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Zimbabwe HIV/AIDS Partnership Project & Behaviour Change

Zimbabwe HIV/AIDS Partnership Project & Behaviour Change

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Select ResearchN. Bakasa, Senior Research ExecutiveTov Manene, Managing DirectorTsungiriraiNhyorowai Kanengeya, Finance & Administration ManagerChiedza Mutandiro, Program ManagerJohn Brown Ncube, DirectorUNFPADr. Clemmens Benedikt, HIV Prevention Programme ManagerUnilever ZimbabweMaxen Karombo, Managing DirectorUSAID/ZimbabweKaren Freeman, DirectorPeter Halpert, Health Team LeaderDerek Kunaka, Health TeamAmy Tohill Stull, Program OfficerKevin Sturr, Team Leader–Democracy and GovernanceU.S. EmbassyJames D. McGee, AmbassadorUZ-HAQOCIDr. M. Mandivenyi, Site ManagerDavid Manyika, Finance ManagerYouth in Development TrustVongai Manungo, Projects OfficerMoses Mutyasira, DirectorN. Tom, Projects OfficerZimbabwe AIDS Prevention Project (ZAPP)Winfreda Chandisarewa, Project ManagerZimbabwe National Family Planning CouncilDr. S. S. Simela Chiriva, Executive DirectorZimbabwe Women’s Resource Center and NetworkMs. Dorothy Adbanjo, DirectorZimbabwe HIV/AIDS Partnership Project & Behaviour Change Programme: A Joint USAID/DFID Assessment 41

APPENDIX C. RISK SCENARIOS FOR PROGRAMIMPLEMENTATION AND ACHIEVEMENT OFANTICIPATED RESULTSTABLE 1. RISK SCENARIO 1: CIRCUMSTANCES REMAIN THE SAME—UNCHANGED RISK (MEDIUM)LIKELIHOODOngoingRISK FACTORSHyperinflation continuesContinued legal barriers for forexdealersIncreased or continued taxationPROGRAMMATICIMPLICATIONSExchange rate fluctuations make costshighly volatile.Cash shortages complicateimplementation.RBZ FCA controls continue.Price controls limit cost-recovery.Staff motivation challenged.Possible Movement again restricted Inability to reach some beneficiaries andrisk to program outputsUnlikely Donors resort to sanctions on funding Loss of funding supportRelations with GOZ/MOH deteriorate Loss of policy and implementationsupportTABLE 2. RISK SCENARIO 2: IMPLEMENTATION ENVIRONMENT DECLINES —INCREASED RISK (HIGH)PROGRAMMATICLIKELIHOOD RISK FACTORSIMPLICATIONSPossibleHyperinflation worsens.Legal barriers for foreign exchangedealers increase.Increased taxation on US$ spendingIncreasingly hard to procure goods andservicesOutlet closures increase.Vendor and partner attritionDecline in roads, communications,electricityReduced capacity to purchasegoods/servicesHeightened forex shortagesNeed to pay recurring costs in advanceIncreasing time/effort used to cope withsituation rather than deliveryStaff attrition may rise.PossibleUnlikelyMovement restrictions continue.Blurred lines of authority/powerWorsening securityDonor health sector sanctionsRelations with GOZ/MOH deteriorate,preventing donor, project, and/or PSIfrom operating.Outreach for T&C, IPC decreases orstops.Assets secured in central locationPotential evacuation of international staffIncreasing migrationRetrenchmentProject and/or PSI/Z not permitted torun HIV prevention interventions inZimbabwe42 Zimbabwe HIV/AIDS Partnership Project & Behaviour Change Programme: A Joint USAID/DFID Assessment

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