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Assessing the Effectiveness of Climate Change AdaptationPolicies: Residential Water Use ChoicesSteve Conrad, PICS Research Fellow, REMBCWWA Conference, Kelowna BC!April 22, 2013!All photos taken in the Okanagan on September15, 2012!


Research TeamPrincipal Research Team !Steve Conrad, Principal Investigator, Simon Fraser UniversityJoel Pipher, Research Assistant, Simon Fraser UniversityDr. Wolfgang Haider, Project Supervisor, Simon Fraser UniversityDr. Murray Rutherford, Project Advisor, Simon Fraser UniversityDr. David Yates, Project Advisor, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research !Technical Steering Committee !Dr. Anna Warwick Sears, Nelson Jatel, Okanagan Basin Water Board Don Degen, Neal Klassen, City of Kelowna, Water SmartToby Pike, South East Kelowna Irrigation DistrictTed Van der Gulik, BC Ministry of Agriculture Dr. Denise Neilsen, Agriculture and Agri-food CanadaDr. John Janmaat, University of British ColumbiaDr. Michael Brydon, Regional District of Okanagan-Similkameen !Acknowledgements !This research was possible with federal funding support through Natural Resources Canada’sRegional Adaptation Collaborative Program and as an activity of the Agriculture Environment andWildlife Fund component of the Agri-Food Futures Fund, funding for which is provided through theCanada-British Columbia Framework Agreement on Agricultural Risk Management. !!School of Resource and Environmental Management – Steve Conrad!


Study Area – Okanagan Basin• Shifting landscapes (more outdoor irrigation)!• Increased demand pressures (20-50% morewater use by 2040)!• Climate change!• changes in the timing, location andamount of rain and snow!Changes in climate => changes in water availability => increased water conflict =>new risks => new management strategies for climate adaptationChanges in climate => changes in water availability =>new water management policiesSchool of Resource and Environmental Management – Steve Conrad!


Will climate change impact future demand?!!Water demand modelling!!• Okanagan Basin Water Demand Model (OWDM)!• The Okanagan Hydrologic ConnectivityModel (WEAP)!!§§Consider the impact ofclimate change!Model estimates of futurewater use under variousmanagement scenarios!What happens after water management strategies introduced,will they be effective in reducing water demand?!Okanagan Hydrologic Connectivity StudySchool of Resource and Environmental Management – Steve Conrad!


The human factor…Opportunity to enhance thebehavioural realism ofpredictions by studyingwhat response waterusers will present underdifferent policy/management optionsSchool of Resource and Environmental Management – Steve Conrad!


Adding behavioural realism to estimates of future demandWhere should we enhance estimates of future demand?!!!!!!!Source: RHF Systems Ltd. 2010. “Okanagan Valley Water Demand Data.”!!! ! ! ! ! ! Answer => Outdoor!preferences for landscapes and how residents might improve theiroutdoor water use efficiency !!!School of Resource and Environmental Management – Steve Conrad!


Start with a survey of water users in the Kelowna AreaSchool of Resource and Environmental Management – Steve Conrad!


to estimate…• attitudes about climate change!• preferences of water users for different water conservation anddemand management policies !• rank public acceptance of water scarcity managementalternatives and !• to provide “human behaviour” data for coupling with hydrologicalmodels !School of Resource and Environmental Management – Steve Conrad!


and develop behavioural estimates of consumer preferencesLawn A?Lawn B?Lawn C?School of Resource and Environmental Management – Steve Conrad!


Some survey elementsWhere are water users willing to conserve?How could more water use informationinform future water use?What is acceptable to water users?School of Resource and Environmental Management – Steve Conrad!


How might water users respond to future lawn choices?Water price increasesSize of lawnType of lawnAppearanceIncentiveCost and water useWater use and price estimatedbased on their current lawn andlawn choices A and BSchool of Resource and Environmental Management – Steve Conrad!


How would water users met future water need?Future Water needsMet by saving water or investing in new water suppliesInvestment costMove the sliders to indicated their preferred level of investmentSchool of Resource and Environmental Management – Steve Conrad!


Survey response897 completed surveys (~44% response rate)!841 responses used in analysis aftereliminating protest anderroneous responses!556 (66%) City of Kelowna 261 (31%) SEKID, 24 others!38% response rate COK!44% response rate SEKID!Random distribution!School of Resource and Environmental Management – Steve Conrad!


General observationsMean respondent has a yard with traditional varieties of lawn, trees andplants with only 23.7% indicating they use utilize water conservingvarieties of plants !!Overcoming consumer lack of awareness of management possibilities is akey factor in presenting and measuring policy approaches!!!Study eliminated water service agreements, soil augmentation, andother factors from the study because of a general lack of understandand trust!School of Resource and Environmental Management – Steve Conrad!


Does climate change matter to residents?Respondents believe climate change is occurring and winters areless severe. !§ Yes, climate change is happening; first indications are apparentalready (64.9%)!§ The severity of winters has decreased (51.5%)!§ The frequency of water shortages has increased (38.6%)!While many believe the climate is changing many still display a lack ofconsideration for water and climate change issues in decision making“Water shortages are not due to climate change but internationaltreaties”School of Resource and Environmental Management – Steve Conrad!


Do they care what their neighbours think?Observations from dataonly 10.3% ofrespondents feel theirneighbours would notaccept changes in theirlandscape that reducedthe amount of lawn. !Possible acceptance for changing landscapes!School of Resource and Environmental Management – Steve Conrad!


How would they use “smart” meter information?Residents indicated they would repair leaks and check their bill forerrors, but were “neutral” toward buying water efficientappliances.!Your$Recent$ConsumpDon$Your$Current$Bill$Your$Street’s$ConsumpDon$60$40$20$0$2:00$PM$3:00$PM$Today$4:00$PM$5:00$PM$6:00$PM$Yesterday$7:00$PM$8:00$PM$Your$household$is$using$more$than$yesterday$9:00$PM$TIER$3$90,000$L$$48$ June$Water$Use$60,000$L$ $30$TIER$2$30,000$L$$$17$TIER$1$Your$ConsumpDon$(liters)$Today$ Yesterday$ May$ April$720$ 542$ 31,500$ 19,800$80$60$40$20$0$2:00$PM$Min$ Avg$ Max$3:00$PM$4:00$PM$5:00$PM$6:00$PM$7:00$PM$8:00$PM$Your$household$is$using$more$than$average$for$your$street$9:00$PM$School of Resource and Environmental Management – Steve Conrad!


How would they manage water scarcity?To manage long term water scarcity residents prefer acombination of !behaviour changesInvesting in new water supplieswith public dollarsManaging urban growth66% find “restricting the amount” of water forlandscapes acceptableSchool of Resource and Environmental Management – Steve Conrad!


Residents want to protect the environment§ … But do not find acceptable!§ Draining local lakes and reservoirs!§ Reducing the amount of water for the environment!School of Resource and Environmental Management – Steve Conrad!


even above household water use?Water priorities during droughts!1. Water for Agriculture!2. Water for the environment!3. Water for Household use!Agricultural water most important during droughtEliminate outdoorwater use first!1.00 !0.90 !0.80 !0.70 !0.60 !0.50 !0.40 !0.30 !0.20 !0.10 !- !Important uses of water!0.89 !! 0.77 !0.60 !0.870.47 !0.46 ! 0.57 !Very Important!School of Resource and Environmental Management – Steve Conrad!


On reducing personal water use during water shortagesTo manage short term water scarcity respondents!§ Respondents were willing to reduce their water use by anaverage of 44.2%!53.6% reduction in lawn wateringreducing water for personal care (clothes washing,flushing toilets, and showering and bathing) was less preferred.School of Resource and Environmental Management – Steve Conrad!


as long as lawns stay greenBut during water shortages…!§ a large portion of respondents (>47%) indicated that theywould find “brown” public green spaces “disturbing” and!§ a larger portion of respondents (>51%) indicated that theywould find “brown” private green spaces “disturbing.”!School of Resource and Environmental Management – Steve Conrad!


Meeting future water demandResidents would meet future water needs (20% morewater) by !!improving water use efficiency (11% water savings)investing in more water supplies (9%) at a cost of $44a household/yr. !§ Prefer to invest more in improving outdoor water efficienciesthan indoor!§ Pay more for indoor water than outdoor water use!§ Value indoor 1.5x more than outdoor!School of Resource and Environmental Management – Steve Conrad!


How residents might make lawn choicesLawn replacement subsidies do not appear to besignificant - At least at $125,$250,$375,$500Results suggest a dislike for small and verylarge lawn sizespositive preference for artificial and waterconserving varieties of turf among somegroups“more brown thangreen” (appearance) andvery green lawns werenegatively preferred (cost)School of Resource and Environmental Management – Steve Conrad!


Next steps…Concurrent farmer survey on agricultural water reserves and droughtmanagement!Future work on using data to develop behavioural models (DSS) toestimate changes in lawn sizes and outdoor water use efficiency!Analyze management scenarios using coupled model!School of Resource and Environmental Management – Steve Conrad!


Questions?Several Reports available:!!NRCAN RAC Report: Assessing the effectiveness of climate changeadaptation policies: a survey of residential preferences, ProjectTechnical Summary, July 2012!!Okanagan Water Study: Resident Descriptive Statistics, December 2012!!Questions about this research may be directed to Steve Conrad, Simon Fraser University, c/o REM, TASC1-#8405,Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, steve.conrad@sfu.ca !!School of Resource and Environmental Management – Steve Conrad!

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