Views
2 years ago

"Complex" Real Options - Title Page - MIT

"Complex" Real Options - Title Page - MIT

un parallel to general

un parallel to general purpose lanes, but are separated from the rest of the roadway insome manner, either physically with concrete barriers or plastic pylons, with a painteddesignation, increased spacing or some combination. This separation, along with propersignage, rules and enforcement, allows roadway traffic to be segregated between thegeneral purpose and managed lanes. The vehicles allowed onto the managed lane mayvary with the objectives set out for the managed lane, but typically are some combinationof the following:• High Occupancy Vehicles (HOV) – travel is restricted to vehicles with multipletravelers, where the minimum number of travelers vary by local choice. HOV 2+and HOV 3+, requiring at least two or three travelers, respectively, are typical.Historically, HOV lanes have accounted for by far the majority of managed lanemiles, though the managed lane types discussed next are slowly gaining inpopularity, enabled by newer ITS capabilities.• High Occupancy Toll (HOT) lanes – similar to HOV lanes, but allowsautomobiles that would not normally be eligible to use the lane access afterpaying a toll. For example, in an HOV 3+ lane, cars with one or two passengerscould not use the lane. With an HOT lane, depending on the strategy, the one andtwo passenger autos could have access to the lane by paying a toll. Theautomobiles eligible for access and the fee structure of the tolls vary by HOTlane, but the primary purpose is to keep the lane uncongested at all times.• Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) lane - travel is restricted to public transit vehicles,allowing less congested and lower travel times for high density public transit.BRT has gained in popularity because of the ability to provide a continuum ofservice, from upgraded local bus to rail like service, often at costs lower than lightrail (Hess et al. 2005). Often, BRT lanes are combined with HOV or HOT lanes,allowing both public transit and high occupancy vehicles simultaneous access tothe lane. This combination takes advantage of several synergies, such as; increasein effectiveness by providing travelers with additional travel mode choices, use ofroad pricing tolls to cross fund transit investments such as stations, parkingfacilities and rolling stock, and increase in political support due to affordable tollrates and viable travel alternatives (DeCorla-Souza and Barker 2005).• Truck Only Toll (TOT) lanes – travel is restricted to large commercial vehiclesafter paying a toll. The purpose is both to allow uncongested movement for highvalue commercial vehicles and to improve the safety of the general purpose lanesby segregating large truck and automobile traffic. While the amount of trucktraffic is usually smaller in total numbers of vehicles, the economic impact isoften greater for reduced truck travel times, as time savings for truck are assumedto be used for productive purposes while personal travel is split between work andleisure related activities (Haning and McFarland 1963, Kawamura 2000). Often,TOT and BRT lanes are combined to allow simultaneous truck and bus traffic tothe lane.Other managed lane concepts with different strategies for selecting which vehicles gainaccess have been proposed. Some of these other managed lane concepts include: lanes268

for Inherently Low Emitting Vehicles (ILEV), taxis, shuttles, emergency vehicles,motorcycles (Kuhn 2004).HOV lanes were some of the first types of managed lanes to be deployed. HOV laneswork by restricting access to multi-passenger vehicles. Originally vehicles eligible foraccess was limited to commuter vans and buses. Later, access was expanded to includemulti-passenger vehicle access. Due to low utilization of many HOV facilities, passengerlimits have been reduced on many HOV lanes to allow vehicles with 2 or more travelers(2+) to use the lane, down from 3 or 4 travelers per vehicle (3+ and 4+). However, insome cases, HOV lane restrictions have been tightened, from 2+ passengers to 3+passengers. This has occurred because of the high volume of 2+ passenger usage(Goodin 2005).In general, HOV lanes reduce travel time for a small set of travelers. As a total share oftravelers, multi-passenger vehicles are a percentage of mode share; a 16% decrease from1990 to 2000 (Poole and Orski 2003). The need to utilize unused capacity available onmany HOV facilities is a driving motivator behind the HOT, BRT and TOT managedlane concepts.Below is an examination of the different objectives and attributes of managed lanes.7.3.1 LANE OBJECTIVESThe HOV, HOT, BRT and TOT lane concepts all share some common goals such asreducing congestion, improving travel reliability and creating new sources of funding.Some considerations on making the operational strategy of the lane dynamic over timehave also been considered.7.3.1.1 Reducing CongestionCongestion is reduced for travelers using the managed lane (as they get access to acongestion free lane) and for users of the general purpose lanes.Improved travel conditions for managed lane users are achieved by separating themanaged lane user out from the remainder of traffic and proving a facility that is keptcongestion free.Congestion relief on general purpose lanes is typically obtained in two ways. First, somesubset of road users are removed from the GP lanes and re-routed onto the managedlanes. In all of the above cases except for TOT, these lanes typically emphasize thediverting of vehicles with higher number of passengers. This increases travelerthroughput on the overall system. In the HOT lane tolling concept, any additionalcapacity on the HOT lane not used by high occupancy vehicles is then sold to lowoccupancy vehicles, such as single passenger vehicles. The vehicles that pay the toll for269

  • Page 7 and 8:

    ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThis dissertation i

  • Page 9:

    students. I am sure I am missing pe

  • Page 12 and 13:

    6.7 Enterprise and Institutional Ch

  • Page 14 and 15:

    Table 8-8 Summary of existing mode

  • Page 16 and 17:

    Figure 3-17 System management loop

  • Page 18 and 19:

    Figure 5-13 Historical world annual

  • Page 20 and 21:

    Figure 7-19 Decision path for ITS m

  • Page 22 and 23:

    Figure 10-3 Summary of differences

  • Page 24 and 25:

    1. A large commercial aircraft maki

  • Page 26 and 27:

    made to the system are often not on

  • Page 28 and 29:

    From the MIT Engineering Systems Di

  • Page 30 and 31:

    enterprise, the enterprise itself m

  • Page 32 and 33:

    system capable of coping with uncer

  • Page 34 and 35:

    Ch. 2Ch. 3Ch. 4Ch. 7Ch. 5Ch. 8Ch. 6

  • Page 36 and 37:

    applicability of the framework. Fin

  • Page 38 and 39:

    Myers, S. (1977) Determinants of Ca

  • Page 40 and 41:

    FindingsFigure 2-1 Research process

  • Page 42 and 43:

    • Difficult to predict future beh

  • Page 44 and 45:

    As is apparent in the literature, t

  • Page 46:

    of these. Ideally, either with the

  • Page 49 and 50:

    do not appear to be mutually exclus

  • Page 51 and 52:

    The ability for a system to activel

  • Page 53 and 54:

    price (the option price) for the fl

  • Page 55 and 56:

    and the results can be easier to ex

  • Page 57 and 58:

    For some real options this appears

  • Page 59 and 60:

    there is value to waiting to see wh

  • Page 61 and 62:

    2.5 REAL OPTION PROCESSESExisting p

  • Page 63 and 64:

    option is then evaluated with a “

  • Page 65 and 66:

    • Option to engage in exploration

  • Page 67 and 68:

    elatively straight-forward and are

  • Page 69 and 70:

    OptionComplexityReal option in syst

  • Page 71 and 72:

    2.8 REFERENCESAllen, T. et. al. (20

  • Page 73 and 74:

    Hayes, R. and D. Garvin. (1982) Man

  • Page 75 and 76:

    Ross, A. (2006) Managing Unarticula

  • Page 77 and 78:

    3 LIFE-CYCLE FLEXIBILITY (LCF) FRAM

  • Page 79 and 80:

    3.1 OVERVIEW OF NEED FOR LIFE-CYCLE

  • Page 81 and 82:

    Figure 3-3 Condensed version of the

  • Page 83 and 84:

    level, the appropriate enterprise n

  • Page 85 and 86:

    3.1.2.1 Conceiving an OptionThe abi

  • Page 87 and 88:

    3.1.2.2 Design and Evaluation of Op

  • Page 89 and 90:

    option holder can not exercise the

  • Page 91 and 92:

    system’s underlying structure and

  • Page 93 and 94:

    3.2.2 DECISION TO USE LCF FRAMEWORK

  • Page 95 and 96:

    Figure 3-11 Integration of decision

  • Page 97 and 98:

    ounded rationality is not an issue,

  • Page 99 and 100:

    quantitative analysis chapters, Sec

  • Page 101 and 102:

    meantime, the land now would have d

  • Page 103 and 104:

    3.2.5 DESIGN STRATEGY FOR OPTION EX

  • Page 105 and 106:

    anticipated that external political

  • Page 107 and 108:

    Figure 3-16 illustrates how the str

  • Page 109 and 110:

    3.2.6 MANAGING THE SYSTEMManaging t

  • Page 111 and 112:

    System Management LoopFigure 3-17 S

  • Page 113 and 114:

    System Management LoopSystemImpleme

  • Page 115 and 116:

    Long-term Management Loop ofUnknown

  • Page 117 and 118:

    Long-term Management Loop of Unknow

  • Page 119 and 120:

    Enterprise Readiness is included as

  • Page 121 and 122:

    Figure 3-23 Condensed LCF Framework

  • Page 123 and 124:

    3.4 REFERENCESAllen, T. et. al. (20

  • Page 125 and 126:

    4 FLEXIBILITY IN BLENDED WING BODY

  • Page 127 and 128:

    4.1.1 THE EARLY YEARSAfter the firs

  • Page 129 and 130:

    Figure 4-2 Sikorsky S-42 Flying Boa

  • Page 131 and 132:

    The 1950’s saw aircraft shift fro

  • Page 133 and 134:

    to the government for doing so, wou

  • Page 135 and 136:

    Figure 4-7 European supersonic civi

  • Page 137 and 138:

    While airlines compete on a variety

  • Page 139 and 140:

    Figure 4-11 Comparison of several l

  • Page 141 and 142:

    Figure 4-12 Foreign and domestic so

  • Page 143 and 144:

    Figure 4-14 Drawings from Leonardo

  • Page 145 and 146:

    shifting their body weight) to the

  • Page 147 and 148:

    Figure 4-19 Semi-monocoque construc

  • Page 149 and 150:

    With a bi-wing (or tri-wing) constr

  • Page 151 and 152:

    Figure 4-24 Loads and lifts generat

  • Page 153 and 154:

    Figure 4-25 747-8, showing both loc

  • Page 155 and 156:

    Additional benefits of the BWB arch

  • Page 157 and 158:

    4.4.1 BWB OPTION DECISION PATHSFor

  • Page 159 and 160:

    lower costs, higher scales of econo

  • Page 161 and 162:

    Miller, B. (2005) A Generalized Rea

  • Page 163 and 164:

    5 VALUE OF FLEXIBILITY IN BLENDED W

  • Page 165 and 166:

    This chapter is composed of three m

  • Page 167 and 168:

    this research were deemed necessary

  • Page 169 and 170:

    For clarity of discussion, a high l

  • Page 171 and 172:

    model, a better understanding of co

  • Page 173 and 174:

    An overview of each of these subsys

  • Page 175 and 176:

    important and may make inroads into

  • Page 177 and 178:

    Figure 5-9 Airline finances and pro

  • Page 179 and 180:

    Figure 5-10 Airline profitability,

  • Page 181 and 182:

    Product design is based on a trade-

  • Page 183 and 184:

    The airframe manufacturer productio

  • Page 185 and 186:

    $70Inflation Adjusted Crude OilPric

  • Page 187 and 188:

    5.2.5 MODEL VALIDATIONThe system dy

  • Page 189 and 190:

    Forecast data (all planes)Model dat

  • Page 191 and 192:

    5.3.1 INHERENT BENEFITSBWB technica

  • Page 193 and 194:

    minor differences between aircraft

  • Page 195 and 196:

    The remainder of this section looks

  • Page 197 and 198:

    derivative depends on corporate str

  • Page 199 and 200:

    Table 5-1 Number of derivatives lik

  • Page 201 and 202:

    LowFuelCosts35%30%HighFuelCostsProb

  • Page 203 and 204:

    The results presented can be interp

  • Page 205 and 206:

    Compared to the Boeing 787, the dev

  • Page 207 and 208:

    than a European option, because of

  • Page 209 and 210:

    In the opposite case where the BWB

  • Page 211 and 212:

    Because of the consequences of exer

  • Page 213 and 214:

    35%30%Probability25%20%15%10%5%0%$-

  • Page 215 and 216:

    BWB does not seem to offer advantag

  • Page 217 and 218: type plane, relative to conventiona
  • Page 219 and 220: 5.4 REFERENCESAirbus. (2006) Annual
  • Page 221 and 222: 6 CHALLENGES OF FLEXIBILITY IN BLEN
  • Page 223 and 224: FindingsFigure 6-1 Case study analy
  • Page 225 and 226: Figure 6-2 Characteristics of case
  • Page 227 and 228: 6.1.3 INTERVIEWEE SELECTIONAs the i
  • Page 229 and 230: Table 6-2 ITS case study organizati
  • Page 231 and 232: about flexibility, i.e. is it a goo
  • Page 233 and 234: 2. If flexibility is used, can you
  • Page 235 and 236: case with BCA, which has embraced a
  • Page 237 and 238: primarily through military and NASA
  • Page 239 and 240: Figure 6-7 Delivery and market fore
  • Page 241 and 242: to meet rising demand, the overall
  • Page 243 and 244: Another option widespread in the ai
  • Page 245 and 246: design, evaluate or manage flexibil
  • Page 247 and 248: Interviewee views on flexibility ce
  • Page 249 and 250: and evaluations are based around th
  • Page 251 and 252: operating and maintenance costs by
  • Page 253 and 254: when fuel costs increased substanti
  • Page 255 and 256: options, such as cross-program deri
  • Page 257 and 258: 6.9 REFERENCESAirbus. (2007) Produc
  • Page 259 and 260: 7 FLEXIBILITY IN HOUSTON GROUNDTRAN
  • Page 261 and 262: Figure 7-2 Characteristics of case
  • Page 263 and 264: cases can be added to existing or n
  • Page 265 and 266: 7.2.2 STANDARD ITS TECHNOLOGIES AND
  • Page 267: • increased opportunities for pri
  • Page 271 and 272: Marker 2005). This type of cross fu
  • Page 273 and 274: Figure 7-4 Plastic pylon separated
  • Page 275 and 276: ecause the network of sensors can t
  • Page 277 and 278: operating conditions. Additional ro
  • Page 279 and 280: DSRC based system would require a l
  • Page 281 and 282: Houston has already deployed one of
  • Page 283 and 284: Figure 7-13 Transit center location
  • Page 285 and 286: Figure 7-15 Houston’s managed lan
  • Page 287 and 288: as HOT or TOT lanes. This can be es
  • Page 289 and 290: BuildtraditionalinfrastructureDelay
  • Page 291 and 292: HOT / BRTlaneNon-flexibleTOT / BRTl
  • Page 293 and 294: BuildtraditionalinfrastructureDelay
  • Page 295 and 296: or improved safety functions could
  • Page 297 and 298: Haning, C. and W. McFarland. (1963)
  • Page 299 and 300: 8 VALUE OF FLEXIBILITY IN HOUSTON G
  • Page 301 and 302: attempt was made to completely repr
  • Page 303 and 304: Figure 8-4 Quantitative analysis pr
  • Page 305 and 306: 8.2.1.1 Travel Demand ModelingThe t
  • Page 307 and 308: ange of traffic analysis studies to
  • Page 309 and 310: I-10 KatyFreewayI-610(innerloop)Bel
  • Page 311 and 312: 5 lanesFigure 8-10 Example of satel
  • Page 313 and 314: Beltway 8(secondary loop)I-610 (inn
  • Page 315 and 316: 8.2.2.5 Major Modeling AssumptionsD
  • Page 317 and 318: from a public agency that is intere
  • Page 319 and 320:

    funding improvements that would pre

  • Page 321 and 322:

    This is because of the low-cost of

  • Page 323 and 324:

    From the analysis above, with the d

  • Page 325 and 326:

    Figure 8-16 Addition of two general

  • Page 327 and 328:

    capabilities are typically deployab

  • Page 329 and 330:

    Table 8-5 Benefit-Cost Ratios for K

  • Page 331 and 332:

    35%30%25%Probability20%15%10%5%0%$(

  • Page 333 and 334:

    Figure 8-20 NPV density function, w

  • Page 335 and 336:

    Table 8-6 Summary of flexibility to

  • Page 337 and 338:

    Figure 8-23 Comparison of ITS/delay

  • Page 339 and 340:

    vehicles would continue to gain fre

  • Page 341 and 342:

    Figure 8-24 Value of time savings f

  • Page 343 and 344:

    This illustrates the importance of

  • Page 345 and 346:

    Table 8-10 Summary of ITS case stud

  • Page 347 and 348:

    Similar to the above discussion of

  • Page 349 and 350:

    9 CHALLENGES OF FLEXIBILITY IN HOUS

  • Page 351 and 352:

    new challenges as well as increase

  • Page 353 and 354:

    9.2 QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS PROCESSPre

  • Page 355 and 356:

    The qualitative research methodolog

  • Page 357 and 358:

    to be able to answer the research q

  • Page 359 and 360:

    Table 9-1 Functional activities per

  • Page 361 and 362:

    USDOT, Volpe Center, Officeof Syste

  • Page 363 and 364:

    3. If flexibility is used, can you

  • Page 365 and 366:

    • Increased data sources - The no

  • Page 367 and 368:

    importance that Harris County plays

  • Page 369 and 370:

    Figure 9-7 H-GAC area of responsibi

  • Page 371 and 372:

    Figure 9-9 State level stakeholders

  • Page 373 and 374:

    9.3.2.3 State Legislators and Gover

  • Page 375 and 376:

    met with business interests before

  • Page 377 and 378:

    The resulting plan forecasted more

  • Page 379 and 380:

    Discussions with interviewees with

  • Page 381 and 382:

    Currently, the cross section of the

  • Page 383 and 384:

    Also of interest is another part of

  • Page 385 and 386:

    y the Southern Pacific Railroad. In

  • Page 387 and 388:

    9.6 PROCESSES FOR IDENTIFYING, DESI

  • Page 389 and 390:

    The federal level interviewee conti

  • Page 391 and 392:

    may not be tied to a physical proje

  • Page 393 and 394:

    During the interview process, sever

  • Page 395 and 396:

    Figure 9-15 Katy Freeway configurat

  • Page 397 and 398:

    Monitor/ManageFigure 9-16 Summary o

  • Page 399 and 400:

    company on a schedule to complete t

  • Page 401 and 402:

    interviewees commented on the ongoi

  • Page 403 and 404:

    facilities has created a lack of wi

  • Page 405 and 406:

    eversible HOV lanes as a safety pre

  • Page 407 and 408:

    the real option and the decision to

  • Page 409 and 410:

    • Mechanism for creating pressure

  • Page 411 and 412:

    9.9.2.2 Uncertainty as a Result of

  • Page 413 and 414:

    option purchase price. This was bec

  • Page 415 and 416:

    9.10 REFERENCESABC7. (2004) Chicago

  • Page 417 and 418:

    Judd, D. and T. Swanstrom. (2004) C

  • Page 419 and 420:

    10 FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONSChapter

  • Page 421 and 422:

    concerns the use of real options

  • Page 423 and 424:

    Table 10-1 Summary of major researc

  • Page 425 and 426:

    to a system. Rather, these options

  • Page 427 and 428:

    future option exercise can prevent

  • Page 429 and 430:

    Q1-2. The case studies provided a d

  • Page 431 and 432:

    Currently, the Silver Line right-of

  • Page 433 and 434:

    technical system as well as the soc

  • Page 435 and 436:

    In the ITS case study, the transpor

  • Page 437 and 438:

    system that the technical system is

  • Page 439 and 440:

    option exercise unlikely (building

  • Page 441 and 442:

    some future date. This type of wast

  • Page 443 and 444:

    DesignPhaseEvaluationPhaseManagemen

  • Page 445 and 446:

    ITS capabilities used to create the

  • Page 447 and 448:

    technical and social components of

  • Page 449 and 450:

    incorporated directly into the mode

  • Page 451 and 452:

    As defined in Section 2.6, the diff

  • Page 453 and 454:

    In the BWB case study, an enterpris

  • Page 455 and 456:

    For “standard” real options it

  • Page 457 and 458:

    “Standard” real options are des

  • Page 459 and 460:

    From the research it was found that

  • Page 461 and 462:

    d. Evaluating the option with quant

  • Page 463 and 464:

    need for the system is, while simul

  • Page 465:

    10.7 REFERENCESClemons, E. and B. G

Real Options
Crowdsourcing Complex Tasks - MIT
Real Options Analysis - weADAPT
Real and complex analysis
Title page
Real and Complex Analysis (Rudin)
Real Options Analysis - Mediation
Title Page
Title Page
Home Page Options
Title Page: - Ninti One
Title Page - gt islig
Title Page - Cokesbury
U.S. and Canada Title Page
E. Asia Title Page
TITLE PAGE - EnerCom, Inc.
Title Page - Point Alliance
This is a title master page
Cover and Title Page
Title page for presentation - Profoss
Title Page - Growth Technology