Fire in JULES- first steps
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Fire in JULES- first steps

Introduction(and confessions of a metrologist)© Crown copyright Met Office

Wildfire: The motivation slideAtmosphere:•Temperature•Humidity•Wind•Precipitation•LightningHumans:•IgnitionsLand Surface:•Veg cover•Veg moisture© Crown copyright Met OfficeAtmosphere:•Gas & aerosol•EnergyHumans:•Food•Air Quality•Financial•Quality of Life•Other impactsLand Surface:•Veg cover

I often say that when you can measure what you arespeaking about, and express it in numbers, you knowsomething about it; but when you cannot express it innumbers, your knowledge is of a meagre andunsatisfactory kind; it may be the beginning of knowledge,but you have scarcely, in your thoughts, advanced to thestage of science, whatever the matter may be.Lord Kelvin, 1883AreaAmount burnedNumberCrop lossEmissionsWildfiresFinancial impact© Crown copyright Met OfficeDurationRate of spreadRiskLoss of lifeQuality of LifeIntensityPlant mortalityEcosystem Impact

Anatomy of some fire models© Crown copyright Met Office

Canadian Fire Weather Index•6-component index•3 moisture elementsrepresenting differentfuel types•Daily wetting &drying phases•2 fuel consumptionelements•Final intensityrelatedindexFFMCDMCTimelag(days)2/312Water cap.(mm)0.615Nom. fueldepth(cm)1.27Nom. fuelload(kg/m 2 )0.255•Optimised for pineforestsDC521001825© Crown copyright Met Office

McArthur Forest Fire DangerIndexFFDI= 1.275D0.987eTmaxH min W− + ave29.5858 28.9855 42.735D=0.1913.52( I + 104)( N + 1)( 1) 1.5N + + R −11.5•Drought factor modified by T (max) , %RH (min) and average windspeed•Accumulation of drought considers N days since R amount ofrain with a soil moisture deficit I (in top ~80 cm)© Crown copyright Met Office

Nesterov Index• Accumulates until daily precip > 3 mm, thenresets to zero• Daily increment depends on daily meandewpoint and temperature© Crown copyright Met Office

SPITFIRE• Builds on Nesterovindex• Process-basedmodel• Close links tovegetation schemein LSMFrom Thonicke et. al. (2010) Biogeosciences, 7, 1991-2011doi:10.5194/bg-7-1991-2010© Crown copyright Met Office

JULES Implementation© Crown copyright Met Office

UnderlyingarchitectureStandard offlinemodelsStandard onlinemodelsEvolution &Development© Crown copyright Met Office•Connects JULES to architecture-agnosticscience code•Easily extendable for new models•Two FORTRAN modules:•FIRE- memory and calling control•METSTATS- management of data required byscience code•Encapsulated modules- readily usableoutside JULES•Canadian FWI•McArthur FFDI (Australian)•Nesterov Index (Russian)•SPITFIRE implementation in JULES•In collaboration with Exeter University•Builds on Nesterov Index•Can also be used without vegetation feedbacks initially•Better integration of fire processes with LSMparameters (eg fuel moisture vs soil moisture)

Initial Results© Crown copyright Met Office

Single Site Runs• 42 fluxnet sites (PALS sites)• 2 examples for now• JULES at version UM8.4 (ie v3.2 & a bit)• Plot raw index and risk phrase categories (egLow, Moderate, High etc)© Crown copyright Met Office

Loobos•Seasonal cycle OK•2003- interesting details•Spring peak•Max values© Crown copyright Met Office

Loobos•Seasonal cycle OK•2003- interesting details•Spring peak•Max values© Crown copyright Met Office

Amplero•Seasonal cycle OK•2005- divergence betweenall 3 indices© Crown copyright Met Office

Amplero•Seasonal cycle OK•2005- divergence betweenall 3 indices© Crown copyright Met Office

Point Runs• Grossly similar behaviour between indices• Many differences in the detail• Sensitivity to specific conditions?• Case studies needed• Point runs too short to build climatologies© Crown copyright Met Office

WFDEI Global Runs• 0.5deg, 30 year dataset• JULES v3.2 fire branch• No TRIFFID• Mask out all gridboxes > 50% soil• Shade according to risk phrases• Colouration similar, but not identical© Crown copyright Met Office

© Crown copyright Met Office

WFDEI Fire RiskClimatologies• All 3 models show similar gross patterns• Any show-stopping differences for climate studies?• Several interesting high-risk areas• Sahel, Australia, Amazon, sub-Saharan Africa, USA,Mediterranean Europe & Africa© Crown copyright Met Office

Conclusions• Difficult to compare different arbitrary scales• Linear? Co-linear?!• Indices generally agree on climate timescales• Exact model choice not critical for CR?• Indices differ in day-to-day site-specific details• Care needed for NWP• Structure in place for more models &development© Crown copyright Met Office

Future Work• Get risk models operational in UM• Comparison/validation• Operationally• Climate research• SPITFIRE© Crown copyright Met Office

Questions and (0)1392 884516© Crown copyright Met Office

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