Views
2 years ago

"Complex" Real Options - Title Page - MIT

"Complex" Real Options - Title Page - MIT

Metro DowntownRail

Metro DowntownRail LineFigure 8-7 Downtown Houston, showing rail line. Map from MapQuest.The Houston area transportation network used for the research is a detailed representationof all the roads in the Houston area, including freeways, arterials, frontage roads, localroads and toll roads. Figure 8-8 shows the network obtained from H-GAC and used inthe ITS case study for traffic demand modeling.308

I-10 KatyFreewayI-610(innerloop)Beltway 8(secondaryloop)Port ofHouston andShip CanalDowntownGulf ofMexicoFigure 8-8 Houston road network in Transcad. Callouts presented to orientate the readerwith the network.Network data obtained from H-GAC includes road information, such as directionality(one way or two way), number of lanes, and road type (freeway, frontage, local, toll).The network data available from H-GAC was for a proposed 2025 Houston road network.No network data was available for the current 2007 network. As using the 2007 networkas a baseline starting point was desired, this means that changes had to be made to the2025 network to re-create the 2007 network.The H-GAC 2025 network includes planned and approved changes, such as road capacityexpansions that do not currently exist. For example, on the I-10 West Katy Freeway,current plans are for a major expansion, with additional general purpose freeway,309

  • Page 7 and 8:

    ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThis dissertation i

  • Page 9:

    students. I am sure I am missing pe

  • Page 12 and 13:

    6.7 Enterprise and Institutional Ch

  • Page 14 and 15:

    Table 8-8 Summary of existing mode

  • Page 16 and 17:

    Figure 3-17 System management loop

  • Page 18 and 19:

    Figure 5-13 Historical world annual

  • Page 20 and 21:

    Figure 7-19 Decision path for ITS m

  • Page 22 and 23:

    Figure 10-3 Summary of differences

  • Page 24 and 25:

    1. A large commercial aircraft maki

  • Page 26 and 27:

    made to the system are often not on

  • Page 28 and 29:

    From the MIT Engineering Systems Di

  • Page 30 and 31:

    enterprise, the enterprise itself m

  • Page 32 and 33:

    system capable of coping with uncer

  • Page 34 and 35:

    Ch. 2Ch. 3Ch. 4Ch. 7Ch. 5Ch. 8Ch. 6

  • Page 36 and 37:

    applicability of the framework. Fin

  • Page 38 and 39:

    Myers, S. (1977) Determinants of Ca

  • Page 40 and 41:

    FindingsFigure 2-1 Research process

  • Page 42 and 43:

    • Difficult to predict future beh

  • Page 44 and 45:

    As is apparent in the literature, t

  • Page 46:

    of these. Ideally, either with the

  • Page 49 and 50:

    do not appear to be mutually exclus

  • Page 51 and 52:

    The ability for a system to activel

  • Page 53 and 54:

    price (the option price) for the fl

  • Page 55 and 56:

    and the results can be easier to ex

  • Page 57 and 58:

    For some real options this appears

  • Page 59 and 60:

    there is value to waiting to see wh

  • Page 61 and 62:

    2.5 REAL OPTION PROCESSESExisting p

  • Page 63 and 64:

    option is then evaluated with a “

  • Page 65 and 66:

    • Option to engage in exploration

  • Page 67 and 68:

    elatively straight-forward and are

  • Page 69 and 70:

    OptionComplexityReal option in syst

  • Page 71 and 72:

    2.8 REFERENCESAllen, T. et. al. (20

  • Page 73 and 74:

    Hayes, R. and D. Garvin. (1982) Man

  • Page 75 and 76:

    Ross, A. (2006) Managing Unarticula

  • Page 77 and 78:

    3 LIFE-CYCLE FLEXIBILITY (LCF) FRAM

  • Page 79 and 80:

    3.1 OVERVIEW OF NEED FOR LIFE-CYCLE

  • Page 81 and 82:

    Figure 3-3 Condensed version of the

  • Page 83 and 84:

    level, the appropriate enterprise n

  • Page 85 and 86:

    3.1.2.1 Conceiving an OptionThe abi

  • Page 87 and 88:

    3.1.2.2 Design and Evaluation of Op

  • Page 89 and 90:

    option holder can not exercise the

  • Page 91 and 92:

    system’s underlying structure and

  • Page 93 and 94:

    3.2.2 DECISION TO USE LCF FRAMEWORK

  • Page 95 and 96:

    Figure 3-11 Integration of decision

  • Page 97 and 98:

    ounded rationality is not an issue,

  • Page 99 and 100:

    quantitative analysis chapters, Sec

  • Page 101 and 102:

    meantime, the land now would have d

  • Page 103 and 104:

    3.2.5 DESIGN STRATEGY FOR OPTION EX

  • Page 105 and 106:

    anticipated that external political

  • Page 107 and 108:

    Figure 3-16 illustrates how the str

  • Page 109 and 110:

    3.2.6 MANAGING THE SYSTEMManaging t

  • Page 111 and 112:

    System Management LoopFigure 3-17 S

  • Page 113 and 114:

    System Management LoopSystemImpleme

  • Page 115 and 116:

    Long-term Management Loop ofUnknown

  • Page 117 and 118:

    Long-term Management Loop of Unknow

  • Page 119 and 120:

    Enterprise Readiness is included as

  • Page 121 and 122:

    Figure 3-23 Condensed LCF Framework

  • Page 123 and 124:

    3.4 REFERENCESAllen, T. et. al. (20

  • Page 125 and 126:

    4 FLEXIBILITY IN BLENDED WING BODY

  • Page 127 and 128:

    4.1.1 THE EARLY YEARSAfter the firs

  • Page 129 and 130:

    Figure 4-2 Sikorsky S-42 Flying Boa

  • Page 131 and 132:

    The 1950’s saw aircraft shift fro

  • Page 133 and 134:

    to the government for doing so, wou

  • Page 135 and 136:

    Figure 4-7 European supersonic civi

  • Page 137 and 138:

    While airlines compete on a variety

  • Page 139 and 140:

    Figure 4-11 Comparison of several l

  • Page 141 and 142:

    Figure 4-12 Foreign and domestic so

  • Page 143 and 144:

    Figure 4-14 Drawings from Leonardo

  • Page 145 and 146:

    shifting their body weight) to the

  • Page 147 and 148:

    Figure 4-19 Semi-monocoque construc

  • Page 149 and 150:

    With a bi-wing (or tri-wing) constr

  • Page 151 and 152:

    Figure 4-24 Loads and lifts generat

  • Page 153 and 154:

    Figure 4-25 747-8, showing both loc

  • Page 155 and 156:

    Additional benefits of the BWB arch

  • Page 157 and 158:

    4.4.1 BWB OPTION DECISION PATHSFor

  • Page 159 and 160:

    lower costs, higher scales of econo

  • Page 161 and 162:

    Miller, B. (2005) A Generalized Rea

  • Page 163 and 164:

    5 VALUE OF FLEXIBILITY IN BLENDED W

  • Page 165 and 166:

    This chapter is composed of three m

  • Page 167 and 168:

    this research were deemed necessary

  • Page 169 and 170:

    For clarity of discussion, a high l

  • Page 171 and 172:

    model, a better understanding of co

  • Page 173 and 174:

    An overview of each of these subsys

  • Page 175 and 176:

    important and may make inroads into

  • Page 177 and 178:

    Figure 5-9 Airline finances and pro

  • Page 179 and 180:

    Figure 5-10 Airline profitability,

  • Page 181 and 182:

    Product design is based on a trade-

  • Page 183 and 184:

    The airframe manufacturer productio

  • Page 185 and 186:

    $70Inflation Adjusted Crude OilPric

  • Page 187 and 188:

    5.2.5 MODEL VALIDATIONThe system dy

  • Page 189 and 190:

    Forecast data (all planes)Model dat

  • Page 191 and 192:

    5.3.1 INHERENT BENEFITSBWB technica

  • Page 193 and 194:

    minor differences between aircraft

  • Page 195 and 196:

    The remainder of this section looks

  • Page 197 and 198:

    derivative depends on corporate str

  • Page 199 and 200:

    Table 5-1 Number of derivatives lik

  • Page 201 and 202:

    LowFuelCosts35%30%HighFuelCostsProb

  • Page 203 and 204:

    The results presented can be interp

  • Page 205 and 206:

    Compared to the Boeing 787, the dev

  • Page 207 and 208:

    than a European option, because of

  • Page 209 and 210:

    In the opposite case where the BWB

  • Page 211 and 212:

    Because of the consequences of exer

  • Page 213 and 214:

    35%30%Probability25%20%15%10%5%0%$-

  • Page 215 and 216:

    BWB does not seem to offer advantag

  • Page 217 and 218:

    type plane, relative to conventiona

  • Page 219 and 220:

    5.4 REFERENCESAirbus. (2006) Annual

  • Page 221 and 222:

    6 CHALLENGES OF FLEXIBILITY IN BLEN

  • Page 223 and 224:

    FindingsFigure 6-1 Case study analy

  • Page 225 and 226:

    Figure 6-2 Characteristics of case

  • Page 227 and 228:

    6.1.3 INTERVIEWEE SELECTIONAs the i

  • Page 229 and 230:

    Table 6-2 ITS case study organizati

  • Page 231 and 232:

    about flexibility, i.e. is it a goo

  • Page 233 and 234:

    2. If flexibility is used, can you

  • Page 235 and 236:

    case with BCA, which has embraced a

  • Page 237 and 238:

    primarily through military and NASA

  • Page 239 and 240:

    Figure 6-7 Delivery and market fore

  • Page 241 and 242:

    to meet rising demand, the overall

  • Page 243 and 244:

    Another option widespread in the ai

  • Page 245 and 246:

    design, evaluate or manage flexibil

  • Page 247 and 248:

    Interviewee views on flexibility ce

  • Page 249 and 250:

    and evaluations are based around th

  • Page 251 and 252:

    operating and maintenance costs by

  • Page 253 and 254:

    when fuel costs increased substanti

  • Page 255 and 256:

    options, such as cross-program deri

  • Page 257 and 258: 6.9 REFERENCESAirbus. (2007) Produc
  • Page 259 and 260: 7 FLEXIBILITY IN HOUSTON GROUNDTRAN
  • Page 261 and 262: Figure 7-2 Characteristics of case
  • Page 263 and 264: cases can be added to existing or n
  • Page 265 and 266: 7.2.2 STANDARD ITS TECHNOLOGIES AND
  • Page 267 and 268: • increased opportunities for pri
  • Page 269 and 270: for Inherently Low Emitting Vehicle
  • Page 271 and 272: Marker 2005). This type of cross fu
  • Page 273 and 274: Figure 7-4 Plastic pylon separated
  • Page 275 and 276: ecause the network of sensors can t
  • Page 277 and 278: operating conditions. Additional ro
  • Page 279 and 280: DSRC based system would require a l
  • Page 281 and 282: Houston has already deployed one of
  • Page 283 and 284: Figure 7-13 Transit center location
  • Page 285 and 286: Figure 7-15 Houston’s managed lan
  • Page 287 and 288: as HOT or TOT lanes. This can be es
  • Page 289 and 290: BuildtraditionalinfrastructureDelay
  • Page 291 and 292: HOT / BRTlaneNon-flexibleTOT / BRTl
  • Page 293 and 294: BuildtraditionalinfrastructureDelay
  • Page 295 and 296: or improved safety functions could
  • Page 297 and 298: Haning, C. and W. McFarland. (1963)
  • Page 299 and 300: 8 VALUE OF FLEXIBILITY IN HOUSTON G
  • Page 301 and 302: attempt was made to completely repr
  • Page 303 and 304: Figure 8-4 Quantitative analysis pr
  • Page 305 and 306: 8.2.1.1 Travel Demand ModelingThe t
  • Page 307: ange of traffic analysis studies to
  • Page 311 and 312: 5 lanesFigure 8-10 Example of satel
  • Page 313 and 314: Beltway 8(secondary loop)I-610 (inn
  • Page 315 and 316: 8.2.2.5 Major Modeling AssumptionsD
  • Page 317 and 318: from a public agency that is intere
  • Page 319 and 320: funding improvements that would pre
  • Page 321 and 322: This is because of the low-cost of
  • Page 323 and 324: From the analysis above, with the d
  • Page 325 and 326: Figure 8-16 Addition of two general
  • Page 327 and 328: capabilities are typically deployab
  • Page 329 and 330: Table 8-5 Benefit-Cost Ratios for K
  • Page 331 and 332: 35%30%25%Probability20%15%10%5%0%$(
  • Page 333 and 334: Figure 8-20 NPV density function, w
  • Page 335 and 336: Table 8-6 Summary of flexibility to
  • Page 337 and 338: Figure 8-23 Comparison of ITS/delay
  • Page 339 and 340: vehicles would continue to gain fre
  • Page 341 and 342: Figure 8-24 Value of time savings f
  • Page 343 and 344: This illustrates the importance of
  • Page 345 and 346: Table 8-10 Summary of ITS case stud
  • Page 347 and 348: Similar to the above discussion of
  • Page 349 and 350: 9 CHALLENGES OF FLEXIBILITY IN HOUS
  • Page 351 and 352: new challenges as well as increase
  • Page 353 and 354: 9.2 QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS PROCESSPre
  • Page 355 and 356: The qualitative research methodolog
  • Page 357 and 358: to be able to answer the research q
  • Page 359 and 360:

    Table 9-1 Functional activities per

  • Page 361 and 362:

    USDOT, Volpe Center, Officeof Syste

  • Page 363 and 364:

    3. If flexibility is used, can you

  • Page 365 and 366:

    • Increased data sources - The no

  • Page 367 and 368:

    importance that Harris County plays

  • Page 369 and 370:

    Figure 9-7 H-GAC area of responsibi

  • Page 371 and 372:

    Figure 9-9 State level stakeholders

  • Page 373 and 374:

    9.3.2.3 State Legislators and Gover

  • Page 375 and 376:

    met with business interests before

  • Page 377 and 378:

    The resulting plan forecasted more

  • Page 379 and 380:

    Discussions with interviewees with

  • Page 381 and 382:

    Currently, the cross section of the

  • Page 383 and 384:

    Also of interest is another part of

  • Page 385 and 386:

    y the Southern Pacific Railroad. In

  • Page 387 and 388:

    9.6 PROCESSES FOR IDENTIFYING, DESI

  • Page 389 and 390:

    The federal level interviewee conti

  • Page 391 and 392:

    may not be tied to a physical proje

  • Page 393 and 394:

    During the interview process, sever

  • Page 395 and 396:

    Figure 9-15 Katy Freeway configurat

  • Page 397 and 398:

    Monitor/ManageFigure 9-16 Summary o

  • Page 399 and 400:

    company on a schedule to complete t

  • Page 401 and 402:

    interviewees commented on the ongoi

  • Page 403 and 404:

    facilities has created a lack of wi

  • Page 405 and 406:

    eversible HOV lanes as a safety pre

  • Page 407 and 408:

    the real option and the decision to

  • Page 409 and 410:

    • Mechanism for creating pressure

  • Page 411 and 412:

    9.9.2.2 Uncertainty as a Result of

  • Page 413 and 414:

    option purchase price. This was bec

  • Page 415 and 416:

    9.10 REFERENCESABC7. (2004) Chicago

  • Page 417 and 418:

    Judd, D. and T. Swanstrom. (2004) C

  • Page 419 and 420:

    10 FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONSChapter

  • Page 421 and 422:

    concerns the use of real options

  • Page 423 and 424:

    Table 10-1 Summary of major researc

  • Page 425 and 426:

    to a system. Rather, these options

  • Page 427 and 428:

    future option exercise can prevent

  • Page 429 and 430:

    Q1-2. The case studies provided a d

  • Page 431 and 432:

    Currently, the Silver Line right-of

  • Page 433 and 434:

    technical system as well as the soc

  • Page 435 and 436:

    In the ITS case study, the transpor

  • Page 437 and 438:

    system that the technical system is

  • Page 439 and 440:

    option exercise unlikely (building

  • Page 441 and 442:

    some future date. This type of wast

  • Page 443 and 444:

    DesignPhaseEvaluationPhaseManagemen

  • Page 445 and 446:

    ITS capabilities used to create the

  • Page 447 and 448:

    technical and social components of

  • Page 449 and 450:

    incorporated directly into the mode

  • Page 451 and 452:

    As defined in Section 2.6, the diff

  • Page 453 and 454:

    In the BWB case study, an enterpris

  • Page 455 and 456:

    For “standard” real options it

  • Page 457 and 458:

    “Standard” real options are des

  • Page 459 and 460:

    From the research it was found that

  • Page 461 and 462:

    d. Evaluating the option with quant

  • Page 463 and 464:

    need for the system is, while simul

  • Page 465:

    10.7 REFERENCESClemons, E. and B. G

Real Options
Crowdsourcing Complex Tasks - MIT
Real and Complex Analysis (Rudin)
Real and complex analysis
Real Options Analysis - Mediation
Title Page
Title Page
Real Options Analysis - weADAPT
Title page
Home Page Options
title page - Haas International
E. Asia Title Page
Europe Title Page
title page - sledRacer
Title page - Waterfront Trail
Title Page - Growth Technology
Title Page - Communities in share.iit
Cover and Title Page
Title page for presentation - Profoss
This is a title master page
Title Page - Point Alliance
E. Asia Title Page
TITLE PAGE - EnerCom, Inc.