1 Oscar Sheynin History of Statistics Berlin, 2012 ISBN 978-3 ...

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1 Oscar Sheynin History of Statistics Berlin, 2012 ISBN 978-3 ...

conclusion was three times more probable than the former opinion.However, he assumed that the prior probabilities of the authorship of Bayesand Saunderson were the same. This means that the extra-mathematicalarguments (for example, the evidence of Price, a close friend of Bayes) werenot considered at all. In addition, not only a honest personality asSaunderson, but almost any pretender will be able to claim equal prior rightswith an established author (or a politician) of the past. For my part, I thinkthat it was Bayes himself who communicated to Hartley the solution of theinverse problem.41

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