Technical Sessions – Monday July 11

3 - DSTO Threat Anticipation Framework
Simon Crase, JOD, Defence Science and Technology
Organisation, PO Box 1500, 5111, Edinburgh, South Australia,
Australia, simon.crase@dsto.defence.gov.au
Improvised explosive devices (IEDs) account for the majority of casualties incurred
in current Australian Defence Force (ADF) operations. Insurgent IED
technology is continually evolving and predicting this evolution allows for early
development of ADF countermeasures. A novel framework has been developed
which uses OR methods to provide structure and rigour in assessing potential
threats. This framework is used to determine the most likely paths of IED evolution,
given common operational scenarios. This paper introduces the framework
along with examples of its potential utility.
4 - Building a Flexible and Extensible Improvised Explosive
Device Data Model
Mark Bottger, DSTO, Australia,
mark.bottger@dsto.defence.gov.au
Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) are a significant threat present in military
operations. To deal with this complex threat requires well structured data on
the IED construction and the events so that the IED system can be understood.
A data model has been developed using traditional database concepts combined
with object oriented design principles to allow for a flexible construct of complex
data. The model allows for the representation of actual IED devices and
can be extended to incorporate new components and configurations. This will
enable more detailed OR studies of the IED threat.
� HA-16
Thursday, 9:00-10:30
Meeting Room 209
OR for Ambulance Services and Emergency
Departments
Stream: Health Care Applications
Invited session
Chair: Mark Fackrell, Mathematics and Statistics, The University of
Melbourne, 3010, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia,
fackrell@unimelb.edu.au
1 - Predicting Emergency Medical Service Demand in
Wales using Singular Spectrum Analysis
Julie Williams, Mathematics, Cardiff University, Senghennydd
Road, Cardiff, Wales, United Kingdom,
WilliamsJL5@cardiff.ac.uk, Paul Harper, Jonathan Gillard,
Vincent Knight
Our work is concerned with considering a novel time-series approach to predicting
demand exerted upon the Welsh Ambulance Service using the technique
of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), and show that the predictions generated
using this technique compare favourably to forecasts obtained from conventional
forecasting methods. We proportion the daily predictions by shift period
and priority levels, to optimise the number of response vehicles to be deployed
at a regional level. Ultimately we aim to develop a time-dependent and priority
queueing model to generate rosters for crew members.
2 - Optimisation of Ambulance Move-up
Lei Zhang, Engineering Science Dept., The University of
Auckland, 70 Symonds St., Auckland, New Zealand,
lzha174@aucklanduni.ac.nz, Andrew J Mason, Andy Philpott
In this presentation, we will first present a single-ambulance move-up model
that redeploys the ambulance that just becomes available either at scene or at
a hospital in order to maximise the percentage of calls reached within a target
response time. We use simulation optimisation with local search to find a static
look-up table that creates rankings for ambulance bases. The highest vacant
entry of the table is chosen to be the destination for the newly freed ambulance.
We then will show that we can formulate a two-stage integer programming (IP)
model which is a generalised version of the single-ambulance move-up model.
It allows us to redeploy multiple ambulances under the same framework—using
a static look-up table. We use randomly generated call data and the Auckland
road network for computational experiments. We will analyse the simulation
results consisting of performance measures such as the calls reached on time,
operational costs induced by driving and crew’s ’discomfort’ caused by moveups.
Insights will be obtained from these results and guide us towards developing
improved models.
IFORS 2011 - Melbourne HA-17
3 - The Impact of Whiteboard System on Dynamics of an
Emergency Department
Farrukh Rasheed, Information & Industrial Engineering Dept.,
Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea, Republic Of,
farrukhaccount@gmail.com, Young Hoon Lee
Information management in health care operation research paradigm is one of
the most crucial issues requiring utmost attention from professionals/senior executives
interested in design, management and implementation of related information
systems. Information management system deals with the collection
of information from all relevant sources and distributing that information to
target locations provided that the subject system has also a complete control
over the structure, processing and delivery of information with secure real-time
data management and access. Whiteboard system is an appropriate and proven
means of health care information management because of its highly intuitive
nature and architecture. This research study deals with the development of a
whiteboard system for an emergency department and quantifying the benefits
in numerical terms.
4 - Predicting Overflow in an Emergency Department
Mark Fackrell, Mathematics and Statistics, The University of
Melbourne, 3010, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia,
fackrell@unimelb.edu.au
The main cause for an emergency department to reach capacity is access block,
that is, the inability to move patients into hospital beds quickly enough. We
model the bed waiting process as a C-server queue with exponentially distributed
arrival and service times, and find the probability that the emergency
department reaches capacity given the current number of patients waiting. We
also discuss the validation of the model, and give some details as to how the
parameters governing the arrival and departure processes were estimated.
� HA-17
Thursday, 9:00-10:30
Meeting Room 214
OR in Finance 2
Stream: Finance
Invited session
Chair: Rita Decclesia, Economic and Social Analysis, Sapienza
University of Rome, Piazza Aldo Morto 5, 00185, Rome, Italy,
rita.decclesia@uniroma1.it
Chair: Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber, Institute of Applied Mathematics,
Middle East Technical University, ODTÜ, 06531, Ankara, Turkey,
gweber@metu.edu.tr
Chair: Cristinca Fulga, Department of Mathematics, Academy of
Economic Studies, Piata Romana 6, Sector 1, 010374, Bucharest,
Romania, fulga@csie.ase.ro
1 - Evaluation of the Governance Performance of Chinese
Local Government from its Financial Expenditures on
Rural Compulsory Education
Yongsheng Chen, Social-Ecomic Division, Institute of
International Relations, NO.64, Wan Shou Road, Wenshan, 116,
Taipei, Taiwan, yschenfu@nccu.edu.tw
In recent years, China set up the protection mechanism of financial transit payment
for rural compulsory education. In the point of financial expenditure, this
study assesses the performances of China’s local government. By employing
the Location Quotient and Data Envelopment Analysis, this study will evaluate
that the efforts of the local government willing to put the policy into action;
consider the renovation of dilapidated buildings, increase of school library
equipment and special facilities, the increase on the amounts of graduates and
full-time teachers, etc.
2 - Changes in the Structure of Economic Activities of Developed
and Developing Countries - Case of Serbia
Tibor Kis, Quantitative Methods in Economy, Faculty of
Economics, Segedinski put 9-11, 24000, Subotica, Serbia,
tbkis@yahoo.com, Marija Cileg
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