Space Weather Effects on Human Health - ESA Space Weather Web ...

esa.spaceweather.net

Space Weather Effects on Human Health - ESA Space Weather Web ...

Bryn Jones 1,2,3

1. SolarMetrics Limited

ong>Spaceong> ong>Weatherong> ong>Effectsong> on

Human Health

2. Mullard ong>Spaceong> Science Laboratory

3. Virgin Atlantic Airways Limited

ESA ong>Spaceong> ong>Weatherong> Workshop:

Developing a European ong>Spaceong> ong>Weatherong> Service Network

Aircrew are more likely to die from cancer due

• Legislation

• Dose limits

• Research

• Medical Studies

• Conclusions

(3-5 November 2003, ESTEC, Noordwijk, The Netherlands) ESA ong>Spaceong> ong>Weatherong> Workshop: Developing a European ong>Spaceong> ong>Weatherong> Service Network (3 -5 November 2003, ESTEC, Noordwijk, The Netherlands)

to increased radiation exposure during flight

than they are of dying in an air accident.

ESA ong>Spaceong> ong>Weatherong> Workshop: Developing a European ong>Spaceong> ong>Weatherong> Service Network (3 -5 November 2003, ESTEC, Noordwijk, The Netherlands)

Legislation

• EU Directive – Aircrew

– Assessment of exposure

– Adjust crew scheduling (if required)

– Inform & Educate

– Apply Article 10 to Pregnant crew

ESA ong>Spaceong> ong>Weatherong> Workshop: Developing a European ong>Spaceong> ong>Weatherong> Service Network (3 -5 November 2003, ESTEC, Noordwijk, The Netherlands)

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Dose Limits

• ICRP Dose Limits

– 100mSv per 5 year period

– Max 50mSv in any 1 year

– 20mSv per year

– 1mSv per year (Pregnant crew)

– 6mSv (Action Level)

ALARA

As Low As Reasonably Achievable within social and

economic constraints

ESA ong>Spaceong> ong>Weatherong> Workshop: Developing a European ong>Spaceong> ong>Weatherong> Service Network (3 -5 November 2003, ESTEC, Noordwijk, The Netherlands)

Future Air Transport

Business Jets, Airliners

Commercial Airliners

ESA ong>Spaceong> ong>Weatherong> Workshop: Developing a European ong>Spaceong> ong>Weatherong> Service Network (3 -5 November 2003, ESTEC, Noordwijk, The Netherlands)

Projected global dose rate at 35,000 ft

ESA ong>Spaceong> ong>Weatherong> Workshop: Developing a European ong>Spaceong> ong>Weatherong> Service Network (3 -5 November 2003, ESTEC, Noordwijk, The Netherlands)

Dose Limits

• Doses from Galactic Cosmic Radiation

– Background sea level ~2.2mSv/yr (UK)

– Average Annual Occupational Exposure (UK)

• Short Haul ~ 2mSv/yr

• Long Haul ~ 4mSv/yr

• Doses from Solar Flares (Dyer et al)

– September 1989 2mSv

– February 1956 10mSv

ESA ong>Spaceong> ong>Weatherong> Workshop: Developing a European ong>Spaceong> ong>Weatherong> Service Network (3 -5 November 2003, ESTEC, Noordwijk, The Netherlands)

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Dose Rate (µSv/hr)

H (Km)

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

42kft

Background 39kftScience

0

0

10:48 12:00 13:12 14:24 15:36 16:48 18:00 19:12 20:24 21:36 22:48

14

42kft

Date

Goose Bay

Actual flight

39kft Actual flight

9

0

10:48 12:00 13:12 14:24 15:36 16:48 18:00 19:12 20:24 21:36 22:48

Date

ESA ong>Spaceong> ong>Weatherong> Workshop: Developing a European ong>Spaceong> ong>Weatherong> Service Network (3 -5 November 2003, ESTEC, Noordwijk, The Netherlands)

Medical Studies

250

LHR – LAX Sep 89

Rigidity

• European ESCAPE mortality study

• US Cabin Crew Breast study

• Swedish

• Icelandic

ESA ong>Spaceong> ong>Weatherong> Workshop: Developing a European ong>Spaceong> ong>Weatherong> Service Network (3 -5 November 2003, ESTEC, Noordwijk, The Netherlands)

200

150

100

50

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

Neutron %Inc

Ec (MeV)

Research

• MSSL-Virgin In-flight Monitoring

• EU funded - EURADOS, DOSMAX

ESA SOARS SDA

– UK CRAG SPE sub-group

• Other Projects Worldwide

ESA ong>Spaceong> ong>Weatherong> Workshop: Developing a European ong>Spaceong> ong>Weatherong> Service Network (3 -5 November 2003, ESTEC, Noordwijk, The Netherlands)

Conclusions

• Potential Health Risks

• So far, inconclusive medical data

• Poor SEP & other SW event doses

• Inaccurate Flight Data is used

• Permanent installation of Monitors

• Real-time Monitoring

• Discriminatory Legislation

ESA ong>Spaceong> ong>Weatherong> Workshop: Developing a European ong>Spaceong> ong>Weatherong> Service Network (3 -5 November 2003, ESTEC, Noordwijk, The Netherlands)

3


QUESTIONS

ESA ong>Spaceong> ong>Weatherong> Workshop: Developing a European ong>Spaceong> ong>Weatherong> Service Network (3 -5 November 2003, ESTEC, Noordwijk, The Netherlands)

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