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Cartographic design and the quality of climate change maps

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Climatic Change (2009) 95:219–230<br />

DOI 10.1007/s10584-008-9519-5<br />

<strong>Cartographic</strong> <strong>design</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>quality</strong><br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>maps</strong><br />

Jean E. McKendry · Gary E. Machlis<br />

Received: 13 February 2008 / Accepted: 22 September 2008 / Published online: 21 November 2008<br />

© Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2008<br />

Abstract Maps are essential in <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> research <strong>and</strong> policymaking, <strong>and</strong> are<br />

primary tools for communicating <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> information to <strong>the</strong> public. The<br />

consequences <strong>of</strong> cartographic <strong>design</strong> are potentially significant to underst<strong>and</strong>ing<br />

<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>and</strong> effectively informing policymakers. Yet, <strong>the</strong> cartographic<br />

<strong>design</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>quality</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>maps</strong> have not been critically assessed nor<br />

systematically evaluated. We suggest that evaluating <strong>the</strong> <strong>quality</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong><br />

<strong>maps</strong> is both timely <strong>and</strong> essential, <strong>and</strong> <strong>of</strong>fer one approach as a demonstration. We use<br />

cartographic <strong>design</strong> principles to evaluate a ‘high visibility’ <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> map from<br />

<strong>the</strong> 2007 report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our specific<br />

goals are to demonstrate <strong>the</strong> need <strong>and</strong> value <strong>of</strong> cartographic critique, describe how<br />

such evaluation can be accomplished, <strong>and</strong> make a case for cartographers’ engagement<br />

with <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> scientists in mapping activities. We suggest a research <strong>and</strong><br />

policy agenda for <strong>the</strong> cartographic evaluation <strong>and</strong> <strong>design</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>maps</strong>.<br />

1 Introduction<br />

Maps are essential to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> research <strong>and</strong> policymaking, <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir use is<br />

substantial: Working Group I <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change<br />

(IPCC) included over 130 <strong>maps</strong> in its 2007 report (IPCC 2007a). Climate <strong>change</strong><br />

<strong>maps</strong> are used by <strong>the</strong> scientific community to display results <strong>of</strong> general circulation<br />

models (GCMs), projected sea level rise, temperature <strong>change</strong>, migration <strong>of</strong> flora <strong>and</strong><br />

fauna habitat ranges, <strong>and</strong> more. Policymakers use <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>maps</strong> to compare<br />

J. E. McKendry · G. E. Machlis<br />

College <strong>of</strong> Natural Resources, University <strong>of</strong> Idaho,<br />

Moscow, ID 83844-1133, USA<br />

J. E. McKendry (B)<br />

c/o AAAS, 1200 New York Avenue, NW (Room 637),<br />

Washington, DC 20005, USA<br />

e-mail: jeanm@uidaho.edu


220 Climatic Change (2009) 95:219–230<br />

costs/benefits <strong>of</strong> adaptive responses, analyze policy options, <strong>and</strong> develop mitigation<br />

plans. Maps are also primary tools for communicating <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> information to<br />

<strong>the</strong> public.<br />

Hence, an important question arises for <strong>the</strong> producers <strong>and</strong> users <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong><br />

<strong>maps</strong>: what is <strong>the</strong> <strong>quality</strong> <strong>of</strong> cartographic <strong>design</strong> used in <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>maps</strong>? Here<br />

‘<strong>quality</strong>’ refers not to <strong>the</strong> accuracy or reliability <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> underlying data but to how<br />

data are cartographically displayed. The question is relevant because: (1) <strong>maps</strong>, including<br />

<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>maps</strong>, are increasingly made by individuals not trained in map<br />

<strong>design</strong>, (2) poor map <strong>design</strong> can hinder effective data analysis, underst<strong>and</strong>ing, <strong>and</strong><br />

decision-making, <strong>and</strong> (3) poorly <strong>design</strong>ed <strong>maps</strong> can distort information <strong>and</strong> mislead<br />

users (see Lilley 2007; Cassettari 2007; Carter2004; McKendry 2000; Monmonier<br />

1996).<br />

Mapmaking <strong>and</strong> cartography have been transformed by technology (see Arikawa<br />

et al. 2007; Gartner et al. 2007; Monmonier 2007; Butler2006; Taylor <strong>and</strong> Caquard<br />

2006). These technological developments have made it easier to produce <strong>maps</strong>.<br />

Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, Global Positioning Systems<br />

(GPS), interactive web mapping (including ‘mashups’), inexpensive computing<br />

platforms, <strong>and</strong> plentiful data <strong>and</strong> data delivery options have made mapmaking<br />

a commonplace activity beyond <strong>the</strong> realm <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> trained cartographer. Today’s<br />

mapmakers <strong>of</strong>ten do not have specialized education or training in <strong>the</strong> principles <strong>of</strong><br />

cartographic <strong>design</strong>. As a result, <strong>maps</strong> made by non-cartographers vary in <strong>quality</strong><br />

(as do <strong>maps</strong> by cartographers, <strong>of</strong> course), <strong>and</strong> are <strong>of</strong>ten poorly <strong>design</strong>ed (Cassettari<br />

2007;Plewe2007; Monmonier 2006; Field 2005;Wood<strong>and</strong>Keller1996).<br />

The consequences <strong>of</strong> poor <strong>quality</strong> map <strong>design</strong> can be significant. Maps have <strong>the</strong><br />

power to inform or misinform, lead or mislead, clarifyorconfuse through <strong>the</strong> use<br />

or misuse <strong>of</strong> <strong>design</strong> principles (Lilley 2007;Carter2004; McKendry 2000; Buttenfield<br />

1996; Monmonier 1995; Buttenfield <strong>and</strong> Beard 1991; Petchenik 1983). For example,<br />

Tufte (1990, 1983) analyzes a broad range <strong>of</strong> information graphics (including charts,<br />

diagrams, graphs, tables, <strong>and</strong> <strong>maps</strong>) <strong>and</strong> documents <strong>the</strong> prevalence <strong>of</strong> ‘graphic<br />

mediocrity’ (due to lack <strong>of</strong> skill). Importantly, he describes how <strong>the</strong> <strong>quality</strong> <strong>of</strong> graphic<br />

<strong>design</strong> can directly impact decision-making by revealing or obscuring information<br />

(Tufte 1997).<br />

Given <strong>the</strong> urgent challenges created by <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> importance <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>maps</strong> in <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> research <strong>and</strong> policymaking, <strong>the</strong> role <strong>of</strong> map <strong>design</strong> deserves<br />

attention. Surprisingly, <strong>the</strong> cartographic <strong>design</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>quality</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>maps</strong><br />

have not been critically assessed nor systematically evaluated.<br />

We suggest that evaluating <strong>the</strong> <strong>quality</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>maps</strong> is both timely<br />

<strong>and</strong> essential. We <strong>of</strong>fer one approach as a demonstration. First, we select a ‘high<br />

visibility’ <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> map to evaluate, in this case a map used in <strong>the</strong> “Summary<br />

for Policymakers” report issued by Working Group II <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> IPCC (IPCC 2007b).<br />

We <strong>the</strong>n present a brief overview <strong>of</strong> selected cartographic <strong>design</strong> principles that<br />

can be used to evaluate this <strong>and</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>maps</strong>. This overview is not<br />

a comprehensive ‘primer’ on cartographic <strong>design</strong>; <strong>the</strong>re are many resources available<br />

to introduce cartographic <strong>design</strong> (see Section 3 below). The purpose <strong>of</strong> this overview<br />

is to provide specific examples <strong>of</strong> agreed-upon <strong>design</strong> principles established through<br />

cartographic research. Next, we systematically apply <strong>the</strong>se cartographic principles<br />

to <strong>the</strong> selected <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> map <strong>and</strong> report <strong>the</strong> results. We conclude with a<br />

proposed research <strong>and</strong> policy agenda for <strong>the</strong> systematic cartographic evaluation <strong>of</strong>


Climatic Change (2009) 95:219–230 221<br />

<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>maps</strong>. We acknowledge that this small case study approach is limited.<br />

However, our specific goals are to demonstrate <strong>the</strong> need <strong>and</strong> value <strong>of</strong> cartographic<br />

critique, describe how such evaluation can be accomplished, <strong>and</strong> make a case for<br />

cartographers’ engagement with <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> scientists in mapping activities.<br />

Figure SPM.1. Locations <strong>of</strong> significant <strong>change</strong>s in data series <strong>of</strong> physical systems (snow, ice <strong>and</strong> frozen ground; hydrology; <strong>and</strong> coastal processes) <strong>and</strong><br />

biological systems (terrestrial, marine, <strong>and</strong> freshwater biological systems), are shown toge<strong>the</strong>r with surface air temperature <strong>change</strong>s over <strong>the</strong> period 1970-2004.<br />

A subset <strong>of</strong> about 29,000 data series was selected from about 80,000 data series from 577 studies. These met <strong>the</strong> following criteria: (1) ending in 1990 or later;<br />

(2) spanning a period <strong>of</strong> at least 20 years; <strong>and</strong> (3) showing a significant <strong>change</strong> in ei<strong>the</strong>r direction, as assessed in individual studies. These data series are from<br />

about 75 studies (<strong>of</strong> which about 70 are new since <strong>the</strong> Third Assessment) <strong>and</strong> contain about 29,000 data series, <strong>of</strong> which about 28,000 are from European<br />

studies.White areas do not contain sufficient observational <strong>climate</strong> data to estimate a temperature trend. The 2 x 2 boxes show <strong>the</strong> total number <strong>of</strong> data series<br />

with significant <strong>change</strong>s (top row) <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> percentage <strong>of</strong> those consistent with warming (bottom row) for (i) continental regions: North America (NAM), Latin<br />

America (LA), Europe (EUR), Africa (AFR), Asia (AS), Australia <strong>and</strong> New Zeal<strong>and</strong> (ANZ), <strong>and</strong> Polar Regions (PR) <strong>and</strong> (ii) global-scale: Terrestrial (TER), Marine<br />

<strong>and</strong> Freshwater (MFW), <strong>and</strong> Global (GLO). The numbers <strong>of</strong> studies from <strong>the</strong> seven regional boxes (NAM, …, PR) do not add up to <strong>the</strong> global (GLO) totals<br />

because numbers from regions except Polar do not include <strong>the</strong> numbers related to Marine <strong>and</strong> Freshwater (MFW) systems. Locations <strong>of</strong> large-area marine<br />

<strong>change</strong>s are not shown on <strong>the</strong> map. [Working Group II Fourth Assessment F1.8, F1.9; Working Group I Fourth Assessment F3.9b].<br />

Fig. 1 Map, legend, <strong>and</strong> caption <strong>of</strong> Figure SPM.1., reprinted from IPCC Working Group II<br />

“Summary for Policymakers” (2007b, p. 10), used with permission


222 Climatic Change (2009) 95:219–230<br />

2 Selecting a <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> map to evaluate<br />

A <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> map from a recent report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> IPCC was selected to demonstrate<br />

how <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>maps</strong> can be cartographically evaluated. Selecting an IPCC<br />

map is appropriate for several reasons. Since 1988, <strong>the</strong> IPCC has released four<br />

comprehensive scientific assessments <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>. IPCC reports are considered<br />

by policymakers <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> scientific community to be a definitive source <strong>of</strong> information<br />

on <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>and</strong> its impacts (Kintisch <strong>and</strong> Kerr 2007).<br />

The map shown in Fig. 1 was published in <strong>the</strong> “Summary for Policymakers”<br />

completed by Working Group II for Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation <strong>and</strong><br />

Vulnerability. Contribution <strong>of</strong> Working Group II to <strong>the</strong> Fourth Assessment Report <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007b, p.10).Thetitle<strong>of</strong><strong>the</strong><br />

map is “Changes in physical <strong>and</strong> biological systems <strong>and</strong> surface temperature 1970–<br />

2004.” Figure 1 is <strong>the</strong> only map included in this summary report for policymakers.<br />

We consider this map appropriate for a case example given that: (1) <strong>the</strong> IPCC is a<br />

legitimated source <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> information, (2) <strong>the</strong> IPCC’s fourth assessment<br />

report (AR4) is a major consensus technical effort to summarize current <strong>climate</strong><br />

<strong>change</strong> knowledge, (3) <strong>the</strong> policy summary is an important st<strong>and</strong>-alone document,<br />

<strong>and</strong> (4) Fig. 1 is <strong>the</strong> sole map in <strong>the</strong> policy summary approved by Working Group II.<br />

The map published in <strong>the</strong> report is 184 mm wide by 194 mm tall, accompanied by<br />

a caption 184 mm wide by 41 mm tall, <strong>and</strong> printed in color on a page 215 mm wide<br />

by 279 mm tall. The map was also made available as a separate color graphic (though<br />

without its title or caption) on <strong>the</strong> IPCC website (IPCC 2007b). Since its original<br />

publication, <strong>the</strong> map has been distributed through o<strong>the</strong>r reports <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> IPCC <strong>and</strong> in<br />

<strong>the</strong> public media in both its original <strong>and</strong> modified form.<br />

The map appears in <strong>the</strong> draft copy <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> “Summary for Policymakers <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

Syn<strong>the</strong>sis Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> IPCC Fourth Assessment Report”—<strong>the</strong> overall summary <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> IPCC’s work (IPCC 2007c). It was published in modified form in <strong>the</strong> Washington<br />

Post (print <strong>and</strong> online) on 18 November 2007, page A10 with <strong>the</strong> caption excluded,<br />

title <strong>change</strong>d, <strong>and</strong> legend edited <strong>and</strong> rearranged (Struck 2007). The map was adapted<br />

<strong>and</strong> split into two separate <strong>maps</strong> by <strong>the</strong> Organization <strong>of</strong> Ibero-American States<br />

(Organización de Estados Iberoamericanos 2007). The resulting two <strong>maps</strong> were<br />

posted on <strong>the</strong> organization’s website with substantial <strong>change</strong>s made to <strong>the</strong> legend<br />

(see http://www.oei.es/decada/presentacioneurop.htm).<br />

The color version <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> map published in <strong>the</strong> final summary report <strong>of</strong> Working<br />

Group II <strong>and</strong> shown in Fig. 1 is evaluated in this demonstration, downloaded from<br />

<strong>the</strong> IPCC website 21 November 2007 (IPCC 2007b, p. 10).<br />

3 Selected principles <strong>of</strong> cartography to use in evaluating <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>maps</strong><br />

Research <strong>and</strong> practice in <strong>the</strong> field <strong>of</strong> cartography have produced a set <strong>of</strong> fundamental<br />

principles that are essential to good cartographic <strong>design</strong>—principles that deal with<br />

map layout <strong>and</strong> symbolizing data <strong>and</strong> features. <strong>Cartographic</strong> <strong>design</strong> principles guide<br />

decisions about how to represent locations on a map <strong>and</strong> attributes <strong>of</strong> those locations,<br />

using graphic symbols such as color, size, shape, typography, <strong>and</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r symbols.<br />

Principles describe how points, lines, <strong>and</strong> areas should be symbolized based on<br />

<strong>the</strong> underlying data (i.e., attributes <strong>of</strong> features). For example, <strong>the</strong> selection <strong>of</strong>


Climatic Change (2009) 95:219–230 223<br />

Table 1 Selected principles for cartographic <strong>design</strong> <strong>and</strong> layout with descriptions (adapted from Brewer 2005 <strong>and</strong> Krygier <strong>and</strong> Wood 2005)<br />

<strong>Cartographic</strong> principle Description <strong>of</strong> cartographic principle<br />

Map projection All map projections have distortions (distance, area, direction, <strong>and</strong>/or shape). An equal-area map projection is a good selection for most<br />

small-scale <strong>maps</strong> (e.g., many world <strong>maps</strong>) <strong>and</strong> should be used for <strong>maps</strong> showing data distributions.<br />

Generalization Small-scale <strong>maps</strong> should show more area, less detail, <strong>and</strong> more generalization <strong>of</strong> features. Large-scale <strong>maps</strong> should show less area, more<br />

detail, <strong>and</strong> less generalization <strong>of</strong> features. The coastline <strong>of</strong> a country on a large-scale map is symbolized by a line with more detailed<br />

curves than <strong>the</strong> same coastline on a small-scale map.<br />

Data classification Qualitative data show differences in kind (e.g., forest versus urban l<strong>and</strong> cover). Qualitative data should be grouped so that features in<br />

<strong>the</strong> same group are more similar than dissimilar <strong>and</strong> features in different groups are more dissimilar than similar.<br />

Quantitative data show differences in amount (e.g., population density). Quantitative data should be grouped by specific external<br />

criteria (e.g., quantiles) or by <strong>the</strong> characteristics <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> data (e.g., natural breaks).<br />

Map layouta Focus Map layout should guide readers through <strong>the</strong> map elements <strong>and</strong> help <strong>the</strong>m focus on <strong>the</strong> most important parts <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> map.<br />

Visual variablesb Color hue Color hue (such as red, green, blue) should be used to categorize features that are qualitatively different, such as a river <strong>and</strong> a road.<br />

Color value Color value (or lightness <strong>of</strong> hue) should be used to represent quantitatively different data (ei<strong>the</strong>r rank-ordered data or numerical<br />

amounts), such as population density. Value is typically light for low numbers (e.g., light green) <strong>and</strong> dark for high numbers (e.g., dark<br />

green) in sequential datasets, such as a dataset <strong>of</strong> population <strong>change</strong> from 0% to 100%. For diverging data sets with an important<br />

midpoint (between negative <strong>and</strong> positive values), such as population <strong>change</strong> from −50% to +50%, hue <strong>and</strong> value can vary to show <strong>the</strong><br />

two directions in <strong>the</strong> data set. The midpoint from 0% to −50% can be symbolized using a light to dark color hue. The midpoint from<br />

0% to +50% can be symbolized using a different, complementary light to dark color hue.<br />

Color saturation Color saturation (or intensity <strong>of</strong> hue, such as bright red compared with a dull, gray red) can be used for qualitative or quantitative data.<br />

It is difficult to use on its own to symbolize data. Saturation is typically used to reinforce <strong>change</strong>s in value for quantitative data or to<br />

reinforce <strong>change</strong>s in hue for small areas on a map that are qualitatively different.<br />

Size Size should be used to represent quantitatively different data (ei<strong>the</strong>r rank-ordered data or numerical amounts). A larger square<br />

signifies a greater quantity than a smaller square.<br />

Shape Shape should be used to categorize features that are qualitatively different. A square is not more or less than a circle,<br />

but is different in kind.<br />

Visual hierarchy Visual hierarchy should emphasize <strong>the</strong> most important map elements. Less important elements should be less noticeable. Visual hierarchy<br />

should clearly communicate <strong>the</strong> intellectual hierarchy <strong>and</strong> purpose(s) <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> map.<br />

aFor Krygier <strong>and</strong> Wood (2005) ‘focus’ is one element <strong>of</strong> map layout that also includes map pieces (title, legend, border, etc.), balance (stability), <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> grid<br />

(underlying grid <strong>of</strong> vertical <strong>and</strong> horizontal lines that helps with balance).<br />

bBertin (1981) initially described seven visual variables. Cartographers have adapted <strong>and</strong> modified this list. Five visual variables are presented here.


224 Climatic Change (2009) 95:219–230<br />

appropriate color schemes is determined by whe<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong> attributes are qualitative<br />

(use different colors to symbolize different ecotypes) or quantitative (use <strong>the</strong> same<br />

color with variation from light to dark to symbolize <strong>change</strong>s in temperature over<br />

time). <strong>Cartographic</strong> principles guide decisions about how to group (‘classify’) data<br />

for representation. For example, a map showing temperature ranges may have<br />

temperature data assigned to groups using equal intervals (same data range for<br />

each class) or quantiles (same number <strong>of</strong> data points in each class). <strong>Cartographic</strong><br />

principles guide decisions about how to arrange all <strong>the</strong> graphic symbols included on<br />

a map so that <strong>the</strong>re is clarity in <strong>the</strong> overall <strong>design</strong> <strong>and</strong> layout. Numerous texts review<br />

<strong>and</strong> explain cartographic principles (see, for example, Slocum et al. 2005; Kimerling<br />

et al. 2001; Dent1999; Robinson et al. 1995; MacEachren1994; Monmonier 1993).<br />

There is strong consensus within <strong>the</strong> cartographic community about basic principles.<br />

Contemporary map <strong>design</strong> also dem<strong>and</strong>s underst<strong>and</strong>ing <strong>the</strong> constraints <strong>and</strong> opportunities<br />

determined by <strong>the</strong> media on which a map will be reproduced. For<br />

example, <strong>maps</strong> <strong>design</strong>ed for digital display are limited by screen resolution compared<br />

with <strong>maps</strong> <strong>design</strong>ed for printing on paper, <strong>and</strong> ‘endless zoom’ options carry with <strong>the</strong>m<br />

unique problems <strong>of</strong> data accuracy <strong>and</strong> cartographic <strong>design</strong> (see Lobben <strong>and</strong> Patton<br />

2003, for a comparison <strong>of</strong> <strong>design</strong> issues for digital <strong>and</strong> printed <strong>maps</strong>).<br />

Table 2 Selected introductory resources on cartographic <strong>design</strong><br />

Books (full citations are listed under references)<br />

Cynthia Brewer, Designing Better Maps: A Guide for GIS Users<br />

Borden Dent, Cartography: Thematic Map Design, 5th edition<br />

Jon Kimerling, Philip Muehrcke, <strong>and</strong> Juliana Muehrcke, Map Use: Reading, Analysis, <strong>and</strong><br />

Interpretation, 5th edition<br />

John Krygier <strong>and</strong> Denis Wood, Making Maps: A Visual Guide to Map Design for GIS<br />

Alan MacEachren, Some Truth with Maps: A Primer on Symbolization <strong>and</strong> Design<br />

Mark Monmonier, How to Lie with Maps, 2nd edition<br />

Terry Slocum, Robert McMaster, Fritz Kessler, <strong>and</strong> Hugh Howard, Thematic Cartography<br />

<strong>and</strong> Geographic Visualization, 2nd edition<br />

Journals<br />

<strong>Cartographic</strong> Perspectives (Journal <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> North American <strong>Cartographic</strong> Information Society;<br />

http://www.nacis.org)<br />

Cartography <strong>and</strong> Geographic Information Science (Journal <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Cartography <strong>and</strong> Geographic<br />

Information Society; http://www.cartogis.org)<br />

<strong>Cartographic</strong>a (Journal <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Canadian <strong>Cartographic</strong> Association; http://www.cca-acc.org/)<br />

The <strong>Cartographic</strong> Journal (Journal <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> British <strong>Cartographic</strong> Society;<br />

http://www.cartography.org.uk/)<br />

Websites<br />

http://www.colorbrewer.org<br />

(an interactive online tool <strong>design</strong>ed to assist in selecting good color schemes for <strong>maps</strong> <strong>and</strong><br />

o<strong>the</strong>r graphics)<br />

http://www.typebrewer.org/<br />

(an online tool <strong>design</strong>ed for people who want to learn more about map typography)<br />

http://www.progonos.com/furuti/MapProj/Normal/CartProp/cartProp.html<br />

(an introduction to map projections, with examples <strong>of</strong> distortions, <strong>and</strong> a discussion <strong>of</strong> matching<br />

projection to a map’s purpose)<br />

http://mappingcenter.esri.com/<br />

(a website that focuses on cartographic resources, examples, <strong>and</strong> assistance for users <strong>of</strong> ArcGIS)


Climatic Change (2009) 95:219–230 225<br />

Table 1 includes selected cartographic principles adapted from two recent books<br />

that focus on map <strong>design</strong> (Brewer 2005; Krygier <strong>and</strong> Wood 2005). Specifically,<br />

Table 1 describes principles concerning map projections, generalization, data classification,<br />

map layout, visual variables (such as color), visual hierarchy (important<br />

information is visually prominent in <strong>the</strong> map’s <strong>design</strong>), <strong>and</strong> more. The sources were<br />

selected because <strong>the</strong>ir focus is on teaching GIS users how to make better <strong>maps</strong>, <strong>and</strong><br />

can introduce non-cartographers to <strong>the</strong> basics <strong>of</strong> good map <strong>design</strong>.<br />

The list <strong>of</strong> principles, though not exhaustive, deals with common <strong>design</strong> issues<br />

encountered in mapping. For example, all <strong>maps</strong> displayed in two dimensions require<br />

ma<strong>the</strong>matical transformation <strong>of</strong> spherical coordinates to plane coordinates through<br />

<strong>the</strong> use <strong>of</strong> a map projection. All map projections have distortions <strong>of</strong> distance, area,<br />

direction, <strong>and</strong>/or shape. Such distortions are particularly noticeable on small-scale<br />

<strong>maps</strong>, such as <strong>maps</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> world. A map projection that preserves relative areas<br />

should be used for <strong>maps</strong> showing data distributions. While <strong>the</strong>se principles are basic<br />

<strong>and</strong> straightforward, <strong>the</strong>ir application in <strong>the</strong> overall <strong>design</strong> <strong>and</strong> layout <strong>of</strong> a map is<br />

<strong>of</strong>ten complex <strong>and</strong> challenging, can involve <strong>design</strong> trade<strong>of</strong>fs, <strong>and</strong> is a requirement<br />

for high <strong>quality</strong> map <strong>design</strong>.<br />

For <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> scientists interested in learning more about cartographic<br />

<strong>design</strong>, Table 2 provides a list <strong>of</strong> selected resources that include numerous examples<br />

<strong>of</strong> good <strong>and</strong> poor map <strong>design</strong>.<br />

4 Evaluating <strong>the</strong> IPCC <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> map: an example approach<br />

Figure 1 from <strong>the</strong> IPCC Working Group II summary report for policymakers<br />

can be evaluated using <strong>the</strong> selected principles in Table 1. Each principle can be<br />

systematically applied to <strong>the</strong> map with <strong>the</strong> result rated as good, satisfactory, orpoor<br />

followed by a brief explanation. We applied this method to <strong>the</strong> IPCC map shown in<br />

Fig. 1.<br />

Table 3 includes <strong>the</strong> rating <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> map for each selected principle with its<br />

explanation. Our preliminary <strong>and</strong> limited evaluation indicates that <strong>the</strong> map published<br />

in <strong>the</strong> summary report <strong>of</strong> Working Group II for policymakers ranges from poor to<br />

satisfactory in its use <strong>of</strong> selected cartographic principles. For example, we rated map<br />

layout <strong>and</strong> focus as poor. The map legend is complex <strong>and</strong> includes data not even<br />

displayed on <strong>the</strong> map, i.e., <strong>the</strong> number <strong>and</strong> percentage <strong>of</strong> significant <strong>change</strong>s in <strong>the</strong><br />

series <strong>of</strong> four-celled tables with arrows. The legend is also <strong>the</strong> same size as <strong>the</strong> map,<br />

<strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong>y visually compete with each o<strong>the</strong>r for importance on <strong>the</strong> page. Information<br />

about <strong>the</strong> white areas on <strong>the</strong> map is included in <strong>the</strong> caption but not in <strong>the</strong> map legend.<br />

Meaningful relationships between <strong>change</strong>s in physical <strong>and</strong> biological systems <strong>and</strong><br />

<strong>change</strong>s in surface temperature are difficult to see.<br />

We rated <strong>the</strong> generalization <strong>of</strong> features on <strong>the</strong> map as satisfactory. The map shows<br />

coastlines <strong>and</strong> boundaries between nations. The black linework to symbolize coastlines<br />

<strong>and</strong> boundaries is more detailed than needed for <strong>the</strong> scale <strong>of</strong> this map. The high<br />

level <strong>of</strong> detail for <strong>the</strong> sou<strong>the</strong>rn tip <strong>of</strong> Chile means that <strong>the</strong> black boundaries blend in<br />

with <strong>the</strong> point locations (blue circles with black outlines). Table 3 summarizes results<br />

for each <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> selected cartographic principles.<br />

Overall, our evaluation is that <strong>the</strong> map does not clearly <strong>and</strong> effectively display<br />

information about its intended topic, “<strong>change</strong>s in physical <strong>and</strong> biological systems <strong>and</strong>


226 Climatic Change (2009) 95:219–230<br />

Table 3 Results <strong>of</strong> evaluating map from IPCC working group II summary report using selected principles for cartographic <strong>design</strong> <strong>and</strong> layout<br />

<strong>Cartographic</strong> principle Rating Explanation<br />

Map projection Poor The map shows temperature <strong>and</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r statistical information. The projection should be equal-area. Instead, it is a<br />

cylindrical equidistant projection. Area is distorted as well as shape. The colored squares on <strong>the</strong> map are equal in size,<br />

but <strong>the</strong>y do not represent <strong>the</strong> same area on <strong>the</strong> earth.<br />

Generalization Satisfactory The map shows coastlines <strong>and</strong> boundaries <strong>of</strong> nations. The generalization <strong>of</strong> areas (nothing smaller than a country) is<br />

appropriate. Linework to symbolize <strong>the</strong> coastlines <strong>and</strong> boundaries is too detailed for <strong>the</strong> scale <strong>and</strong> purpose <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> map.<br />

Argentina, Chile, Antarctica, <strong>and</strong> Sou<strong>the</strong>ast Asia are examples where too much detail interferes with <strong>the</strong> areas<br />

<strong>and</strong> data being shown.<br />

Data classification Satisfactory The map displays quantitative <strong>and</strong> qualitative data that are classified. The observation locations for physical systems are<br />

combined into a single group. Observation locations for biological systems are combined into a single group. They are<br />

symbolized as qualitatively different groups using different color hues.<br />

The data on temperature range are classified into five groups, low to high. It is unknown how <strong>the</strong> class breaks were<br />

established. The reader can only determine that <strong>the</strong> data ranges for <strong>the</strong> classes are not equal in size. It is unclear in <strong>the</strong><br />

legend where class breaks begin <strong>and</strong> end as a single value is assigned to a break.<br />

Map layout<br />

Focus Poor The map lacks focus. The legend is complex (including data not even displayed on <strong>the</strong> map, i.e., <strong>the</strong> number <strong>and</strong><br />

percentage <strong>of</strong> significant <strong>change</strong>s in <strong>the</strong> series <strong>of</strong> four-celled tables with arrows). The legend is <strong>the</strong> same size as <strong>the</strong><br />

map, <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong>y visually compete with each o<strong>the</strong>r for importance on <strong>the</strong> page. The map is accompanied by a detailed<br />

caption. The reader must carefully read <strong>the</strong> caption first to underst<strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> legend <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong>n carefully read <strong>the</strong> legend in<br />

order to underst<strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> map. For example, information about <strong>the</strong> white areas on <strong>the</strong> map is included in <strong>the</strong> caption but<br />

not in <strong>the</strong> map legend.


Climatic Change (2009) 95:219–230 227<br />

Visual variables<br />

Color hue Satisfactory Point observations for physical <strong>and</strong> biological systems are distinguished by different color hues. This is appropriate for<br />

grouping qualitative features. It is unclear why <strong>the</strong> green circles have white borders on <strong>the</strong> map (white <strong>and</strong> black<br />

borders in <strong>the</strong> legend), while blue circles have black borders.<br />

Color value Poor The temperature data are quantitative <strong>and</strong> displayed using a color sequence that varies by color hue. It appears that a<br />

detailed spectral or ‘rainbow’ sequence, <strong>of</strong>ten used to symbolize many classes in a temperature range, has been<br />

simplified to five classes. The visual effects produced on <strong>the</strong> map are <strong>change</strong>s in color hue. It is challenging to view <strong>the</strong><br />

sequence in this quantitative dataset symbolized by colors that are qualitatively different, e.g., green, blue, yellow. The<br />

five classes <strong>of</strong> data should be displayed by varying color value (light to dark) or by using a diverging scheme around <strong>the</strong><br />

zero data point with color hue/color value <strong>change</strong>s for <strong>the</strong> two directions (negative <strong>and</strong> positive) in <strong>the</strong> data set.<br />

Color saturation NA Color saturation is not used to symbolize data on <strong>the</strong> map.<br />

Size Satisfactory Circle symbols <strong>of</strong> different sizes are appropriately used (small to big) to represent quantitative data. However, it is<br />

unclear why <strong>the</strong> size varies in Europe only.<br />

Shape NA Shape is not used to symbolize data on <strong>the</strong> map.<br />

Visual hierarchy Poor The visual hierarchy <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> map is poor. The relationship between observation locations <strong>and</strong> temperature is difficult to<br />

underst<strong>and</strong>. Blue circles (physical systems) completely cover green circles (biological systems) in most locations, while<br />

green circles cover blue ones in a few locations. Circles that only <strong>change</strong> size in Europe are confusing. Actual <strong>change</strong>s<br />

in physical <strong>and</strong> biological systems (emphasized in <strong>the</strong> map title <strong>and</strong> in <strong>the</strong> legend) are not displayed on <strong>the</strong> map. Also,<br />

<strong>the</strong> color hues <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> circles (blue <strong>and</strong> green) are very close to <strong>the</strong> blue <strong>and</strong> green color hues used to show<br />

temperature range.


228 Climatic Change (2009) 95:219–230<br />

surface temperatures 1970–2004.” For <strong>the</strong> only map published in an IPCC summary<br />

report for policymakers, <strong>the</strong> evaluation reveals specific issues <strong>of</strong> cartographic <strong>quality</strong><br />

with this ‘high-visibility’ map. Our evaluation is <strong>of</strong> course subjective, <strong>and</strong> reflects: (1)<br />

our choice <strong>of</strong> selected <strong>design</strong> principles, (2) <strong>the</strong> evaluation categories, (3) <strong>the</strong> lack <strong>of</strong><br />

multiple reviewers, <strong>and</strong> (4) <strong>the</strong> reviewers’ expertise in applying <strong>the</strong> <strong>design</strong> principles<br />

to <strong>the</strong> evaluated map. Never<strong>the</strong>less, this kind <strong>of</strong> cartographic evaluation can provide<br />

useful insights into <strong>the</strong> <strong>quality</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>maps</strong>.<br />

5 Toward a research <strong>and</strong> policy agenda for evaluating <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>maps</strong><br />

We have demonstrated how a <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> map can be evaluated. O<strong>the</strong>r <strong>climate</strong><br />

<strong>change</strong> <strong>maps</strong> are likely to vary in <strong>quality</strong> <strong>and</strong> could benefit from such evaluation.<br />

Poor <strong>quality</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>maps</strong> have implications for <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> research<br />

<strong>and</strong> policymaking. We suggest a modest but important agenda to improve <strong>the</strong><br />

cartographic <strong>quality</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>maps</strong>.<br />

(a) Systematic evaluation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> cartographic <strong>design</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>quality</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong><br />

<strong>maps</strong> should be undertaken to assess <strong>and</strong> improve <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>maps</strong>.<br />

Our evaluation was a preliminary demonstration. Evaluation methods should be<br />

refined to include: (a) carefully <strong>design</strong>ed sampling plans to select a population <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>maps</strong> to evaluate, (b) exp<strong>and</strong>ing <strong>the</strong> criteria (cartographic principles)<br />

to apply in <strong>the</strong> evaluations, including possible weighting <strong>of</strong> criteria, (c) assembling<br />

a panel <strong>of</strong> expert cartographers to assess map <strong>design</strong> using established evaluation<br />

techniques, <strong>and</strong> (d) developing more elaborate <strong>and</strong> varied evaluation rankings. Such<br />

evaluations could provide an important inventory <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> state <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong><br />

map <strong>design</strong>, identify key examples <strong>of</strong> good <strong>design</strong>, educate <strong>climate</strong> scientists about<br />

cartographic principles, <strong>and</strong> help target efforts to improve <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>maps</strong>.<br />

(b) The impact <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>maps</strong> on <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> research <strong>and</strong> policymaking<br />

should be researched to better underst<strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir specific role <strong>and</strong> influence.<br />

Such research on <strong>the</strong> impact <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>maps</strong> includes cartography <strong>of</strong> course,<br />

but could usefully extend to psychology, sociology, <strong>and</strong> political science. There are<br />

several key questions. How do <strong>maps</strong> influence or direct scientific efforts <strong>and</strong> research<br />

priorities? What assumptions do scientists make about <strong>the</strong> audiences for whom <strong>the</strong>y<br />

produce <strong>the</strong> <strong>maps</strong>, do <strong>the</strong>se assumptions need to <strong>change</strong>, <strong>and</strong> if so, how? How<br />

effective are <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>maps</strong> for syn<strong>the</strong>sizing <strong>and</strong> interpreting <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong><br />

data for policymakers? How are specific <strong>maps</strong> being used to guide decision-making?<br />

What are <strong>the</strong> implications <strong>of</strong> inserting inaccurate or misleading <strong>maps</strong> (purposefully<br />

or not) into <strong>the</strong> policymaking process? What are <strong>the</strong> cumulative effects <strong>of</strong> <strong>maps</strong><br />

produced by scientific organizations when reprinted <strong>and</strong> propagated through <strong>the</strong><br />

popular media (un<strong>change</strong>d or modified)? How can <strong>the</strong> cartographic <strong>design</strong> <strong>and</strong><br />

persuasiveness <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>maps</strong> be improved? Research to address <strong>the</strong>se<br />

questions can illuminate <strong>the</strong> role <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>maps</strong>, help identify key traits<br />

<strong>of</strong> effective <strong>maps</strong>, <strong>and</strong> improve research, policy analysis, <strong>and</strong> public communication<br />

related to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>.


Climatic Change (2009) 95:219–230 229<br />

(c) Climate <strong>change</strong> scientists should encourage cartographers to become more directly<br />

engaged with <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> research <strong>and</strong> cartographers should be responsive<br />

to such engagement.<br />

Cartographers can <strong>and</strong> should be more effectively engaged in <strong>climate</strong> science activities.<br />

Climate <strong>change</strong> research teams should include cartographers or personnel<br />

well-trained in cartography. Climate <strong>change</strong> scientists <strong>and</strong> cartographers should work<br />

collaboratively to actively advocate <strong>and</strong> implement good <strong>quality</strong> map layout <strong>and</strong><br />

<strong>design</strong>. Potential collaborations include (but are not limited to) training <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong><br />

research teams, regular map critiques, <strong>and</strong> experimentation with new cartographic<br />

methods, technologies, <strong>and</strong> map <strong>design</strong>s.<br />

6 Conclusion<br />

Climate <strong>change</strong> is <strong>the</strong> most pervasive environmental challenge facing contemporary<br />

societies. Its local, regional, <strong>and</strong> global impacts are (<strong>and</strong> will increasingly be) extraordinary<br />

in scope, complexity, <strong>and</strong> consequence. The scientific community has a wideranging<br />

<strong>and</strong> intense research effort underway, focused on <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> dynamics,<br />

impacts, adaptation, <strong>and</strong> mitigation alternatives. The results increasingly depend<br />

on <strong>maps</strong> as tools <strong>of</strong> visualization <strong>and</strong> analysis, instruments <strong>of</strong> policy <strong>and</strong> decisionmaking,<br />

<strong>and</strong> ways <strong>of</strong> communicating <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> science to <strong>the</strong> public. As we have<br />

suggested, <strong>maps</strong> have <strong>the</strong> power to inform or misinform, lead or mislead, clarify or<br />

confuse through <strong>the</strong> use or misuse <strong>of</strong> <strong>design</strong> principles. Successful application <strong>of</strong> good<br />

map <strong>design</strong> is a necessary step in <strong>the</strong> development <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> sciences.<br />

Acknowledgements The authors thank <strong>the</strong> anonymous reviewers for <strong>the</strong>ir review <strong>and</strong> comment on<br />

earlier drafts <strong>of</strong> this manuscript. Wayde Morse <strong>and</strong> Jim Snyder provided valued assistance. An earlier<br />

version <strong>of</strong> this paper was presented at <strong>the</strong> 23rd International <strong>Cartographic</strong> Conference, Moscow,<br />

Russian Federation, August 2007.<br />

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