Download PDF (36 pages, 3.2 MB) - California Climate Change Portal

Download PDF (36 pages, 3.2 MB) - California Climate Change Portal

Indicators of Climate Change inCaliforniaClimate Change Conference 2009September 9Sacramento, CAbyLinda MazurOffice of Environmental Health Hazard AssessmentCalifornia Environmental Protection Agency

California’s climate change story‣ In collaboration with CalEPA, the California EnergyCommission, state and federal agencies and universitiesand research institutions

Purpose•To provide an overview of the indicator report andsummarize the indicators•To examine the indicator relationships andpresent the trends and status of climatechange in California based on observationaldata

CO 2 equivalents(million metric tons))Greenhouse gas emissions haveincreased500Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions in CO 2 Equivalents: 1990 - 2004(Based on IPCC Second Assessment Report 100-year Global Warming Potentials)4504003501990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004CO2 CH4 HGWP N2OSource: Karen Lutter, Air Resources Board 2008

CO 2 concentration, ppm…as have ambient CO 2 levels400Monthly average atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations390380370California carbon dioxidemonitoring locations360350400Trinidad Head340Point Arena330320380La Jolla3103003602002 2004 2006 2008Source: Lawrence BerkeleyLaboratory, 2007La Jolla Trinidad Head Point Arena Mauna LoaSource: Marc Fischer, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 2008

Departure, o F189519051915192519351945195519651975198519952005California’s temperatures have increased,with minimum temperatures rising faster3Statewide Annual TemperatureDeparture from Average210-1-2-3Maximum Minimum MeanSource: Laura Edwards, John Abatzoglou Desert Research Institute, 2008

California’s extreme heat temperatureshave increased…with nighttimetemps rising fasterSource: NCDC, 2007 (data); Gershunov, 2008 (analysis)

Precipitation (inches)189619061916192619361946195619661976198619962006Annual precipitation has stayed thesame40Statewide Annual Precipitation (July-June)35302520151050Source: Laura Edwards , John Abatzoglou, Desert Research Institute 2008

Climate Change:Sierra Nevada

Temperature, o CLake Tahoe’s waters arewarming7.0Annual Average Daily Temperature of Lake Tahoe6. 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Maximum Average MinimumSource: Robert Coats, UC Davis TERC 2008

Sierra Nevada glaciers have decreased in sizeLyellGlacier19032004.G. K. GilbertH. BasagicSource: Andrew Fountain, Hassan Basagic, Portland State University 2008

Spring snowmelt runoff has been decliningSource: Maurice Roos, Department of Water Resources 2008Snowpack water content has stayed the sameSource: Michael Dettinger, Scripps Institute of Oceanography 2008

Large wildfires are becoming more frequentWildfire frequency and mean March-August temperatureSource: Tony Westerling, et al., University of California Merced 2007

Tree deaths in the Sierra Nevada haveincreasedTree mortality in the Sierra NevadaAnnual mortality rate averaged among plotsExpected mortality rate ( + 2 SE)- - - - - Average water deficit (3-year running average)Source: Phil van Mantgem and Stephenson, United States Geological Survey2007

Certain plant and animal species arechanging elevations• Small mammal populations are foundat different elevations todaycompared with earlier in the century.Resurvey of the Grinnell studySource: Moritz, University of California Berkeley 2008• Alpine and subalpine plant changesare being tracked.Global observation research initiative inalpine environments (GLORIA)Source: Constance Millar, USDA Forest Service 2008

Climate Change:Central Valley

Chill hours have declinedSource: Baldocchi and Wong 2007

Delta water temperature hasstayed the sameSource: Michael Dettinger (SIO)based on data from Department of Water Resources 2008

Central Valley butterflies have been appearingearlier in the spring and bird migration arrivaltimes are changingSource: Forister, University of Nevada Reno andShapiro, University of California Davis 2008Source: PRBO Conservation Science 2008

Evidence suggests that wine grapesare blooming earlierSource: Kim Nichols Cahill, Stanford 2008Forest vegetation is contractingupslopeSource: James Thorne, University of California Davis 2008

Photo: Ron LeValleyClimate Change:Pacific Ocean andCoast

Sea levels and surface temperatures have increasedGolden Gate Gage 9414290(feet)NAVD 1988 Datum(feet)Golden Gate Annual Average and 19-Year Mean Tide Levels9.803.909.60Annual Average Tide19-Year Mean Tide3.709.403.509.203.309.003.108.802.908.602.70Source: Maurice Roos, BintaColeman, Department of WaterResources 20088.402.508.202.301900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Source: Frank Schwing, NationalOceanic and AtmosphericAdministration 2008

Dissolved oxygen levels in the SouthernCalifornia Current are decliningSource: Steven Bograd et al., National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 2008

Copepods populations are changingincreased variability year toyearSource: William Peterson, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 2008 and Goericke, et al., 2007

Cassin’s Auklet breedingsuccess has becomemore variablePhoto: Ron LeValleySource: William Sydeman and Jaime Jahncke,based on data from Point Reyes Bird Observatory 2008

Human health impacts are harderto discernOEHHA has studied heat-related mortality andfound an association between ambienttemperature and mortalitySource: Rupa Basu and Bart Ostro, Office of Environmental Health HazardAssessment 2008Mosquito-borne diseases are under investigationand the results are unclearSource: William Reisen, University of California Davis 2008

California’s StoryIndicators based on observational data revealclimate change impacts in California areconsistent with global trends and that…..

Indicator evidence of climate changeimpacts date back to:Model T1908Early 1900’sglaciersminimum air temperaturessea level riseocean temperature warmingforest vegetation patternsUSEPA1970IPCC1988Mid 1900’ssnowmelt runoffwinter chill hoursextreme heat eventsLake Tahoe water warmingbutterfly flightLate 1900’s to 2000’socean oxygen concentrationstree mortalitylarge wildfiresCassin’s Aukletbird migration

ContributorsJohn AbatzoglouMichael AndersonDennis BaldocchiHassan BasagicRupa BasuSteven BogradRussell W. BradleyKim Nichols CahillDan CayanRobert CoatsMichael DettingerLaura EdwardsMarc FischerMatthew ForisterAndrew FountainGuido FrancoAlexander GershunovMark HerzogDiana HumpleJaime JahnckeKaren LutterConnie MillarCraig MoritzBill PetersonKelly RedmondWilliam ReisenMaurice RoosGeoffrey SchladowFranklin SchwingArthur ShapiroWilliam SydemanPieter TansWebster TasatJames ThorneMary TyreePhillip van MantgemAnthony WesterlingJohn A. Wiens

For more thanks to: Angela De Palma- Dow,OEHHA

Certain plant and animal species are nowfound at higher elevations.Source: Moritz, University of California Berkeley 2008

Air Temperature byCounty PopulationSource: Michael Anderson, DWR, DRI 2008

Bird migration arrival times are changing.Spring arrivalsFall arrivalsSource: PointReyes BirdObservatory 2008

Julian dayWine grapes are blooming earlier.158Pinot Noir BloomSaintsbury Home Ranch, Napa side of Carneros148138128Estimated wine grape flower dates1181994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008Source: Kim Cahill, Stanford 2008▬ Winegrape ● HoneysuckleSSource: Nemani, et al., 2001

Forest vegetation is contracting upslope.Photo Source: USDA FS NW Region, 1997Source: James Thorne, University of California Davis 2008

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