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QUARTERLY REPORT ON INFLATION MAY 2006

QUARTERLY REPORT ON INFLATION MAY 2006

MAGYAR NEMZETI

MAGYAR NEMZETI BANKHowever, the above factors are offset by uncertainty factorspointing to higher inflation, such as a higher level ofregulated prices and world market oil prices compared tothe assumptions in the main scenario.The possibility that fiscal policy may restrain aggregatedemand more than assumed is the main downside factorin the dispersion of uncertainty around our economicactivity projection. In addition to this, a faster increase inregulated prices compared to the main scenario mayalso represent a downside risk, as this would result inlower household real income and consumption demand.The rise in minimum wages in 2006 may also entail moresubdued growth, if this leads to lower employment dueto an increase in labour costs. Downside risk is also perceivedin the growth effect of world market prices of oil.We believe that several factors – e.g. an adjustment ofglobal imbalances and restrained European domesticdemand – may mean less favourable developments inexternal economic activity than outlined above. Asopposed to the above factors, the reduction of the socialsecurity contribution, through an upswing in employment,may have a favourable impact on growthprospects.44QUARTERLY REPORT ON INFLATIONMAY 2006

4. Background informationand equilibrium

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