The desert of Rajasthan in India hasfaced unprecedented flooding first time in the history. Glaciersin the Himalayan Mountains are receding at an alarming rate.The carbon dioxide concentration has increased beyond belief{Figure 7 & 7(a)}. The biggest culprits are thetransportation and electricity generation industries. Irecommend that everyone should watch AL Gore’sdocumentary movie.June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 15


Figure 7HIGHER ENERGY CONSUMPTION FORECAST INCREASES CARBONDIOXIDE EMISSIONSCarbon dioxide emissions by sector and fuel, 2004 and 2030 (million metric tons)4000.003000.002000.001000.000.002004203020042030200420302004203020042030Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation Electricity GenerationPetroleumNatural GasCoalElectricityJune 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 16


Figure 7 (a)FORECAST OF ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONJune 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 17


Renewable electricity generationcapacity reached an estimated 240gigawatts (GW) worldwide in 2007, anincrease of 50 percent over 2004. Renew-ables represent 5 percent of global powercapacity and 3.4 percent of global powergeneration. (Figures exclude largehydropower, which itself was 15 percentof global power generation.)June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 18


GLOBAL POWER SCENARIO• Global GDP set to grow at 3.4% annually till2030• Emerging economies like China and Indiaprojectedto grow by 8 – 10%• A fourth of the world’s population lives indarkness- Increase in net electricity consumption by2015: 42%- New generation capacity required by2030:1,600 GW(5,087 GW including replacement capacity)Source: International Energy AgencyJune 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 19


Developed economies take lion’sshare in energy consumption17,179Per capita electricity consumption13,338k W h / y e a r11,1267,6895,6421,900631Canada USA Australia France Russia China IndiaSource : International Energy AgencyJune 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 20


Global Primary Energy Supply 2005 (Mtoe)Natural gas,20.7%Coal, 25.3%Waste, 10.0%Nuclear, 6.3%Hydro, 2.2%Oil, 35.0%Others(includingWind), 0.5%Source : International Energy AgencyJune 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 21


Increasing Trend of Renewable Energy generationPower generation from Renewables (TWh)400350456300250200150100136482227SolarGeothermalWindBiomass & Waste5012501990 2004Source : International Energy AgencyJune 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 22


Key growth drivers for wind energy - IConcern Demand CatalystsClimate ChangeandGlobalWarmingZerocarbonsolutionAggressive global targetsKyoto Protocol: CO2 emissions to reduce by5.2% of 1990s levels by 2012 EU declaration: 20% from RE by 2020US: 21 States with 10% to 20% RPS mandatesChina RE law: 20% by 2020 from REIndia: 10 States with 2% to 10% RPO mandatesSource : American Wind Energy AssociationBTM Consult ApS World Market Update 2006June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 23


Key growth drivers for wind energy - IIConcern Demand CatalystsEnergySecurityLocalavailabilityHedge against geopolitical risks - local andsecured supplyNo risk of fuel price volatilitySocially, ecologically and economicallysustainable growthSource : American Wind Energy AssociationBTM Consult ApS World Market Update 2006June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 24


Key growth drivers for wind energy - IIIConcern Demand CatalystsIncreasedElectricityDemandAbundantresourceEnergy - key to economic growth in developingcountries (India, China etc. require all sourcesquickly to bridge gap)Wind’s global electricity generation contributionexpected to increase from 0.82% in 2006 to4.04% in 2016Source : American Wind Energy AssociationBTM Consult ApS World Market Update 2006June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 25


Key growth drivers for wind energy - IVConcern Demand CatalystsCostcompetitivenessand hedgingZero fuelcostImprovement in yields (cost/ kWh) Cost / kWh of generation: US$ 0.03 - 0.06Wind Energy directly competing withconventional powerFrozen lifecycle power cost for utilitiesSource : American Wind Energy AssociationBTM Consult ApS World Market Update 2006June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 26


What is the necessity of securing the Energy?Our energy needs are growing very rapidly.The domestic supply is not able to matchFossil fuel is becoming scarceThe hydro situation is not rosy eitherThe nuclear is riddled with controversygloballyClimate change is pressing for clean energyThe oil prices are hitting the roof USD112/barrelJune 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 27


RE is no longer a fringe player Global RE market was valued more than US $25billion in the 2007 calendar year Approximately 45% attributed to wind energy alone Several estimates put the Global RE market togrow to US$100 billion by the year 2010 Growth in the last 5 years was about 30%, thesame is likely to continue in the coming years With the result policies and regulatory framework have started becoming conducive to the REJune 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 28


CURRENT OPERATING COSTSThough Wind Energy is a capital intensive proposition,you will see from the figure (Figure 8) the operatingcost of wind is lower than any other method. Sometimespeople think that nuclear is cheaper, but that is not thecase. On the contrary, these figures regarding theoperating cost of nuclear system will be much higher thanshown here since the price of uranium also hasskyrocketed like the oil price. While the only steadyoperating cost is wind since there is no raw material cost.June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 29


Figure 8CURRENT OPERATING COSTSCost in cents per kilowatt hour43.532.521.510.51.822.133.6910NUCLEARPOWERCOAL FIREDPLANTSNATURAL GASWINDJune 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 30


The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) haspredicted that the world electrical energy requirement willtriple by 2050. The current electrical energy installation isaround 3.6 million MW, which will become about 11 millionMW. It is unthinkable to imagine this much quantity beingproduced by fossil fuel. What will happen to the greenhouse gases (including carbon dioxide concentration) is nomore a gas work. It will make the world unsuitable forlife. We can keep these figures lower only by adopting18th century life style. But this is not possible. If Chinaand India start consuming per capita electrical energy, asmuch as what the US consumes, the figures areunbelievably large.June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 31


To meet this enormous electricity demands, there are onlythree ways of producing electrical energy.1. By burning fossil fuels, i.e. coal, oil and gas.2. By carrying out nuclear fission by using uranium.3. By renewable energy.The consequences of fossil fuel burning are very wellknown and do not need any further elaboration. Theopposition to nuclear energy worldwide is understandableand knowing the risks, it is desirable to curb nuclearproduction to the extent possible. The atomic reactor costsfar more money to dismantle it than constructing it. TheChernobyl and Three Miles Island incidents are the eyeopener.June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 32


Lots of additional safety measures and precautions as wellas improvements in radiation shielding technologies havemade nuclear plant safer compared to the earlier generationplants. But the probability of misusing the atomic energy toproduce bombs is still lurking. Still we have not found asolution to stop this. However, as long as the nuclear plantis in operation, it is far more safer and acceptable thanburning fossil fuel. Between the two evils, the fossil fuelburning is a greater evil and we have to choose a lesser evilin case we have to choose one.Is the renewable energy capable to meet this incredibledemand of electrical energy?June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 33


Intensive researches are going on in photovoltaic and itsrelated fields. The prices of PV cells are slowly dropping, butstill they are quite far from commercial viability withoutgovernmental supports. It may become possible toeconomically produce large scale electrical energy by PVwithin 45 years.The tidal energy has limitations. You need a particulargeographic condition to have a tidal power plant. The onlysizeable power plant working in France is at a place called LaRance. It produces 240 MW for more than 40 years verysuccessfully. It is estimated that around 200,000 MW canbe generated from various places known to have aconducive situation for tidal energy production around theworld. The Government of Gujarat in India has embarkedupon an ambitious project called “Kalpasar” where 5800 MWof electrical energy will be produced by tidal power.June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 34


Hydro power also has large potential but it required longgestation period, besides inundation, rehabilitation andsubmerging of land create problems. It is very difficult toovercome these socio-economic situations.Even if China builds one Three Gorges Dam every year, it willnot be able to meet its growing demand for electricity.This leaves us to concentrate on wind energy. The onlyrenewable source of energy which is commercially viable onlarge scale and in adequate quantities is the wind sector. Ateam of Stanford University in California has carried out anexhaustive study and has reached to a conclusion based uponscientifically recorded and reliable source data (Figure 9 -14).June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 35


Figure 9EVALUATION OF GLOBAL WIND POWEREuropeSource : Stanford Edu. - Cristina L. ArcherJune 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 36


Figure 10EVALUATION OF GLOBAL WIND POWERNorth AmericaSource : Stanford Edu. - Cristina L. ArcherJune 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 37


Figure 11EVALUATION OF GLOBAL WIND POWERAsiaJune 4, 2008Source : Stanford Edu. - Cristina L. ArcherIndian Wind Energy Association 38


Figure 12EVALUATION OF GLOBAL WIND POWERAfricaJune 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 39


Figure 13EVALUATION OF GLOBAL WIND POWERAustraliaJune 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 40


EVALUATION OF GLOBAL WIND POWERSouth AmericaFigure 14June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 41


The study concludes that if only the areas having an annualaverage wind velocity grater than 7 m/se are taken intoaccount, wind worldwide could produce approximately 72trillion watt hours of electrical energy per year. This isequal to about 54,000 million tones of oil equivalent. Evenif only 20% of this power is captured, it is more than thetotal energy requirement of the entire world for allpurposes. If we consider just the electrical energyrequirement of the entire world, this potential is seven timesthe world needs, which is 1.6 to 1.8 Trillion Watt hours.June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 42


If we take into consideration areas which have got lesser than7m/sec wind velocity, and the offshore potential, the figure willbe astronomical.Taking into consideration the advances in the design of windgenerators, viz. the aerodynamics of the blade, the material ofconstruction of the blade, the design of the generators, the artof micrositing as well as the advances in electronics andelectrical technology of control have given us confidence thatvery large machines, (Figure 15, 16 & 17) can easily bemanufactured very efficiently, economically and in mass.June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 43


Figure 15June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 44


Figure 16June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 45


Figure 17June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 46


The human kind has no other alternative but to fullyconcentrate on the wind sector. The hurdles in the wind sectorare minor and the objections raised by some activists areridiculous in the real sense of the term. e.g.: It is claimed thatsome birds get killed by hitting the wind turbine blades. Theseare very freak cases and 1000 time more number of birds aregetting killed by the aviation industry and we can do nothingabout it. While designing the wind farms, some particularlocations, where the migratory bird activities are more can beavoided and this minuscule figure can further be reduced.There are some activists who also have been raising the bogeyof esthetics and the appearance of the wind machines. Theseare also unnecessary and the publicity mongers are onlymaking this noise. It is true that though the reliability of windpower has improved, problem do remain with consistentsupply. This also can become non issue when very large andscattered locations become operational.June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 47


If we examine the figures 9 - 14, we can see that a verylarge area falls under low velocity zone and tremendousamount of research is going on to effectively tap thewind energy from this zones in a commercially viablemanner.Some of the futuristic wind turbines suitable for lowerwind velocities are shown here to indicate novel designsto follow in a short while (Figures 18-28).June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 48


Futuristic DesignsFigure 18June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 49


Figure 19June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 50


Figure 20June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 51


Figure 21LADDERMILL (KITEPLANES)June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 52


Figure 22June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 53


Figure 23June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 54


Figure 24Wind Energy Marine Unit (WEMU) Being Developed inRussiaJune 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 55


Figure 25Wind Energy Marine Unit (WEMU) Being Developed inRussiaJune 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 56


Figure 26Wind Energy Marine Unit (WEMU) Being Developed in RussiaVictor V. Cheboxarov et al – ISES Solar World Congress2007June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 57


Figure 27Wind Energy Marine Unit (WEMU) Being Developed inRussiaVictor V. Cheboxarov et al – ISES Solar World Congress2007June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 58


Wind Mills in the SkyFigure 28Groups working in the US, Netherlands and Canada are readying to set up wind farms 9kilometers up in the sky. This is where we have the so called jet stream, or corridors of highvelocity winds, which high altitude aircraft make use of while flying eastwards.June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 59


In conclusion, the wind energy isprogressing very well and is goingdefinitely to come to the rescue ofthe mankind. In my opinion, this isthe only source, which is inabundance and can be economicallyexploited without disturbing thebalance of nature.June 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 60


Thank YouJune 4, 2008Indian Wind Energy Association 61

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