US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators - Dr. Ed Yardeni's ...
US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators - Dr. Ed Yardeni's ...
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<strong>US</strong> <strong>Economic</strong> <strong>Briefing</strong>:<strong>High</strong> <strong>Frequency</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.July 31, 2014<strong>Dr</strong>. <strong>Ed</strong>ward Yardeni516-972-7683eyardeni@yardeni.comMali Quintana480-664-1333aquintana@yardeni.comPlease visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.comthinking outside the box
Table Of ContentsTable Of ContentsKey Global <strong>Indicators</strong> 1Global Boom Bust Barometer 2<strong>US</strong> Leading <strong>Indicators</strong> 3ECRI 4Citigroup <strong>Economic</strong> Surprise Index 5<strong>US</strong> Unemployment Claims 6-7<strong>US</strong> Petroleum Usage 8<strong>US</strong> Electricity Output 9-10<strong>US</strong> Railcar Loadings 11-14<strong>US</strong> Federal Tax Receipts & Deposits 15<strong>US</strong> Business Credit 16MBA Mortgage Applications Survey 17<strong>US</strong> Commercial Paper 18<strong>US</strong> Liquid Assets 19-20<strong>US</strong> Profits Cycle 21-23Confidence, Boom Bust Barometer, S&P 500 24Gasoline Prices & Rig Count 25July 31, 2014 / <strong>US</strong> <strong>Economic</strong> <strong>Briefing</strong>: <strong>High</strong> <strong>Frequency</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Key Global <strong>Indicators</strong>650600Figure 1.IND<strong>US</strong>TRIAL COMMODITY PRICES & WORLD EXPORTS180170160550500450CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index*(1967=100)Volume of World Exports(2005=100, sa)7/31May1501401301204001101003509030080250200yardeni.com95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16706050* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Netherlands Bureau for <strong>Economic</strong> Policy (CPB).650Figure 2.IND<strong>US</strong>TRIAL COMMODITY PRICES & WORLD EXPORTS21600May19550CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index*(1967=100)7/3117500Value of World Exports (IMF)(trillion dollars, annualized, nsa)154501340011350930072505200yardeni.com95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 163* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Source: Commodity Research Bureau and IMF.Page 1 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>US</strong> <strong>Economic</strong> <strong>Briefing</strong>: <strong>High</strong> <strong>Frequency</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
140130Figure 3.YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER*Global Boom Bust Barometer1401301201201101007/31110100909080807070606050504030yardeni.com2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20154030* Average of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 10.Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.160Figure 4.YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER COMPONENTS160140120CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*Brent Crude Oil(dollars per barrel)1401201007/3110080806060404020yardeni.com2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201520* Times 2 and divided by 10. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.Page 2 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>US</strong> <strong>Economic</strong> <strong>Briefing</strong>: <strong>High</strong> <strong>Frequency</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
150Figure 5.LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS<strong>US</strong> Leading <strong>Indicators</strong>1501307/18130110ECRI Weekly Leading Index(1992=100, 4-wa)110Jun909070Conference Board LEI(2004=100)7050503073 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of <strong>Economic</strong> Research.Source: Conference Board and <strong>Economic</strong> Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).yardeni.com30150140130Figure 6.LEADING & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS7/18150140130120ECRI Weekly Leading Index(1992=100, 4-wa)120110Jun110100100909080807060Conference Board CEI(2004=100)7060504073 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of <strong>Economic</strong> Research.Source: Conference Board and <strong>Economic</strong> Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).yardeni.com5040Page 3 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>US</strong> <strong>Economic</strong> <strong>Briefing</strong>: <strong>High</strong> <strong>Frequency</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
-2000Figure 7.ECRI-WLI & HIGH YIELD CORPORATE SPREAD(basis points, inverted scale)ECRI1551502004006008001000120014001600180020002200Spread*ECRI Weekly Leading Index(1992=100)1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20157/307/18yardeni.com145140135130125120115110105Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of <strong>Economic</strong> Research.* <strong>High</strong> yield corporate less 10-year Treasury yield.Source: Merrill Lynch, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and <strong>Economic</strong> Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).22002000180016001400120010008006004002000Figure 8.ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX & S&P 500S&P 500ECRI WeeklyLeading Index(1992=100)73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of <strong>Economic</strong> Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and <strong>Economic</strong> Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).7/31yardeni.com15014514013513012512011511010510095908580757065605550Page 4 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>US</strong> <strong>Economic</strong> <strong>Briefing</strong>: <strong>High</strong> <strong>Frequency</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
12010080604020Figure 9.Citigroup <strong>Economic</strong> Surprise IndexCITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX(percent)120100806040200-20-40-607/310-20-40-60-80-100-120-140-160Based on <strong>US</strong> Dollaryardeni.com2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Source: Citigroup.-80-100-120-140-160100Figure 10.CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX(percent)100505007/310-50-50-100Based on G10 Currencies-100-150yardeni.com2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Source: Citigroup.-150Page 5 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>US</strong> <strong>Economic</strong> <strong>Briefing</strong>: <strong>High</strong> <strong>Frequency</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
800750700650600550500450400350Figure 11.INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS(thousands, sa)<strong>US</strong> Unemployment Claims80075070065060055050045040035030025020015073 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of <strong>Economic</strong> Research.Source: <strong>US</strong> Department of Labor.7/26yardeni.com300250200150800750700650600550500450400350300250200150Figure 12.INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS(thousands, sa, four-week moving average)73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of <strong>Economic</strong> Research.Source: <strong>US</strong> Department of Labor.7/26yardeni.com800750700650600550500450400350300250200150Page 6 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>US</strong> <strong>Economic</strong> <strong>Briefing</strong>: <strong>High</strong> <strong>Frequency</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
1110Figure 13.CONTINUING UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS(millions, sa)<strong>US</strong> Unemployment Claims111099876ContinuingContinuing +Extended*87655443217/5 7/19yardeni.com73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17321* Extended claims are nsa.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of <strong>Economic</strong> Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.17161514131211109876543210Figure 14.CONTINUING UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS(millions, sa, four-week moving average)Number ofUnemployedContinuingContinuing +Extended73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17Jun7/5 7/19yardeni.com17161514131211109876543210* Extended claims are nsa.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of <strong>Economic</strong> Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.Page 7 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>US</strong> <strong>Economic</strong> <strong>Briefing</strong>: <strong>High</strong> <strong>Frequency</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
22Figure 15.<strong>US</strong> PETROLEUM PRODUCTS SUPPLIED (<strong>US</strong>AGE)(million barrels per day, 52-week ma, sa)<strong>US</strong> Petroleum Usage22212120Total (19.1)20197/25191818171716yardeni.com91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1616* Includes motor gasoline, distillate fuel oils, and all other products.Source: <strong>US</strong> Department of Energy.3.2Figure 16.<strong>US</strong> MOTOR GASOLINE SUPPLIED vs. MILES TRAVELED9.53.02.8May7/259.08.52.62.42.2Gasoline Supplied(million barrels per day, 52-wa)Vehicle Miles Traveled(trillion miles, 12-month sum)8.07.52.091 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15Source: <strong>US</strong> Department of Energy.yardeni.com7.0Page 8 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>US</strong> <strong>Economic</strong> <strong>Briefing</strong>: <strong>High</strong> <strong>Frequency</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
<strong>US</strong> Electricity Output8000078000Figure 17.<strong>US</strong> ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT*(GW hours, 52-week moving average)7/2680000780007600076000740007400072000720007000070000680006800066000660006400064000620006200060000yardeni.com95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1560000* Excluding Hawaii and Alaska.Source: <strong>Ed</strong>ison Electric Institute.86Figure 18.<strong>US</strong> ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. REAL GDP(yearly percent change)864420Q27/2620-2-2-4-6Electric Utility Output(52-week moving average)Real GDPyardeni.com95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15-4-6* Excluding Hawaii and Alaska.Source: <strong>Ed</strong>ison Electric Institute.Page 9 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>US</strong> <strong>Economic</strong> <strong>Briefing</strong>: <strong>High</strong> <strong>Frequency</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
<strong>US</strong> Electricity Output8000078000Figure 19.<strong>US</strong> ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. PRODUCTION(52-week moving average)Jun 7/2610510076000957400072000907000085680006600064000Electricity Output(GW hours)Total Manufacturing Production8075620007060000yardeni.com95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1565* Excluding Hawaii and Alaska.Source: <strong>Ed</strong>ison Electric Institute.8000078000Figure 20.<strong>US</strong> ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. GDP(52-week moving average)7/26175001650076000Q21550074000720001450070000135006800066000640006200060000Electricity Output(GW hours)Real GDP(billion dollars, saar)yardeni.com95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 151250011500105009500* Excluding Hawaii and Alaska.Source: <strong>Ed</strong>ison Electric Institute.Page 10 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>US</strong> <strong>Economic</strong> <strong>Briefing</strong>: <strong>High</strong> <strong>Frequency</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
<strong>US</strong> Railcar Loadings600Figure 21.RAILCAR LOADINGS*(thousand units, 26-wa)Total6005507/26550500500450450400400350yardeni.com2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015350* Car loads plus intermodal.Source: Atlantic Systems and Standard & Poor’s.400Figure 22.RAILCAR LOADINGS(thousand units, 26-wa)400350Car Loads3503007/263002507/26250200Intermodal2001502000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Source: Atlantic Systems.yardeni.com150Page 11 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>US</strong> <strong>Economic</strong> <strong>Briefing</strong>: <strong>High</strong> <strong>Frequency</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
30Figure 23.RAILCAR LOADINGS: MOTOR VEHICLES<strong>US</strong> Railcar Loadings30252520207/261515105yardeni.comMotor VehiclesLoadings(thousand units, 26-wa)Sales(million units, saar)90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15Source: Atlantic Systems and Haver Analytics.1057Figure 24.RAILCAR LOADINGS: LUMBER & WOOD PRODUCTS260062300200051700140043Lumber & Wood ProductsLoadings(thousand units, 26-wa, sa)7/261100800Housing Starts(thousand units, saar)5002yardeni.com90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15Source: Atlantic Systems and <strong>US</strong> Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.200Page 12 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>US</strong> <strong>Economic</strong> <strong>Briefing</strong>: <strong>High</strong> <strong>Frequency</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
<strong>US</strong> Railcar Loadings160150140Figure 25.RAILCAR LOADINGS(thousand units, 26-wa)CoalNonmetallic Minerals12111091308712061107/267/265410090 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 1890 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 183467/2612441142Chemicals & PetroleumProductsPulp & PaperProducts1040383698347327/2663090 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 1890 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 1852018Waste & ScrapMaterials1116Metals & Products10149121087/267/26876490 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18yardeni.com90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 186Source: Atlantic Systems and American Trucking Association.Page 13 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>US</strong> <strong>Economic</strong> <strong>Briefing</strong>: <strong>High</strong> <strong>Frequency</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
<strong>US</strong> Railcar LoadingsFigure 26.230ATA TRUCK TONNAGE INDEX & INTERMODAL CONTAINERS7/26135210Jun130125190120170115150130110Trucking Index(2000=100, sa)Railcar Loadings:Intermodal Containers(thousand units, 26-wa)2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Source: American Trucking Association and Atlantic Systems.yardeni.com110105100959080Figure 27.RAILCAR LOADINGS: INTERMODAL TRAILERS(thousand units, 26-wa)90807070606050504040307/263020yardeni.com90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15Source: Atlantic Systems and American Trucking Association.20Page 14 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>US</strong> <strong>Economic</strong> <strong>Briefing</strong>: <strong>High</strong> <strong>Frequency</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
2200<strong>US</strong> Federal Tax Receipts & DepositsFigure 28.2400FEDERAL TAX RECEIPTS & DEPOSITS: INDIVIDUAL & PAYROLLJun2300(billion dollars)240023002200210020007/30210020001900190018001800170017001600150014001300Deposits: Withheld Income & Employment Taxes(260-day sum)Receipts: Individual Income Taxes PlusSocial Insurance and Retirement Receipts*(12-month sum)yardeni.com2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20151600150014001300* Employment and General Retirement, Unemployment Insurance, and Other Retirement.Source: <strong>US</strong> Treasury and Haver Analytics.450400Figure 29.FEDERAL TAX RECEIPTS & DEPOSITS: CORPORATE INCOME TAXES(billion dollars)4504003503503007/30Jun300250250200150Deposits(260-day sum)Receipts(12-month sum)2001501002004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Source <strong>US</strong> Treasury and Haver Analytics.yardeni.com100Page 15 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>US</strong> <strong>Economic</strong> <strong>Briefing</strong>: <strong>High</strong> <strong>Frequency</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
22002000Figure 30.<strong>US</strong> Business CreditSHORT-TERM B<strong>US</strong>INESS CREDIT & INVENTORIES(billion dollars)7/1622002000180016001400C&I Loans PlusNonfinancialCommercial Paper(nsa)Manufacturing & TradeInventories(sa)May180016001400120012001000100080080060060040082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of <strong>Economic</strong> Research.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and <strong>US</strong> Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.yardeni.com40017751575Figure 31.COMMERCIAL & IND<strong>US</strong>TRIAL LOANS(billion dollars, nsa)7/1617751575137513751175117597597577577557542038034030026022018014010060NONFINANCIAL COMMERCIAL PAPER(billion dollars, nsa)90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.7/30yardeni.com57542038034030026022018014010060Page 16 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>US</strong> <strong>Economic</strong> <strong>Briefing</strong>: <strong>High</strong> <strong>Frequency</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
550525500475450425400375350325300275250225200175150125100755025Figure 32.MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS: NEW PURCHASE INDEX & SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15Source: Mortgage Bankers of America.MBA Mortgage Applications SurveyMortgage Applications:New Purchase Index(4-week average, sa)New Plus ExistingSingle-Family Home Sales(million units, saar)7/25yardeni.com87654312000Figure 33.MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS: REFINANCING INDEX(4-week average, sa)12000100001000080008000600060004000400020007/252000090 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16Source: Mortgage Bankers Association.yardeni.com0Page 17 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>US</strong> <strong>Economic</strong> <strong>Briefing</strong>: <strong>High</strong> <strong>Frequency</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
<strong>US</strong> Commercial Paper2400Figure 34.COMMERCIAL PAPER OUTSTANDING(billion dollars, sa)70022006002000Total500180040016001400Domestic FinancialForeign FinancialForeign Bank (nsa)7/30300120020010007/3010080002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1502 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 150125030011501050Asset BackedTotal Financial7/30275250950850Nonfinancial2257502006501755507/301504503501252507/3010015002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15yardeni.com02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1575Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.Page 18 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>US</strong> <strong>Economic</strong> <strong>Briefing</strong>: <strong>High</strong> <strong>Frequency</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
<strong>US</strong> Liquid Assets11000105001000095009000850080007500Figure 35.LIQUID ASSETS*(billion dollars, sa, ratio scale)7/21110001050010000950090008500800075007000700065006500600060005500550050005000450045004000400035003500300030002500yardeni.com90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 162500* Total savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits, and total money market mutual funds held by individuals &institutions.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.150140130120Figure 36.LIQUID ASSETS*150140130120110100908070As a percent of_____________Wilshire 5000S&P 500 Market Cap1101009080706050403020Jun7/25yardeni.com90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 166050403020* Total savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits, and total money market mutual funds held by individuals &institutions.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Standard & Poor’s Corporation, and Wall Street Journal.Page 19 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>US</strong> <strong>Economic</strong> <strong>Briefing</strong>: <strong>High</strong> <strong>Frequency</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
77007300690065006100570053004900450041003700330029002500210017001300900500100Figure 37.INTEREST-BEARING DEPOSITS(billion dollars, sa)<strong>US</strong> Liquid AssetsSavings Deposits (includingMoney Market Deposit Accounts)*Total Small TimeDeposits**84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 167/217/21yardeni.com77007300690065006100570053004900450041003700330029002500210017001300900500100* Included in M2.** Included in M2. IRA and Keogh account balances are excluded.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.2.82.6Figure 38.MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS(trillion dollars, sa)2.82.62.42.42.22.01.8Held By: _______Retail*Institutions**7/212.22.01.81.61.61.41.41.21.21.01.0.8.8.6.42000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20167/21yardeni.com.6.4* Included in M2. IRA and Keogh account balances are excluded.** Included in MZM, but not in M1 or M2.Source: Federal Reserve Board.Page 20 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>US</strong> <strong>Economic</strong> <strong>Briefing</strong>: <strong>High</strong> <strong>Frequency</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
<strong>US</strong> Profits Cycle130120Figure 39.S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORSForward Earnings*7/24130120110110100<strong>US</strong> Coincident<strong>Economic</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong>(2004=100)Jun100908090706080504070306050yardeni.com80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1820100* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Conference Board.12Figure 40.S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS(yearly percent change)608404207/2400-4Forward Earnings*-20-8<strong>US</strong> Coincident <strong>Economic</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong>-40-12yardeni.com80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18-60* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Conference Board.Page 21 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>US</strong> <strong>Economic</strong> <strong>Briefing</strong>: <strong>High</strong> <strong>Frequency</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
<strong>US</strong> Profits Cycle6.7Figure 41.S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & FACTORY ORDERS7/241356.2Forward Earnings*(weekly)May1155.75.2Total New Factory Orders(trillion dollars, saar)954.7754.2553.73.2yardeni.com95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1835* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and <strong>US</strong> Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.454035302520151050-5-10-15-20-25-30-35-40Figure 42.S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & NEW FACTORY ORDERS(yearly percent change)yardeni.comS&P 500 Forward Earnings*New Factory Orders(3-ma)95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15May7/242520151050-5-10-15-20-25-30-35* 52-week forward consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted averageof current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.Page 22 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>US</strong> <strong>Economic</strong> <strong>Briefing</strong>: <strong>High</strong> <strong>Frequency</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
2015Figure 43.<strong>US</strong> Profits CycleS&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & IND<strong>US</strong>TRIAL PRODUCTION(yearly percent change)5040103050Jun7/2420100-5-10Forward Earnings*<strong>US</strong> Industrial Production-10-20-15-20yardeni.com80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18-30-40* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.40Figure 44.S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & INDEX OF AGGREGATE WEEKLY HOURS(yearly percent change)102057/2400-20S&P 500 Forward Earnings*-5Aggregate Hours-40yardeni.com80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16-10* 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.Page 23 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>US</strong> <strong>Economic</strong> <strong>Briefing</strong>: <strong>High</strong> <strong>Frequency</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
706050403020Confidence, Boom Bust Barometer, S&P 500Figure 45.BOOM B<strong>US</strong>T BAROMETER & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX7/26<strong>US</strong> Boom Bust Barometer*Consumer Comfort Index7/26yardeni.com2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015190180170160150140130120110100908070605040* CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor.200180Figure 46.YRI FUNDAMENTAL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR & S&P 500 INDEX7/31210020001900180017001601600150014014001300120012010080S&P 500 IndexYRI Fundamental StockMarket Indicator*yardeni.com2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201511001000900800700600* Average of Consumer Comfort Index and Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims,four-week moving average.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor, and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Page 24 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>US</strong> <strong>Economic</strong> <strong>Briefing</strong>: <strong>High</strong> <strong>Frequency</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
4.24.03.83.63.43.23.02.82.62.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.0.8.6Figure 47.GASOLINE PRICES(dollars per gallon)Gasoline Prices & Rig Count2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20157/237/31National averagepump price (weekly)Futures price (daily)*yardeni.com4.24.03.83.63.43.23.02.82.62.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.0.8.6* Nearby contract.Source: Oil & Gas Journal and Haver Analytics.24002200Figure 48.BAKER HUGHES ACTIVE RIG COUNT(units)24002200200018001600Total <strong>US</strong> (1883.0)Gas (318.0)Oil (1562.0)7/257/2520001800160014001400120012001000100080080060060040020007/25yardeni.com91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16Source: Baker Hughes Inc.4002000Page 25 / July 31, 2014 / <strong>US</strong> <strong>Economic</strong> <strong>Briefing</strong>: <strong>High</strong> <strong>Frequency</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong>Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
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