3 years ago



In a more recent paper

In a more recent paper by Delbosc and Currie (2013a), an overview is given of thechanges in the licensing rate among young people in each country that has experienceda decline and the years of observation (see Table 2). In addition to the countriesexplored by Sivak and Schoettle, Delbosc and Currie (2013a), in their review, alsoinclude findings from Australia, France and Germany (see Table 2). In Germany andFrance, the driver’s licence rate among young people has remained more or less stableduring the observed period, although a minor decrease has been observed (2002-2008and 1994-2008, respectively).The early studies in Sweden and Norway (Krantz, 1999; and Nordbakke, 2002,respectively) also showed that the decline in the driver’s licence rate among youngpeople during the 1990s was larger in the bigger cities and counties with bigger citiesthan in more rural areas and counties without larger cities, but both studies show a clearreduction in all counties. Both studies show that while the decline was largest among 18and 19 year-old young persons, there was also a decline among the “older” youngpeople (20-24 years old) during the 1990s. Krantz (1999) also found that the decline inthe driver’s licence rate was different among young people according to theiremployment/student status; while the driver’s licence rate declined only marginallyamong young people (18-24 year-old) who were employed during the 1990s, the declinein the driver’s licence rate among young people (18-24 years old) who were studentswas large – it fell from 50% in 1989 to 35% in 1998.Moreover, a decline was observed for both young men and young women in bothcountries. An analysis based on the national travel survey in Sweden (Vilhelmson,2004) shows that while 79.1% of men aged 18-24 held a driver’s licence in 1978, theproportion of the same group was 56.8% in 2001. For young women aged 18-24 yearsthe proportion holding a driver’s licence in 1978 was 57.9% while it was 50.3% in2001. In Norway, the decrease (measured in per cent, not percentage points) in thedriver’s licence holding was more or less the same for young men and young womenaged 18-24 years old during the 1990s (Nordbakke, 2002).We have not been able to identify any studies on future prognoses and evaluations offuture trends on the driver’s license development among young people. However, inSweden, a model is constructed that can be used make prognoses about the driver’slicense rate among young people in Sweden (Cedersund & Henriksson 2006). In thismodel, the cost of acquiring a driver’s license and the share of young people with ahigher education (above college education) is used as explanatory variables for thelicensing rate within a given age group. The model proves to be good in explaining thehistorical driver’s license rate in Sweden. Based on this model, Cedersund andHenriksson (2006), calculate the driver’s license rate among young people aged 18-24years old (a calculation is done for each year of birth in this age group) in 2009 to 2015within nine different future scenarios. The scenarios are built up from three differentfuture scenarios for the cost of acquiring a driving license rate (no change, smallchange, large change) and from three scenarios of future share of 24 years old holding ahigher education (no change, small change, large change). The model seems useful tomake predictions about future driving license rate among young people in Sweden,although as pointed out by the authors themselves, future prognoses needs to takeaccount of ethical background as well, especially if prognoses are to be made fordifferent regions. However, the model does not increase our understanding of why therehas been a decline in the driving license rate among young adults. From the model, onecan easily draw the conclusion that the decline in Sweden relates to economic aspects(more students, lesser financial ability, together with increased costs for acquiring a16 VTI rapport 824A

driver’s license); the model cannot rule out whether the decline also relate to reducedneeds for a driving license (e.g. due to urbanization) and/or to decline in the preferenceof and interest for the driver’s license/car. Moreover, there is a need for more researchon whether the model also applies for other countries.2.5 Getting a driver’s licence at a young age – current statusIn order to increase our understanding of why young people hold a driver’s license ornot, this section describes the results from two different reviews: 1) a review of crosssectionalstudies on the association between objective characteristics of a young personand driver’s licence holding, and 2) a review of studies on subjective reasons for notholding a driver’s licence.2.5.1 Who among young people are more likely to hold a driver’s licence?Young women are less likely than young men to hold a driver’s licence in twocountries; in Sweden (Cedersund & Henriksson, 2006; Forward et al., 2010) and inNorway (Hjorthol, 2012; Nordbakke & Ruud, 2006). The likelihood of holding adriver’s licence also increases with age (Cedersund & Henriksson, 2006; Forward et al.,2010; Nordbakke & Ruud, 2006).The costs related to getting a driver’s licence and learning how to drive are high inmany countries. Hence, having driving lessons often requires some financial ability,either personally or within the family. Moreover, getting a car, and not least maintainingit (fuel, road taxes, insurance), requires a certain degree of financial ability. Researchhas shown that whether a person holds a driver’s licence varies according to theirincome, also when controlling for other factors (Delbosc & Currie, 2012a; Licaj et al.,2012). Other indicators of financial ability are educational level (as those who havehigher education are likely to have higher incomes) and employment status; severalstudies have shown that driver’s licence holding among young people varies with theseindicators: In an analysis of the annual national travel survey (1994/95/96) in Sweden,Krantz (1999) found that young people aged 18-24 years who were full-time orpart-time employed were more likely to hold a driver’s licence than those whowere not employed. Krantz (1999) found that students are less likely to hold adriver’s licence than those who are unemployed. In a more recent analysis based on national statistics on young people aged 20-29 years from Sweden suggests that young people who have primary andsecondary education are less likely to hold a driver’s licence than those whohave higher education – 35% versus 70% (Karlsson, 2012). 2 Similar results can be found in a study among 200 young people aged 17-25 inMelbourne (Delbosc & Currie, 2012a) and in a study among people aged 17-20years living in the UK (Noble, 2005).The study by Delbosc and Currie (2012a) also suggests that those who live alone or areliving with roommates are less likely to hold a driver’s licence than those who live withtheir parents or a spouse/partner. One can expect that those who are living with parentsoften will have greater access to a car in the household and/or a lower level of livingcosts. Living with a spouse/partner will increase the financial strength of a person, bothas a consequence of shared living costs and shared costs related to maintaining a car in2The numbers are read out from a figure and might not be 100% per cent accurate.VTI rapport 824A 17

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