Polyester & Cotton: Unequal Competitors - AFCOT

afcot.org
  • No tags were found...

Polyester & Cotton: Unequal Competitors - AFCOT

Polyester & Cotton: Unequal CompetitorsAFCOT – 6 October 2011 – DeauvilleJames MillsBusiness Manager, Polyester & IntermediatesTecnon OrbiChem


AFCOT 2011WORLD FIBRE DEMAND vs GDP - 1960-2009Demand (Million Tons)7565R 2 = 0.984R 2 = 0.97955453525155,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000GDP (Billion 2000 $)Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


AFCOT 2011WORLD FIBRES DEMAND 1900-2010Million Tons80706050Synthetic FibresCellulosic FibresNatural Fibres403020100190019101920193019401950196019701980199020002010Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


AFCOT 2011WORLD PER CAPITA FIBRES CONSUMPTIONKg/Head10.0Synthetic FibresCellulosic FibresNatural Fibres5.00.0190019101920193019401950196019701980199020002010Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


AFCOT 2011WORLD FIBRE PRODUCTION 1980-2025Million Metric Tons160140120100806040WoolCottonCellulosic FibresPolypropyleneFibreAcrylic FibrePolyamide FibrePolyester Fibre2001980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


AFCOT 2011WORLD PRODUCTION 2010: COTTON vs POLYESTERCottonPolyesterStaple + Filament2010Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


AFCOT 2011WORLD PRODUCTION 2020: COTTON vs POLYESTERCottonPolyesterStaple + Filament2020Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


AFCOT 2011UNEQUAL COMPETITORS: COTTON vs POLYESTER• Global cotton production is approaching its physical maximum (ICAC).• Per capita demand for fibres continues to grow with rising GDP.• Global population continues to increase.• Synthetic fibre production is already greater than cotton production and willcontinue increasing to satisfy growing demand.• By 2020, polyester production will be 2.5 times greater than cotton production.• The cotton markets is more vulnerable to competition from polyester than viceversa.Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


AFCOT 2011WORLD POLYESTER STAPLE PRODUCTIONMillion Metric Tons40363228242016128ChinaNortheast AsiaS & SE AsiaME & AfricaEast EuropeWest EuropeSouth AmericaNorth America401980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


AFCOT 2011POLYESTER STAPLE SUMMARY• World production of polyester staple has grown at an average rate of 6.5% peryear during the past decade.• The world situation is dominated by China, which accounted for almost 65% ofthe global total in 2010, and other Asian countries ( together 90%)• Global production of polyester staple is forecast to rise by an average of 5.4%per year through 2025, compared with 4.1% for all fibres.• The use of recycled raw materials for the production of polyester staple isgrowing and accounts for almost 50% in some regions.• High cotton prices have encouraged substitution with polyester staple, but thistrend is slowing as cotton prices decline.• Polyester staple fibre is easily interchanged with cotton.Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


AFCOT 2011WORLD POLYESTER FILAMENT PRODUCTIONMillion Metric Tons64564840322416ChinaNortheast AsiaS & SE AsiaME & AfricaEast EuropeWest EuropeSouth AmericaNorth America801980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


AFCOT 2011POLYESTER FILAMENT SUMMARY• World production of polyester filament has increased by an average of 8.2% paduring the past decade.• As with staple, China dominates global polyester filament production,accounting for 72% of the global total in 2010.• Global filament production is expected to grow at an average annual rate of7.2% through 2025, driven by China and to a lesser extent India.• Filament production has declined by 9.4% in West Europe over the past decade.• Production of bulked continuous filament for carpets in the US is growing, buttotal polyester filament production declined by 1.8% from 2001 to 2010.• Use of recycled raw materials in filament is not as extensive as in staple butcontinues to grow rapidly from a small base.Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


AFCOT 2011WORLD ACRYLIC FIBRE PRODUCTIONMillion Metric Tons3.02.52.01.51.0ChinaNortheast AsiaS & SE AsiaME & AfricaEast EuropeWest EuropeSouth AmericaNorth America0.50.01980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


AFCOT 2011WORLD POLYPROPYLENE FIBRE PRODUCTIONMillion Metric Tons8.07.06.05.04.03.02.0ChinaNortheast AsiaS & SE AsiaME & AfricaEast EuropeWest EuropeSouth AmericaNorth America1.00.01980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


AFCOT 2011WORLD POLYAMIDE PRODUCTIONMillion Metric Tons5.04.03.02.01.0ChinaNortheast AsiaS & SE AsiaME & AfricaEast EuropeWest EuropeSouth AmericaNorth America0.01980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


AFCOT 2011WORLD CELLULOSIC FIBRE PRODUCTIONMillion Metric Tons7.06.05.04.03.02.0ChinaNortheast AsiaS & SE AsiaME & AfricaEast EuropeWest EuropeSouth AmericaNorth America1.00.01980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


AFCOT 2011SYNTHETIC FIBRES SUMMARY• Polyester production is expected to continue growing faster than that of anyother synthetic fibre.• Both acrylic and polypropylene fibre have declined in their share of globalproduction due to higher raw material prices and will continue to besubstituted by polyester in the short term and cotton in the longer term .• Polyamide, substitution of which is largely complete after 40 years, is expectedto maintain its position based on technical requirements.• Production of cellulosic fibres is expected to continue increasing as demandstrengthens in both textile and nonwoven applications.• Bio-based and recycled materials, particularly for polyester, will increase inimportance. This is a big advantage over cotton.Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


AFCOT 2011WORLD COTTON PRODUCTIONMillion Metric Tons2826AnnualProduction24222018161412101980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


AFCOT 2011WORLD COTTON PRODUCTIONMillion Metric Tons28262422HistoricalForecast2018161412102000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


AFCOT 2011COTTON vs POLYESTER STAPLE PRICESDollars per Ton5,0004,5004,0003,500Polyester Staple1.4 den ChinaCotton OutlookAsia ‘A’ Index3,0002,5002,0001,5001,00050002001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Source: Tecnon OrbiChem & Cotton Outlook


AFCOT 2011US DOE WTI CRUDE OIL PRICES$/bbl1501401301201101009080706050403020100ActualForecast2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017Source: US Department of Energy


AFCOT 2011SUMMARY• Polyester has taken over from cotton as the dominant fibre, but cost andavailability still play a significant role in inter-fibre competition.• High oil prices and abundant cotton reduced demand for synthetic fibresduring 2006/7. Cotton prices and demand benefitted.• Demand and prices for both polyester and cotton suffered during the globaleconomic recession after 2008.• High cotton prices have underpinned a strong recovery in synthetic fibremarkets, especially polyester, from mid-2009.• An increase in cotton supply and lower cotton prices will slow the growth ofpolyester in the next few years.• Rising oil prices will also discourage new investment in polyester production,creating opportunities for cotton as a substitute.Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


AFCOT 2011THEMES TO DEVELOP• To what extent will polyester recycling help to moderate the average cost ofpolyester products in relation to higher crude oil prices?• How quickly will polyester producers move towards plant-based feedstocks?• Will polyester and cotton eventually compete for scarce agricultural land?Source: Tecnon OrbiChem


…..your source of expertchemical industry knowledge

More magazines by this user
Similar magazines