fo052006 the Megatrends Matter issueFO/futureorientation #5 2006Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
“Havingto be rightkeeps youfrom questioning,correctingand changingyourself.”JOHN NAISBITT, who coined the term ‘megatrends’ in the bestseller Megatrends (1982). Meet him on page 15
Dear reader,THE PROBABLE FUTURES AND THE PREFERABLE. “What is the wind worth if we haveno direction?” So wrote one of the old Roman poets. Thousands of years ago, Romans andGreeks, and philosophers and poets were already thinking about the future and change.They spoke and wrote of hope and fear. “Thinking, hoping and fearing the future are partof the life of a human being,” writes Eleonora Masini – the world’s first female professor offutures research. In the article “The Role of Futures Studies in a Global Society”, she continues:“The wind, the rapidity of change is with us but do we know in what direction tosteer our spaceship earth?”You can met the Italian Eleanora Masini on page 48, and in the rest of this FO/futureorientation,you can meet some of the most important and respected futurists in the world.Some are long dead, while others are still working full time to create awareness of whatthe future means for you and me, our companies, society and private life today. As AlvinToffler, my personal role model (and that of many others), is quoted as saying ”If you don’tdevelop a strategy of your own, you become a part of someone else’s strategy.”You can also meet the man who coined the phrase “Spaceship Earth.” His name wasBuckminster Fuller and he helped blaze the trail for “out of the box” thinking, and so isexceptionally important to us all.When you read the theme articles, think about the difference between the probablefuture, which is expressed by megatrends, and the preferable future. Because even thoughmegatrends tell us a lot about what we already know about the future, the future is never agiven. You can choose to react to megatrends such as prosperity, globalization and individualizationas you want.We need the future to be human – to exist today and tomorrow. Read, in this FO/futureorientation, about the most important megatrends and the probably futures, and considerwhat your preferable future is – for yourself, your company, or organization.FO/futureorientation is back before the holidays with new perspectives on the future.The theme for the year’s last issue is New Business Models. I can already reveal that wehave in mind to tell you about the best-kept business secrets.Gitte Larsen, Editor
CONTENTSTHEME: MEGATRENDS MATTERWHY MEGATRENDS MATTERBY GITTE LARSEN..............................................................................8Megatrends are the great forces in societal development that willvery likely affect the future in all areas the next 10-15 years. Manycompanies and organizations use megatrends in their strategicwork. In the next few pages, you can gain an overview over the 10most important megatrends as we head toward 2020.TRENDS, MEGATRENDS – AND SUPERTREND?JOHAN PETER PALUDANS COMMENTS ..............................................14Trends, megatrends and – could it be – a supertrend? Read aboutthe mother of all trends.INTERVIEW WITH JOHN NAISBITTBY GITTE LARSEN............................................................................15THE NEXT MEGATREND: SOCIAL GROWTHBY SØREN STEEN OLSEN OG STEEN SVENDSEN.................................24The new Megatrend, social growth, will affect the agenda at socialand market levels in the next 10-15 years. For the time being, justa few pioneering companies have drawn the outlines of the nextphase of social responsibility and are moving from Corporate SocialResponsibility (CSR) to Corporate Social Innovation (CSI).MORE EARLY WARNINGBY TROELS THEILL ERIKSEN..............................................................28Early Warning Systems are already today an important competitiveparameter for companies and organizations and the need for themwill increase in the coming years. Read about why and get examplesof how Early Warning Systems are used today and how they will beused in the future.PRIVACY: RED COAT, BLACK COATBY PIERS FAWKES ...........................................................................30”Wrapped in his black coat, to anyone who spots him, Steve looksparanoid – trying to hide. In fact, Steve doesn’t just look paranoid.He is paranoid. Paranoid every time he swipes his card to get intowork, every time he has to carry a mobile phone, every time hechats on the web, every time he removes the last can of soda fromhis fridge. He’s being watched. He knows it.” Read the rest of thispostcard from the future, and American trendspotter Piers Fawkesthoughts about how surveillance society can be turned to the advantageof consumers.A LOOK INTO THE FUTURE OF DANISH MEAT PROCESSINGBY GITTE LARSEN ............................................................................................ 33How do you communicate, to all the employees of the meatprocessing industry, two of several possible scenarios for future productionconditions? And why are employers and the labor organizationdoing it together? Read the interview with Danish Crown andsee an excerpt of the brochure that will be published in November.15,000 copies will be printed.OUTSIDE THEME:THE SCANDINAVIAN WAYBY TROELS THEILL ERIKSEN, MARTIN KRUSE OG GITTE LARSEN ............. 52The Scandinavian countries’ labor and education policies, managementstyle, and ability to innovate have in recent years been populararound the world. Foreign politicians and many others have been senthere to learn how we do it. Read about what Scandinavian managementis capable of, and about the challenges the management stylefaces if the Scandinavian countries are to remain in the lead.CHALLENGE FROM THE EASTBY GERT HOLMGAARD NIELSEN........................................................56China is the market of the future. In theory, it has been for the pastcouple of centuries. Now it’s a reality. Western companies need to takea close look at Chinese business and management cultures if theyare to have any hope of long-term success in such a culturally foreignmarket. One of the most important challenges is to learn how to useboth halves of the brain.´07 MANBY SEAN PILLOT DE CHENECEY .......................................................59A growing body of opinion from men is that the age-old binary,narrow definition of maleness is out, and that a DIY approach tomasculinity based upon respect, decency and intelligence is in. Butnot all male literature is apparently agreeing. So what are the realmale trends in 2007?CAN WOMEN PLAY THE GAME AT EXECUTIVE LEVEL?BY CHRISTINE LIND DITLEVSEN..........................................................61The ability to play will be a professional qualification In the future. Playingwill become a greater part of our working life in these times wherecreativity is in high demand. But what does it mean to play? Meet theresearcher and the future researcher in a conversation about men’sand women’s different ways to play and read about the consequencesfor the future labor market.FO/futureorientation is published by Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies (CIFS),Norre Farimagsgade 65, DK-1364 Copenhagen K.Tel. +45 3311 7176, email@example.com, www.cifs.dkEDITOR: Gitte Larsen (responsible under Danish press law), firstname.lastname@example.orgSECRETARIAT: Ellen Mauri, email@example.comENGLISH ADAPTATION: Allan Jenkins, Desirable Roasted Coffee,allanjenkins.typepad.comART DIRECTION: Stine Skøtt Olesen, NXT, www.nxtbrand.dkILLUSTRATION: Stine Skøtt Olesen, NXT, www.nxtbrand.dkILLUSTRATION DANISH CROWN: Brian Emil Johannsen, Red Alert ProductionMETROPOLIS: Fritz Lang, Erich Pommer, Otto Hunte, Erich Kettelhut, Karl VollbrechtTHANKS TO: Danish Crown, www.danishcrwon.dk, Slagteriernes Arbejdsgiverforening(SA), Nydelsesmiddelarbejder Forbundet (NNF) og Dansk Industri (DI).SUBSCRIPTION 2006: 250 EURO plus shipping (20 EURO in Europe and 30 EUROin the rest of the world). The price includes one printed copy and online access.Published six times a year.CIRCULATION: 5500ISSN: 1901.452XMember of Dansk Fagpresse (Danish Trade Press Association). The opinions expressedin articles are those of the authors, and are not necessarily those of CIFS. Textualcontents may be republished as long as the original author and publication are cited.PRINTED BY: StrandbygaardCopenhagen Institute for Futures Studies (CIFS) is an independent research organizationfounded in 1970 by professor Thorkil Kristensen, a former OECD Secretary-General. CIFS analyzes the trends that shape the future. CIFS examines the presentand the future, and publishes what it finds. CIFS is a non-profit association with160 members.
RACHEL LOUISE CARSON (1907-1964)Rachel Louise Carson was not a futurist, but author and zoologist with focus onpeople’s collective future with nature on Earth. She was a pioneer in environmentalresearch, and is considered today to be the woman that prompted global environmentalconsciousness (which can be called a megatrend). One of her first books, Silent Spring(1962), became a bestseller. In it, Carson challenged practices in natural science andin the American government, not least the use of pesticides. She was attacked by thepharmaceutical industry for her view, and some saw her as a hysterical female. Shecontinued, until she died of breast cancer in 1964, with pushing for change in the waypeople see and live with nature. Her books are today loved by all who read them – notleast for her poetic talent.QUOTE: “The more clearly we can focus our attention on the wonders and realities ofthe universe around us, the less taste we shall have for destruction.”
By Gitte LarsenWhy megatrends matterMegatrends are the great forces in societaldevelopment that will very likelyaffect the future in all areas the next10-15 years. Many companies and organizationsuse megatrends in their strategicwork. In the next few pages, you can gainan overview over the 10 most importantmegatrends as we head toward 2020.Megatrends are great forces in societal development that willaffect all areas – state, market and civil society – for manyyears to come. In megatrends such as, for example, prosperityand aging, lies a great deal of the knowledge we have aboutthe future. We know that wealth will probably continue toincrease by about 2% a year in the western world. We alsoknow that there will be more elderly people and fewer youthsin the near future.In other words, megatrends are our knowledge about theprobable future. Megatrends are the forces that define ourpresent and future worlds, and the interaction between themis as important as each individual megatrend. That is whyfutures researchers, companies and others use megatrendswhen they develop and work with scenarios. Megatrends canbe a starting point for analyzing our world.Even though megatrends say something about what weknow about the future, it is not certain how society, companiesor any of us will react to these forces. In other words, itis not enough to draw on the probable future when workingwith futures research. The future is never a given, and anyone of us can affect or create the future. Megatrends havedifferent meanings for different companies, organizationsand individuals, because we react, consciously or not, differentlyto trends such as globalization (vs. anti-globalizationmovements), individualization (vs. new communities) and theincreasing pace of change (vs. the slow movement).The three PsFutures researchers always work with three types of futures:the predictable, the possible, and the preferred. The two last– the possible and the preferred – are also worth consideringwhen we use megatrends in our strategic work with the future.Megatrends say something about the probable future, butthere are other possible futures. Every megatrend can be setaside or can suddenly and fundamentally change direction.Wildcards – events that are unlikely, but that would haveenormous consequences – can slow a megatrend’s developmentor create counter-forces. For example, the events ofSeptember 11, 2001 temporarily stopped growth and slowedsome aspects of globalization.Certainties, uncertainties and paradoxesMegatrends are the probable future – or express what weknow with great confidence about the future. Megatrendsare certainties. Nevertheless, they always contain elementsof uncertainty – through the effects on and reactions of companies,organizations and individuals, or through wildcards.Moreover, they can contain elements of paradoxes/counterforces,such as the anti-globalization movement, anti-consumermovement or the slow movement.Megatrends can be used as a methodology when you oryour company works strategically with the future. You can,for example, use them as a base in development and innovationprocesses, and use them in combination with othertrends in a more specific area. You can also use them if youcreate scenarios or need an Early Warning System.In the box, we give you three examples of ways companieshave used – or failed to use – megatrends. Anotherexample is found in the interview with Danish Crown,which recently, in cooperation with the CopenhagenInstitute for Futures Studies, has focused on the futureof meat production in Denmark. We show how they havechosen to communicate the message to workers in themeatpacking industry about two different futures/scenariosbased on a number of megatrends on page 33.GITTE LARSEN is the editor of FO/futureorientation. Gil@cifs.dk8 fo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk
”Megatrendsare the forcesthat define our presentand future worlds,and the interaction between themis as importantas each individualmegatrend.”HOW YOUR COMPANY/ORGANIZATION CAN USE MEGATRENDSMany companies and organizations use megatrends in their strategic work withthe future within all the central business areas, such as corporate strategy, marketinnovation, and business development, product development, marketing and HR.EXAMPLE #1: JYSKE BANK’S NEW BUSINESS CONCEPTJyske Bank recently fundamentally changed its business concept, so the customercan put together his own banking solution. The bank has focused onthe product experience, both “virtually” and in the branch. The bank calls theinitiative “Jyske Difference” and their slogan is “Jyske is the bank that makes adifference.” In the short process (four months) during which the new businessconcept has been developed and partially implemented, the bank has beenespecially inspired by the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies’ thoughts onCreative Man and the individualization megatrend. As they write to FO/futureorientation:“Many consumers see banks and bank products as uniform – and alittle boring. At the same time, we see that customers are changing behavior.They want more influence; they are more self-reliant while demanding personalservice. The creative consumer, who wishes to create his or her own solution,is the coming thing. Consumers want to tailor their own charter vacations, car,and bank product. With the new initiative, the bank can better meet the modernconsumer types of the present. With Jyske Difference, Jyske Bank signals thatwe are more than a bank. Jyske Bank is a bank, a store, and a modern library.Jyske Bank is the place where customers become smarter, inspired, and experiencea straightforward atmosphere.”EXAMPLE #2: BRATZ BEATS BARBIEIndividualization has – in addition to the need to be able to choose everythingindividually – meant that childhood now has more phases. Today, we have veryyoung children, the middle group, the relatively new group “tweens” and teenagers.The Barbie doll was market leader, but, because they were slow to notethe trend that children more quickly become “small adult consumers,” the Bratzdo quickly took a disproportionately large share of the market leader position.Megatrends can, in other words, be used as an Early Warning System (readmore about EWS and megatrends in the theme article on page 28). It can goterribly wrong when companies fail to pay attention to the development of megatrends.For example, traditional camera and film companies, such as Kodak,are suffering from the rapid rise of digitalization. They saw it coming, but underestimatedthe speed, with the result that they have had to make massive layoffsin the last couple of years.EXAMPLE #3: WHAT COMES AFTER COACHING?How will the market for coaching develop, and what will be the next? DIEU, oneof Denmark’s biggest and most successful providers of courses in coaching,set out to answer that question. More individualization, plus several of the othermegatrends, indicates a growing market. Globalization constantly brings newand unexpected challenges. The aging of the population means that we runinto completely new life situations several times in our life. Coaching is relativelyexpensive, but wealth lets more people afford to seek professional support bothwithin and without the professional sphere. Commercialization means that weare ready to pay for sparring on questions we would have handled privately withfriends and family in the past. The conclusion, after a dialogue between DIEUand a futures researcher from the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies, wasthat demand for individual professional support is growing, that coaching asa buzz-word will probably be replaced by a new expression, and that DIEU asmarket leader decided to create the future that comes after coaching.fo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk9
10 megatrends toward 2020The 10 megatrends that are republishedhere in a shortened, edited form, weredeveloped by Kaare Stamer Andresen,Martin Kruse, Henrik Persson, Klaus Æ.Mogensen and Troels Theill Eriksen, allfrom Copenhagen Institute for FuturesStudies. The Institute also works withother megatrends, such as climatechange, the knowledge society, andimmaterialization. In this summary article,information technology, communicationtechnology, biotechnology, nanotechnology,and energy have been groupedunder ”technological development.”#1 AgeingThe world’s population is ageing. It is happening because welive longer, and because there will be relatively more elderlythan youths the next decades. This is especially because theworld’s women have had fewer children the last 55 years. Thetrend toward falling fertility on a global basis is so clear thatit will almost certainly continue the next decades, and thatmeans the world’s population will not increase.The ageing megatrend applies to all regions of the world,and has great significance for society, economics, corporations,and individuals. Social dynamism may be reducedbecause older people are often less open to change than theyoung. Most OECD countries have the issue of an ageingpopulation at the top of their political agendas, and healthcare, pension systems and care for the elderly have been prioritizedin many countries in recent years. More elderly outsidethe labor market means reduced tax revenues and higher(public) expenses.The elderly of the future are expected to get a great dealof attention because many of them are financially well off.Today’s elderly are in better health and more affluent thanthe elderly of the past. As a result, age has taken on a differentmeaning, and many elderly have a completely differentself-image than earlier generations. The elderly in the westernworld want an active retirement with travel, experiences orother forms of self-realization.The greatest consequences of ageing will be felt on thelabor market after 2010, when the number of people of workingage will fall. The labor market will be a seller’s market,and youth will be in great demand. This may prompt bottleneckproblems, upward pressure on salaries, greater internationalcompetition and, in the end, poorer competitivenessfor OECD countries. The reaction can be more off-shoringand outsourcing and a different perception of immigration.In the immaterial and creative economy of the future, moreof the especially well-educated elderly may remain active inbusiness life longer, but that requires companies and organizationsto start considering now new forms of employment tocreate the optimal conditions for this group.#2 GlobalizationGlobalization is the fast growing global interconnectednessreflected in the expanded flows of people, capital, goods, services,information, technologies, and culture. Globalization isnot a new phenomenon, but it will mean something differentin the future.Companies and money markets are the most globalthings today, and we see a growing international divisionof labor. We increasingly experience common productionand consumption values. Globalization makes us more alikeacross the world, but it also makes us more aware of localdifferences. When we look at what is most globalized today– markets and companies – the trend is towards regionalization.However, in the near future we will far more clearlythan today see and experience what makes us alike – moreglobally oriented – and what makes us more different orlocally anchored.The global development leads to increased liberalizationand expanded trade in most countries and regions. However,it does not seem likely, that the world will be dominated bycommon political and ethical values in the near future. Aprobable future can therefore be “A World of Nations andRegions,” with global free trade but only deeper integration atregional levels. Citizens and consumers also seem to be crossculturallydifferent in their behavior and their preferencesfor products. A growing number of multinational companieshave therefore begun to adapt their products and marketingto the individual markets.#3 Technological developmentOur use of technology is what differentiates us from otheranimals. We are the only creatures who construct anddevelop tools that make life more pleasant for us. Since thestart of the industrial age, technological development hasaccelerated, so changes come faster and in more areas. Themost important technological development areas in the nextdecades are information technology, biotechnology, nanotechnologyand energy.10 fo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk
10 MEGATRENDS TOWARD 2020Information technology has created enormous changes inrecent decades: personal computers, the Internet, mobiletelephones, industrial robots, iPods, and much more. In2020, computers will be about 200 times faster than today’scomputers, and will have memories 1000 times as large.Computers and robots will take on increasingly complexassignments, and the Internet will be a breeding ground forcompletely new, virtual industries.In recent years, we have seen great progress in biotechnologywith the mapping of the human genome, cloningof mammals, and genetic modification of plants andanimals. Research in biotechnology opens the door tonew, future treatments in the form of gene therapy andtransplantation of cloned organs. Genetically modifiedplants and animals (GMO) may potentially relieve worldhunger. However, at the same time, biotechnology opensa Pandora’s box of ethical questions: Is it acceptable tomanipulate life? Is GMO just another way for the Westto exploit the Third World? Will biotechnology promptunforeseen biological catastrophes?Nanotechnology is a general term for technology withstructures on a nanometer scale (one billionth of a meter).Researchers develop nanomaterials with many fantastic characteristicssuch as extreme strength, special electric propertiesand extremely low friction. Nanoelectronics may, in a fewyears, replace microelectronics. At little further into the futureare nanomachines: microscopic robots that, for example, swimaround in our veins removing cancer and plaque.One of the great challenges of the 21st century will stillbe finding energy for both the new and the old industrialcountries. Oil will run out eventually, so we must find alternatives.There is much research in sustainable energy fromwind, the sun, and the earth’s warmth and in alternative fuelssuch as hydrogen and biofuel. The following decades will alsooffer progress in atomic energy, both the traditional fissionenergy and the controversial fusion power that creates energythe same way the sun does.#4 ProsperityProsperity is a megatrend because the majority of the populationof OECD countries and large groups in formerly developingcountries are now growing more prosperous. Between 2%and 4% growth is assumed in the western world in comingyears, and in some regions – especially North America, LatinAmerica, and Asia – the growth rate will likely reach 10%-15%. It is doubtful that Africa and the Middle East will enjoysuch growth and increase in prosperity because fertility ratesare expected to remain high in these regions, among otherfactors. Moreover, prognoses indicate the Russian middleclass will grow from 50% to 85% in the next 10 years, theChinese from 5% to 40% and the Brazilian from 25% to 50%.Gross National Product (GNP) is usually used to measureand compare the wealth of nations. The US and EU are, measuredby GNP, far richer than other parts of the world, but thatcan change in step with the high economic growth rates andincreasing employment in many developing countries.The economic growth will cause a change in the demandfor new types of products, with a new business structure as aresult. In short, most countries are going through a structuralsocial and economic change in the transition from agriculturaland/or industrial society to a knowledge society. Whenwe grow richer, new needs arise and we consume more in theform of intangible products such as entertainment, experiences,services, savings and investment. More prosperity changesour consumption of traditional tangible products such asfood, because affluent consumers focus on health, quality,trust, origin, animal welfare, etc.More prosperity and more consumption will change therelationships between costs, prices and profit. The relationshipthat formerly existed between consumer prices and productioncosts, based on resource contributions such as laborand capital, is no longer present. Much of the value of thetangible products of the future is not in production costs butin the knowledge behind the product: product development,marketing, distribution, etc. That also means that there willbe much greater pressure on companies and individuals to bechange oriented, creative and innovative.#5 IndividualizationIndividualization is the shift from more collectivist societalnorms to more individualism. In the Middle Ages, a personwas defined by his relationship to God. He was placed in aframework where God penetrated every aspect of society,thus making man’s fate preordained. The Renaissance andthe advent of modern industrialization freed man in thisrespect. Suddenly the son of a farmer did not necessarilyhave to become a farmer. Man’s fate was now more a questionof interest and skill rather then obligation and tradition.Historically, individualization is closely related to culturalnorms and change of social structure. The 20th century maybe said to be the century of individualism in Western culture.A central aim for modern man is to distinguish himselffrom his fellows, and thereby obtaining a higher position ina social hierarchy based on shared norms and values. Todaythe question must be raised in Western society whetherthese norms and values exist or if they just relate to thescarce commodity rule of socially distinctive action, thusgenerating an oppositional tendency to focus on individualizedvalue-based distinction. In any case, the individualisticapproach has made branding one of the key figures in modernsales and marketing.Individualization will be significant for the lives of theindividual – and in private relations between people. But individualizationwill in the coming years also greatly influencecompanies. First, individualization can be read in the gradualdissolution of traditional segments. Even today, the segmentmodels are in the process of having to give up because customersno longer can be divided into internally consistentfo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk11
10 MEGATRENDS TOWARD 2020groups. As customers, people are increasingly going to expectindividual and unique products. Secondly, companies aregoing to feel the increasing employee turnover more. Thelabor force of the future can handle more changes than thatof the present. Thirdly, individualization will be felt as anemployee demand for individual attention.Read more about individualization in the next issue of FO/futureorientation.#6 CommercializationCommercialization is the meeting of increasingly morehuman needs on the private market through trade that canbe both supply and demand driven. Commercialization isclosely linked to other megatrends such as globalization,prosperity, individualization and digitalization. Digitalizationhas made it much easier to reach consumers globally, andthe Internet promotes commercialization by making it bothcheaper and faster for companies to market to the global market.Globalization has great influence on commercializationbecause of increased international trade, greater investmentand more travel. Prosperity and individualization also acceleratecommercialization because consumers have more moneyand at the same time demand individually tailored productsand services.Commercialization will probably increase in the future,and the consequences will range from even more prosperityto specialization in business and the labor market.Specialization means that companies deliver more differentiatedproducts and services while employees work morewith product development, innovation, marketing and sales.This will in turn speed up the transition to the creativeknowledge economy.Commercialization gives the individual more choices,increases competitive pressure on many companies andorganizations, and thereby creates a growing market for newproducts. More competition forces businesses to further specializationand effectiveness. Some companies will concentrateon large-scale operations, centralization and standardization.Others will do the opposite, concentrating on decentralization,flexibility, niche production, immaterialization, marketing andcustomer service.#7 Health and environmentIn 1962, when the American marine biologist Rachel Carson(meet her on page 7) publishedSilent Spring, she painted a picture of mankind’s lackof feeling of responsibility for the earth. Professionals ridiculedCarson’s gloomy predictions, but when, in 1972, thesame professionals raised the alarm with the report Limitsto Growth, few shook their heads. The oil crisis had createda new awareness of the resource problem that grew in lightof the growing prosperity and a menacing population explosion.The green wave of the 1980s put focus on ecology andsustainability, and fitness centers appeared everywhere. Withthe political consumer’s boycott of Shell because of BrentSpar and French wine because of nuclear tests in the middleof the 1990s, consumer power was manifested. Since then,the triple bottom line has been a part of many companies’accounts, and the development continues with renewed focuson corporate social responsibility (CSR) and the new corporatesocial innovation (CSI) that you can read more about onpage 24.Today, fitness has become wellness, and so has gained amore spiritual and personality-optimizing character. New spabaths, treatment resorts, and other offerings are constantlyappearing on the market, and the American wellness industryexpects record-breaking sales of US$73 billion in 2006.The health and environment megatrend will have evengreater significance in the coming years. There will comemore age related illnesses, more lifestyle illnesses such asobesity and stress, and more mental illness. Men’s spermquality has fallen greatly over the last 10 years, morechildren suffer from allergy, and smoking is banned inmore and more places. There will be focus on clean drinkingwater – even in the countries that until now have nothad problems drinking water from the tap. The WorldBank calculates that the spread of avian influenza coldcost US$800 million a year and prompt a significant dropin GNP in the affected countries. The Asian DevelopmentBank calculates, moreover, that a pandemic could create aperiod with low growth in which global trade would fall by14%. The health megatrend is, therefore, of great significancefor the world economy.The individual household uses more and more moneyon environment and health, and the number of new companiesin healthcare has quadrupled in Denmark in justfive years. The modern person buys vitamins, practicesyoga and eats healthfully. In step with the individualizationtrend, more are interested in the body, beauty careand wellness, and more are aware of the connectionbetween health and environment.For companies, it will also be more important to takeinto account employee health. Many already work to improveemployee morale, loyalty and productivity through meal programs,fitness centers, etc. We will probably also see morecountertrends to this in coming years.#8 AccelerationThe industrial revolution was the starting signal for increasedacceleration, which has only grown since then. Today, forexample, there is more knowledge for the individual toconsider, more to produce and consume, more to throw out,more to communicate, more to transport, and many morepeople to interact with. The pace of change is the number ofchanges in society per unit of time, and there are no absolutenumbers for it. But that many people say there are more andmore changes is sign enough of it.12 fo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk
10 MEGATRENDS TOWARD 2020Changes touch us on many levels, and we change job, partners,friends, interests, home, knowledge, news and ideasfaster than before. Information is not just more accessibletoday – the entry of new products on the market goes fasterand faster. A single example is that it took 13 years before30 million video cassettes were on the market, but just eightyears for the same number of CDs and only five years for30 million DVDs. Modern people much make far more dailychoices than ever before, and our curiosity and our aspirationsfor development, new knowledge and improvementswill be forces that will increase the pace of change in thefuture. So will new technologies such as nanotechnologyand biotechnology.The pace of change already makes great demands on theability of companies and organizations to reorganize. Andthat is not all: if you want to protect your competitive power,it is not enough to be change ready – you must be changeorientedso that you do not make do with subsequentlyand passively adjusting to the changes that happen in yourworld. According to a study by McKinsey, it is probable thata market leader will lose its position at the top in five years,twice as fast as 20 years ago. Speed and flexibility are otherdemands on companies and organizations in an acceleratingdevelopment.#9 Network organizingTo enter a network is a natural part of being human.Central to all networks is communication, because communicationis the reason we have a society, a culture, anidentity and an economy. Network organizing is a megatrendbecause network has become a central term thatpermeates our way of thinking. Cheaper transport, betterinfrastructures, the Internet, mobile telephony and increasingprosperity have revolutionized the opportunities forcommunication and network organizing. This megatrendis, in other words, closely connected to the development inseveral other megatrends, not least digitalization, globalization,and individualization, but also prosperity, immaterialization,and commercialization.A network’s value increases exponentially with thenumber of members who are in it. Changes in a network societydo not happen linearly as they do in an industrial society.That means that many changes that took decades in the pastnow happen significantly faster. An example: just two yearsafter the World Wide Web was launched in 1992, 10 millionusers were on it, while it took the telephone four decades toattract the same number of users. Network organizing greatlyaffects technological, societal, and economic development,and we have probably seen only the beginning. The rapiddevelopment potential in the network society means, on theone hand, that companies can expand incredibly fast, as happenedwith Microsoft, but, on the other hand, companies inall industries can risk outcompeting each other in a very shorttime. This applies even to Microsoft, which, even though 90%of computers use its programs, is losing share to the freeoperating system Linux.Networks drive out hierarchies and create many newopen and decentral social structures. This applies to privatelife, especially for the younger generation, to the labor market,and business life. Medicon Valley in the Øresundregionis an example of one of Europe’s largest clusters of biotechnologycompanies. Network organizes also promotes urbanization,because urban regions with good infrastructure, gooddevelopment possibilities, and a rich research environmentattract the creative class. Network organizing challenges ourentire way of thinking and traditional institutions such as thenation-state, the church, culture and language because peopleenter other and new networks than before.Google is an example of a company where the networkprinciple has shown itself to be a good business ideology. TheGoogle search engine’s strength is, in fact, that it lists searchresults according to how centrally a web site is in the network– that is, according to how interesting users believe it is.#10 Urbanization48.3% of the world’s 6.5 billion people live in urban areas.The United Nations predicts that the share of the worldpopulation living in urban areas will rise to 53.6% in 2030,or about 3.9 billion people. While the average annual rate ofchange in urbanization towards 2030 is predicted to be only0.5% in more developed regions, it is predicted to be 2.3% inless developed regions, primarily in Asia and Africa.Large-scale migration from region to region and countrysideto urban areas continues in both Asia and the MiddleEast. Rapid urbanization poses a fundamental challenge thedevelopment of adequate infrastructure and liveable housing,and the maintenance of healthy environments. Other thanthat it also put stress on traditional ways of living, familystructure and cultural values – creating a growing potentialfor social and political unrest.Nevertheless, there are also reasons for optimism. Thehistoric association between economic development andurbanization is well established. Cities are crucial environmentsand institutional assemblages for economic growth.Current research indicates that even in less developedcountries cities experience lower rates of natural populationincrease than rural areas, average household income is higher,and educational levels are well above those in rural areas.Thus, cities can also be seen as places of opportunity in whichthe major need is effective management and provision ofservices, creation of economic opportunity, and the provisionof safe and healthy environments.fo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk13
Johan Peter Paludans commentsTrends, megatrends– and supertrend?Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies’ mantra is - ifanyone has any doubt – that the future does not exist andtherefore cannot be predicted. It could be a good argumentfor packing up, getting on with one’s life and focusing onthe present right now. As we haven’t already a long time agopacked up, it is because decisions must be made in the presentbut work in the unpredictable future. Thus: Back to the future.When the future in principal cannot be predicted, thentrends (short-term tendencies for up to the next five years) andmegatrends (tendencies which are expected to last for the next10 to 15 years) do not make much sense. It is tempting to callthem the future researcher’s learning support teachers. They areof course not just plucked out of the thin air but they can endup proving unsustainable. Demographic perspectives can be putto the test by a quick epidemic. Globalization can be broughtinto so much disrepute that it comes to a halt. Without socialism’scountervailing force, the capitalist system appears to beso brutal that the market system is seen in a bad light and commercializationstops. This can also alter the picture of welfarethat characterizes our part of the world. Interest in health andthe environment disappears because medical, environmentaland technological development ensures that everything can berepaired. So, go ahead, smoke, and pollute as much as you like.It is no skill to present possible developments that canmake megatrends irrelevant. When we use them anyway, it isbecause they appear fairly robust and because the probabi-lityof them holding true is therefore greater than not. This is, however,also because one must seize something – learning support,teachers, crutches or whatever one calls them – when onehas to say something about something one can’t say anythingabout. One of philosopher Wittgenstein’s last and most crypticstatements was “that whatever you can’t say something about,you must be quiet about,” and while that is maybe true in aphilosophical sense, in the real world it does not hold water.There is no dear mother here. Decisions have to be made. Thestrength in utilizing trends and megatrends is therefore thatthey both have a certain likelihood and that they are part ofpromoting an awareness of which assumptions about thefuture one actually bases one’s decisions on. Then one can atleast see when one has made a mistake and that is not to betaken lightly. It can mean the world to change course in time.Trends and megatrends are however to a greater or lesserextent limited in time. They are not so flimsy as fads and thelike, but over time, they nonetheless change focus. Some eventurn out to be wrong. One did not use the expression megatrendsin the 1970’s, but if one had done so one would probablyhave called the leisure society a megatrend. It turned outthat for various reasons the leisure society was cancelled dueto a lack of support. It might pop up again even though nowthere is no sign whatsoever of this.The question is, however, whether one should not addto the trend-like comparison so that there is not only a trendand a megatrend but also a supertrend. There is maybe onlythis one. On the other hand, it is probably more sustainablethan all the others put together. One could call that time orchanges, or “time equals changes.” Changes take time; withoutchanges, the concept of time becomes meaningless.The supertrend is really the mother of all megatrends.If society does not change, if things come to a halt, if events,days and years repeat the same pattern then there are notrends and definitely no megatrends. In the film “GroundhogDay,” Bill Murray is sentenced to eternal recurrence. Everyday is like the day before and that is not funny.And so what?Without changes, there is no need for future research, becausethe future will in principal be predictable. It is exactly like thepresent. Nor is there a need for past research, sorry dear history,because the past is also a known entity. “For eternal idlenessis death,” writes Kaalund in the song I love the colorful world,and that is what those who are against changes should maybemake a note of. In a general sense, and particularly for theCopenhagen Institute for Futures Studies, one must hope thattime, like change, is a supertrend that has come to stay. Thissuper trend can of course vary. Sometimes things go faster thanother times. It is thus the megatrend we call ‘acceleration’. Thereare several changes per unit of time. The direction of the supertrend is not debatable. Time has a clear development direction,and the past is behind us. When something is over, we put itbehind us. The future is in front of us and it was therefore a bitof a sensation when an Indian tribe in Latin America, in theirlanguage, clearly expressed that they were standing and lookingforward to the past and that the future came crashing in frombehind. Even though we use the expression “something tookus by surprise,” it is the same exception that confirms the ruleabout which way time goes: from the past and into the future.This does not necessarily mean progress. Being the pessimisthe was, Kai Friis Møller said many years ago that:“Development continues even though progress seems tobe stopped.” This implies however a basic assumption thatdevelopment is irreversible. The pendulum is therefore a badmetaphor for the progress of time. A spiral is maybe a bettermetaphor. Now and again, one finds oneself in situations thatresemble the past. The difference between optimists and pessimistsis however in the understanding of the spiral’s movement.JOHAN PETER PALUDAN is director at CIFS. firstname.lastname@example.org fo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk
By Gitte LarsenInterview with John NaisbittHow (and why) did you coin the term Megatrends?I was trying to distinguish between trends and really bigtrends, between trends and major shifts, so several times inthe manuscript I used my invented word “megatrends.” Myeditor picked it up, saying let’s use Megatrends as the titlebecause the book is about 10 major shifts.What was the most exciting in writing your bestseller bookMegatrends from 1982? - what drove you to do that?The most exciting was probably not so much the writing. Thebook was a speech before an agent, Ralph Sagalan, who heardme speaking came up to me and said: “I think there is a bookin that.” As the concept had been developed over severalyears, writing was just putting my ideas to paper. The mostexciting was the reaction of the people to the book.How does it feel to be right about the future you predictedmore than 20 years ago?Not bad at all. And in fact it felt quite good when theFinancial Times on the 20th anniversary of Megatrends confirmed“astoundingly precise predictions.” But -- if you haveread Mind Set! -- you know that one of the reasons I was ableto write Megatrends was that I was not afraid of being wrong.Had I worried at all about being proven wrong one day, Iwould not have dared to make some of the -- at the time --outrageous statements that made Megatrends so successful.Having to be right keeps you from questioning, correctingand changing yourself. So in any field of endeavor, and inpersonal life, don’t let having to be right run you.Which 3-5 megatrends do you consider the most importantones the next 10-15 years?I would say the twin paths of globalization and decentralization,China, and the current evolutionary era where for thenext 50 or 100 years we will be perfecting and extending thegreat revolutionary breakthroughs of the last years of the20th century: biotechnology, nanotechnology, and informationtechnology.fo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk15
JOHN NAISBITTJohn Naisbitt is perhaps the world’s leading, global futurist, after he, in 1982,coined the term “megatrends.” His book, Megatrends, was on the New YorkTimes bestseller list for more than two years. Megatrends has been published in57 countries and has sold more than eight million copies. In October 2006, hepublished a new book: Mind Set!QUOTES FROM THE INTRODUCTION TO MIND SET!”In this book [...] I focus on mindsets that are deliberately developed for a purpose.You can create mindsets that can instruct and organize you in your personallife and field of endeavor. Thus, this book provides not only the frameworkand the perspective of the first half of this century but also the fundamental attitudesthat are necessary to anticipate the future, to receive the future.””My premier mindset is ’Understand how powerful it is not to have to be right.’It is a great release in any field of business and private life, indispensable in anyendeavor where you venture out. It is the mindset that will enable you to dare tosay or try whatever you are working on, no matter how unlikely it seems at thetime. It was the liberating mindset behind the success of Megatrends and thebooks that followed. It is a mindset that supports creative imagination.”
JIM DATORJim Dator, one of the most popular and accessible futurist, has made countless futures workshops overthe years. James Allan Dator is professor of political science at the University of Hawaii and director of theHawaii Research Center for Futures Studies. Among his specializations are subjects such as political future,space, society, and media production. From 1983-1993, Jim Dator was general secretary/president of theWorld Futures Studies Federation, and is now a member of the Executive Council of the World Academy ofArt & Science. Dator’s latest book is Fairness, Globalization and Public Institutions: East Asia and Beyond(with Dick Pratt and Yongseok Seo), University of Hawaii Press, 2005.QUOTE: ”Any useful statement about the future should appear ridiculous.”
JOSEPH COATES (1929-)Joseph Coates’ nickname is “Uncle Joe,” and after decades, he is still one of thesharpest futurists in the world. He has often been overtaken by his own predictions,but is still much in demand internationally as an adviser. After more than20 years in Coates & Jarrett Inc., which he founded in 1979 and retired from in2001, Coates is still a consulting futurist. He has advised 45 of the Fortune 500companies, and has written more than 300 publications about the future.
KENNETH BOULDING (1910-1993)Kenneth Boulding was a normative economist who insisted on bringing more aspects of economicbehavior in the economic life. He wanted to integrate the social sciences in economic theories, andbelieved that ethical, religious and ecological aspects should be part of a desired economic output.Hw worked with a three-part classification of economic activity – development, threats, and grants – ofwhich he felt only the first had ever been included in economic theory. The other two aspects met greatresistance and have only in recent years been taken serious. Think, for example, of the triple bottom lineand the development within CSR (Corporate Social Responsibility). Read more about more about CSR’ssuccessor Corporate Social Innovation on page 24.QUOTE: “Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madmanor an economist.”
PETER SCHWARTZ (1945-)In addition to oil, gas, and gasoline, Shell has also “produced” Peter Scwartz, who from1982-1986 was head of the scenario unit in Royal Dutch/Shell Group. Peter Schwartz is alsofounder of the Global Business Network, and is an internationally recognized futurist and businessstrategist. He is author of a number of books on scenarios and strategic business development,and his first book, The Art of the Long View (1991), which has been translated intomany languages, is considered by many to be a fundamental classic on scenario planning.
By Søren Steen Olsen and Steen SvendsenThe next megatrend:Social growthThe new megatrend, social growth, willaffect the agenda at social and marketlevels in the next 10-15 years. For thetime being, just a few pioneering companieshave drawn the outlines of thenext phase of social responsibility andare moving from Corporate Social Responsibility(CSR) to Corporate SocialInnovation (CSI). Developments aremoving in the direction of our havingto understand and implement innovationas an increasingly social process,because a larger and larger segment ofsociety’s - and corporate innovationalactivities deal with research and developmentof human needs.What do IKEA, Arla, national pension plans, elective schools,cooperatives, meeting places, flex time, Wikipedia, blogs,mother klatches, micro-credit, open universities, eveningschool, Linux, public housing, child day care, Doctors withoutBorders, organic products, gray panther employees, recreationalallotment gardens, Muslim cemeteries and the labormovement have in common?The answer is, they all represent new means of meetingsocial needs. In other words, they are all social innovations.In a time and a future when social change constantly challengesthe traditional social framework and society’s modelsfor finding solutions, social growth and social innovations—both commercial and those of society—will become the nextMegatrend. It will be this agenda that creates the politicalarena of the future, and new market possibilities.The consequences are that the company’s CSR willbecome more innovative, and that the company’s innovationwill become more social. Both are driven by market andsocial developments, and by corporate profit goals. A numberof prominent companies, led by IBM, Novo Nordisk, Virgin,DHL, have already begun to delve into these new possibilities.They are strategically working to join their business opportunitiesto their social responsibility.Social growth as a megatrendWhen we, as human beings, develop new technologies andforms of economic organization, we are also creating newmodes of organizing society. This story has been told manytimes and from a number of different perspectives, by KarlMarx, W.W. Rostow, Jared Diamond, Alvin Toffler andFrancis Fukuyama, to name a few.There is a general and often unspoken interpretation thatsocial changes follow economic and technological changes,that they occur spontaneously when the technological andeconomic conditions are in place. But they do not. There canbe no doubt that social changes can be spurred by “the pressureof need” coming from the economic and technologicalangles. At the same time, however, there is every reason topoint out that there is no direct connection between economyand technology on the one hand, and concrete social frameworksand social patterns on the other. History has shownthat an agrarian society can be Catholic or Protestant, Islamicor Buddhist, democratic or authoritarian, and highly-developedindustrial societies can be welfare societies like thosein Nordic countries, free market societies like the Americanmodel, or an authoritarian society like the one in Singapore.On a local level, there can be great differences between socialpatterns, for instance, two neighboring communities, twoschools in the same municipality, two companies in the sameindustry, or two departments within the same company.What determines which concrete social frameworks areconstructed, are the variety of social processes and activitiesthat exist. It is the constant dialogue, discussion, rivalries andnew ways of thinking--along with the constant counter reactions--thatcontinually shape society. They shape a society’sinstitutions, the dominant understanding of the world outside,and the relations between individuals and groups. Some ofthese processes occur in the formal political arena, others takeplace in civil society—family, local environments, clubs/associations—andothers occur in the marketplace and in companies.The point is that all these social processes are just assignificant for the development of society as technology andeconomics are. They present an important source feeding thesocial growth of society, and they are driven by social innovations.Social innovations happen all the time, but at variousdegrees of intensity and at different levels. They come inwaves appearing before, during or after an economic or technologicalshift.24 fo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk
THE NEXT MEGATREND: SOCIAL GROWTH - By Søren Steen Olsen and Steen SvendsenIt was the great waves of social innovation that created the modernScandinavia. One wave was linked to cooperative housing,the system of elective education for the sake of learning, andthe transformation of agriculture. Another wave was connectedto industrialization, urbanization and the labor movement, factorsthat lead to the establishment of the welfare society. A thirdwave came in the 1960s, with the student independence movement,the (birth control) Pill and the women’s movement.Parallel to these were a number of smaller social innovations,for instance, housing reform, experimental lifestylesand new family patterns. There were parallel developments inmost other countries, and inspiration and influences arrivedfrom outside, but it was still, to the greater degree, the concretesocial innovations that have been the defining factor inthe uniqueness of Scandinavian society. There are many indicationsof our standing at the threshold of a new, broad waveof social innovation.The next waveToday, social innovation is categorized under many differentnames: political change, organizational change, changesin attitude, and market or technological development. Thelast includes, for instance, the many ICT developmentsand everything from new ways of using cellular telephonyto Internet-based communities such as ohmynews.com,Wikipedia, myspace.com and blogs, and to the open-sourceoperating system Linux. Nobody has really thought aboutdescribing them as social innovations, and the creators havenot viewed them as such.It’s high time to focus much more sharply on the conceptsocial innovation and compare social innovation with othertypes of innovation. This is because the social perspectiveshave forced their way higher up the agenda in a long series ofcontexts:- At the level of society, we now and in the future will facegreat challenges that will create a need for social innovation,both commercially and socially. This pertains to: integration,an aging population, chronic diseases, stress-relatedillness and the balance between work and the family.- In the marketplace, companies are becoming increasinglyoriented around social relations. This pertains to customers,the media, the surrounding society, and not least, employees.- Technological and economic innovation garners muchattention: it’s big business and gets strategic support.This is not the case with social innovations. They occursparsely and in a fragmented manner, so we face therisk of seeing an all-too-negative degree of social innovationin society at the expense of society, the economyand competitiveness.- Social innovation doesn’t come along on its own and itdoesn’t always arrive as quickly as other changes. It isimportant to know what promotes and what inhibitsinnovation. Increased awareness around social innovationis necessary to re-enforce it.That’s why social innovation is now coming into seriousfocus among a number of social initiative takers, politiciansand companies. We’re seeing the beginnings of awarenessabout what social innovation is and how it can be developedin practice.The Danish minister of social affairs recently launchedsocial innovation as a new focal point in social policy—afocus on development of new initiatives in cooperative activitiesbetween the public sector, volunteer social organizationsand private companies.In the UK, the Young Foundation has objectives regardingsocial innovation. The organization supports and developsprojects and initiatives that can lead to new ways offulfilling social needs. Geoff Mulgan, leader of the YoungFoundation and a former advisor to Tony Blair, cooperateswith Conservative leader David Cameron to develop ideasabout social innovation.Social innovation in companiesCompanies have always been significant players in socialgrowth and innovation, but as a rule, it has been a by-productof their efforts to create profits by developing new productsand processes, and to grow new markets.Several companies have now taken the next step andthink more strategically in terms of social innovation. Onthe one hand, their own innovation processes have becomeincreasingly socially oriented. On the other hand, it isbecause their social role—often called CSR—has increasinglybecome innovative.The influential management-thinker Peter Drucker providedan early contribution to CSI back in the 1980s. Hebelieves we have put far too much weighting on science andtechnology as the major powers of change: “Social innovations– few of them owing anything to science or technology– may have had even profounder impacts on society and economy,and indeed profound impacts on science and technologythemselves.” He names a number of non-technological innovationswith long-term effects, such as the research laboratory(which he views as being an organizational form), agricultureconsultants, mass social movements and management as atrade discipline.In the years that followed, an incredible number of peoplehave become engaged in the topic of how companies cancontrol and extend innovation. Developments moved in adirection of urging our understanding and implementationof innovation as an increasingly social process. It should benoted that we’re referring to technological and product-orientedinnovations. Why? Because a growing volume of companies’innovation activities deal in research and developmentto fill human needs. Companies increasingly deliver serviceand experiences in which customer involvement and feedbackfo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk25
”Innovationhas become social,because it is about socialprocesses about feedback,involvement andcommunication.”EXAMPLES OF CORPORATE SOCIAL INNOVATION:A NEW STRATEGIC FOCUSThe ability to create social innovations will become a vital strategic focal point inthe future. Several good examples already exist.- IBM has explicitly launched CSI as the guideline for the company’s socialresponsibility. They have stopped donating money to charity and sponsoringworthy social projects. Even the widespread American practice of allowingemployees to do community work—such as baking cookies for the localschool bazaar—is no longer considered relevant for IBM. Instead, they enterprojects where their specific skills can make a difference: IT courses for thelong-term unemployed; implementation of computers and programs for preschoolinstitutions to develop language and social-development skills; havingemployees from economy departments help NGOs establish systems. IBM’scontributions have great effect, which gives IBM new relations and input fromthe surrounding society. IBM employees experience a far more meaningfulengagement in their own social responsibility. They gain insight and extendcontact bases, which they wouldn’t otherwise attain, and which can be usedin corporate developmental activities.- The global shipping company DHL’s efforts after last year’s earthquake inPakistan provides another excellent example. Instead of contributing cash toaid organizations, they went in and took over vital logistics tasks of transportingand distributing emergency supplies. This action was much more valuablein emergency-aid activities. The company created new relations and gainedexperience in problem solving within an unfamiliar context.- The same frame of mind lies behind Bill Gates’ social commitment. Instead ofdonating part of his fortune to existing organizations, he takes an active role.He assumes a leader role in providing social welfare, development-orientedresearch, disease prevention, and does so just as professionally as Microsoftruns its business when striving for a goal. The combination of corporate skillsand social objectives provide the company with new forms of development.- A potentially more interesting development in the area can be attributed toanother Bill—former US president Bill Clinton. He has launched his own program,Clinton Global initiative, which aims at getting companies to becomeengaged in areas such as global climate change, health, fighting poverty andthe prevention of religious or ethnic conflict. The program is based upon anew model, called “commitment,” in which companies commit to original,concrete, goal-oriented initiatives. They do so by using corporate resources,often in collaboration with NGOs, the UN and authorities.- Virgin Airlines offers another example of commitment. The carrier aims toinvest in sustainable energy. The company has committed to invest all of itsprofit from air and rail travel into research and development to find renewablesources of energy during the next 10 years. This commitment is estimated tobe worth US$ 3.0 billion.26 fo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk
THE NEXT MEGATREND: SOCIAL GROWTH - By Søren Steen Olsen and Steen Svendsenare part of the product—and, even when one delivers anddevelops physical products, there is usually a high degree ofservice included.It’s no coincidence that user-driven innovation hasbecome a mantra. It’s not primarily the technological skillsand patents a company can develop that will determine acompany’s commercial success. It is how well it is able tounderstand and service users’ needs, and how well it can doit in a continual dialogue with users. Developments in technologyand science certainly provide new opportunities allthe time, and the company can add these to the process. Thereverse is that the development of need also acts as an influenceon developments in technology and science. Innovationhas become social, because it is about social processes aboutfeedback, involvement and communication.Corporate Social Innovation – CSIDevelopments in corporate social engagement only reinforcethe conclusion about social innovation’s growing strategicimportance. CSR has become an established part of manycompanies’ vocabularies, and for some—especially largerbellwether companies—social engagement is given as muchimportance as financial and environmental information inannual reports.In Denmark, the National Institute of Social Researchhas followed developments in companies’ practices in thearea of social responsibility throughout the past eight years.They conclude that it has grown, according to all indicators.That CSR has come to stay is a safe conclusion. Consumersare increasingly politically-minded and aware of social perspectives.Employees want to identify with the values oftheir company. New media have contributed to increasingtransparency. Competition is global and consumers can easilyfind alternatives. The media, politicians and authorities havebecome more demanding in relation to corporate behavior.Companies have reacted to these developments in theworld around them with the concept of CSR, which is developingin a manner similar to an earlier wave of corporateengagement, namely: environmental responsibility. First,it starts with the most aware—and in some cases the mostexposed—identifying the effects of their business activities.They introduce control routines, then monitor them andreport on them in their annual reports.There is currently a further development of CSR. Forthe time being only a few pioneering companies are sketchingthe contours of the next phase of social responsibility:Corporate Social Innovation – CSI.Novo Nordisk is absolutely a pioneer in this area. Theyhave long worked with what’s called the “Triple BottomLine,” which accounts for the company’s financial, environmentaland social results. Now they are taking the next step.As their CSR-responsible executive Lise Kingo expressesit: “In the future, corporate responsibility is likely to evolveinto a platform for spotting and exploring needs for systemsinnovation and business innovation opportunities. Arenewed understanding of how businesses and communitiesrely upon one another is gaining wider acceptance, evenamong the staunchest critics of corporations’ influence insociety.” Social innovation is on its way to becoming a coreactivity at Novo Nordisk (see examples in box).The first generation of CSR was considered risk control.The next generation of CSR views it as a diving forcein the company’s innovation, where CSR themes becomebusiness opportunities. Explicitly and practically, focus isplaced on partnerships with NGOs and socially active entities.They are drawn into the company’s developmental activities.Companies enter partnerships or dialogues with publicauthorities. Among other things, this ensures that socialinnovations will be implemented on a large scale throughthe effects of demonstration, through the public sector’s ownpractices, or through legislation or legislative amendments.In this fashion, CSR becomes and integrated part of the company’sbusiness activities and, not least, its developmentalactivities.Especially two things are worth paying attention toin the shift from CSR to CSI. The one is focus on businessopportunities instead of risks, and the other is the importanceof partnerships. Social innovation could become more of adetermining factor for long-term development of society thatboth economic and technological innovation. It contains suchgreat and important potential that neither companies norsociety can ignore it or let developments occur incidentally.Social growth, and in turn social innovation, will become oneof the strategic focal points of the future.Sources: Danish Social Minister Eva Kjer Hansen’s speech to the council forvolunteer social work (Rådet for frivilligt socialt arbejde) 27 September 2006.Lise Kingo: “Corporate responsibility as a driver of innovation in health care”Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, June 2006. Peter Drucker: “Social Innovation:Management’s New Dimension,” Long Range Planning, Vol. 20 Iss. 6, December1987. Clinton Global Initiative: http//www.clintonglobalinitiative.orgSØREN STEEN OLSEN and STEEN SVENDSEN are partners in the knowledgefirm, Public Futures, which works in the area of long-term political developmentfor ministries, municipalities, organizations, as well as Danish and internationalcompanies. www.publicfutures.dkPEACE PRIZE TO SOCIAL INNOVATIONThe Nobel Peace Prize was awarded this year to Grameen Bank and its founderMuhammed Yunus. But why? Because Grameen Bank has created a socialinnovation, a non-profit business model that gives microcredits to some of theworld’s poorest people. The bank is not a charity but has an innovative approachto its target group and innovative methods for running a bank. Therefore, themost important perspective of this is greater than Grameen Bank and microcredits:Recognition of the value of social innovation. It is both encouraging and farsighted,because in the coming years, social innovation will be just as importantas technological and economic innovation for social development, even in richcountries such as Denmark.fo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk27
By Troels Theill EriksenMore Early WarningEarly Warning Systems are alreadytoday an important competitive parameterfor companies and organizationsand the need for them will increase inthe coming years. Read about why andget examples of how Early WarningSystems are used today and how theywill be used in the future.An Early Warning System (EWS) is a fairly specific tool usedby companies, organizations and government bodies to savehuman lives, time and money, among other things. EWS canbe used for everything, right from ongoing monitoring ofaccounts to prevention of natural catastrophes and in productdevelopment. There are several Early Warnings Systems andthey are all based on intelligent analyses of mainly newlyrecorded data and knowledge.The need for EWS has grownChanges and uncertainty play a big role in daily life in a businessworld that must respond to accelerating knowledge production,declining product lifetime, increasing product supply,less loyal consumers and more competition. The amount ofrisks companies have to handle in the future is continuouslyincreasing and so too is the need for EWS.There are many examples of companies that were tooself-sufficient and that did not manage to listen and adjustto the Early Warning signals they received. For example, theDanish East Asiatic Company overlooked warning signalsabout organizational changes and changes to world trade.Rank Xerox did not, to a great enough extent, take technologicaldevelopment seriously.A need will arise for the sorting of more and more information– a need that software producers have enthusiasticallypounced on. The art is to navigate faster and in a carefullyconsidered way and to turn risks into possibilities, by forexample interpreting threats to one’s product as input to thedevelopment of new products. Carlsberg has, for example, utilizedincreasing pressure from the many new micro-breweriesand foreign specialized beers by being responsible for thedistribution of a large share of foreign beers and in additionby brewing their own micro-brew.In the future, we will also see that EWS will be increasinglyused to service us at home. This will happen in the form of forexample more intelligent white goods and food products. Therewill also be more communication between individual electronicelements. For example, when you leave work to go home youcan send a message to the heating system at home so that theheating is automatically turned. Today, it is also possible to performstress tests based on blood tests and one can easily imaginethat this will be a powerful tool in HR’s future work.Early Warning ClassicIn companies, EWS consists of Key Performance Indicators(KPI), which primarily are ongoing measurements of a company’sfinancial results, and measurements of other strategicfactors such as working environment and customer satisfaction.In practice, forecasts are made – i.e. an expanded formof budgeting – of these key indicators, which are on an ongoingbasis monitored and if there are big deviations, one canreact and adapt for the future. The interval of time in whichthe KPIs are measured can range from real time to yearly.The huge penetration of KPI systems indicates on the onehand that Early Warning is a very useful and strong tool, butalso that these types of EWS have weaknesses seen from a competitivepoint of view. EWS will in turn become quite interestingwhen they are innovative compared with competitors’systems and when they give advantages in the form of fasterand better information collection and thereby the possibility forfaster adaptability. This concerns of course the system but alsoto at least the same extent the analyses of collected data.In this context it is interesting to distinguish betweenwhether occurrences are exclusively measured, surveyed andanalyzed if they have previously had significance for thecompany, or if measurements and analyses are also done onoccurrences which have not happened before or have notbeen previously relevant for the company. It can be a vitalcompetitive parameter if a company catches and utilizesexclusive information. Systems can also be too costly in relationto their potential return.EWS’ possibilitiesThe possibilities for using EWS are as mentioned muchbroader than just Key Performance Indicators. If we stay inthe business world, trend spotting, where one monitors thedevelopment of trends in for e.g. colors, textiles and food isalso a kind of EWS. For those people who are considering acareer move, EWS might be a possibility, and reportedly sucha job consists, among other things, of going to a café to taste28 fo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk
”Whereas Megatrend analyses canprimarily be used to say something aboutthe overall developmentin the long-term, Early Warning Systemscan be used to warn aboutthe development in the short term. ”new exotic coffee types while observing young and beautifulpeople and their clothes etc.Another example of the new type of EWS is the fightagainst viruses and spam. Here well developed systemshave been built to catch new viruses via for e.g. the network,search engines and other forums, so one can as quickly aspossible develop an antivirus and have it installed at thecustomer’s workplace. All things combined, IT is a completeEldorado for the development of EWS. Only the fantasy setslimits on possibilities.EWS is used in HR, for example by hiring workplace psychologists,who are aware of significant behavioral changes inemployees in order to prevent stress, conflicts and depression.Early Warning and megatrendsGreat demands are placed on both innovative thinking and economicalbalance and the combination of EWS and the futureresearcher’s other tools are in this connection highly applicable.Megatrends are one of these tools, which can be seen as a “veryearly warning”-system. Take for e.g. the demographic developmentof years with small population growth and combine thiswith technological development, plus an increase in wealth:all this combined has put the sale of watches for children andadolescents under pressure because mobile phones have toan increasing extent replaced the need for standard watches.The watches that are sold today are mainly high-end watches,which function like jewelry. One could have predicted thisdevelopment with the right analyses.Whereas Megatrend analyses can primarily be used tosay something about the overall development in the longterm,Early Warning Systems can be used to warn about thedevelopment in the short term. The combination of for examplethese two tools can actually be ideal.MORE EXAMPLES OF THE USE OF EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS (EWS)EWS is not just a useful tool for companies but also particularly useful in relationto saving human life, ensuring safety, monitoring the development of societyand helping politicians. Below are a number of examples of ways EWS are usedtoday:- In meteorology and geography, EWS are used to predict natural disasters,pollution and global warming. Fr example, one can predict earthquake andvolcano eruptions and research is being one in spotting and eliminating hurricanes,which are driven by water and warmth before they do damage.- In the political world, Early Warning is used for, among other things, peaceand conflict analysis plus big political power analysis. Samuel P. Huntington’sbook Civilisation’s collision? can be said to have predicted and warnedagainst some of the conflicts we have seen in recent years between parts ofthe Muslim and western worlds. Furthermore, political parties use ÈWS in theform of opinion polls to monitor voters’ behavior and positions.- Early Warning Systems can also be used to predict social tensions. Forexample, it is claimed that instability in the suburbs of France during the fallof 2005 could have been predicted. It is essential for planners and politiciansto gather information that can warn of adverse developments in society. Anexample of this is polarization in grade schools, which we have seen especiallyin recent years in Malmö, and which could result in adverse social tensionover time. For more about this see the Institute’s (subscription) report #22006: Polarization trends.- At the public health level, key human figures are used to prevent obese epidemics,blood clots and lifestyle-related diseases. EWS is used in relation tohealth safety to warn against epidemics and a comprehensive warning systemand international network is used in relation to food product control.TROELS THEIL ERIKSEN is a market analyst at the Copenhagen Institute forFutures Studies. email@example.com#05 2006 www.cifs.dk29
By Piers FawkesPrivacy: Red Coat, Black CoatTechnology is going to empower us, theconsumers of the future. It can make usstrong. Once we know what companiesand brands know about us, then we cantake action about it. Read this specialfeature, including a postcard from thefuture, about the privacy-free world andwhat powerful future it might give us– if we take action.Privacy seems to have been an ongoing concern for a whilenow – but it’s only recently I have noticed people make positivethoughts about the future. For the vast majority of us,we’re a little naive about the vast amount of information thathas been gathered about us – and it’s only when there’s a slip– like AOL’s release of the search records of 650,000 users– that we are reminded about privacy.For a brief moment, AOL allowed access to the data logsof the search behavior of over half a million users. There wasuproar in the online community. Why was the AOL releasesuch a big deal? I’m no expert or computer programmer butif I had your search records, I could probably work out whatyou did for a living, where you shopped, what brands youliked, where you lived and worked and what the names ofyour children were.So, will we have a Big Brother-like future? Well, I’mnot too sure – and I’ve tried to suggest the reasons why in a‘Postcard from the Future’ called Red Coat, Black Coat. Readthe postcard in box on the next page before you continue.THOUGHT-IN-MOTIONThis article is a write up of the US trendspotter Piers Fawkes’ notes that heprepared for an appearance on the BBC World Service show Culture Shock thestate of privacy on Monday October 9 2006. The article includes his first versionof Red Coat, Black Coat (see the second box) – a story he hopes to developwith help from feedback here and elsewhere to describe the options we haveregarding a privacy-free future. Some of the article is also based on PSFK.comreader comments. So when you read this article, please remember, it is thoughtin-motionand not a final analysis. Piers Fawkes would love suggestions of otherexamples he can add to Jill and Steve’s story send to firstname.lastname@example.orgThe positive picturePrivacy is dead. It’s over. Why am I painting an apparentinvasion of privacy as useful?We can’t wear black coats anymore. Steve is looking forhis 15 minutes of oblivion and it’s futile – whether he likesit or not. He needs to take action – he needs to understandwhat’s known about him and take action. He needs to presenthimself in a new coat, a coat that says something about him.It doesn’t have to be red – it could be navy and say ‘don’tapproach me’ – but he needs to take that action – and in theend, I don’t think he wants to be alone.Monitoring and poor data management happens todayalready on every level. If you go into a nightclub today inAmerican cities, they scan your driving license. Your drivinglicense is one of the most important pieces of ID – and to getin and have a drink and dance – you have to pass it over toget all the information recorded. What happens to all thatdata? Where does it go?Many of the things I’ve mentioned in Red Coat, BlackCoat exist today and we’re already shaping what is knownabout us. Like Jill’s music player, we can tell the online jukeboxesLast.FM and Pandora what songs they play to us welike, which ones we hate and they alter the selection for us.RFID tags in store or café loyalty cards can let managers andcoffee makers know when you’re passing through the door.By looking at my shopping habits against my credit card bill,they already know my preferences – cappuccino or red hats- and because I know that, I can change it. Or even delete that.The idea of Steve’s bus changing route is not impossibleto think of either. Today, in Internet cafes, the price changesdepending on the amount of people using the service. Why can’tbuses change direction depending on the real-time demand?Let’s also consider how Jill met all these new people inthe café. This comes from personal experience. Online, I’m apretty well known person. Although I started blogging with afalse name I realized that people didn’t really know me – andcouldn’t relate to the real me – so I put on my red coat andrevealed more information about me. Just enough to helppeople make opinions about who I am. By doing this, I canplace a notice for a coffee morning called Likemind on myblog and 30 people turn up who don’t even know me. Theinteresting thing is that the people who turn up aren’t exactlyrandom. The group is self-selecting. Not anyone is going tocome to a random coffee morning – it’s more likely that peoplewho have got to know me – or Noah who also runs thecoffee morning – from our blogs. We therefore all tend to belikeminded. Hence the name.30 fo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk
POSTCARD FROM THE FUTURE: RED COAT, BLACK COATIt’s about that time again and Steve grabs his black Macintosh to go and meethis one and only real friend Jill. As he wraps it round him, he looks at thecorners of his room, he looks out of his window then slips out of his front doorwithout making a sound.Wrapped in his black coat, to anyone who spots him, Steve looksparanoid – trying to hide. In fact, Steve doesn’t just look paranoid. He is paranoid.Paranoid every time he swipes his card to get into work, every time hehas to carry a mobile phone, every time he chats on the web, every time heremoves the last can of soda from his fridge. He’s being watched. He knowsit. Unknown organizations are watching his movements, brands are watchinghis consumption, details of every action Steve takes is being crunched byspeedy computers that predict. Computers that predict Steve’s shopping habits,health habits, voting habits, sexual habits. Steve tries to shield himself fromwhat he calls an invasion of privacy. He uses software to mask his identity, hegives false names, and he uses alternative underground brands.Jill leaves her house in her red coat and as she strolls down the streeteveryone seems to know her even if they haven’t met her before.Unlike paranoid Steve, Jill is considered as the socially evolved. It’s notonly her red coat that presents an image to the world of how she wants to beseen. Jill understands and manipulates how the world sees her, how companiessee her, how her friends see her. Using technology that was developedmaybe twenty years ago, Jill knows nearly everything everybody else knowsabout her. And in the same way she uses his bright red coat to make a statementabout herself, she manages the data about herself to present the imageshe wants.Information is like fashion – to be use, shown off and even bartered with.Her friend Steve hates people even knowing about his name – but what doesa name really say about Jill. Or the school she went to, the color of her skin orher date of birth. Jill is Jill. Or the Jill she wants you and the companies whowant to sell to her think she is.Of course, people know about Jill through her blog where she talksabout all the things she wants to talk about. And, as she’s chatted to otherbloggers, she’s found other likeminded souls. And that’s how she’s found newfriends she’s never met before – even been contacted by a company that mayhave a job for someone just like her.At the bus station, Steve pays cash for his ticket in the machine. Hedoesn’t see the idling bus change its number and chug forward to the stopto take him on his way. Meanwhile, at the subway Jill dabs her thumb onthe scanner and uses his frequent user reward to travel for free. On the bus,Steve pulls the collars of his coat around his ears to try to stop the blarefrom the ads. Papered on the back of seats, the moving graphics try to sellhim shampoo, cheap holidays and a magazine for retirees. Jill’s subway rideis silent. It’s peaceful – with the ad panels temporarily turned down to let herenjoy the great tunes her music player has selected from a global jukebox.All this peace kindly brought to her by Target stores.At the café, Jill’s drink, the coffee makers start her mocha just as sheenters the store. Just in time - Jill’s heavy with shopping bags as she justsaw the greatest clothes to match her Red Coat in the window of her favouritefashion store down the way. And they fit perfectly.By the time Steve makes it to the café, he’s a mess – harassed by theworld around him. The staff behind the counter guess the fake name he wasgoing to give but they wrongly guess the drink he was going to have. He’llhave to wait until they make the drink again.“Don’t worry. Come over and meet my new friends,” she says as she wavesto a table of people.“How do you get to meet new people like you?” Steve says.“I haven’t yet. I met them though the blog.”“But they look like they know you well…”“It’s the coat,” Jill replies pointing out their red coats too.fo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk31
”Think ofhow many red hatcompanies find it hardto find peoplewith red coats.”Technology will empower usBut what about all this information I give out about myself? Jillwith her red coat knows that we have already lost privacy. Welost privacy when we adopted the web en-masse and when westarted walking around with telephones. Many people feel thattechnology is going to create Orwellian scenarios – but it won’t.To be honest, I feel companies are doing a poor job with theinformation they have. If a reader looks at a person the sameage in the office they work in – I bet they think that person ispretty different to them – but many companies today see themas the same type of person with the same interests.Technology is going to empower us. It can make usstrong. Once we know what companies and brands knowabout us – then we can take action about it.How do we know about what people know about us?Well, there are laws like the Data Protection Act in the UK,which grants access to data companies own. But this is a verystatic thing. There’s a group called the Attention Trust in theUS who is campaigning to make us more aware of the papertrail we are leaving. They link to a site called Root.net – andwhen you switch Root.net on, it tells you about all the informationyou are leaving and what companies think about you.Once you have knowledge like this, you have power.Power to do what? Like Jill and her red coat, you havethe power to look a certain way and people and companieswill react to you in a certain way. You can correct their opinionand you can ask them to stop behaving in a certain way.You can even make money from your data. There’s a sitecalled rootexchange.com that already allows people to selltheir information to companies.I don’t think the implications of our power over ourpersonal data have been fully thought through yet. But thinkof how many red hat companies find it hard to find peoplewith red coats. In a common forum, they can ask for red coatpeople to come forward and say they will give $10 if Jill givesthem the time of day to listen to a pitch to sell her a hat thatmatches her coat. Then that changes everything.PIERS FAWKES is the publisher of five web sites (PSFK, IF!, Marktd, ECO)aimed at introducing ideas and insights to an international audience. By managingthe PSFK network of contributors, Piers and PSFK have provided a numberof services to clients like MTV (content), Corona Beer (city trends tours),Philips Electronics (market research), Samsung (trends & inspiration), Smirnoff(comms concepting), Microsoft (inspiration), and CocaCola (trends sessions).www.psfk.com32 fo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk
By Gitte LarsenA look into the future ofDanish meat processingHow do you communicate, to all theemployees of the meat processingindustry, two of several possible scenariosfor future production conditions?And why are employers and the labororganization doing it together?Danish Crown is Europe’s largest pork processor and the nextlargest in the world. It’s an international food company thatproduces and sells fresh pork and beef along with value-addedmeat products. Danish Crown’s (cooperative) shareholdersaccount for approximately 90 percent of all abattoir operationsin Denmark and are the biggest employer in the industry. Oneof the major challenges for the future, like other industries, isglobalization. For that reason, the meat industry employers’organization SA took the initiative around nine months ago tooutline the consequences of globalization for Danish workersin the industry. It was necessary to do this in cooperation withthe food industry workers’ union NNF to be able to draw a pictureof the future as realistic as possible.Debate in the lunchroomPreben Sunke is CFO at Danish Crown and the driving forcebehind the group working on the project, Future productionconditions for the meat processing industry- (see box). He saysthat it is vital to include employers and employees to ensurethe results are as realistic as possible. He hopes the publicationwill be received in the same spirit as that which went into themaking of it; that is, business-like and humorous input abouthow the future will develop. “I hope it will be used as input fordiscussions in the lunchrooms at job sites, and that it will provideinsight into the effects of globalization, along with ideasabout development possibilities,” says Sunke.The brochure is an illustrative, lively capsule of a 100-pluspagereport containing all the collective thinking SA and NNFhave done on the subject of the consequences of globalization onmeat industry workers’ everyday lives in Denmark. Sunke saysthat they chose to include the Copenhagen Institute for FuturesStudies (CIFS) in the process, because they needed a voice thatcould lead them off the path of traditional thinking. “We neededinspiration and new input, so who can look into the future betterthan CIFS?” he says, adding, “There, you got a little plug.”ÅRET ER 2016…ILLUSTRATION: BRIAN EMIL JOHANNSEN, RED ALERT PRODUCTIONSA and NNF have published a brochure presenting two scenarios for the futureof Danish meat processing industry workers. The publication is based on reportsfrom a major, mutual project. In the second half of November, 15,000 copies ofthe brochure will be distributed to employees in the meat processing industry.Exerts from the brochure appear on the following pages.FUTURE PRODUCTION CONDITIONS FOR THE MEAT PROCESSINGINDUSTRYIn a collaborative effort with a working group from the meat industry employers’organization, SA, and the food industry workers’ union, NNF, the CopenhagenInstitute for Futures Studies participated in the project, Future production conditionsfor the meat processing industry. The results provide participants from SAand NNF a common frame of reference and sketches of possible futures for theDanish meat processing industry. The five-month-long project placed emphasison documenting a number of the most important data and megatrends thatwould influence an expanded cooperation between SA and NNF. Four futurescenarios were developed. The project included several all-day meetings withSA and NNF managers, as well as a major background report that went out tomanagers and shop stewards at Danish Crown and Tican, the two largest companiesin SA.fo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk33
DET ER OGSÅDIN FREMTID1. Danmark er et lille land, der producerer en enorm mængde svinekød – alt formeget til at kunne afsætte det på hjemmemarkedet. Fordi vi ikke i tide har udvikletproduktet, konkurrerer vi udelukkende på pris. Produktudviklingen er gået i stå, såder er ikke ret meget forædling – det er for dyrt at forædle, hvis ikke vi kan levereprodukter, der kan konkurrere på kvalitet og nytænkning. Derfor er der genereltfærre arbejdspladser i sektoren i Danmark – det meste foregår udenlands – og demedarbejdere, der er tilbage i sektoren, har ikke samme værdi – og dermed hellerikke længere en god løn.DET SER SKIDT UD FOR DENDANSKE SLAGTERIBRANCHEÅret er 2016. IVAN har været ansat på et stort dansk slagteri i 26 år. Han kan stadighuske, da det var sjovt at gå på arbejde. Sådan er det ikke længere. Mange af degamle kolleger er væk, og næsten hver dag er der nye medarbejdere ved slagtelinien– og han ved, de bliver der ikke ret længe. IVAN har igennem de seneste ti år måttetse lønningsposen blive stadig mindre fuld, fordi han er presset af den billigerearbejdskraft fra landene omkring Danmark. I 2016 er hans løn blandt de laveste iindustrien. Sådan var det ikke i 2006... Der var hans løn blandt de højeste i industrien.Rigtig mange af IVANs kolleger kommer fra andre lande.Det er ret almindeligt kendt, at man kun kan spå om fremtiden. Alligevel vil de flesteaf os gerne vide, hvordan den ser ud, så vi kan forberede os – og så vi måske enddakan gribe ind i tide og være med til at sikre, at fremtiden bliver, som vi godt kunnetænke os, den skulle være.Ønskerne for fremtiden kan være forskellige – det kommer an på, hvem der ønsker..om det for eksempel er ledelsen for en virksomhed eller medarbejderne på virksomheden.Men sikkert er det, at det er den samme fremtid, vi kommer til at leve i.Noget af den virkelighed, vi kender i dag, flytter med ind i fremtiden, andet bliverliggende – enten fordi det ikke var bæredygtigt – eller fordi det ikke kunne følge medtiden i et tilstrækkeligt højt tempo. Men undervejs til den fremtid, der ligger lige omhjørnet, kan vi gøre en indsats for at sikre, at vi får de rigtige ting med videre. Som foreksempel slagteri- og forædlingsindustrien i Danmark.2. Danmark er et lille land, hvor det er dyrt at leve – både for medarbejdere og virksomheder.Alligevel klarer slagteri- og forædlingsindustrien sig godt på verdensplani 2016, fordi vi i tide har udviklet et stærkt talent for nytænkning – både når dethandler om produkter, og når det handler om fleksibilitet på arbejdsmarkedet. Detbetyder, at det er lykkedes at bevare en meget stor del af de danske arbejdspladser,og at medarbejderne i industrien har mulighed for at udvikle sig i takt med nye krav.Vi kan konkurrere med de lande, der producerer til lavere omkostninger, fordi vi er istand til at levere et efterspurgt produkt, som andre ikke kan matche.I dag omfatter det 21.500 direkte arbejdspladser – og hertil kommer de mangearbejdspladser i følgeindustrien. I alt er 175.000 mennesker beskæftiget på området.Og spørgsmålet er, hvordan vi sikrer de mange arbejdspladser en fremtid på denrigtige måde.Derfor satte medarbejdernes repræsentanter NNF og arbejdsgivernes repræsentanter(Slagteriernes Arbejdsgiverforening) sig sammen med Instituttet for Fremtidsforskningfor at se, om de i fællesskab kunne pejle sig ind på slagteri- og forædlingsindustrieni Danmark i år 2016.Vi har skruet tiden frem til2016 for at fortælle historienom hverdagen – som denkunne komme til at se ud forIVAN og BENT.Det er der kommet en stor rapport ud af, og i den peger Instituttet for Fremtidsforskningpå en række muligheder – nogle mere tillokkende end andre.Der er mange hensyn og mange nuancer i spil, men der er to hovedlinier, som giveret fingerpeg om, hvor industrien kan være om ti år.34IVANBENTILLUSTRATION: BRIAN EMIL JOHANNSEN, RED ALERT PRODUCTIONILLUSTRATION: BRIAN EMIL JOHANNSEN, RED ALERT PRODUCTIONTHE FUTURE IS ALSO YOURSThat you can only speculate about the future is common knowledge. Still, mostof us would like to know how it will look so we can prepare ourselves, andmaybe even so we can step in beforehand to try to ensure that the future will beas we would like it to be. Wishes for the future can vary; it depends upon whois doing the wishing—for instance, whether it’s the management of a companyor its employees. One thing is sure: both sides will be living in the same future.Some of the reality we know today will move into the future with us, while partsof it will remain in the past, either because they are not sustainable or becausethey were unable to keep up with the times.Along the way to the future that lies just around the corner, we canmake an effort to ensure we move the right things forward—such as the meatprocessing industry in Denmark. Today it accounts for 21,500 jobs directly withinthe industry, along with many more jobs in related industries. All in all, some175,000 people are employed in the area. The question is: How can we ensurethat all these jobs will have the right kind of future?To provide answers, representatives from the meat industry employers’organization, SA, and the food industry workers’ union, NNF, put their headstogether with the Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies to see if they coulddraw up a sketch of the Danish meat processing industry in the year 2016. Theefforts spawned a major report and in it the Copenhagen Institute for FutureStudies points toward a number of possibilities, some more attractive than others.Loads of factors and aspects had to be taken into consideration, but twomain lines point in the direction of where the industry will be in 10 years.1. BLEAK OUTLOOK FOR THE DANISH MEAT INDUSTRYThe year is 2016. Ivan has been employed at a large Danish abattoir for 26 years.He still remembers when going to work was fun. It’s not anymore. Many of his oldcolleagues are gone, and almost every day a new face appears on the butcheringline. And he knows they won’t be there for very long. For the past 10 years, Ivanhas watched his paycheck shrink, because he has been squeezed by the cheaplabor flowing in from countries neighboring Denmark. His wage, in 2016, is amongthe lowest in the industry. It wasn’t like that in 2006, when he was among thehighest paid in the industry. An overwhelming number of Ivan’s colleagues comefrom other countries.DEN DANSKE SLAGTERI- OGFORÆDLINGSINDUSTRI STÅRSTÆRKTÅret er 2016. BENT har arbejdet på slagteriet i 15 år. Det var egentlig slet ikkemeningen, at han ville blive hængende så længe i jobbet, men der viste sig at væreen del muligheder for at lære nye ting undervejs, og det meste af tiden er han faktiskglad for arbejdet. BENT kan stadig huske diskussionen om slagteriernes fremtid deførste år, efter han var begyndt, og dengang fløj ordene ”konkurrencedygtighed” og”globalisering” om ørene på ham og kollegerne, men det sagde ham ikke så meget. Idag er det ikke noget, de snakker så meget om, men det er vist mest, fordi det bare erblevet en del af hverdagen, for BENT ved godt, at hans arbejdsplads ikke ville eksistere,hvis ikke hans arbejde kunne konkurrere med andre lande. Han ved også godt,at det er derfor, hans arbejde stadig er meget værd.1. Denmark is a small country that produces an enormous volume of pork, fartoo much to be consumed by the domestic market. As we did not developthe product early enough, we can only compete with price. Product developmenthas stalled, so there aren’t very many value-added-product operations.Adding value is too costly if we are unable to deliver products that cancompete on the merits of quality and innovation. As a result, there are fewerjobs within the sector in Denmark—most operations occur abroad—and theremaining employees in the sector do not have the same value, thus, they nolonger earn a fair wage.2. Denmark is a small country with a high cost of living, for employees andcompanies alike. Still, abattoirs and value-added processing plants are thrivingon a global level in 2016. That’s because we managed to develop, in atimely manner, excellent skills for innovation, both in terms of products and aspertains to flexibility in the labor market. This means that we have managedto preserve a significantly large number of Danish jobs, and that employeesin the industry have an opportunity to develop themselves to keep pace withnew demands. We are able to compete with countries that produce at lowercost, because we are able to deliver a product that is in demand, one theothers cannot match. We’ve turned the clock ahead, to the year 2016, to tellabout how a routine day will look for Bent and Ivan.12ILLUSTRATION: BRIAN EMIL JOHANNSEN, RED ALERT PRODUCTION2. BRIGHT OUTLOOK FOR THE DANISH MEAT INDUSTRYThe year is 2016. Bent has worked at the abattoir for 15 years. He hadn’tplanned to make a career out of it, but it has provided him with many opportunitiesfor learning new skills along the way. And for the most part, he’s pleasedwith his job. Bent can still remember all the discussions – back when he startedworking—about the future of the meat industry. In those days, he and his colleagueswere bombarded with buzzwords like “competitive” and “globalization,”but it didn’t mean much to Bent. Nowadays they don’t talk about it much, butthat’s mainly because it has become a part of the daily routine. Bent knows thathis employer would not exist if the work he does could not compete with foreigncounterparts. He also fully understands that it is one of the reasons his work isvalued. Things look bright for the Danish meat industry.We have set our clocks forward to 2016 to tell the story of everyday life – as itcould come to pass for Ivan and Bent.34 fo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk
IVAN er heller ikke ret glad for at fortælle, hvad han laver, for de fleste mennesker iDanmark ser slagteribranchen som en industri, der hører fortiden til. Han har forsøgtat skifte branche, men en slagterimedarbejder har ikke høj status på arbejdsmarkedet.IVAN satser ikke på at blive ved med at være slagterimedarbejder…På IVANs slagteri laver man i dag kun den allerbilligste vare, fordet er det, man konkurrerer på. Det betyder, at det er svært at fåret meget for varerne, så lønnen er ikke længere noget at skrivehjem om. Det er mange år siden, IVAN har betalt topskat... Det erogså længe siden, IVAN sidst har fået mulighed for at lære nogetnyt, for det er der ikke råd til i slagteribranchen 2016.7ILLUSTRATION: BRIAN EMIL JOHANNSEN, RED ALERT PRODUCTIONILLUSTRATION: BRIAN EMIL JOHANNSEN, RED ALERT PRODUCTIONAt Ivan’s factory, they now produce only the very cheapest of goods, becausethat’s how they are able to compete. This means it is difficult for the goods tofetch a good price, and that means wages aren’t anything to write home about.Many years have passed since Ivan was in the upper tax bracket. It’s also been along time since Ivan has had the chance to learn anything new, because the meatindustry of 2016 cannot afford it.And Ivan isn’t very comfortable telling people what he does for a living, becausemost people in Denmark view the meat industry as a thing of the past. He’s tried toget other kinds of work, but a meat worker doesn’t get a high priority on the labormarket. Ivan doesn’t intend to spend the rest of his live in the meat business.BENT har været en del på kursus i de sidste ti år – bådefor at lære nyt håndværk og for at sætte sig ind i, hvaddet vil sige, når en virksomhed konkurrerer på detglobale marked, og i dag er han glad for, at han i tide varmed til at tage ansvar for at bevare de mange danskearbejdspladser i hans branche.Det krævede, at virksomheden var hurtig til at forandre sig og udvikle produkter, somkunne konkurrere på andet end pris, fordi de høje leveomkostninger i Danmark ogsåbetyder, at medarbejdere i danske virksomheder tjener mere, end medarbejderne ide fleste virksomheder i udlandet. Men han ved godt, at det faktisk også krævede enforståelse blandt medarbejderne. For ti år siden havde alle medarbejderne i branchenden samme løn, men i dag afspejler lønnen i højere grad den enkelte medarbejderskompetencer og anciennitet, og ligner situationen på resten af arbejdsmarkedet.BENT satser på, han også arbejder på slagteriet i 2026…1417ILLUSTRATION: BRIAN EMIL JOHANNSEN, RED ALERT PRODUCTIONILLUSTRATION: BRIAN EMIL JOHANNSEN, RED ALERT PRODUCTIONBent has attended a number of training courses over the past 10 years. Somehelped him improve his craft, and others aided him in understanding what competingon a global market means. Today, he is thankful that at an early stage hetook the responsibility to help ensure the future of Danish jobs in the industry.It demanded that the company was quick to adapt and develop products thatwere able to compete with means other than pricing. Due to the high cost ofliving in Denmark, employees of Danish companies earn more than workers inmost foreign companies. But he also knows that this demanded a lot of understandingamong his co-workers. Ten years ago, all employees in the industryearned the same wage, but nowadays wages mainly reflect the individualemployee’s skills and seniority. The situation is generally similar to the labor marketas a whole. Bent plans to be working at the abattoir in 2026.fo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk35
FIRTZ LANG (1890-1976)Austrian Fritz Lang is from a time when futures research had hair on its chest. It wasa time when some – and especially Friedrich Anton Christian “Fritz” Lang – showedan almost frightening courage to work with the most unsettling futures. He createdthe world’s first science fiction film, Metropolis, in the middle of the 1920s, while mostwere plowing fields with horses. See some of the stills from the film, and read moreabout it on the next pages.
Metropolis1927DIRECTOR: Fritz LangSCREENPLAY: Thea von Harbou (novel)and Fritz Lang (script)PRODUCER: Erich PommerART DIRECTION: Otto Hunte, ErichKettelhut, Karl VollbrechtCOSTUME DESIGN: Aenne WillkommACTORS: Alfred Abel (Johhan ‘Joh’Fredersen) Gustav Fröhlich (FrederFredersen) Brigitte Helm (Maria/TheMachine Man/Death/The Seven DeadlySins) Rudolf Klein-Rogge (C.A. Rotwang,der Erfinde)r Fritz Rasp (Der Schmale/Slim) Theodor Loos (Josaphat) ErwinBiswanger (Georg - No. 11811) HeinrichGeorge (Grot)The world’s first science fiction film, Metropolis, is based on a novel of the same nameby Thea von Harbou, the wife of director Fritz Lang. Filming took place from May 22,1925 to October 30, 1026, and premiered January 10, 1927 in Ufa-Palast at Zoo inBerlin. Only few weeks after the premiere, the film was taken down. The original version,153 minutes long, has never been found, but most of it can be seen today. For manyyears, viewers had to make do with the edited American version, which was far from fairto the original.In the film, Lang shows the metropolis he imagines in 2026, which is the consequenceof more than 100 years of industrialization and conflict between capitalismand communism. There are two worlds in the film: the overworld with the ruler JohFredersen and his technocrats, and an underworld of anonymous workers. In the“Eternal Gardens,” the members of the ruling class enjoy themselves day and night. Thefilm shows not just a class society, but also the emotional confusion that lies behind thecreation of androids – represented in the film by the female robot, the false Maria.In 1927, Metropolis was the most expensive silent movie to date, which is not surprisingwhen one sees the sets that had to be created, and the “special effects” that hadto be produced in a time without computers and other modern technology. With that,Metropolis is one of the most ambitious science fiction films ever made. As the architectbehind the models and constructions in the film, Otto Hunte, wrote in 1927, the styleof the futuristic city Metropolis required solutions he could only find in his imagination,a view echoed by the woman who created the costumes. The effect that caused Huntethe most trouble was the “Tower of Babel” which had to appear to be 500 meters tall.The airplanes, trains, cars and people in this clip, which is six seconds long and showntwice in the film, were placed with the help of “special effects.”
ALVIN TOFFLER (1928-)Alvin Toffler is one of the absolute elite in the field of futures research. Hismore journalistic and sociological view of the future has in its methodologyand form created a school for many futures researchers after him,including the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies. Alvin Toffler is aneminent storyteller and writer. In April 2006, he and his wife, Heidi Toffler,published the book Revolutionary Wealth, which is about the prosperityof the future will be created, who will share it, and why. The best knownof his books is Future Shock, published in 1970 and still a good read. Init, he foresaw that changes would happen so fast that we would becomesick from it – future shock.QUOTE: ”If you don’t develop a strategy of your own, you become a partof someone else’s strategy.”
ALAN KAY (1940-)Maybe Allan Kay did not know he was a futurist, but he is nonetheless one of the chief architectsbehind today’s computers. From 1957 to 1967, he was a professional jazz musician, butrealized he had a flair for computer programming while serving in the US Air Force. In 1970,Kay became a consultant at Xerox PARC, which later refused to produce a prototype of a laptop.Steve Jobs, founder of Apple, met Kay in 1979 and had no doubt that Kay’s idea aboutthe computer as a living organism, as a super-medium, was the road to the future. Alan Kay isthe inventor of the Smalltalk programming language, the architect behind the modern “windowingGUI” and the direct inspiration for both the Apple Macintosh and Microsoft Windows. Sincethen, he has worked for Apple, Walt Disney Engineering, Hewlett-Packard, and is today directorof Viewpoints Research Institute.QUOTE: ”The best way to predict the future is to invent it.”
RICHARD A. SLAUGHTERThe Australian futurist Richard A. Slaughter is an academic who,after 12 years at universities in the UK and Australia, becamedirector of the Foresight Institute in Melbourne. Slaughter is aconsulting futures researcher, and has worked with many differentorganizations around the world. He works systematically with thedevelopment of futures research methods and is especially interestedin the use of futures research methods in education, business,and government. In recent years, he has been fully occupiedwith a new concept he calls “Integral Futures.” Described briefly,the concept is about how futures research integrates other andnew powerful perspectives in work with the future. Slaughter ismember of the board of the World Futures Studies Federation, ofwhich he was president from 2001 to 2005, and is a professionalmember of the World Future Society.QUOTE: ”Capitalism is perfectly unsustainable and everyoneknows it at some level, but that knowledge is repressed and thereare massive interests keeping this system going, despite the cost.”
HERMAN KAHN (1922-1983)Herman Kahn developed the scenario method, and if youcan remember only one futures researcher, it should beKahn. He was a military strategist and systems theoreticianemployed at the RAND Corporation in the USA.RAND is a non-profit institution that has for almost 60years proved objective analysis and effective solutions topublic and private decision-makers within such areas asnational security, poverty, crime, education and environment.During the Cold War, Kahn developed strategiesto contemplate the “unthinkable” – atomic war. He wasan optimist about the future and our ability to predict it,and in 1961, he founded the Hudson Institute, a policyresearchorganization that challenged the more pessimisticand leftist-oriented Club of Rome. Over the years,Kahn became even more conservative, and he was convincedthat capitalism and technology had limitless potentialfor growth. His most famous books are Thinking aboutthe Unthinkable (1962) and The Next 200 Years (1972),which describe an optimistic scenario for economic conditionsin the year 2176.
ELEONORA BARBIERI MASINIEleonora Barberieri Masini was born in Guatemala, but has lived in Italysince the age of five. She is a professor of human ecology and of futuresstudies – the first woman of the type – and has taught futures studiesat Gregorian University in Rome since 1976. For five years, she wasgeneral secretary of the World Futures Studies Federation, and was itspresident for ten. In addition, she is on the board of the World FutureSociety. Her greatest interests are futures research, methodologies, valueschange, and the role of women in the future.QUOTE: “Thinking, hoping or fearing the future is part of the life of thehuman being.”
HUGUES DE JOUVENELHugues de Jouvenel was genetically blessed as the son of futurist Bertrand deJouvenel, who helped developed the European branch of futures research, and whoamong others founded the “Association de Futuribles.” The successor to this organization,“Futuribles International,” has been led by Hugues de Jouvenel since 1974. He isalso editor of the periodical “Futuribles.” Futuribles International andHugues de Jouvenel want, as does the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies, toplace themselves in the space between universities and consultants, and puts greatemphasis on the future as a space of possibility. He is strategic adviser to companies,and is an international expert in forecasting and strategy. Along with Michel Codet, he isprobably the best-known French-speaking futurist.
BUCKMINSTER FULLER (1895-1983)Buckminster Fuller was one of the world’s first futurists and global thinkers.His friends called him “Bucky.” While he had neither money noracademic degrees, he invented such terms as “Spaceship Earth” and“synergy,” which he thought was a basic principle in all interactive systems.Throughout his life, he was most interested in whether humanity had achance to successfully survive on earth. He wrote 28 books and mademany inventions in design and architecture, but most of his inventions havenever been put in production. Fuller was an incarnate skeptic of convention,and has a great deal of the honor that many more began to think “outof the box.” Many criticized him strongly, while others still believe his workhas not gotten the attention it deserves.
By Troels Theill Eriksen, Martin Kruse and Gitte LarsenThe Scandinavian WayThe Scandinavian countries’ labor andeducation policies, management style, andability to innovate have in recent yearsbeen popular around the world. Foreignpoliticians and many others have beensent here to learn how we do it. Readabout what Scandinavian management iscapable of, and about the challenges themanagement style faces if the Scandinaviancountries are to remain in the lead.When Europe needs vision, it looks increasingly often tothe Nordic area. The countries to the north have managedto create a welfare system with free education, public supportplans, and a well-developed public health service. TheNordic countries top the international rankings of the mostcompetitive regions in the world despite their having someof the highest taxes in the world, and despite their workersworking fewer hours than those of almost any other country.Measured in GNP per capita, the Nordic region, if definedas one country, is among the richest in the world, surpassedonly be Luxembourg, Switzerland and Ireland. Moreover, thefive Nordic nationalities are some of the world’s happiest.How is it possible?The special and so-called Scandinavian model is a bigpart of the answer to the question. Pragmatism, consensus,and “down-to-earthness” have allowed the Nordics to findtheir own third way, where equality and socialism from theeast are combined with freedom and market forces from thewest. You can read more answers by reading the latest memberreport from the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies,The Scandinavian Way (see box).Not least, the Danish flexicurity model attracts foreignattention, and is discussed widely in international periodicalsand newspapers such as Newsweek, the InternationalHerald-Tribune, and the Financial Times. Even the usuallycritical economists of the OECD have more or less praised themodel. The international research world is also interested inthe model: Together with two other universities (includingAalborg University) and a business school, Tilburg Universityin the Netherlands has started a 3-year research program onthe flexicurity model.In many ways, the Scandinavian Way is a dream thathas already come true. So what should be the future dream?Or, in other words, how do we remain innovative when itcomes to the development of welfare, labor policy, and managementstyle?Can Scandinavian management be exported?Denmark leads the Scandinavian countries when it comes togood management, and according to the IMD, Denmark hasthe world’s best management practice. In IMD’s study of managementpractice, Scandinavia is at the top, mainly because ofexceptional strength in ethics, social responsibility, environment,health, and accounting. Each of the countries is represented atthe top. Moreover, Scandinavia leads in areas such as shareholdervalue, customer satisfaction and management trustworthinessThe interest in the Scandinavian management style is notnew, but the need for a new management style that works inthe knowledge economy is growing in many countries. Manybelieve the Scandinavian management style is better suitedfor addressing the challenges companies and organizationsface in the knowledge society. The style is network-orientedand motivating, and managers manage to empower employeesto a greater degree than with other management styles. InScandinavia, companies manage with goals and values ratherthan control and strict chains of command.IKEA’s management style around the world is thought tobe informed by the Swedish management style. According toWaldemar Schmidt, former CEO in the global service companyISS with more than 350,000 employees, the Scandinavianstyle can be exported. Schmidt made a study, with IMD andMcKinsey, a management consultancy, of Group 4, Securitas,Compass and Sodhexo. Through acquisitions, Compass andSodhexo had become familiar with Scandinavian managementstyle, and were considered to have a Scandinavian isletNORDIC REGION AND SCANDINAVIAThe Nordic countries are Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden.The Scandinavian countries are Denmark, Norway and Sweden.52 fo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk
”The flat structure has the strength ofbreaking down the borders between management and staff.What is maybe especially Scandinavian is that the low power structureis often followed up with great interestand consideration for the staff.”in their management. Something the studies could confirm.All of the companies beat their American rivals. Nevertheless,is that enough to conclude that Scandinavian managementstyle is better than other management styles?Scandinavian management is democratic management.Democratic managers are results-oriented, and enter into discussionswith subordinates to achieve consensus. Democraticmanagers who are both relation-oriented and goal-oriented,are better at creating productivity, employee happiness, andcollegiality among the staff. They create greater staff efficiency,more risk-taking, and a feeling of accomplishment.A study of the organizational structure of 1000 Danish companies,undertaken by Rambøll, showed that traditional companieswith a hierarchal organization earned an ROI of 2.45%.Modern companies, characterized by more democratic management,achieved ROI of 6.4%. 29% of the traditional companiesoperated with losses, against only 16% of the modern ones.Confidence, care and motivationAn often mentioned example, when the discussion turns toScandinavia, is the especially short power distance that makesit easy to create a flat company structure.The network philosophy and the idea of the flat organizationwere not born in Scandinavia. It became popular inthe US largely thanks to Tom Wolfe’s excellent article aboutthe inventor of the microchip, Bob Noyce, who is also knownas the Henry Ford of Silicon Valley. Scandinavia offered fertilesoil for this new way of thinking, because it put wordsto an existing specifically Scandinavian organizational trait.In 1985, Scandinavian Airlines CEO Jan Carlzon publishedhis book Riv Pyrmiderna (published in English in 1989 asMoments of Truth.) The Swedish title “Tear down the pyramids”probably better illustrates Carlzon’s thinking about flatorganizations. The book and discussion about Carlzon have,perhaps more than anything else, helped cement the understandingof something uniquely Scandinavian.The flat structure has the strength of breaking down theborders between management and staff. What is maybe especiallyScandinavian is that the low power structure is oftenfollowed up with great interest and consideration for the staff.The manager manages to communicate to his employees thatthey are important to the company, and that their values havemeaning. Therefore, it is not surprising that the Nordic countriestop the IMD list for corporate values.The core values in Scandinavian management are care andtrust, and trust is at the same time an expression that greatresponsibility is delegated to the individual employee. Theprerequisite for delegating responsibility is the generally higheducation level and that Scandinavians from childhood aretaught to think independently and critically. Nordic employeeshave developed their professional skills out of personalinterest and not from the likelihood of getting a job or goodsalary. That gives a high level of competence and some of theworld’s most motivated workers. That combination is particularlyimportant, because research into creativity shows thatthe combination of strong qualifications and motivation isrequired for creativity and, in the end, innovation.In a number of areas, the Scandinavian culture isthought to promote a more creative workplace. The shortdistance from top to bottom strengthens the flow of ideasthrough the organization. In Scandinavia, it is not so muchthe position in the organization as it is the arguments thatdecide what is right or wrong. That means there is greaterpossibility for more and freer debates. The strongly relationorientedmanagement style strengthens openness and trustin the company, which again helps promote well-being andmotivation, both critical for creativity.At a time when the need for innovation and change-readinessperhaps has never been greater, because of the growingcompetition from abroad, there are selected companiesaround the world who in remarkable ways differentiate themselvesfrom others. Nevertheless, there is probably no regionin the world that, to the degree found in Scandinavia, has thiscompany culture from childhood.Mads Øvlisen, former CEO of Novo Nordisk, a pharmaceuticalsmaker, represents the Scandinavian managementstyle. This is how he describes his experience with theAmerican model: ”Already in my time in the USA, the terrifyingthing for me was that the people, who are a company,did only what was expected of them and not what they werecapable of. I did not want to work in an American company.It was a type of military organization that was completelyhopeless. One that decided how much time you used, whenyou were promoted, what you said to whom and whom youaddressed. A hierarchy I simply could not use.”Anil Kapur, chef for Health Care Novo Nordisk India,comes from another management tradition. He says:”Mads’greatest contribution to the company is that he has shownfo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk53
THE SCANDINAVIAN WAY - By Troels Theill Eriksen, Martin Kruse and Gitte Larsentrust and confidence in people. Shown trust in their abilityto take care of things, and shown them interest. If oneperson does someone a good deed, then that person will dosomething similar for others down the chain, and that formof snowball effect will end with something we can call acorporate culture... Maybe some will ask: how can a personcontribute so much to the culture in a whole company? Well,if that person happens to be the company’s top manager, andhe acts like that every day with people, it will trickle downthrough the company.”Kapur points out, moreover, that when one shows peopletrust, they will honor it. In that sense, we can say that elementsof the Scandinavian management model can be beneficiallyexported.The good managerOver the last 60 years, at least, business has tried to figure outwhat characteristics are shared by good managers. In thesestudies, researchers have decided that management qualitiesdepend on personal qualities. Put simply, a manager is notwhat you become, it is what you are.Good management is, however, also contextual. It ischangeable and related to the surrounding world.Today, a good manager is measured against a sensiblecombination of goal-oriented and relation-oriented behavior.Professor Göran Ekvall has added a third category, changeand development-oriented behavior. Ekvall shows twomanagerial types are especially well suited to run a moderncompany. The one organizes, planning from the small stepsprinciple. Seems to handle everything, takes no unnecessaryrisks, but is not against change. Development happens overtime with continuous development. The other is, to a greaterdegree, aimed at change and is strongly relation-oriented.There is a focus on understanding and the opportunity for theindividual worker to be creative, and the management understandshow to take care of the gifted workers and get them togrow. There is more focus on leadership than management.theScandinavianwayNEW REPORT:THE SCANDINAVIAN WAYBEST PRACTICE: SWEDEN – WORLD-CLASS RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENTSweden is interesting by European standards because it has been decadesahead of other countries when it comes to research and development. In 2000,the EU set an ambitious goal for itself, the so-called Lisbon strategy. The goalis to be the most dynamic, competitive, knowledge-based economic region by2010. By 2010, the EU should use 3% of GNP on research and development, ashare that most EU countries have not yet attained. Sweden, however, reachedthis goal in 1993Medlemsrapport nr. 3/2006 The Scandinavian wayCopenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for FremtidsforskningBEST PRACTICE: NORWAY – SUCCESSFUL OIL ADVENTURE.In 1970, Norway began an oil adventure that has given it the highest GNPper capita in the world. Therefore, it should come as no surprise that Norwaycan afford a welfare state. However, the standard of living has not temptedNorwegians to rest easy. How can Norway have the world’s most productiveeconomy, when history shows that an economy based on natural resourcesoften achieves little growth and can be fatal for a country? Norway is an exampleof Best Practice when it comes to the ability to manage a natural resourcebasedeconomy in a responsible manner to the benefit of the Norwegian society.The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies’ newest Member Report,The Scandinavian Way (#3 2006), covers the factors behind the so-calledScandinavian model. The report focuses on the Scandinavian models futureopportunities and threats, and offers insights into the central challenges facingthe Nordic countries. In this Member Report, CIFS has chosen topics that areparticularly characteristic of Scandinavia, and that may be of interest not just toScandinavians, but also to our international customers who desire insight intoScandinavian conditions. The report is aimed at decision makers in internationalcompanies and organizations who want to understand the Scandinavian laborand education policies, management style, and innovation efforts.In the report, you can read about the history and special characteristics ofthe welfare state, and read special best practice reports from Denmark, Norway,Sweden, and Finland.BEST PRACTICE: FINLAND – THE NECESSARY SKILLSFinland has been forced to make radical changes to survive. A new modernFinland has risen from the wreck of the Finland that was left on its own whenits biggest cooperative partner, the Soviet Union, collapsed. Crises often compelleaders to show leadership and make unpopular, but necessary, decisions.Instead of rescuing industry, Finland invested in higher education, with a view tothe society of tomorrow. In the last five years, Finland has held first place on theWorld Economic Forum’s list of the most competitive countries. Finland uses thesecond most on research and development, and ranks first on the OECD’s rankingof educational performance. The report reveals the secret behind the Finnishresults in education, and gives a unique insight in to what can be achieved whenthe will to change is there.BEST PRACTICE: DENMARK – FLEXICURITYThe design of the Danish labor market has gotten a serious revival. The rest ofthe world is impressed with and interested in how we have managed to combinea great degree of labor market flexibility, which benefits business life and theeconomy, while ensuring a great deal of security for employees. In the report, wedescribe the flexicurity model and the reason why foreign delegations have linedup in recent years to hear more about the model that is over 100 years old.NEWS: Receive the report in English. The Copenhagen Institute for FuturesStudies member report is published four times a year – now both in Danish andEnglish. All employees in CIFS member companies can request free reports. Ifyou are uncertain if your company or organization is a member, consult the list ofmember companies on the back cover of this issue of FO/futureorientation. Thenext member report, Family and Everyday Life 2017, will be published in earlyDecember 2006.54 fo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk
THE SCANDINAVIAN WAY - By Troels Theill Eriksen, Martin Kruse and Gitte LarsenThese two management styles describe many of the facetsthat are used to describe Scandinavian management style. Aleadership style that thinks strategically long term, has an eyefor the employees’ personal development, and is strongly relation-oriented.When managers are tested for basic personalitytraits, studies show that the extroversion and conscientiousbehavior indicate who is the good manager.Interestingly enough, these are the traits that are emphasizedwhen Scandinavian management is discussed, whichis especially characterized by strongly relation-oriented andconscientious behavior. In that connection, one could assertthat Scandinavian culture helps promote qualities that arepositive in connection to management. That is not to say thatScandinavians are born managers, but the Scandinavians whoare born to be managers are possibly helped by a culture thatpromotes these traits.Future threats and challengesThe most serious threat for someone practicing Scandinavianmanagement can be the inclination to fall into laissez fairemanagement. While a laissez faire mood among the staff is themost optimal for creativity, it is paradoxically a very de-motivatingform of management. Employees want independenceand a creative organization with freedom and responsibility,but in practice, too much freedom can be destructive for anorganization. Laissez faire management is, fully in line withmodern management philosophy, characterized by offeringgreater freedom, but the laissez faire manager often forgets tomanage in an attempt to be friends with everyone. A characteristicof laissez-faire managers is that they delegate responsibilityand authority not to improve the business, but to get outof managing. They bury themselves in paperwork, are conflictshy,have no clear goals for the company, which means there isno clear direction. For employees, it means there is less groupcohesion, less concentration on work and lower qualityIf other countries would learn from Scandinavia, theymust build understanding that Scandinavian management ismore about relation-oriented management that the flat organization.One cannot create a flat organization without compensatingfor the strongly hierarchical structure with an equivalentrelation-oriented effort. Democratic management differentiatesitself from laissez faire management by, among other things,following up on delegating tasks, and ensuring employees meetthe standards. Studies have shown that managers who advancemost quickly were more relation-oriented and goal-oriented intheir management style. The balance for Scandinavian managersis, therefore, is managing to create a mood of autonomy,where the employee has freedom within marked areas, withoutthat independence degrading to the employee feeling left tohis own devices. Scandinavian management style appears tobe ideal to lead the workers of the future, but it is a demandingmanagement style, where the manager appears more as a personalcoach than a traditional management figure.Management practice varies with the economy. Whenbusiness is good, the soft values are ascendant, and in recessions,management tightens up. The increasing internationalcompetition could mean that there will be pressure to maximizelabor productivity. Scandinavian managers judge themselvesto be less goal-oriented than, for example, Americanmanagers, according to a survey by MandagMorgen andØresundbroen. The American management style can, therefore,be expected to make inroads in recession, or when theglobal competition is marked more strongly.Scandinavian managers also predict that we will seemore of this bottom-line focused management style. Theadvantage is that Scandinavians may become more goaloriented. The disadvantage is that in the long term it mayundermine the management style that both Scandinaviansand management philosophers around the world increasinglybelieve is a clear competitive advantage. If a more Americaninspiredmanagement model makes inroads, we will probablysee grater use of more measurable management stools withclear payoffs for the employees who perform. But in that connection,managers must be aware that even if that increasesproductivity, it is not a management method that can be usedto lead knowledge workers in a company that must surviveby being creative, because studies show that managementstyle creates more ideas, but of poorer quality.Managers and companies who believe that innovationis the way forward should think carefully. Managing is obviouslyeasier when one can document quarterly improvements.The middle manager is obviously better equipped at salarynegotiations when he can show he has optimized, with measurableefficiency results at hand. However, just because it iseasier and less complicated to manage does not mean thatit is better in the long term. It is not necessarily the way tocreate an environment for a labor force that must be changereadyand creative.The challenge for the managers of the future, inScandinavia and elsewhere, is to strike a balance between astrongly relation-oriented management, where the focus is onthe employee being taken care of, happy and motivated to beable to perform, and a strong profit focus. Close personal contactbetween manager and employee will probably becomeeven more important than it is today. The understanding ofwhen to pressure workers and when to back off, may makethe difference between a worker who can perform far abovetarget or collapse with stress.If the Nordic/Scandinavian countries can successfullycontinue to be innovative in their labor market policy, andif Scandinavian managers can resist pressures to take ashortsighted view, we are well on our way into the future.However, it requires more than that: we must also be ableto integrate other ways of thinking and managing in theScandinavian management style. Read more in the article”Challenge from the East” to gain insight into this perspective.TROELS THEILL ERIKSEN is a market analyst the Copenhagen Institute fromFutures Studies, email@example.com, MARTIN KRUSE is a research assistant at CIFS,firstname.lastname@example.org, and GITTE LARSEN is editor of FO/futureorientation, email@example.com .fo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk55
By Gert Holmgaard NielsenChallenge from the EastChina is the market of the future. Intheory, it has been for the past couple ofcenturies. Now it’s a reality. Western companiesneed to take a close look at Chinesebusiness and management cultures if theyare to have any hope of long-term successin such a culturally foreign market. One ofthe most important challenges is to learnhow to use both halves of the brain.Trade between China and Europe has never been greater thanit is today, but China is a difficult market. Many Westernbusiness executives visiting the country have, repeatedly,experienced the feeling of crashing into The Great Wall ofChina when negotiating with Chinese businessmen. Justas many individuals stationed in China have had the sameexperiences when they communicate with Chinese employeesworking under them.Fang Xiaohui, or Dr. Tony Fang as he prefers to be called,is a lecturer at Stockholm University. He recently held a seminarin Beijing for Chinese employees of Nordic companies inChina. He touched upon a widespread inside joke about howWestern businessmen do not always understand a Chinese “no.”The problem is: the Chinese rarely answer directly with a no”Yanjiu, yanjiu”A Swedish businessman phoned a Chinese organization,which could become a future customer, to hear about the possibilityof collaboration. Before the conversation got going,the Chinese blurted a question:“Do you know me?”“No,” said the man, “but ... ““Do I know you?”“No, but ... ““Do I know someone who you know?”The Western businessman could not answer affirmatively.Afterwards, he got the chance to speak his piece. The Chineseexecutive listened politely to a suggestion about a mutualbusiness project, and promised he would look into the matterand get back to the man. Nothing happened.“Yanjiu, yanjiu” means, “we’ll look into it,” and virtuallymeans “no” in Chinese, says Tony Fang. China is a societywith little trust in strangers or the system. On the other hand,great trust is placed in people they know. So, in China youget to know each other before doing business with each other.When sitting in negotiations with Chinese businesspartners, the thing to do—generally speaking—is to forgeteverything you learned at home. The Chinese respect andtrust people they know and mistrust those they don’t know. Itpays to take the time to establish a trusted relationship, andthat is why “no” is a no-no. For someone from the West, it isa process that demands patience. “In China the signing of acontract is simply the beginning of the relationship betweenthe partners,” Fang emphasizes.Individualization in ChineseWhen a Westerner is given the task of managing Chinese personnel,then it’s about getting them to forget about what theyhave learned at home. “When we hire new people, they learnwithin the first couple of weeks to think about what theythemselves mean about things, and not what they believe theboss means,” says Johan Björksten, a Swede.Björksten, founder and leader of Eastwei Relations, haslived in China for the past 12 years, but paid frequent visitsto the country between 1986 and 1994. He speaks fluentMandarin. “They learn to offer their opinions here, and discoverthey won’t be fired for doing so,” he ascertains. That isthe harsh reality of a Chinese company; if you criticize theboss, you are fired. And if you separate yourself from theflock and take an initiative, you also risk losing your job.Just as everything else is changing in China, however,this practice will undoubtedly also become a victim of rampantmodernization in China. Fang indicates that China isdeveloping a welfare system, and that the labor market isopen and competitive. Therefore, individual creativity willbecome increasingly appreciated.This does not necessarily mean it will be an easy transitionfor Chinese employees. In the Swedish company IKEA,56 fo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk
”When you are used to waiting on and taking ordersfrom a superior, it can be extremely difficultto make the transition into being allowed to takethe initiative for offering new ideas.”a lot is done to inform new employees about business values.The first day on the job, they are given a book that tells themthey do not simply exist for IKEA, but that IKEA also existsfor them. IKEA founder, Ingvar Kamprad, has drawn up aseries of bon mots, one of them being: everybody makes mistakes—exceptthose who are asleep.Action and experienceWriting a fine book and offering fancy words is not enough.It’s action that counts if Chinese employees are to be convinced.In Beijing earlier this year, the business was beingmoved from a site in Madian to newly-built, larger facilitiesnear Siyuanqiao—IKEA’s next-largest outlet, after Stockholm.Hao Jia, personnel manager at the store, remembers anepisode when a newly-hired young woman was helping toassemble furniture for a display in the new store. She happenedto assemble a piece incorrectly. It broke and had to bethrown away. She cried, because she was afraid she would bepunished for making an error, Hao recalls. Despite the factthat she was informed from the start that IKEA employeesneed not worry about making mistakes, but are expected tolearn from their mistakes so they wouldn’t be repeated, shewas still afraid.In such a situation, the reaction of management isimportant. If the woman is told the company has lost moneybecause of her, she will never believe the theory she learnedwhen she was hired. She was naturally informed that she hadmade a mistake, but was reassured when she was told shewas new, was doing a good job and that she simply neededto gain more experience. She was told to continue assemblingthe pieces, but also to be aware of where she had erred inthe first place, to concentrate, and to ask for help from experiencedco-workers. With this, she learned what it means tolearn from one’s mistakes.Active communicationWhen you are used to waiting on and taking orders from asuperior, it can be extremely difficult to make the transitioninto being allowed to take the initiative for offering newideas. This is one of the situations IKEA is trying to avoid,through active communication with employees.“We have always been told by our parents and teachersthat we should not think for ourselves, but to strictlydo what those in authority say we should do,” says Hao. Inother words, you never ask your superiors about anything, forthat would be interpreted as confrontation and show lack ofrespect. That is exactly why IKEA uses a highly visible systemto demonstrate good example.“Our managers—no matter how busy they are--hold apersonal meeting with each of their employees once a month,”says Hao. At the meetings they discuss the personal goalsof the employee, and how things are progressing, they talkabout skills and competency evaluation, and about whetherthe employee needs help from superiors. The employee isalso urged to give feedback to superiors.Each year, every IKEA around the world does anemployee survey where employees have the chance to evaluatethe company as an employer and evaluate their superiors.“I’m not sure Chinese companies can see the value in lettingemployees evaluate their superiors,” Hao points out.It is a long arduous task to ensure that Chinese employeesunderstand the rules of a foreign and more open formof management. “It’s as if there are no rules,” admits GaoMin, executive vice-president of Norwegian-owned Norwex.He quickly reverts to his Chinese roots and tells, ”There isan old Chinese expression that says the best rule is no rule.That stems from Taoism and is around 2000 years old. Itmeans, when you are unable to learn the rules for something,then that’s simply the way it’s meant to be and youmust respect that.”The problem of (mis)understanding is mutual. It canbe very frustrating for a Western manager, who believes anassignment is being carried out, but then discovers nothing atall has been done because the Chinese subordinate who wasgiven the assignment does not dare to report that problemshave arisen.Building bridges between the EU and ChinaThis past summer, the EU and China embarked on a majorinitiative to help European and Chinese executives buildbridges across the cultural gap. Managers Exchange andTraining Program (METP) was launched with €17.2 million infunding from the EU and €5.8 million from China. The aimof the program is to send 200 young business people fromexport industries to China over the next four years. They willget intensive courses in Mandarin and Chinese culture: 10months of language studies followed by three months as an“apprentice” at a Chinese company or organization.Just as many young Chinese business people will get thechance to come to the EU. Their program is planned as, sevenfo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk57
CHALLENGE FROM THE EAST - By Gert Holmgaard Nielsenweeks of management training followed by an apprenticeship.The lucky ones chosen—Chinese and European—will receivea grant to cover all education and living expenses.“It’s an initiative that appeared at the right time,” saysFranz Jessen, who is second-in-command at the EuropeanCommission’s “embassy” in Beijing. “Especially in light of thefact that Chinese trade with the EU has risen by nearly 70percent during the past five years. There is a clear need forboth sides to develop an understanding of each other’s businessculture.”As a rule, Nordic companies try to introduce—with success,but not without problems—a management structure thatis somewhat egalitarian and more open than the Chinese areused to. In these cases, the Chinese are the once who have todo the learning, but Jessen says both sides need to face somedemands. Psychologist Kirsten Høgh Thøgersen confirmsthere is a strong, mutual need for this. She has lived periodicallyin China for a total of 10 years and now has her ownpractice in Shanghai.She and the American anthropologist Nandani Lyntonrecently publicized the results of a study of the differencesbetween Chinese and Western executives’ ways of thinkingin negotiation situations. The conclusion among the subjectssurveyed was that Western companies with success in Chinahad all understood how to transform over to the Chineseway of thinking. Tom Behrens-Sørensen, the head of MaerskSealand in Beijing, is one of them.Problems dis-solvedChinese executives think holistically and practically. This isdemanding, for they use both halves of the brain as opposedto the process of thinking logically as we do in Europe. Weactivate only the left side. Chinese do not take one individualproblem at a time, and they don’t necessarily striveto find a direct solution. The route to a solution can windalong a series of detours, with one reason being: to avoidpersonal confrontations. While a Western executive willmove directly toward an outcome, obstacles in China arebest overcome indirectly.“The advantage of this method is speed,” says Thøgersen.“They quickly construct a building or move a factory, and theywork as effectively as ants. Naturally, sometimes things gowrong—maybe more wrong than they do in our world—butthings progress rapidly and there are a lot of hands pitching in.”What a Westerner might interpret as the Chinese veeringaway from problems is really a manifestation of how theChinese work using all their senses. They evaluate a situation,they consider the counterpart in negotiations, and at all coststhey avoid confrontations that can stop a project in its tracks.In the West, we face a problem and solve it; In China, theyface a problem and dis-solve it, is how Thøgersen puts it. “Byfocusing on a number of smaller, practical details, they dissolvethe problems,” she says.To illustrate, she tells about an episode that is also mentionedin her and Nandani Lynton’s article about Westernexecutives’ experiences with the Chinese method. An executivethey interviewed relates the following:“We recently had some incredibly difficult meetingswith our joint-venture partner. Later, they refused to meetwith a member of our board. We were in a situation wherewe had to inform them that headquarters was worried, andthat we believed the relationship had been ruined. To ourastonishment, they did not reply. Instead, they invited us toattend a performance of Carmen, along with their CEO. Mycolleague believed it was a cheap way to bribe us. But that’snot the way they think. In their eyes, we were sensible,therefore, not so easy to talk to. They had to figure out whatto do with us. They thawed the icy relationship by givingus a pleasant experience. Then their CEO asked if our CEOcould help the head of a theater company enter a cooperationwith a German opera house. Of course, he had donehis homework; he knew our CEO was an opera lover. Fromour point of view, all would be well if it was a success, andour relations improved. If it didn’t work, then they wouldattempt something else. Not that it would solve the problem;it would simply move it just a bit.”Does that sound like a convoluted process? Thøgersenhas no doubt about the Chinese method working. “They movefaster than we think they do,” she says. “We say what wethink, but we don’t know what they’re thinking. It’s appliedZen Buddhism. They are very aware of what goes on aroundthem. And they are incredibly well prepared. We cannot keepup if we don’t learn to think intuitively,” she opines.Courses in intuitive managementThe problem is, there are not very many courses in intuitivemanagement. Until now, it has mostly been learning by doingfor Western businessmen operating in China.There isn’t any indication that the EU’s METP grantaddresses the issue of increasing understanding of theChinese intuitive method. It is, however, important to learnthe method. “It can determine whether you do well or not,”says Thøgersen. She and Lynton are examining the possibilityof developing a training program. The first group to beginactivities under the METP grant start in February 2007.Recommended reading: Nandani Lynton and Kirsten Høgh Thøgersen, “HowChina Transforms an Executive’s Mind,” in Organizational Dynamics, Vol.35, nr.2,pp. 170-181. www.TonyFang.comGERT HOLMGAARD NIELSEN is a Beijing-based freelance journalist who worksfor the Danish news agency Ritzaus Bureau’s Beijing Office.58 fo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk
By Sean Pillot de Chenecey‘07 ManA growing body of opinion from men isthat the age-old binary, narrow definitionof maleness is out, and that a DIYapproach to masculinity based uponrespect, decency and intelligence is in.But not all male literature is apparentlyagreeing. So what are the real maletrends in 2007?Three books are currently appearing in just about every maletrendspresentation: The Alphabet of Manliness by Maddox,Masculinity by Harvey Mansfield and Marian Salzman’s TheFuture of Men. But which gives the clearest pointer towards‘real’ male trends in the near future?A bullying toneIn the best-selling US title The Alphabet of Manliness byMaddox (a pseudonym), he talks of the A-Z of modern manin stereotypical US ‘jock’ culture terminology i.e. phallicaggression, violence, contempt for animals, women and othercultures, intimidating rhetoric, obscure penile references,etc. including ‘ass-kicking, copping a feel, eating hot sauce,pirates, road rage and yelling…’Indeed reflecting (at least some of) this attitude has beena massively successful approach for the publishing industry.Young men’s magazines still tend to have a bullying tone thatpromoted low aspirations - where work, fatherhood & homosexualityare all taboo. In Masculinity and Men’s LifestyleMagazines by Bethan Benwell, she talks of a ‘lad media’ thatpromotes muscular/working class values - sexism, exclusivemale friendship & homophobia. Bethan Benwell writes: “Thestyle is knowing and ironic, with men being immune fromcriticism. They’re not interested in work, preferring to drink,party, holiday and watch football.”Having a purely hedonistic and ‘surface deep’ attitudeis what enrages many older men when they observe the currentcrop of youth tribes. An ongoing trend for new bandsto look and sound exactly like those from the past – withevery cool fashion reference learned seemingly by rote bynew bands and their followers - is causing friction amongstthose men in their thirties and forties that refuse to let go of‘their’ youth culture.In the US, New York magazine recently published a pieceregarding ‘Grups’ (grown-ups) where they talked of the irritationthese ‘Grup’ men have with the ‘meaningless’ consumeryouth culture that exists now. They also resent being talkeddown to by younger guys who ‘haven’t earned the right’- hence quotes about how they find it distasteful that thepopular culture of their youth, in which they once invested somuch raw emotion, is enjoyed by younger people today as aform of kitsch: “That pisses me off. They’ve created no freshculture of their own. All the recent or current music is soderivative. Oasis sounded like the Beatles, the Dandy Warholssound like the Stones and Kasabian sound like the HappyMondays,” the article states.When youth culture was for realYet, in the UK, one of the most interesting trends in maleculture relates to a peace now breaking out in the ‘age-wars’,a trend led by the (genuinely) young. Simply put, gettingolder no longer automatically throws up the barriers betweengenerations that it used to – at least according to youth. Withyouth culture now ‘officially’ more than fifty years old, agrowing realization amongst young people and the youthpress is that the original teenagers (who are now reachingretirement age) may well include their older relatives andneighbors – who can tell them all about what it was like firsttime round when youth culture was ‘for real’.The vast numbers of new guitar bands, currently shownby those like The Young Knives and The View etc., shows nosign of abating, and youth culture continues to obsessivelylook to the past for ‘cool’ inspiration, but in what is oftenderided as a ‘surface deep’ level where context is forgottenand ‘the look’ is everything. It’s often been said that the fashionindustry trivializes everything it touches, and with musicper se now being dismissed by many cultural commentatorsas purely being another arm of the vast entertainment industry(i.e. about as ‘edgy’ as the current favorite video game)perhaps the agitprop music-based movements of old reallyhave had their day. Revolt into style indeed.Dead man livingSo ‘cool’ is lightweight and meaningless, argues HarveyMansfield, where in his new book Masculinity, he calls for aresurgence of ‘Real Men’ and strong and positive male rolemodels. He talks of the US ideal of manliness being a totallyconfused one, with the answer – that most Americans givewhen asked to define a ‘real man’ – being ‘John Wayne’, amale icon who’s been dead for over a quarter of a century.fo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk59
‘07 MAN - By Sean Pillot de CheneceyMansfield suggests the renewal of themes like Public Duty,Honor, Moral Obligation, Emotional Restraint and Fatherhoodare the answer to the crisis in masculinity caused by the riseof absent fathers, broken families, delinquent sons and thedisastrous collapse of paternal authority.Many support his view – especially amongst theRepublican right – i.e. those like the US ‘Men’s Activism’movement where one of their mantras or ‘Warrior Goals’ (asfound on the website: mensactivism.org) is to ‘Become a betterfather’. Elsewhere, a reaction to these ‘dangerous moderntimes’ (where, to quote Francis Fukyama “Fear, Uncertaintyand Doubt” rule) is shown in male-icon terms by the renewedrespect for ‘proper men doing manly things’ as illustrated bythe blue collar rescuers of 9/11 and a new mood for ‘ManlyAssertiveness’.Meaning and happinessIndeed every trend researcher working on male consumerprojects hears men in focus groups or depth interviewscomplaining of a feeling of rootlessness - something thatMansfield puts down to living in a pop culture society anda desire for testing themselves. A direct knock-on effect ofthis has been shown by the huge popularity of books andprograms that deal with social history, currently illustrated byan obsession with our great grandfathers generation and theFirst World War, consumed by real young people, and notmerely war obsessives who’ll happily read or watch anythingthat comes with a few guaranteed explosions.Yet the opposite of the resurgent traditional type ofmasculinity required in Mansfields ‘real world of harshreality’ and certainly the opposite of being constricted bya 1950’s style binary version of it, is demonstrated by thehuge popularity of those obsessed with living second oronline lives via role play games like ‘Everquest’ and ‘Worldof Warcraft’. Not that these are purely the domain of (terminallydull) men, as shown by the 40 percent female followingof the equally uninspiring ‘City of Heroes’ where a‘hermitizim for the win’ clarion call proudly proclaims thebenefits of never forsaking the comfort blanket of your PC,or indeed actually leaving the house.What’s remarkable in cultural terms here is the methodologyof achieving success in these games. Namely peopleworking together using their individual skills to gainsomething useful for each one of themselves – a utopia thatsounds at odds perhaps to the day-to-day reality of mutualsuspicion and subterfuge for most office workers.And it’s also in day-to-day office life that we see trendsillustrating real signs of major, structural change where happinessis of prime importance. Cultural studies tell us that, inday-to-day terms, masculinity was merely about production,work and responsibility. Old stereotypes of (male) work wereoften summed up by statements like ‘men deny themselvesin order to provide for their wives and families’ where workwas essentially something to be endured and was the premierlocation of a mans expression of his individuality. Soa continuing move towards adding pleasure via having ‘thejob of choice’ is also a driver of the modern man. In his bookThe Happiness Hypothesis, Professor Martin Seligman of theUniversity of Pennsylvania, the father of positive psychologysuggest that the happiness formulae can be boiled down to:pleasure + engagement + meaning = happiness.The new maleness: the urban knightSo, for “‘07 Man” perhaps what’s emerging is summed up byMarian Salzman in The Future of Men where she discusses amasculinity that combines the best of traditional manliness(strength, honor, character) with positive traits traditionallyassociated with females (nurturance, communicativeness,cooperation). A mode of living that is personalized and genderneutral or ambivalent. A lifestyle that emphasizes higherqualityemotional and physical pleasures - male pleasures- that comes from knowing oneself and ones potential.Marian Salzman forecasts the future of masculinity to beone involving renewed respect, a broadening of what’s masculine,men adopting female traits and accepting differencesby letting everyone play the game. She agrees that men areindeed requesting and adopting new ways of living and working,and that the foundations and aspirations of quality andsuccess are being redefined.And it’s this issue of redefinition that is setting the tonefor men as we look to the near future. A growing body ofopinion from men is that the age-old binary, narrow definitionof maleness is out, and that a DIY approach to masculinitybased upon respect, decency and intelligence is in. For themodern city living, office bound man, this perhaps meanswaving goodbye to the urban warrior and saying hello to theurban knight.SEAN PILLOT DE CHENECEY is a researcher & trends analyst based in the UK.www.captaincrikey.com60 fo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk
By Christine Lind DitlevsenCan women play the gameat executive level?The ability to play will be a professionalqualification In the future. Playing willbecome a greater part of our workinglife in these times where creativity is inhigh demand. But what does it mean toplay? Meet the researcher and the futureresearcher in a conversation aboutmen’s and women’s different ways toplay and read about the consequencesfor the future labor market.Playing is essential for people throughout life. Adults playalmost as much as children – it is just called somethingelse. We play when we do something that is exciting andfun and that we cannot leave alone: when we want to createa good mood or when we pursue leisure activities likesports, music, collection mania or another hobby, or whenwe meet at a party or other social event. We play becausewe get a kick out of it, just like children can be excited bya good game that absorbs them. But there is a differencebetween how women and men let themselves be absorbedand how they play.Until now, women’s games have been hidden in aesthetics,shopping and in conversation. At first glance, theseactivities are not seen as games, because men historicallydefine the framework and conditions. Traditional masculinegames are competitive games, chance games and“rush games.” Today, games belong mostly to private life,but as new social media, the network way of thinking andindividualism make headway in the market and workplace,women’s games and skills needed to play them will begood cards to hold.Why women don’t playThe table is nicely set with tea and freshly baked buns. Butwe do not have time to enjoy them because we are heavilyengaged in a conversation about female truckers. Wehave met to discuss why women don’t play. The host isThessa Jensen, lecturer in digital media at the Institutefor Communication at Aalborg University and a dedicatedresearcher of society’s relationship to and use of playing andgames, with special focus on interactive digital media. Theguest is the author, a futurist at Copenhagen Institute forFutures Studies. I am very interested in knowing if I am rightin my claim that women do not play.I ask Jensen whether women play when they work andif they can handle using the game’s qualities in their professionallife.“If we are to apply the four ways to play (see box aboutplay on page 65) to working life, it is obvious that Alea, Agônand Illinix are masculine ways of playing at work. It is menwho play in the share market, invest and put money intoprojects. The competition game, Agôn, is also for men. Thewoman as a rule does not compete at all, and if she does, shemust act like a man and be completely at the mercy of men’sterms. So she is not characterized as a woman. It is just thesame with Illinix. Who is it that lets it tingle in their tummy?It is the entrepreneur, who without much planning borrowsone million and jumps into an adventure. Women start verysmall and very safe, preferably with some art & craft, andwith both feet planted firmly on the ground,” says Jensen.The woman fits well into the last mode of playing,which is called Mimicry or mimic game. Indeed, the ideaof copying something and letting oneself be absorbed byan already existing agenda is women’s specialty. Maybethat is why the top female manager is a rarity? Alreadyfrom childhood, dollhouses and “Dad, Mum and child” arefavorite games for small girls. In these types of games,the “as if” way of thinking is used to the maximumdegree. Even though playing is fundamental for peopleand society, so too are many of the historically traditionalman-games. In other words, women mostly play gamesthat have different starting points to men. Chance games,competition and, perhaps, the “rush games” are classicadrenalin-pumping, targeted games that often appeal moreto men than women.But when girls play, and we say women don’t play, is itbecause we quickly stop being girls? That is the case accordingto toy makers. Jensen says that girls quickly stop playing.This happens already at the age of eight, while boys firststop at the age of 12, when they continue wit, for example,advanced computer games. After girls have turn 8, they nolonger need to develop new games and props, because theyenter the adult world by continuing to imitate it throughfashion, chat rooms and mobile phones. In other words, theyno longer play with traditional toys.fo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk61
“In the future,maybe people will– freed up from their jobas work – become theconstant homo ludens,whose life is invention:The human whoplays all his life.”62 fo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk
CAN WOMEN PLAY THE GAME AT EXECUTIVE LEVEL?- By Christine Lind DitlevsenAbility to play at workThe creative industries’ economy has moved playing as acultural creator into every day life in such forms as computergames, and into working life in the form of demands for creativityand innovative thinking made on employees. Playingis therefore no longer something that can be isolated fromwhat we otherwise do – playing has actually become a part ofnormal life.Working life places great demands on the individualemployee’s performance. It is not enough to spend most ofone’s hours awake at work, deliver on time and overall dowhat is expected. The employees must be able to challengehis/her own limits, to think “out of the box,” be creative inhis/her work processes and demonstrate that he/she canunderstand and use the workplace’s unspoken rules of thegame. Women have, since they began seriously participatingin work outside home in the 1960s, have worked primarilyin production, services and in offices. These roles invite littleindependence or creativity. With new demands also on thesetypes of jobs, which are still mainly filled by women, our abilityto play at work is seriously put to the test.The workforce’s demands on women and men respectivelyare linked to society’s basic needs for and perception ofplay. One example is the transport sector, which needs people,and where now there is talk of bringing in women. The effectis not, however, as positive as one might think. A commonphenomenon is that when women begin to take jobs traditionallyfilled by men, both the status of the job and its salaryfall – as with the case of physicians. It is tempting to cast aneye at Callois’ Mimicry concept here. Thessa Jensen believesthat it is because women are very good at slipping into existingexpectations and living up to the role she expects mustbe hers. This means that she does not make demands orchallenge limits the way men do. Another example is salarynegotiation, where men are much better at asking for a raise.A third example is that more women than men break downwith stress. Women do not, to the same extent as men, say noto demands they cannot meet – they just try harder.Maybe we still live with the tradition that women donot get the chance to do much? Not even in playing either.We live with an attitude that women must be happy if theycan get the same jobs as men can. Is this possibly an expressionof the fear of failure, which results in a victim mentality?Or is it because women dare not ask for more in salarybecause they think: “I already have so little responsibilityand pay, and I am about to die of stress. How would it everwork out?”Thessa Jensen responds, “Yes I think so. I also want toask why it is not the man who works part-time when thingsare falling apart. If a woman had more spare time, would shethen use it to take time off? Women are driven by a doublesided problem which consists equally as much of poor selfconfidenceand as well as a belief that everything will fallapart if we are not there.”According to social discourse, men have always had moreimportant work than women. He has had more responsibilityand has earned more. His role as the provider has been moreimportant than the woman’s role, which in the beginningcould best be described as self-fulfilling. Therefore, he hasbeen able to take it as a matter of course that he has the rightto knock off when he was not at work - and actually seriouslyrelax without tidying up or planning. The woman has alwayson that account been in debt, and so it was she who wasdomestic when both were off work. It was also in the homethat the woman could demonstrate the best she could. This ishow it was in our grandparents’ time and our grandmotherstaught our mothers this. So if women do not play, it is maybebecause they are busy working outside the home and insidethe home after work.But what is it that makes it so unattractive for the manto be involved in cleaning and cooking? “The man doesn’tfind this attractive because cleaning and cooking are routinejobs. He is not allowed to play there,” says Jensen. If the manis to take an interest in cleaning and cooking, the jobs haveto be an experiment. Would it be attractive if he could makehis own bacteria exterminating Molotov cocktail and vacuumwith a machine that is as noisy as an F16 and which displaysthe processes in the vacuum through a transparent lid?Thessa Jensen continues: “I have not yet met a man whohas said: “What! Isn’t the kitchen cleaned up? We can’t goanywhere until the kitchen is cleaned up. The woman makesthese demands – woman to woman. Our mothers and sistersraise us to believe that we must handle all the practical thingsbefore we start anything else. Women do not give themselvesthe chance to relax. But if the man can sit and relax one hourin front of the computer, so can the woman.”Why are we so afraid of what our female peers thinkabout us? Maybe the next step for equality of the sexes isfreedom from other women’s expectations?Women play in the homeAll surveys show that it is women who buy things for anddecorate the home, and it is the woman who sets the overallguidelines and timetables, and who organizes big events inthe home. The woman is the home’s project leader.Of the project groups that Thessa Jensen advises at theuniversity, the pure female groups work the best. Right fromthe beginning they have the framework and role split workedout and they normally end up with a good grade for theproject. The male groups are polarized: One kind consistsof unstructured guys who sit and yell about how cool thisproject is and how fantastic their performance of tasks willbe. They typically end up with low grades. The other type iswith guys who really don’t have a grip on anything but whofollow a wild idea and they are awarded now and then withthe highest grade. “I experience that the male students playtheir way through their studies. They practically throw themselvesinto something with a kind of “let’s see what comes outfo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk63
CAN WOMEN PLAY THE GAME AT EXECUTIVE LEVEL?- By Christine Lind Ditlevsenof this” like attitude, whilst the women know what they wantand are focused,” says Tessa Jensen.Can it be that men lack will power and women lackvision? We agree that women love responsibility and hate itwhen men do not take it. Women need to have control of everythingand so we can conclude that at least part of a woman’sgame must be linked with control. While we take one last lookat women’s work in the home, it becomes evident to us that inaddition to a lot of social compulsive behavior, biological clockarrangements and remainders from the battle of the sexes, thewoman simply gets a lot of pleasure from running a household– in decorating and making things around her beautiful.Do women play when they arrange an inviting cheeseplatter? Do we play when we make sure the pillows, lightsand curtains match? According to Thessa Jensen, that isexactly what we do. It is just that much more complicated tocall aesthetics a game, because such a game is not about copying,getting tingles in our tummy or winning.“Broadly speaking, women are just not cut out for competitivesociety, because we can’t compete on our key competence.We cannot be challenged at being the best to give birthto children,” says Jensen. One could say that what womencompete about today is who the perfect woman is, so in thisway we participate in a competition. But it happens only onat a meta-plan level, because there are no agreed rules, andmany of those who participate are not aware of it themselves.“Yes, and most importantly: It is not a game, because it is nota question of “as if”. Women must be perfect and we take itdead seriously,” emphasizes Jensen.One could claim that there is something called aestheticcompetitions. When women ‘flash’ surplus energy by servinghomemade orange marmalade, having home-embroideredpillows and showing off the children’s room which is smartand spotless, it can be compared with playing with a “life-size”doll’s house.“Society is kept going by consumption,” says Jensen, whoadds, “and aestheticizing is very much linked to consumption.The aestheticizing of our home and ourselves requires thatwe follow trends. This requires that we have the latest designof placemats. To be aestheticizing has become an industry,which constantly leads us on to new trends and shows us new‘toys’. It is in this way that our game is constantly describedby society.” In other words: Women play in the home, but itdoes not resemble play in the male defined form.Women play when they shopShopping is the favorite pastime of many women. “Womentake shopping seriously. It is a free space which does nothave to be rushed by the man because he wants to go toBauhaus,” says Jensen. In Germany, there are bars whereone leaves the man and pays 10 Euro. Inside there is thepossibility to do some handicraft, read the newspaper orwatch sport and he can have something to eat. The womancan simultaneously take the time necessary to buy groceriesor shop.What one looks at and dreams about when shopping couldpossibly be considered as things one really doesn’t need,like luxury goods. So shopping is often viewed as frivolous.We do not shop to buy a new washing machine or a car.Shopping is actually not necessarily about buying, but muchmore about dreaming. “We have a research group at the universitythat works on aesthetics, advertising and shopping.One group consisted of middle-aged men discussing how ashopping center should be designed in terms of aestheticexperiences etc. Instead, they sat and discussed how womenspend heaps of money, and they actually don’t do that. Theyspend time,” says Jensen.Women spend time investigating what is available– finding out where one has to go to find what is interesting.Women also spend time dreaming, talking and building relations.All of this has to be considered in the shopping centerif it is to be a success. It sounds a bit like we are close towomen’s number two game. It is possibly here where womencan experiment and go beyond barriers.Do women play when they shop? “Yes, I actually believethey do,” answers Jensen. She believes that when womenshop they step out of the controlling and overview-like role.Who said that shops cannot be pink and full of candyand magazines? Why does a computer bag have to black?”she asks. On the other hand, I think and ask: Why does ithave to be so fluffy because it is for women? Jensen answers:“Why not? Why can’t we make a pink difference and still beable to demand to be taken seriously?”Conversation as a gameWhen little girls play together, they use all the time on settingup the framework and definitions, whilst the boys jumpstraight into the situation (the battle, the hunt, the race). Canone claim without lying that women are terrible at playing,because we are so good at keeping house and managing?It must be the feminists who stick their necks out. Justbecause women’s requirement or need for a well-groomedhome is different from what men demand – and is mostlikely based on aesthetics rather than functionality – it isstill a demand. “The woman reverts to an image of herself asoppressed when she focuses on being taken seriously by theman instead of by the criteria she stands for, which are notmet. And we have not even seriously spoken about the guiltyconscience related to thinking of oneself first rather than lettingthe children or the man be the first priority.”Having a guilty conscience about the children is causedby two things: We do not have enough time and the relationshipto our children is not, like in the past, based on theparent as the raiser, safe haven and financial source, butabout the parent as the love source. And you can’t ever giveenough love, because it should be limitless. So this is wherethe involvement of children – and playing with them – comesto resemble events. Every time mum or dad have a sparehour it must be used to give love and attention to the child,and one does not therefore use the time to carry newspapers64 fo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk
CAN WOMEN PLAY THE GAME AT EXECUTIVE LEVEL?- By Christine Lind Ditlevsendownstairs or to bake some bread. One “carries newspapersdown” and “bakes bread” so that the child can experience thistogether with the parent. In this way, we create event families.There is never any time that is allowed to just go by.“While we know that it is the woman who is responsiblefor arrangements, the maintenance of the home etc., it doesn’tleave much time for playing,” points out Jensen, who continues,“the woman is both the project leader and the communicationdirector of the home. The women are relation creators andmaintain them: the family dinners, the birthdays, the dinnerswith other couples, festivities etc. When the woman communicates,it is to keep the network alive. Conversations were the traditionalsociety’s news mediums and survival networks, whilsttoday they still give the woman’s life cohesion. Conversationcreates a link between all the functions the woman has.”What do women do when they finally knock off work?They talk. Men meet for a beer or sport. Women meet to talk.It is a female thing to maintain a friendship, to talk about thisand that and mirror oneself in each other’s lives. Men’s internalsociology makes them compete. A potential conflict liesin men’s time together because it is based on the “I am betterthan you” way of thinking, whilst in women’s togethernessthere is a potential softening in the discourse and an “I amlike you” mindset. The relationship creating conversation isa female talent. This fits well with the fact that more womenthan men are employed in the branch of communication.Thessa and I agree that conversation must be women’s thirdway of playing.Women’s games and working lifeWomen will probably never make it to the top of the knowledgeeconomy unless they let go of their belief that they haveto be men to be allowed to play the game at executive level. Onthe other hand, there are good possibilities if women use theirabilities in the world of playing – also in their working life.In our conversations, Thessa Jensen and I have foundthat women play in three ways:1. The aestheticizing game, which today primarily occursin the home. These games are about conceptualizing andmanaging, but also about changing something for thebetter by making it more inviting, appetizing or in lineWHAT IS PLAYING?The cultural historian and play theorist Johan Huizinga studies in his book HomoLudens (The playing human, ed.) the role of playing within a number of culturalphenomenons. According to him playing is “a voluntary act or function which isplayed out within certain set spatial and time limits. Despite voluntariness thegame is played according to strict binding rules, is a goal in itself and is accompaniedby a feeling of excitement and happiness and a sense of it being somethingelse than normal life.” But even though playing is an intermezzo which isnot taken as seriously as the rest of life, Huizinga believes that playing howeverhas a bigger role in people’s existence. Playing is actually fundamental for beinga person and he writes: “It gives life fullness and color and is to an extent essentialboth for the individual as a biological function and for society, based on itssignificance and symbolic value, and because it creates spiritual and social relations.In brief it is indispensable as a function of culture.”According to anthropologist Gregory Bateson, a human plays by puttinginverted commas around certain actions and in this way creating an “as if space”in which the players’ behavior is not taken seriously. Bateson points out that it isnot only the human who plays but that we – unlike our hairy relations – have theadvantage of having the possibility to describe and stage our games. We canput words on what the game is and let the game be the discourse for many differentactions. Playing is not just something that happens in the children’s roomand on the rounders (baseball-like game) field, but a part of our activities all over,for e.g. in the form of creative behavior, games, entertaining actions and informaltogetherness.Many other philosophers and social researchers have studied playing aspart of – or actually fundamental for – adult humans’ lives. Friedrich Siller considersfor e.g. playing as an aesthetic experience - in other words, as the way weunite the physical world with the conceptual world. But the cultural sociologistRoger Callois follows in Huizinga’s footsteps and further develops the idea ofplaying being culturally creative. Callois splits playing into four archetypes:MEN AND WOMEN IN DANISH BUSINESS- There are many more male entrepreneurs than female and they perform better.In a list of Denmark’s 50 wealthiest, published by Danish business magazineBerlingske Nyhedsmagasin, female entrepreneurs have not yet createdany of the country’s largest entrepreneurial successes. Out of the 50 richestDanes there are 27 entrepreneurs who have gone on the journey from inventiveentrepreneur to self-made billionaire. None of them are women.- There are significantly more male top managers – both in the public sectorand in private industry. In the new Danish municipalities women hold only16% of the senior executive positions, i.e. board of management, includingcity manager. In more than 20 of the municipalities there is not one femalesenior executive and the difference in salaries between men and womenemployed in the municipality is on average 13%. The Danish Employers’Confederation showed that only 16.6% of senior executives in private industryare women. At group management level women occupy less than one quarterof the jobs.- Traditional masculine branches like engineering and IT are still full of men.Only 15% of Danish engineers are women, while 23% of the Union ofCommercial and Clerical Employees’ members employed within technical ITareas are women. In the computer giant IBM only 25% of all employees arewomen.Source: InfoMedia1. Alea or chance games (for e.g. Lotto and dice games)2. Agôn or competitive games3. Illinx or “rush” games (for e.g. parachuting and roller coaster riding)4. Mimicry or mimicking games (for e.g. role playing)In the chance games the idea is to win by luck. In competitions you win by beingclever. In “rush” games it’s about experiencing a rush of adrenalin. In mimickinggames one has an empathetic experience. The first two types of games distinguishthemselves by both being about winning, while the later two are experienceoriented.fo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk65
FO/fremtidsorientering #4 2006Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for FremtidsforskningCAN WOMEN PLAY THE GAME AT EXECUTIVE LEVEL?- By Christine Lind Ditlevsenwith the integral whole and by having a personal influenceon things.2. The shopping game, which women play when they areconsumers and which is about jumping out of the roleas the one who has control to being like a child again ina candy store, where the especially attractive goods arechosen. Women delight in finding the right things for theright occasions.3. The conversation game. Last but not least, women alsoplay a more subtle game, namely a social, relationship creating,empathetic and potentially softening game:the conversation.Women can advantageously implement these three types ofgames into workplaces and into working life. The labor marketis right now seeking people with abilities to communicateand create networks and people who have management skillsin the form of single mindedness, tact, and social drive. Thesearch is on for self-managing employees with an overviewand quality awareness and who have a talent for letting formand content create a synthesis. These competencies, likewomen’s ways to play, are in reality in high demand in thelabor market. They just need to be re-launched and describedas valuable, female competencies and in this way complementthe traditional virtues in care and practical functions, whichhave for a long time been the image of women’s abilities.All three types of games demonstrate that women areclever project managers – professionally, cross-functionally andsocially. But if you look into each individual game, you findeven more fuel, which can make working life in the future runmore smoothly. The aestheticizing games indicate that womencould take responsibility for our workplaces being designed sothey are nicer to be in. As it is, people who create value in thecreative knowledge economy, employees probably also needsome other frameworks than gray offices. Maybe it should bewomen who design the future’s office environments and thinkabout light, sound, color etc. in their entirety?The shopping game demonstrates that women are good atputting together teams and cross-functional project groups.Everything indicates that the ability to have an eye forbeauty and the special, and the ability to find the rightcombination of people for the right assignments, will be ineven more demand in a future where working life will befurther fragmented.Finally, the conversation game indicates that throughtheir communication abilities women will have a big advantagein the future. The anarchistic consumer is already a bigchallenge for the market and the development of, amongother things, the social media forces companies to enter intovery close dialogue with the world around them and to thinkmore in terms of establishing relationships than in managingan image. As relations are more important than positions,women will therefore be able to seriously play the game.Sources: ”Hvad kvinder og mænd bruger tiden til”, (Ed. “What women and menspend time on”), Social Research Institute 2003. ”Leg fortolket for voksne”, (Ed.“Play interpreted for adults”), Tem Frank Andersen, Aalborg University. ”HomoLudens, Vom Ursprung der Kultur im Spiel”, (Ed. “The cultural offspring of playing“),Rowolhlts Encyclopedia, Germany 2004). http://www.anetq.dk/undrblog/Discussion topic: ”Hvorfor leger kvinder ikke”, (Ed. ”Why don’t women play”),comments from 12 bloggers.InfoMedia: ”Iværksættere: Kvinder bygger ikke imperier” (Ed. ”Entrepreneurs:Women don’t build empires”), Danish news magazine, BerlingskesNyhedsmagasin November 25, 2005. ”De nye kommuner: Mænd har magten”(Ed. The new municipalities: Men have the power”, Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten January 3, 2006. ”Døren åben for kvinderne” (Ed.”The door is open forwomen”), Danish newspaper Morgenavisen Jyllandsposten January 4, 2006.”Status på kvindenetværk” (Ed. ”Status of women’s network”), Danish newspaperBerlingske Tidende, March 15, 2006. ”Kvinder beslutter bedre” (Ed, ”Womenmake better decisions”), Danish financial newspaper Erhvervsbladet, May 5,2006. ”Fremtidens leder er en kvinde” (Ed. The future’s leader is a woman),Danish financial newspaper Børsen, July 17, 2006. ”Det stærke iværksætterkøn” (Ed. “The strong entrepreneurial sex”), Danish newspaper BerlingskeTidende, July 24, 2006. ”Flere kvinder vil være ingeniører” (Ed. “More womenwant to be engineers”), Danish newspaper Dagbladet Roskilde, July 29, 2006.”Dansk Metal: Flere kvinder til it-branchen” (Ed. “Danish Metal Workers Union:More women for IT”), Danish newspaper Morgenavisen Jyllands-Posten, August2, 2006. ”Kvinderne tør ikke” (Ed. “Women don’t dare”), Danish newsletterUgebrevet A4, August 28, 2006.CHRISTINE LIND DITLEVSEN is a religion historian and future researcher at theInstitute for Future Studies. firstname.lastname@example.org tema: Consulting TimeFO subscriptionPRICE: Annual subscription (6 issues): EURO 250 + shipping.This includes oneprinted copy of each issue and online access to the growing database of FOarticles (currently about 100 articles in English from the period 2003-2005).CONTACT: Ellen Mauri, secretary, per e-mail at email@example.com or telephone at+45 3311 7176, or Gitte Larsen, Editor, at firstname.lastname@example.orgIP-SUBSCRIPTION: Contact Klaus Busk per e-mail at email@example.com +45 3311 7176 for more information about IP-solutions and pricesComing issues:#6 - Dec. 2006: New Business Models#1 - Feb. 2007: Fights about the future#2 - April 2007: Women and power#3 - June 2007: TechnologyFO in Danish:If you prefer your FO in Danish, please contact FO-secretary Ellen Mauri pere-mail firstname.lastname@example.org or telephone at +45 3311 7176. You can also always findthe Danish version on www.cifs.dk/fo66 fo#05 2006 www.cifs.dk
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