ETCS planning for the future - UIC
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ETCS planning for the future - UIC

UIC ERTMS Conference 2004ERTMS Planning for the FutureM. PottendorferAlcatel TSD AustriaDecember 2004

Business Aspects> ERTMS – General aspects> MigrationPresentation Outline> ERTMS benefits Railways’ profitabilityUIC ERTMS Conference 2004 – Alcatel - 2All Rights Reserved © 2004, Alcatel

ContextEuropean Rail Transport:Business Aspects• Extension of EU principle of liberalized flow of goods andpassengers to an enlarged Europe.• Railway infrastructure is an essential part of the coreTrans-European Transport network (~ 100.000 km)• 2020 Forecasts : strong growth in EU transport demands,particularly for freight (68% within EU15 - 94% within CEEC)> Challenges• Stop continuous decline of rail market share ( -66% in 30 years).• Meet the required timeframes, i.e. start acting now (typical railproject duration 10 to 15 years).• Speed-up European railway initiatives implementation.UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 – Alcatel - 3All Rights Reserved © 2004, Alcatel

European Rail Transport:Business Aspects> Opportunities• Ever increasing traffic congestions requires modal rebalancing(road, rail, air, water).• Railways offer potential for a superior transport modeparticularly as compared to road traffic.• Promising business perspectives specially for international long-haulrail freight transport.> Foundations• Europe is the competence continent for rail transportand drives the evolution of world railways standards.• Europe promotes European Rail Transport Management System(ERTMS) in an attempt to overcome traditional deficiencies.• ERTMS enables borderless competitive railways in Europe andrepresents a tremendous opportunity for railways industries as apotential de facto world standard ( cf “Model case GSM” ).UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 – Alcatel - 4All Rights Reserved © 2004, Alcatel

Rail Transport Business:Service Chain, Revenues, Costsgoods, passengerslogistic services€ per ton-kmor per p-km(revenues)Service Chaintrain froma to b operationrolling stockoperationtransport slotdispatchingsignallingroute / train controltrainoperationcostsInfrastructure fees€ per km of slotinfrastructureoperation costsETCSw/o Cab SignallingSignalling / ETCSERTMSrails, points,catenaryUIC ERTMS Conference 2004 – Alcatel - 5All Rights Reserved © 2004, Alcatel

European Rail Transport Infrastructure:Business Vision… competitive railways, regaining transport market share!> Reduce Costs• focus on life cycle costs (OPEX/CAPEX considerations)• go for more unattended operations• efficiency and effectiveness of the rail transport system> Increase Sales• sell more transport slots – attract and run more trains• provide attractive paths for freight / passenger operators• with the right quality of service• go internationalUIC ERTMS Conference 2004 – Alcatel - 6All Rights Reserved © 2004, Alcatel

Challenges: Freight Aspects> Road and Rail Freight(non-local) forecastsq ~ 75% increase till 2020q Rail freight share vs. roadat a constant ratio of 40%q Assumption: (at least some of the)proactive measures as defined bythe EU van Miert group happen> Freight Businessq Worth today at least 40 G€/yearq Projected to grow to more than 100G€/year by 2020q The above growth rate is worth atleast a surplus of ~ 1.4 G€ per yearfor rail freight businessq Rail freight business is international180016001400120010008006004002000rail freight [Gtonkm]road freight [Gtonkm]Source: DG TREN Study (2003) “Scenarios,traffic forecast and analysis of TEN corridors”UIC 2001: EU statistical freighttravel distance ~ 267 km20002020UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 – Alcatel - 7All Rights Reserved © 2004, Alcatel

Business Aspects> ERTMS – General aspects> MigrationPresentation Outline> ERTMS benefits Railways’ profitabilityUIC ERTMS Conference 2004 – Alcatel - 8All Rights Reserved © 2004, Alcatel

Historical Rail Market Barriers: Route/TrainControlEBICAB 700/1000EBICAB 900ATB/ATB-NGAWSTBLTVM/KVBASFA/LZBZUB 123KHPINDUSI/LZBINDUSI/LZBEVMEBICAB 700SIGNUM/ZUB121BACC/RSDDUIC ERTMS Conference 2004 – Alcatel - 9All Rights Reserved © 2004, Alcatel

Rail Main Lines:Capacity, Interoperability, Speed> Investing into civil works• additional tracks• separate tracks for freight and passenger traffic• station layout optimisation for dispatching efficiency> Investing into route- and train control operations• modernise interlockings, improve fixed block grid• fit the rolling stock fleet with appropriate onboard systems• support a telematics approach to traffic dispatching> On the basis of ERTMS/ETCS guidelines and specifications• fostering interoperability (for train control and train radio)• ensuring safe and dependable train traffic operation• yielding capacity increases when properly appliedelectronicsversusconcreteUIC ERTMS Conference 2004 – Alcatel - 10All Rights Reserved © 2004, Alcatel

Improved Rail Main Lines capacity:„electronics instead of concrete“> The Swiss comparison analysisq investing into civil works (“concrete”)versusq investing into ERTMS/ETCS route- and train control (“electronics”)> Yields results strongly in favour of “electronics”q at equal capacity improvements, “electronics” costs less than 25%(and typically half of that on average) of the investment necessary for“concrete” solutionsq electronics investment is possible for existing and newly built networksq electronics investment can materialise faster and pays back earlierq with the standardised ERTMS/ETCS solutions, the “electronics” to beinvested in is defined, available, and more and more proven in useUIC ERTMS Conference 2004 – Alcatel - 11All Rights Reserved © 2004, Alcatel

European Rail Transport - ERTMS InitiativeSignallingETCSTelecommunicationsGSM-REuroptirailsTrafficManagementOther Legacy/NewSystemsAn Integrated TelematicsBackbone across EuropeUIC ERTMS Conference 2004 – Alcatel - 12All Rights Reserved © 2004, Alcatel

A view beyond European Borders> International ERTMS/ETCS related Activities• Project and Tendering Activities• e.g. Korea, India, China> Motivation• Increased capacity• Increased safety• Increased speed> Why ERTMS?• Established Signalling Technology• Defined & high safety standards• Economies of scale due to bigger market and standardisationUIC ERTMS Conference 2004 – Alcatel - 13All Rights Reserved © 2004, Alcatel

Railway Challenges: opportunity assessment> UIC Position Paper (Leipzig 11.12.2003)r Dr. Peter Winter, „Implementing the European Train Control System ETCS inEurope Survey of ongoing projectsShort-term opportunities for European Rail Corridors (timeframe 2008)r Discusses route- and train control legacy situation for main operators inEuroper Provides concept overview, cost/price aspects, migration strategies, short andmid term perspectives, assessment of some important corridorsaConcludes:ETCS Level 1 prevails in all 7 analysed conventional corridors, with acomplementary role for Level 2 in 1 out of these 7 projectsETCS Level 2 dominates for the analysed high speed/high capacity corridorswith complementary chances for Level 1 in 3 out of 4 projectsð Go for ERTMS/ETCS now!UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 – Alcatel - 14All Rights Reserved © 2004, Alcatel

Some Rail Main Lines and the ERTMS/ETCSRationaleUIC Implementing the European Train Control System, Leipzig, 12/2003UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 – Alcatel - 15All Rights Reserved © 2004, Alcatel

Business Aspects> ERTMS – General aspects> MigrationPresentation Outline> ERTMS benefits Railways’ profitabilityUIC ERTMS Conference 2004 – Alcatel - 16All Rights Reserved © 2004, Alcatel

Railway Challenges: the years ahead> European Railway Migration PeriodrIn the timeframe of many identified railway priority projects,infrastructure and rolling stock will be gradually upgraded to enable anETCS mode of operationrBasically this constitutes a migration period of ca. 10-15 years fromnow onrIn the same timeframe, important legacy systems will still be used andgradually outphasedrETCS Level 1 complementary to Level 2 serves the migration phase as itis independent of the train radio system and allows for mixed traffic ofequipped and non-fitted trains while still aiming at the sameERTMS/ETCS objectivesrThe available commercial offering ETCS L1 and L2 of several supplierscan be used as a leverage to energise the ERTMS expansionUIC ERTMS Conference 2004 – Alcatel - 17All Rights Reserved © 2004, Alcatel

ERTMS / ETCS Infrastructure:Application Segments and Migration ScenariosRadio InfrastructureGSM-Rtrain controlGSM-Rtrain radioLegacyradioETCS Level 12ETCS Level 10ETCS Level 1Interlocking(IXL) as isETCS Level 2 ETCS Level 2ETCS Level 1 ETCS Level 13ETCS Level 1ETCS Level 1IXL + ETCS i/fInterlocking Infrastructure14ETCS Level 1ETCS Level 1IXL + ETCS I/f+ FB densingUIC ERTMS Conference 2004 – Alcatel - 18All Rights Reserved © 2004, Alcatel

ERTMS / ETCS System Constituents:Interfaces and Lifetimes> 25 yearsfield elementsfield elementssubsystem lifetimeCTCInterlocking (IXL)BaliseControl•Fixed block scheme•Cab signalling•Radio: voice & dataETCS Level 1ERTMSETCS Level 2ERTMStrainERTMS controltrain radioInterlocking (IXL)RadioBlock ControlCTCEuro-Radio7-10 yearsGSM-RradiobackboneUIC ERTMS Conference 2004 – Alcatel - 19All Rights Reserved © 2004, Alcatel

ERTMS Railway Transport Mode:Migration and Interfaces> Fixed block scheme: remains - for the coming years key to railway futurethe dominating signalling principle in rail main lines signalling also withERTMS/ETCS; field element control and interlocking thus continue to playtheir known roles, mostly with established/unchanged interfaces> Radio-based Train Control: with ETCS Level 2, apart from Euro-Radio,interfaces arise due to RBC – IXL – CTC interactions, mostly new and nonstandard; towards the lineside signalling the above statements apply> Paradigm shift: cab signalling eventually harmonising train operationswhile yet a variety of differing underlying signalling principles persist> Telecom – Signalling life-time incoherence: the largely varyingproduct life cycles of standard signalling and off-the shelf telecomequipment require thorough product migration and obsolescence strategiesto actually materialise economic and operational benefitsUIC ERTMS Conference 2004 – Alcatel - 20All Rights Reserved © 2004, Alcatel

ERTMS Railway Transport Mode:Fleet MigrationPossible Modes of Train Operation:AchievableCapacity Gainlow medium highETCS Level 1,Lineside SignalsETCS Level 1,Lineside SignalsETCS Level 1,Lineside signalsETCS Level 1,Lineside Signals(a) ETCS Level 2,(no Lineside Signals)(b) ETCS Level 1,few Lineside Signalslow medium full% of fleet fitted (i.e. migration years ahead)UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 – Alcatel - 21All Rights Reserved © 2004, Alcatel

Business Aspects> ERTMS – General aspects> MigrationPresentation Outline> ERTMS benefits Railways’ profitabilityUIC ERTMS Conference 2004 – Alcatel - 22All Rights Reserved © 2004, Alcatel

Fee revenues(relative units)352 k€Infrastructure fees and train headway1 min train headway reductionworth ~ 33 k€ / year and km1,000,750,500,25176 k€3 6 121 min train headway reductionworth ~ 11 k€ / year and km88 k€Example fee: 2 € / km of tracka annual revenues per track km:44 k€Avg train headway [min]4 5 8 10 12 152024UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 – Alcatel - 23All Rights Reserved © 2004, Alcatel

On ERTMS/ETCS Commercial Justification (a)> Viewpoint infrastructure provider:r business is to run (more) trainsr by offering interoperable networkr open to international usager invests to increase capacity / speed (wherenecessary) and to lower his OPEX costs> Achieves revenuesr selling transport slots (regularly / on demand)r by operating effectively and efficientlyr additional services for rail transport salesUIC ERTMS Conference 2004 – Alcatel - 24All Rights Reserved © 2004, Alcatel

ERTMS/ETCS infrastructure upgrade CAPEXsituationsETCS Level 1 GSM-R ETCS Level 2(C)DecentralisedCentralised(C)Centralised(a)+(b)+FB impr.Decentralised(B)Decentralised(b) IXL plus ETCS i/f(A)(a) Interlocking (IXL) as isGSM-RtraincontrolGSM-Rtrainradio(B)RBC+TSSBalisesRBC+TSSBalises(a)+(b)+FB impr.(b) IXL plus ETCS i/f(a) Interlocking (IXL) as isUIC ERTMS Conference 2004 – Alcatel - 25All Rights Reserved © 2004, Alcatel

On ERTMS/ETCS Commercial Justification (b)> Viewpoint rolling stock operator:r business is to transport (more) passengers / goodsr faster / at lower costsr internationally / throughout Europer invests because of regulations, to pay less slot fees …> Achieves revenuesr selling passenger-km and ton-kmr with a related quality of serviceUIC ERTMS Conference 2004 – Alcatel - 26All Rights Reserved © 2004, Alcatel

ERTMS/ETCS onboard upgrade CAPEXsituationsETCS Level IMMIETCS Level IIMMIGSM-REVCJUREVCJURTIUTIUBTMSDMUSTM(optional)BTMSDMUSTM(optional)Upgrade: add radio module, exchange Software!Each Level II Loco must be able to run on a Level I network, too!UIC ERTMS Conference 2004 – Alcatel - 27All Rights Reserved © 2004, Alcatel

Summary and Conclusion:Efficient and Competitive Railways> ERTMS/ETCS Operation: the European key to regain/improve marketshare for High Speed and Conventional rail traffic (passenger / freight)> Value for Money: electronic instead of concrete outperforms typicalbrute force investment into rail civil works at least a factor of 4;business cases are attractive for infrastructure and train operators> Fostering Migration:• „right mix choice“ of ETCS L1 & L2 infrastructure, as both support ERTMSinteroperability and safety, provide for capacity and speed enhancements• phased investments to allow for a migration period for fitting networkinfrastructure and fleet provide an optimal return on investment• evolution – no revolution – considering time frames, ERTMS-affected infrastructure(~ 100.000 km TEN-T network), rolling stock (~ 35.000 vehicles)> Competence Continent Europe: ERTMS products are mature andavailable, roll-out can be done now and quickly, at competitive pricesUIC ERTMS Conference 2004 – Alcatel - 28All Rights Reserved © 2004, Alcatel ERTMS Conference 2004 – Alcatel - 29All Rights Reserved © 2004, Alcatel

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