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The North American and Northeastern US Natural Gas Markets

The North American and Northeastern US Natural Gas Markets

www.woodmac.comNear-term

www.woodmac.comNear-term North American Gas Markets: Not What They SeemCurrent prices are NO indicator of long-term value, or cost of natural gas.• The current situation has resulted from a coincidental production high anddemand low; both factors will reverseBut – the intense competition between gas and coal will last several years• Rising Gas prices will reflect the shift as gas will lose coal displacementdemand, indicating less gas to meet displacement demand• Limited volatility, as displacement demand elasticity remains strongLonger Term– gas prices are defined by the marginal cost of production• Not $4 or even $5, but…$5.50 - $6.00; this is still indicative of a well-suppliedcommodity market© Wood Mackenzie 2Delivering commercial insight

www.woodmac.comThe next five years…Gas and liquids prices, gas drilling251,600Intense competition between gas andcoal through 2015; $5.00/mmbtu by20205Gas Rigs$4.00sNGL BarrelHenry Hub400200• Drilling in dry gas plays recovers02008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170© Wood Mackenzie 3Delivering commercial insight

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