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Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning ...

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning ...

3.0 Conducting a

3.0 Conducting a Vulnerability AssessmentAn example of results from a landward site 1 anda seaward site 2 (shown in Figure 17) are given inFigures 18 and 19. The landward edge at Yoyo is shownto be stable over the time period, indicating resilienceto any human or natural disturbance (Figure 18). Bycontrast, the seaward mangrove island, KwelekweleIsland, has been losing area over the time period,indicating strong vulnerability to rising sea level(Figures 19 and 20). This spatial change at KwelekweleIsland was quantified using GIS to give the area changeresults in Table 12.Overall results from the Douala Estuary mangrove GISstudy (Zouh, 2010) showed that, although this offshoremangrove island used to be nine times larger in 1975than what remains 35 years later, the majority ofmangroves of the estuary have shown little change inarea in the last 20 years.Investigation of ground surface elevations within theDouala Estuary later found that ground surfaces underRhizophora mangroves on Kwelekwele Island were atleast 35 cm lower in elevation than the seaward edgeDouala EstuaryLEGENDRhizophoraMixed mangroveAvicenniaLandward forestSand spitGIS sites 1: Yoyo2: Kwelekwele Island2N5000 metres1By Michael HelmanFigure 17. Douala Estuary mangrove area (adapted from Ellison & Strickland, 2010a) showing GIS study sites.34 | Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning for Mangrove Systems

3.0 Conducting a Vulnerability AssessmentDate Image Time interval(years)Cumulative time relativeto base (years)Clarity of image1975 Landsat MSS base base Very clear1986 LandsatTM2000 LandsatETM2007 LandsatETM+2010 (Ground-truthing) 3 3511 11 Clear14 25 Partially clouded7 32 Clear but with gaps due to sensor’s scan linecorrector (SLC) mechanism failure on May 31, 2003Table 11. Characteristics of available satellite images used in the Cameroon case study (Zouh, 2010).of the main body of Rhizophora in therest of the estuary (Figure 17). Duringthe compilation of local communityknowledge (subsection 3.9), interviewswith older residents of nearby villagesrevealed that they either visited orlived on Kwelekwele Island in thelate 1970s and early 1980s as it was amajor fishing market for the region.Then sea level inundation and constantdestruction of buildings caused theisland’s population to reduce graduallyuntil there was a major inundationon the island in the mid 1980s,which finally caused the remainingpopulation to leave (Ajonina et al.,2011). This case study demonstrateshow offshore islands at the seawardedge are especially vulnerable torising sea level owing to their lowerelevation, particularly when combinedwith human disturbance.Figure 18. Mangrove landward margin change near Yoyo I and IIvillages, Douala Estuary, Cameroon (from Zouh, 2010). This site showslittle change and hence would have a reduction in mangrove areavulnerability score = 1 (little change).Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning for Mangrove Systems | 35

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