2010Wolverhampton’sCity StrategyPeople and Family Cluster Needs AnalysisData Working for the Draft further development of the City StrategyData for the further development of the City Strategy
Page2INTRODUCTIONThe People and Family Cluster Needs Analysis is one of four booklets to supportpartners and stakeholders in the development of the City Strategy and supportingPartnership implementation Plan. The other booklets are:Business Cluster Needs AnalysisCommunity Cluster Needs AnalysisPlace Cluster Needs AnalysisDuring the course of the next three months we will be developing and refining theinformation to reflect the emerging priorities in the implementation plan. Theintention is that when the Strategy and Implementation plan is finalised next spring,there is a concise evidence base that has a clear read across to the final plans, and isaccessible to all the city’s stakeholders.
Page3DEMOGRAHICS OF THE CITYAfter 15 years of falling, the population increased for the first time in 2008 and hasstabilised at its current rate. It is anticipated that this increase will be sustained insubsequent years. The increase is attributed to economic migration from the EU and to alesser extent people living longer combined with a small increase in births.Population of the City in 2009 1All people 238,500Males 118,000Females 120,500Mid-2008populationLivebirthsDeathsNaturalchangeNetmigration&otherchangesTotalchangeMid-2009population238.1 3.3 2.5 0.8 -0.4 0.4 238.5The population profile of Wolverhampton is broadly consistent with the West Midlandsregion (19% under 16; 61% of working age and 19% over 65 – but population decline isslightly slower – population projections for all of Western Europe highlight challenges of anageing society.The impact of the recession may be reducing the numbers of economic migrants to the City.All agesMid-2009Children0-15Working age16-64M/59FOlder people65M/60F and over238.5 46.2 145.7 46.6Working Age Population in 2009All aged 16-64 151,900Male aged 16-64 76,500Female aged 16-64 75,500Predicted population change in Wolverhampton1 Source for all: ONS, Mid-year population estimates
Page4The city’s population is predicted to grow only marginally by 2031 (to 247,000) but itscomposition will change significantly. Most increase is likely in the BME communities whowill constitute around one-third of the city’s population by 2026.Over the next five years there will be growth of 6-8% in three groups – the young, middleaged and old age as shown in the diagram below. The subsequent 15 years will see growthof over 30% in the 65+ population, increasing from 40,600 in 2010 to 53,100 by 2031. Thepopulation over 80 will grow by more than 50% in the next 20 years.Population by Age 2010-30Population by Ethnicity 2008-26ALL White Mixed Indian Pakistani OtherAsianBlack Other2008 239,000 178,500 7,300 32,050 4,500 3,100 11,950 1,7502016 239,900 171,800 8,800 34,200 6,100 4,250 12,850 2,0502026 241,800 163,600 11,150 36,150 8,550 5,900 14,200 2,400
Page6EMPLOYMENT AND WORKLESSNESSEmployment and Unemployment (April 2009-March 2010) 2All PeopleEconomicallyActiveWolverhampton(numbers)Wolverhampton(%)WestMidlands (%)108,300 71.6 75.6 76.5In Employment 92,900 61.3 68.5 70.3Employees 79,100 52.5 59.7 60.9Self-employed 13,300 8.5 8.3 9.0Unemployed(model-based) 3 14,400 13.4 9.3 7.9MalesEconomicallyActive59,700 78.5 82.3 82.7In Employment 50,300 65.9 73.0 75.2Employees 39,500 52.2 60.3 62.0Self-employed 10,200 13.0 12.2 12.8Unemployed 9,400 15.8 11.1 8.9FemalesEconomicallyActive48,600 64.7 68.9 70.3In Employment 42,700 56.7 64.0 65.5Employees 39,500 52.7 59.1 59.8Self-employed 3,100 3.9 4.4 5.2Unemployed 5,900 12.2 7.2 6.7GreatBritain (%)The employment rate in the City has fallen to 61.3% (September 2010). In 2007, it was66.4% and within a year had fallen to 64.5%. 4Employment impacts differently on different parts of the population. As the table belowshows 5 , in the City, BME employment rates are significantly higher than the region or BlackCountry.People with disabilities are significantly less likely to be employed and the white populationis less employed than elsewhere in the region.Wolverhampton West MidlandsWhite population 63.2% 70.9%Minority Ethnic Population 58.0% 53.6%Disabled People 31.3% 44.9%All aged 20-24 55.6% 60.2%2 Source: NOMIS3 % of economically active4 Source: NOMIS5 Source: DWP, Sept 2010 Employment by Population
Page7Since 1995, service sector employment had risen both absolutely and relatively from 64.8%of employee jobs (63,495) to 81.2% (84,400). The biggest increase came in PublicAdministration, Education and Health, which rose from 22,441 of jobs (22.9%) in 1995 to31,800 (30.7%) in 2008. Manufacturing employment fell from 29,680 (30.3%) to 14,600(14.0%) over the same period; since 2002 with an accelerating rate of decline. 6Economic Activity by Age 7Age Place 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 % PtChangeEngland and 68 67 67 66 66 64 -416-24 WalesWolverhampton 62 54 64 57 58 57 -5England and 84 84 85 85 85 85 124-49 WalesWolverhampton 81 81 81 80 79 81 0England and 66 67 67 68 68 68 250-64 WalesWolverhampton 60 65 62 63 61 64 4The rate for 16-24s was much lower than the national average in 2005, this gap with thenational average has widened between 2005 and 2010.The rate for 24-59s is also still below the national average and this gap is slightly widening.However for over 50s the gap between Wolverhampton and England and Wales is closing.Claimant CountDudley Sandwell Walsall W'tonWestMidlands EnglandSeptember 2005 3.3 4.7 3.8 4.8 3.0 2.3September 2006 3.7 5.2 4.7 5.9 3.4 2.5September 2007 3.1 4.4 3.8 4.9 3.0 2.2September 2008 3.4 4.7 4.3 5.5 3.4 2.5September 2009 6.1 7.9 7.5 8.2 5.6 4.2Throughout the 2005-09 period, the claimant count in the City was the highest in the BlackCountry and between 2008 and 2009 increased dramatically as the recession took hold. 8Impact of the RecessionThe recession has had the most severe impact on those areas with traditionally higher levelsof unemployment. The employment gap between priority neighbourhoods and the rest ofthe City has grown. Nevertheless, as the map of JSA claimants below shows, there are6 Source: NOMIS7 Economically Active means either in “employment or actively seeking employment” – this is taken from theAnnual Population Survey of residents. Source: GHK Presentation to Board, October 20108 Source: ONS - Claimant Count as % of Resident Working Age Population
Page8pockets of unemployment across the City, including Dovecotes and Warstones on the westof the City.The recession of the 1980s resulted (and is still resulting in) increased demand on publicservices: most obviously in health but also across the range of public services. The followingdiagram developed by the Social Exclusion Unit 9 illustrates the impact or threat ofunemployment on the individual and the potential impact on services:Unemployment LengthsThe following table 10 illustrates the situation in the Black Country regarding the age of thosewho are unemployed and the length of time they have been out of work:9 Social impacts of recession: The impact of job loss and job insecurity on social disadvantage. Social ExclusionTask Force, Cabinet Office (2009)10 Source: JCP, September 2010.
Page9Age/ Duration Numbers % of Total West Mids %18-24 12,720 29.3% 29.5%25-49 24,010 55.4% 55.3%50+ 6,570 15.2% 14.9%0-6 months 24,130 55.6% 58.6%6-12 months 8,610 19.9% 19.2%1-2 years 8,185 18.9% 16.1%2 years+ 2,435 12.8% 6.1%Impact on Jobs of CSRPrice Waterhouse Coopers have predicted that the West Midlands will lose a further 80,000jobs in the public and private sector or 3.6% of the total number of jobs in the region 11 . InWolverhampton, this would equate to a further 3,500 job losses although there is no reasonto suppose that all areas will be affected evenly.The report continues:“Whilst important, we also question whether the Regional Growth Fund (RGF).... will providea large enough incentive or access to funds to make a material difference and whether localauthorities and the newly created Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs) will have theresources, fiscal powers and capacity to mitigate the impact of cuts and promote growthlocally.”Estimated private sector output losses in 2014/15 due to reduced public sector demand 12SectorsEstimated gross outputloss (£bn at 2007 prices)Loss as % of grossoutput in sectorBusiness services 11.9 3.9Construction 10.6 5.1Manufacturing 9.3 2.0Transport and communications 3.2 1.9Distribution, hotels and catering 1.1 0.4Financial services 2.0 1.1Other sectors 8.3 1.5Total private sector 46.4 2.1The Wolverhampton economy has significant interest in the three sectors most likely to behit in the UK “as will be the UK aerospace sector given its high dependence on defencecontracts.”11 Source: http://www.ukmediacentre.pwc.com/imagelibrary/downloadMedia.ashx?MediaDetailsID=180212 Source: PwC analysis
Page10POVERTY IN WOLVERHAMPTONAccording to combined HMRC and DWP data from 2008 on which the Child PovertyIndicator (NI 116) is based, 17,360 or 30.8% of children and young people aged 0-19 in theCity are living in poverty 13 . However, if we use the combined total of children in worklesshouseholds together with those whose family is in receipt of working tax credit, the numbermay nearly double to over 30,000. 14 It should be noted that the latest data refers to 2008, atwhich point the full effect of the recession will not have been felt.The spread of poverty is unequal across the city. As the map demonstrates, although it isworst in Low Hill, Heathfield Park, Bilston East and Ettingshall, pockets of deprivation can befound in most of the City’s neighbourhoods.The maps for teenage conception, NEETs, lone parents, smoking-related illness, lifeexpectancy are all broadly the same.This illustrates the inter-connectedness of all these issues and their relationship to poverty.This relationship is both cyclical in terms of cause and effect and inter-generational in termsof impact.Disability and ageReasons for Being on Incapacity Benefits 1532% give poor mental health as the reason for being in receipt of incapacity benefits in theCity. Wolverhampton has by far the largest number of people in the Black Country who citedepression as the reason for being unable to work (2,704 out of 9,287).13 Source: Child Poverty Unit, released 2010.14 See page 10 for further information and ward breakdown15 DWP, 2008
Page11BENEFIT CLAIMANTS BY NEIGHBOURHOODThe following chart shows the spread of benefit claimants in 2009 across the City:3,0002,5002,000Jobseekers/All benefit claimants by ward1,5001,000500JobseekersallowanceclaimantsAll benefitclaimants0The following map shows the percentage of residents in receipt of benefits across the City ineach Lower Super Output Area:
Page12PROMOTINGPOSITIVEATTITUDES TOLEANING AND EDUCATION
Page13SKILLS IN WOLVERHAMPTONAround a quarter of the City’s population have no qualifications, although this has fallen(from 28% to 23%) between 2008 and 2009. Around 20% of the population have Level 4qualifications – this has fluctuated either side of this figure over the past ten years. In thelast year there have been significant increases in Level 2 and Level 3 qualifications as theimpressive improvements in schools and the College have begun to be picked up in theAnnual Household Survey. 16 The chart below shows how qualification levels in the City havechanged between 2004 and 2009.6050403020No QualificationsLevel 2Level 3Level 41002004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Many employers report they are struggling to address these skill gaps via recruitment fromthe labour market due to deficiencies in the skills of job applicants. The most common causeof these skill shortages is a lack of adequate technical and practical skills among applicantsalthough many were also due to a lack of softer generic skills such as customer handling,written and oral communication and team working.Encouragingly the proportion of the region’s workforce being trained by their employer hascontinued to increase despite the recession. However it is notable that people working inthe public sector are much more likely to be trained by their employer and the proportionsare far lower in traditional private sector industries such as engineering & manufacturingand in lower value added private sector activities such as hotels & catering and retail &wholesale distribution. 1716 Source: NOMIS17 Source: West Midland Regional Observatory
The diagram below shows regional skill shortages reported by employers in the WestMidlands.Page14
Page15SCHOOL AND COLLEGE ATTAINMENTEarly indicators for 2010 show that around 52% of pupils received at least five grades at A*-C, including English and Maths, compared to 43% in 2009 and 30% in 2007. Meanwhile, thenumber of pupils who received a total of five or more grades at A*-C, though not necessarilyincluding either English or Maths, is expected to be over 70%. Again, these figures are up onlast year. Wolverhampton is the highest performing area in the Black Country.At Key Stage 2 (end of primary) the percentage of pupils achieving Level 4 or above in theCity were as follows:90.0080.0070.00Level 4 + in EnglishLevel 4 + in MathsLevel 4 + in Science60.002005 2006 2007 2008 2009‘A’ Level results still lag behind the rest of the country although the gap has narrowed overthe last five years.NEET numbers continue to fall with the “hard-to-reach” making up an increasing proportionof those without employment, education or training 18 :No. in2009% Of TotalNEETTeenage Parent 10 2.0In Care/Care Leaver 13 2.7LDD 73 14.9Supervised By YOT 44 9.0Two thirds of NEETs live in four areas of the City 19 :18 Source: Prospects19 Source: Prospects
Page16PostcodeNumber% of Total NEETGroupWV10 (Low Hill) 152 31.0WV14 (Bilston) 89 18.2WV11 (Heath Town,East Park) 60 12.2WV4 (Blakenhall,Ettingshall) 35 7.1Teenage conceptions rates in 2008 fell by 20% compared to the previous year. In 2008, thehighest rates of teenage conceptions were in Ettingshall, Bilston East and Ettingshall but asthe map shows, the rates were generally higher in the east of the City: the same areaswhere there are most NEETS.Entry to HE
Page18Learning disability trendsImpact of population change for services 20• The learning disability population will rise by an estimated 14% by 2021 (approximately900 adults with a diagnosis of moderate to severe learning disability are known in the City)• The number of younger people with severe disability is increasing by around 1% perannum• There is an increased life expectancy of people with a learning disability, with greaternumbers living over 65 years of age. Chronic conditions associated with ageing, includingconditions such as Alzheimer’s disease are now being seen• Carers - significant numbers of adults with a learning disability live at home with oldercarers, who themselves may have health needsPhysical disability trends• 4,123 people aged 18-64, and 427 children under the age of 18 are currently on thedisability register.• The ONS Regional Summary for 2007 showed that the incidence of visual impairment willrise from 2008 to 2025 by 48% in the West Midlands because of ageing.• Visually impaired people have a frequency of falling that is twice that of normal sightedpeople and they also suffer from depression at a rate of 13.6 % compared to 4.7% in peoplewith normal sight.Mental Health trends• 1 in 6 adults experience mental health problems during their lifetime, and rates are knownto be higher in areas of deprivation. Wolverhampton’s Mental Health Strategy 2006-2011estimates that around 68,000 people will experience mental health problems,approximately 29% of the population• Low level mental illness is more prevalent than elsewhere within the general population inthe UK. This is supported by the fact that 5,615 people (42% of claims compared to theregional average of 39.5%) are currently claiming Incapacity Benefit or Severe DisablementAllowance on the grounds of mental health incapacity• The 2006-7 PCT Mental Health Equity Audit found use of services much higher amongstBlack groups than among White, Asian or mixed populations• Older people with mental health problems are predicted to rise by 10% over the next 10yearsSocial Inclusion trends20 Taken from a report by the Director of Public Health to Health Scrutiny Panel, 2009
Page19• Incidence of domestic violence reported to the police is increasing and impacts on adultsafeguarding, and demand for temporary accommodation• There is a strong link between domestic violence and the development of mental healthproblems in the victim and their children• Numbers of homeless people applying for assistance has increased substantially in recentyears, the majority of applications are from families with children• Homelessness is often linked with a number of other factors, including chaotic lifestyles,drug and alcohol misuse, domestic violence, mental ill health, unemployment and offending• HIV/AIDS is increasing predominately in the 25-39 years age group, creating additionaldemand for supported housing, carer related support and palliative care.Projected Demand for ServicesBased on changing demographics, social care activity across referrals, assessments andservice interventions in Wolverhampton is predicted to increase by approximately 10%between 2007 and 2017. This growth in demand will be mitigated to a degree by factorssuch as planned improvements in the provision of information and advice; use of selfassessment tools, self directed support and individual budgets currently underdevelopment; provision of non care managed community support networks; increases in thenumbers of people who will potentially be classed as self-funding in terms of meetingdemand for services.
Page20HEALTH AND WELL-BEINGHealth inequalities remain high in the City despite significant recent improvements in infantmortality and teenage conception rates. The City is still within the bottom 20% of areas forlife expectancy.For men the gap ranges from 70.7 years in Bilston East to 78.0 years in TettenhallWightwick, and for women 76.5 years in Ettingshall to 81.9 in Tettenhall Wightwick.The biggest killer in the City is heart and circulatory disease. The map below shows wherethis is most prevalent:Infant MortalityReducing infant mortality (death of children under 28 days old) is one of the highest publichealth priorities in Wolverhampton. Deaths in the young make most contribution to theamount of Years of Life Lost (YLL), tackling this issue would have the biggest potential ofimproving the life expectancy in the city. In Wolverhampton there were 116 infant deaths in2001-2005, equivalent to nearly 9,000 years of life lost. If the rates of infant deaths could bereduced to match the national average, this would save about 600 life years each year.
Page21There is a strong correlation between deprivation and infant mortality. St Peter’s andFallings Park wards have the highest rates of infant mortality in the city, as well as beingamongst the most deprived. In these wards 10 or more babies per 1,000 live births diebefore they are 1 year old.Child obesityNational and local obesity rates are a major concern, particularly the impact this issue mayhave on future health services for several conditions like diabetes, CHD and bowel andbreast cancer. Projections suggest that by 2025, 47% of men and 36% of women in the UKwill be obese.In Wolverhampton, childhood obesity is of particular concern. Given this, over the past twoyears, height and weight data of pupils has been collected at Reception (4 to 5 years of age)
Page22and Year 6 pupils (10 to 11 year olds). The results for 2007-08 show that obesity in the city ishigher than the national average for these groups, with the gap between the national figurebeing biggest for those in Year 6. The biggest increases were found amongst Asian andmixed ethnic groups.The maps above identify the rates of pupils classed as obese across the city, showing howthis problem is more prevalent in priority wards, even though high percentages can also befound in the more affluent areas.SmokingThe map below shows the rates of people quitting smoking after 4 weeks. Even though the prioritywards show the highest rates of quitters, these wards also have the highest number of smokers andtherefore of lung cancer-related deaths.AlcoholWolverhampton has one of the highest rates of deaths arising from alcohol consumption in the country,and this number is growing. The increase is more pronounced in areas of deprivation, with the fivehighest rates belonging to priority wards. (see map below)Alcohol intoxication is strongly associated with suicide, violent crime, domestic violence, accidents andrisky sexual behaviour. It also has a major impact on the economy as it is one of the biggest causes fortime off work. The key challenge is promoting a sensible drinking culture that reduces violence andimproves health.According to the Department of Health, chronic liver disease including cirrhosis was responsible for 159deaths in the city between 2005 and 2007. This represents a gap with England of 16.8% for males and
10% for females. Wolverhampton also has significantly higher rates for alcohol-related crime, violenceand sexual offences compared to national averages.Page23
Page24CRIME AND COMMUNITY SAFETYThere have been small improvements in how safe people in the City but nearly two-thirds ofresidents do not feel safe after dark 21 .However, the percentage of residents who think local public services are working well tomake the City safe is on the lowest 10% nationally 22 and nor do residents think that thepolice and council understand the issues as they relate to anti-social behaviour.Nevertheless, the City performs well (top quintile) on resident involvement in tackling crimeand anti-social behaviour.In terms of actual crime, apart from robbery, all reported crime continues to fall in the City.100908070605040302010088.130.317.4 13.5 10.6 7.6 7.33.6 3.5 3.3 0.8 0.3Wolverhampton crime rate per 1000 population by type of crime 2321 Source: City Council Perception Survey22 Source: Audit Commission, One Place23 Source: West Midlands Police, 2010
Page25Jul-09Aug-09Sep-09Oct-09Nov-09Dec-09Jan-10Feb-10Mar-10Apr-10May-10Jun-10Jul-10Aug-10In terms of neighbourhoods, the following chart shows the most up-to-date situation 24 :180.0160.0140.0120.0100.080.060.040.020.00.0Neighbourhood crime rates per 1000 populationAug 08 - Jul 09 Aug 09-Jul 10Against the city-wide fall, increases in recorded crime have taken place in Bilston East, HeathTown, Blakenhall, Park, East Park and Oxley in the past twelve months.24.0023.5023.0022.5022.0021.5021.0020.5020.0019.5019.00Series1 Annual RateSeries2 Target RateSerious acquisitive crime has increased significantly since the turn of the year. There may bea number of reasons for this including the impact of the recession and the high price ofmetals.24 Source: West Midlands Police